the spotlight on issues that matter more hunger food security oppression fashion i feel. i'm not against going to achieve so much more leafy jobs and i think people have to be a concrete solutions my name is on mcclatchy about an hour working together. alone a very warm welcome indeed to quadriga coming soon from the hearts of burley and of this week the focus is on the dangerous standoff between iran and the u.s. in the persian gulf where each side is accusing the other of aggression tension rose in july when iran seems the british tanker the u.s. and the u.k. are both stepping up their military presence in the region but europe or at least

continental europe is refusing to get on board of the u.s. led naval mission and is instead continuing to put its face in the nuclear deal struck with iran in 2015 which president trump withdrew america from last year. so our question this week here on quadriga is iran crisis europe on the sidelines and to discuss that question i'm joined here in the studio by early for toller nature of the middle east expert with think tanks like the brookings institution and the german council on foreign relations argues that the big challenge is to transcend to equally simplistic perceptions of the islamic republic europe's tendency towards glorification of washington's palm shoulder full demonetization also with us is alan posner a regular commentator for the bergen based daily. he believes that europe is on the front line of iran's aggression if we choose appeasement he says we will pay dearly

for cowardice and a very warm welcome to america how a man who's a business journalist with another berlin daily to target sites on all the taps is it's also notable recount argues that the oil price is not rising the economic indicators suggest that there is no real middle east crisis on the horizon. i'm very surprised by that you know this summer so much and so much evidence of the situation is tense and gets intensive and you're right to monitor it goes so it's all going to blow over sometime very soon well i'm not saying that the markets are right they might perhaps they are too lazy to recognize the danger but it is interesting that in the middle of such upheaval politically there is so much. calm when it comes to the markets and. apparently the traders think that there's nothing going to happen because otherwise the uprise would rise

because 90 percent of all the middle east oil in the gulf region and oil is being transported through the strait of how well apparently they don't really want to say to all germans who are talking about a sense of deja vu they're talking about the provocation the counter provoking. the verifiable claims that are being made by each side of us there saying that it feel so much like 2003 and the gulf war back then yes probably about the you know the biggest mistake ever made by the us in this region was exactly this war against iraq and i can't imagine them repeating this very big mistake because by this drawing that iraq base somehow pushed iran into the position and has now as i don't really think that the americans that are keen on having another war going and. last point is the problem really is that so many conflicts he's got a conflict with china going on he's got a conflict with his own the fed you know it every day there's

a new conflict so it's very hard to somehow. think it's very serious note thank you very seriously on the phone told on the job the international crisis group has made its contribution it's come out with a drastic you'd have to say assessment of what's going on let me just quote from it it says it's a little bounce averting the middle east's 1914 moments and says that the situation is reminiscent of tensions on the eve of world war one. strong stuff what do you make of it well 1st of all i didn't really read the report and usually the publications of the international crisis group are quite solid but i'm not sure if this is struggle comparison is correct because if we for example compare the situation today in the region with dots of indeed eve of the us invasion of iraq we see that geopolitically speaking there is no comparison whatsoever because iran is much stronger in the region of course the us military and a lot of actors in the region do know that so they know that the ramifications of

a large scale war would be incalculable for all actors involved and this is still the case so that neither the iranian side nor the american side are really interested in a large scale conflagration but it. doesn't mean that because of the volatility of the region we won't see any further steps of us because there are c.g. does also say that even a small scale incident could trigger a bigger conflict and there are enough policies involved in the conflict who might want to you know do that actually do that trigger a conflict absolutely we have a highly militarized persian gulf region in the wake of the most recent incidents and parts of the world and so the issue of miscommunication or the lack of communication you know the density of military. you know material in there in that particular region is of course you know posing a very strong risk and there are also hard line elements on old sides who might want to see you know

a smaller scale military conflict from which states think they can benefit well and you say europe is on the front lines of iran's aggression house of europe look. quite generally speaking vis this conflict started when when the british seized in the iranian tank. of all 2 it was down to syria syria is has been the object of a rainy and aggression they basically occupy the country own. the country and we've seen one result in a huge wave of refugees so we are on the front line of iranian aggression in that respect also we though we in germany are more dependent on russia russian oil than we are from the persian gulf with europe as a whole is much more dependent on oil from that region than for instance the united states which is not an oil importer it's not export a so we should be taught we in europe should be much more worried about what iran

is doing than for instance america needs to be and and we talk about this as if it were a conflict between you know from the ayatollahs but in fact donald trump has no interest whatsoever in. you've said it i'm not going to you know grip it all the reasons he would be scared stiff for many good reasons to start the big war in the gulf it's us who should be asking ourselves what's happening and why we are doing anything when you ask those questions or use some very emotive language of rechoose appeasement we will pay dearly for our cowardice b.s. why do you choose to use such emotive such such both in the language well. not because i think you know appeasement is a word from the thirty's not because i think that iran is is come comparable to nazi dogs from its be clear but the fact is they aren't heading for world domination but they are heading if they don't already have it for regional domination and again this is our neighborhood it's not the neighborhood of united

states and if iran controlled the region destroy israel if they as they have pledged to do. create as a shia dominated middle east we would millions of sunni paying the price as they are doing in syria and so on then we in europe will pay the prize the oil will break down we have even more refugees we will sooner or later be forced into a military conflict somewhere if not in the persian gulf then maybe in lebanon or eventually in turkey wherever we don't know we have to stop it raining aggression now and we can keep going through this you know. i think it's. completely wrong attitude because you know once you have. once you threat a threat to the iran already achieved is to have the television being strengthened

because you know. after 40 years of religious dictatorship would love to change the regime but they it's not possible as soon as you start attacking the iranian regime from outside. of course everyone in iran has to somehow. to stand behind the regime because they don't want to be they don't want to risk to have any invasion by the us anything so you can have an internal that. would love to have if you have the spectrum outside so you know you all you. see is just the opposite of what you want . logic sorry i think we were talking about 2 different issues about the geopolitics of the region where you'd you know pointed to and quite a stark terms i have to say to the role that iran plays in the region and on down to at least its negative role but part of the picture is also that the other side of the coin of those problematic actors in the region is also saudi arabia so we have not only you know limited to saudi arabia in iran i can also think of other

problematic actors but what is true of course is is that. in particular in the particular cases of syria iraq. partly yemen and lebanon and iran is playing a problematic role but then in other theaters would argue about saudi arabia that is playing you know the the primordial bad role so to speak so i think what we need is that we have we have to be critic critical views of both actors in the region and we have to understand that both saudi arabia and iran are playing the odds and in this kind of to mulch as you know geopolitics of the region the other question is how do we devise any kind of iran policy that is not strengthening the regime and you know that is not producing the kind of dynamic that you have laid down so what we've been seeing a decade ago is that the crippling sanctions regime you know imposed by the obama administration of course as you know we can civil society and strengthens those

political economic actors within the regime with privileged access to resources and then you know can does externalize the costs of sanctions onto the civilian population so we see a similar dynamic right now on the other hand we also see a lot of. sure imposed upon the states. you know in the wake of sanctions for example if you look at figures of iranian oil exports we see that despite you know a lot of claims to the contrary the u.s. economic process strategy has been quite successful so i think there are different facets of you know of of sanctions policy of policy in general that we have to take into account and we have to make sure that this is not a policy that is you know very much playing into those hands that we don't want to see them ok before ellen comes back and we've had our 1st impressions of this is simmering geopolitical showdown between donald trump's america and the islamic republic of iran let's just take a quick look at the recent chronology of the conflict and then we welcome back to

our own post. with the stroke of a pen president trump announced the u.s. withdrawal from the rand nuclear deal just over a year ago he impose new sanctions and threaten those who trade with iran. what followed was a steady escalation of tensions between the 2 countries iran began to enrich more you raney and. several times were attacked in the us declared he ran to be responsible. britain impounded and the rein in oil tanker off the coast of gibraltar he ran the tally into by capturing a british tanker in the straits of hormuz. tensions peaked when the us deployed an aircraft carrier and bombers to the persian gulf. from threaten to obliterate iran yet called off a planned air strike up an ostomy that war with iran is the mother of all wars counted iran's president hassan rouhani though he signaled a willingness to talk. just a lot of saber rattling before they sit down at the negotiating table. as i used to

question is it a lot of saber rattling or is there more to it for the again the chronology that you're all film shows. it is wrong because it starts as if you know the stroke of the pen by by donald trump was it wise was it not wise i don't know it was the beginning iran has been used you said it has been attacking in the region syria yemen and lebanon on. funding hamas funding terror groups all over the place for years now and the the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement was a retaliation to aggression which started with iran now i'm not saying that saudi arabia for instance which is scared stiff of iran is that some kind of angel is there a horrible regime but they are a status quo received they don't want to change the delicate balance of power in

that region iran is a revolutionary regime still after 40 years and and this is this they cannot be allowed to to completely destabilize well i mean they've already succeeded but to go on destabilizing their reported on my point is they're going to i mean saudi arabia doesn't have to be a revolution regime in order to you know rein yemen with bombs right so i think in terms reacting to the hoofy aggression i mean they're funded by iran everyone knows that but everyone also knows that in terms of iranian involvement in the region yemen is on a different category of iran when it comes to iran's involvement in syria and iraq i mean when it comes to yemen you know the prime culprit is of course outrageous so i wouldn't conflate those 2 cases although you know the who sees all supported by wrong with no doubt before you to continue your. i thought the. nuclear deal signed in 2050 was it was a triumph of diplomacy it was. a

stupidity. i mean. a triumph of sue's stupidity one sentence then will result of a deal said iran can have. a nuclear bomb in 10 years or the morris had to do was to wait now if that's a triumph of diplomacy then then then then then the munich agreement was was was i mean come on. promise someone you get to put the bomb in 10 years and you call it a draw and. what would it be any of us to prevent iran from enriching. atomic material for the bomb so it was very effective and the hope was that once you reduce the pressure on the regime that this democratic change that was to evolve would somehow be possible and i'll bet you that i mean that that didn't but that really worked very well did it yes and then no they started having

demonstrations all of these women airing this cough but all these movements are now dead because you put pressure on the regime so that was the possibility of having a peaceful change in iran and everything's destroyed just by it. let's bring in ali i mean the word to start to look. at i think i mean i mean i do agree with what was said about iran's role but probably you know in terms of terminology i would be more careful but i was also supported of the iran nuclear deal i thought that the nuclear crisis between the west and iran has to be settled diplomatically this is what happened with off the i was also very much openly criticizing the european policy on iran that i consider to be too soft if you want to put it in simplistic way just because what you have failed to do is use the kind of economic and political leverage that amassed into iran in order to force the iranians at

least for some gradual course corrections domestically but also in the region so this is what europe you know failed to do and as a consequence the gap between u.s. policy on iran and european policy on iran you know wide why didn't immensely that's the point i mean what was the language be that you would use the when we talk about the deal has it begun to unravel is the tone ruffling or has it already on ruffled i mean it's is a definitely on the verge of collapse if you what would that mean for european diplomacy. in the coming months and years it will be a disaster because this is still the cornerstone of european policy on iran well this is what you know official european policies has today but you know we have to think beyond the iran nuclear agreement while trying to keep it and for that to happen the europeans must figure out a way to provide iran with the economic dividends that iran wants but this is something that is unlikely to happen so you know the there is no doubt that the days of pure ways and in a vital crisis but we have to move beyond not only because of the sunset clauses of

the agreement itself that are going to kick in in the next few years but also because of other issues of concern that is that are not only raised by the trump administration but i think we have we do need a comprehensive approach in viewing this region not only to look at iran but also to the to look at the structural problems the lack of the regional security architecture that is working and we need really a more comprehensive understanding what is driving geopolitics in that region and for that we have to look at also what is happening inside of those countries the socio economic situation the political situation ecological logical situations all those crises also driving what we consider as to be geopolitics. let's just rewind a little bit as far as the u.s. request for other nations to join in its naval mission in the gulf and responded well with what was widely described here as a blunt you know here's the german foreign minister with his statement.

the hobbit to once was rewarded with luggage overspill together with the french and britain we discussed that no matter what such a mission could look like there's also an alternative to the us strategy of maximum pressure on iran which we believe is right the more it is the moment britain's would rather join in the american mission. we won't do that is bush to work. with you making that statement and they went down very well in germany i think most people said yes it's the right thing to do because startled trump is trigger happy well we've heard that donald trump isn't trigger happy there's not going to be a war so but but what if you encourage the iranians they might become more trigger happy that this is simply a document of cowardice and defeat waving the white flag was saying to the iranians go on not another couple of tankers we're going to be an observer mission oh big deal we know who's attacking the tank is a we don't have to observe everything anything anymore the british i mean we're

always talking about how we want to create a security architecture in europe which includes the british even if they leave that you're an european union and the 1st thing we do is when they have time as their attack the is to say ok you go along with a strong piece going to you know you're going to do the protection we can observe what are we going to do when their technology tankers what are we going to do if somewhere else outside guys are attacked and then we go running to the british who happen to have a navy as we don't have a one in this instance in terms of the vessels they can actually send to the region not much more than germany while exactly when we when we when we actually need help that this is going to say well what did you do when. when we were attacked i mean this is simply a breakdown of solidarity and the fact i mean what is the transatlantic partnership therefore if you don't happen not to like the president you prefer to capitulate

for a couple of turbaned a wearing a ton. come on i mean he said the democratic nation that united states and there's a feel crafted dictatorship the choice is easy not to germans but you know what i think i'd like to introduce another topic because i write about that because i'm a comic topic because the main problem is that the e.u. penes don't have any leverage because they are bound to the dollar as the reserve currency when you look at why do the u.s. sanctions work so well is because the dollar is needed by everyone trading globally so if the europeans really wanted to have some leverage at all against someone like because i think that really is a very global problem then what they needed was to have the euro as a you reserve currency and as long as the euro is weak because of the euro crisis there will be no. policy that can counteract against trump so you can just forget about the europeans as long as there's

a euro crisis and somebody who moves between don't. try to do it leverage that the europeans have the role of europeans have the divisions within europe now with the u.k. on the one hand and the continental europeans on the other and brigs luke. well i think what we've been seeing over the past few weeks and months is that. not only have there been signs from the trial but in the search inside of there are openly you know willing to talk to the iranian side but also vice versa we have been sitting you know we have seen signals of the iranian iranians basically testing the waters in terms of how far they can go in terms of negotiating and what to negotiate about but what is still is what is still lacking is the green light from the supreme leader of iran who has you know that is indispensable in terms of any kind of you know decisions a negotiation. in this picture obviously the main decision will be made in

washington. into iran and not in europe europe of course can play a mediating role and france has tried to do that. and it can be fruitful because i really i think everybody's going quiet what about germany germany is on holiday no i mean basically is the way the european policies right now is that the french are doing this or you know are acting on behalf of the core european states. and the french are you know quite also sharing the kind of concerns of the u.s. administration terms of iran's regional parties is much more than the german government actually so because so because of the actually that france could you know play a hopeful role but then again it's not up to europe you know newspapers being criticized christie criticizing fro macko for being inactive. for watching a proper alliance with the e 3 the europeans the brits the french and the germans well and my papers fight i mean. we have this crisis everyone's talking about well

we don't believe there's going to be a war that people are worried and the chancellor is is silent reading a book about shakespeare and some 100 days interesting by the way a book on the tyrant how to deal with a tyrant and the point is shakespeare really read you know you write you know you read a tyrant to topple him be it macbeth be it which at the 2nd be it the supreme leader of iran this guy is a danger to the world. 3 . major take and i think that you should not think that whenever you feel. that you should start a wall. about the shouting of. someone by someone what i'm saying is we have a. iran is aiming for regional head germany and regional destabilization that would

destabilize europe is already started with this one and i mean we don't have to be myopic i mean iran is is not a stabilizing force in the region but nor is the you know saudi arabian or is sometimes israel so we have the north sometimes a turkey for that matter so we have to take a comprehensive approach in order to be able to solve the perennial crisis that we have in the region if we keep on you know having i mean if the choice will be between a military regime change policy a lot of neo conservatism in iraq or authoritarian stability policies outside europe likes to do with all kinds of dictatorships in the region those are 2 bad choices so we have to figure out something you know agree to agree agree as well we're very we're going to get there i'm very sorry but i'd love to have more time great discussion. europe on the sidelines it looks a little bit that way thanks for joining us come back next week until i'm sure of.

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this is. from berlin tonight in italy the government teetering on the brink of collapse right wing populist and deputy prime minister and he says the governing coalition is finished and he's calling for new elections to get the latest on this breaking story from rome also coming up india's prime minister proclaiming a new era for kashmir for modi he says the region has been stripped of its all tanami to free.