i think that. that is. how i feel and why i left my job because i tried to do it back to new day. and i was. 2 alone a very warm welcome indeed to quadriga coming soon from the heart of berlin and this week the focus is on the dangerous standoff between iran and the u.s. in the persian gulf where each side is accusing the other of aggression tension rose in july when iran seems the british tanker the u.s. and the u.k. are both stepping up their military presence in the region but europe or at least continental europe is refusing to get on board the u.s.

naval mission and is instead continuing to put its face in the nuclear deal struck with iran in 2015 which president trump withdrew america from last year. so our question this week here on quadriga is iran crisis europe on the sidelines and to discuss that question i'm joined here in the studio by early for tolling the . middle east expert with think tanks like the brookings institution and the german council on foreign relations he argues that the big challenge is to transcends 2 equally simplistic perceptions of the islamic republic europe's tendency towards glorification of washington's polish all full demonetization and also with us is alan posner regular commentator for the bergen based elite team felt he believes that europe is on the front line of iran's aggression if we choose appeasement he says we will pay dearly for cow. in vegas and a very warm welcome to 2 already had

a man who's a business journalist with another berlin daily the time for sites on all the times it's also notable recount argues that the oil price is not rising the economic indicators suggest that the recent no real middle east crisis on the horizon. i'm very surprised by that you know this summer so much and so much if you didn't so the situation is tense and gets intensive and you're right to monitor it through so it's all going to blow over sometime very soon well i'm not saying that the markets are right they might perhaps they are too lazy to recognize the danger but it is interesting that in the middle of such upheaval politically there is so much. calm when it comes to the markets and. so apparently the traders think that there's nothing going to happen because otherwise they are prize would rise because 90 percent of all the middle east oil

of the gulf region oil is being transported through the strait of hormuz so apparently they've gone through what you say to all germans who are talking about a sense of deja vu they're talking about the provocation the counter provocation the verifiable claims that are being made by each side to us they're saying that it feels so much like 2003 and the gulf war back then yes probably but you know the biggest mistake ever made by the u.s. in this region was exactly this war against iraq and i can't imagine them repeating this very big mistake because by destroying the iraq they somehow pushed iran into the position has now i don't really think that the americans are keen on having another war going and. last point is the problem really is that it starts so many conflicts he's got a conflict with china going on he's got a conflict with his own the fed you know if every day the. new conflicts so it is

very hard to somehow. think it's fairly serious don't take a very serious they only found out on the job the international crisis group has made its contribution has come out with her address take you'd have to say assessment of what's going on let me just quote from it it says it's a little bounce averting the middle east's $914.00 moments and says that the situation is reminiscent of tensions on the eve of world war one. that strong stuff what do you make of it 1st of all i didn't really read the report and usually the publications of the international crisis group are quite solid but i'm not sure if this is struggle comparison is correct because if we for example compare the situation today in the region with that of indeed eve of the us invasion of iraq we see that geopolitically speaking there is no comparison whatsoever because iran is much stronger in the region and of course the us military and a lot of actors in the region do know that so they know that the ramifications of

a large scale war would be incalculable for all actors involved in this is still the case so that neither the iranian side nor the american side are really interested in a large scale conflagration but it doesn't mean that because of the volatility of the region we won't see any further steps of us collation because there e.c.g. does also say that even a small scale incident could trigger a bigger cause that and there are enough policies involved in the conflict who might want to you know do that to actually do that trigger a conflict absolutely we have a highly militarized persian gulf region and the wake of the most recent incidents and parts of the world and so the issue of miscommunication or the lack of communication you know the density of military. you know material in the in that particular region is of course you know posing a very strong risk and there are also hard line elements on all sides who might want to see you know a smaller scale military called. clicked from which state things that can benefit

ellen you say europe is on the front lines of iran's aggression house of europe look. quite generally speaking. this this conflict started when when the british seized in during in time. civil war 2 it was bound for syria syria is has been the object of a rainy and aggression they basically occupy the country their own. to the country and we've seen one result in a huge wave of refugees so we are on the front line of a ring in aggression in that respect also we though we in germany are more dependent on russia russian oil than we are on oil from the persian gulf with europe as a whole is much more dependent on oil from that region than for instance the united states which is not an oil importer it's not export a so we should be taught we in europe should be much more worried about what iran is doing than for instance america needs to be and and we talk about this as if it

were a conflict between you know from the ayatollahs but in fact donald trump has no interest whatsoever in you've said it i'm not going to you know group people the reasons he would be scared stiff many good reasons to start a big war in the gulf it's. should be asking ourselves what's happening and why we are doing anything when you ask those questions you use some very emotive language of we choose appeasement we will pay dearly for our cowardice with us why do you choose to use such emotive such such both in the language well not because i think you know appeasement is a word from the thirty's not because i think that iran is is come comparable to nazi dog from its be clear but the fact is they are heading for world domination but they are heading if they don't already have it for regional domination and again this is our unable. but it's not the neighborhood of the united states and if

iran controlled the region destroy israel if they as they have pledged to do. create a shia dominated middle east we millions of sunni paying the price as they are doing in syria and so on then we in europe will pay the prize the oil will break down we have even more refugees we will sooner or later be forced into a military conflict somewhere if not in the persian gulf then maybe in lebanon or eventually in turkey wherever we don't know we have to stop it raining and aggression now and we can you go into this you know. i think it's a completely wrong attitude because you know once you have. once you threat you have threatening the iran of all you is to have the television being strengthened because you know most iranians after 40 years of the late religious

dictatorship would love to change the regime by their it's not possible as soon as you start attacking the iranian regime from outside of course everyone in iran has to somehow. to stand behind the regime because they don't want to be they don't want to risk to have any invasion by the us anything so you can have an internal that people of which most would love to have if you have the threat from outside so you know you all you. see is just the opposite of what you want that logic sorry no i think we were talking about 2 different issues about the geopolitics of the region where you'd you know pointed and quite a stark terms i have to say so the role that iran plays in the region and on down to that lead it's a negative role but part of the picture is also that the other side of the coin of those problematic actors in the region is also saudi arabia and so we have not only in the limited to solder in iran can also think of. other problematic actors but

what is true of course is is that. in particular in the particular cases of syria iraq. partly yemen and lebanon on iran is playing you know a problematic world but then in other theaters would argue about saudi arabia that is playing you know the the primordial bad role so to speak so i think what we need is that we we have to be critic critical views of both actors in the region and we have to understand that both saudi arabia and iran are playing the odds and in this kind of tumultuous you know geopolitics of the region the other question is how do we devise any kind of iran policy that is not strengthening the regime and you know that is not producing the kind of do not mix that you have laid down so we've been seeing a decade ago is that the crippling sanctions regime you know imposed by the obama administration of course as you know we can civil society and strengthens those political or economic actors within the regime were privileged access to resources

and then you know can does externalize the costs of sanctions onto the civilian population so we see a similar dynamic right now on the other hand we also see a lot of pressure imposed upon the states. you know in the wake of sanctions for example if you look at figures of iranian oil exports we see that despite you know a lot of claims to the contrary the u.s. economic pressure strategy has been quite successful so i think there are different facets of you know of sanctions policy of policy in general that we have to take into account and we have to make sure that this is not a policy that is you know very much playing into those hands that we don't want to see them ok before ellen comes back and we've had our 1st impressions of this is simmering geopolitical showdown between donald trump's america and the islamic republic of iran let's just take a quick look at the recent chronology of the conflict and then we will come back to i don't post a. with the stroke of a pen president trump announced the u.s.

withdrawal from the run nuclear deal just over a year ago he impose new sanctions and threaten those who trade with iran. what followed was a steady escalation of tensions between the 2 countries iran began to enrich more uranium. several times were attacked in the us declared he ran to be responsible. britain impounded and the iranian oil tanker off the coast of gibraltar he ran the time he had to by capturing a british tanker in the straits of hormuz. tensions peaked when the us deployed an aircraft carrier and bombers to the persian gulf. from threatened to obliterate iran yet called off a planned air strike up a last minute war with iran is the mother of all wars counted iran's president hassan rouhani though he signaled a willingness to talk. just a lot of saber rattling before they sit down at the negotiating table. as i used to

question is it a lot of saber rattling or is there more to it. well the again the chronology that your your your film showed is wrong because it starts as if you know the stroke of the pen by by donald trump was it wise was it not wise i don't know it was the beginning iran has been used you said it has been attacking in the region syria yemen lebannon. funding hamas funding terror groups all over the place for 30 years now and the the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement was a retaliation to aggression which started with iran now i'm not saying that saudi arabia for instance which is scared stiff of iran is that there's some kind of angel is there a horrible regime but they are a status quo received they don't want to change they did the delicate balance of power in that region iran is a revolution. regime still after 40 years and this is this they cannot be

allowed to to completely destabilize well i mean they've already succeeded but to go one destabilize not very important one might want to circle in the way i mean the saudi arabia doesn't have to be a revolution regime in order to you know reign yemen with bombs right so i think in terms of reacting to the hoofy aggression i mean they're funded by iran everyone knows that out but everyone also knows that in terms of iranian involvement in the region yemen is on a different category of iran when it comes to iran's involvement in syria and iraq i mean when it comes to yemen you know the prime culprit is of course i agree with so i wouldn't conflate those 2 cases although you know the who sees all supported by wrong without no doubt before you to continue your. i saw the live the nuclear deal signed in 2050 was it was a triumph of diplomacy i mean it was. the

stupidity you know it was no i mean it's not like a triumph of suits stupidity in one sentence then we'll get through because somebody else said iran can have a nuclear bomb in 10 years or the mourners had to do was to wait now if that's a triumph of diplomacy then then then then then the munich agreement was. i mean come on. promise someone you get to put the bomb in 10 years and you call it a draw and. what would it be any of us to prevent iran from enriching. atomic material for the bomb so it was very effective and the hope was that once you reduce the pressure on the regime that this democratic change that was to evolve with somehow be possible and all that you get i mean not that didn't but that really worked very well they had it yes and then no they started having demonstration. all of these women no longer have airing this cough but all these

movements are now dead because you put pressure on the regime so that was the possibility of having a peaceful change in iran and everything's destroyed just by it. let's bring in ali i mean the word to start to show you. i think i mean i mean i do agree with what was said about iran's role but probably you know in terms of terminology i would be more careful but i was also supported of the iran nuclear deal i thought that the nuclear crisis between the west and iran has to be settled diplomatically this is what happened but off to the out i was also very much openly criticizing the european policy on iran that i consider to be too soft if you want to put it in simplistic ways because what would you have failed to do is use the kind of economic and political leverage that it has had amassed into iran in order to force the iranians at least for some gradual course corrections domestically but also in

the region so this is what europe you know failed to do and as a consequence the gap between u.s. policy on iran and european policy on iran you know wide wide and immensely if that's the point i mean what was the language be that you would use the when we talk about the deal has it begun to on gravel is it on ruffling or house or toll ready unraveled i mean it isn't definitely on the verge of collapse if you what would that mean for european diplomacy in the coming months and years it would be a disaster because this is still the cornerstone of european policy on the road well this is what you know officially european policies has today but you know we have to think beyond the iran nuclear agreement while trying to keep it for that to happen the europeans must figure out a way to provide iran with the economic dividends that iran wants but this is something that is unlikely to happen so you know the there is no doubt that the days of joys and you know vital crisis but we have to move beyond not on. because

of the sunset clauses of the agreement itself that are going to kick in in the next few years but also because of other issues of concern that is that are not only raised by the trump administration but i think we have the do need a comprehensive approach in viewing this region not only to look at iran but also to the to look at the structural problems the lack of the regional security architecture that is working and we need really a more comprehensive understanding what is driving geopolitics in that region and for that we have to look at also what is happening inside of those countries the socio economic situation the political situation ecological logical situations all those crises also driving what we consider as to be geopolitics. let's just rewind a little bit as far as the u.s. request for other nations to join in its naval mission in the gulf and responded well with what was widely described as a blunt you know here's the german foreign minister with his statement.

yeah but once was or did good luggage overspill together with the french and the britain we discussed that no matter what such a mission could look like there's also an alternative to the us strategy of maximum pressure on iran which we believe is right the more it is at the moment the britons would rather join in the american mission. we won't do that is bush to work. with you making that statement and they went down very well in germany i think most people said yes it's the right thing to do because stumble trump is trigger happy well we've heard that all the trump isn't trigger happy there's not going to be a war but what if you encourage the iranians they might become more trigger happy that this is simply a document of cowardice and defeat waving the white flag was saying to the iranians go on not another couple of tankers we're going to be an observer mission oh big deal we know who's attacking the tank is a we don't have to observe everything anything anymore the british i mean we're

always talking about how we want to create a security architecture in europe which includes the british even if they leave that you're an european union and the 1st thing we do is when their time does their attack the is to say ok you go along with trump he's going to you know you're going to do the protection we can observe what are we going to do when their technology tankers what are we going to do if somewhere else outside guys are attacked and then we go running to the british who happen to have a navy as we don't have a one in this instance in terms of the vessels so you can actually send to the region not much more than germany while exactly when we when we when we actually need help that this is going to say well what did you do when. when we were attacked i mean this is simply a breakdown of solidarity and the fact i mean what is the transatlantic partnership therefore if you don't happen not to like the president you prefer to capitulate for a couple of turbaned a wearing a tall. come on i mean you said the democratic nation that united states and

there's a feel crafted dictatorship the choice is easy not to germans but you know what i think i'd like to introduce another topic because i write about that because maybe i'm a comic topic because the main problem is that the europeans don't have any leverage because they have to the dollar is the reserve currency when you look at why do the u.s. sanctions work so well is because the dollar is needed by everyone trading globally so if the europeans really wanted to have some leverage at all against someone because i think that really is a very global problem then what they needed was to have the euro as a you reserve currency and as long as the euro is weak because of the euro crisis there would be no european. policy that can counteract against a chump so you can just forget about the europeans as long as there's

a euro crisis and somebody who moves between doha and what's your trade going to do it leverage that the europeans have the role of europeans of the divisions within europe now with the u.k. on the one hand and the continental europeans on the other and brigs luke. well i think what we've been seeing over the past few weeks and months is that. not only have there been signs from the trial but in the search inside that there are openly you know willing to talk to the iranian side but also vice versa we've been seeing you know we have seen signals of the iranian iranians basically testing the waters in terms of how far they can go in terms of negotiating and what to negotiate about but what is still is what is still lacking is the green light from the supreme leader of iran who has you know that is indispensable in terms of any kind of you know decisions and i go she actions. in this picture obviously the main decision will be made in washington. into iran and not in europe europe of course can play

a mediating road and france has tried to do that. and it can be fruitful because it was ever going to go quiet and what about germany germany is on holiday you know i mean basically is that where the european policy is right now is that the french are doing this or you know are acting on behalf of the core european states. and the french are you know quite also sharing the kind of concerns of the u.s. administration terms of iran's regional parties is much more than the german government actually so because so because of that actually france could see in a play a hopeful role but then again it's not up to europe you know newspapers being criticized christie criticizing fro macko for being inactive. for watching a proper alliance with the e 3 the europeans the brits the french and the germans well and my papers fight i mean. we have this crisis everyone's talking about well

we don't believe there's going to be a war but people are worried and the chancellor is is silent reading a book about shakespeare and some 100 days interesting by the way a book on the tyrant how to deal with the tyrant the point is shakespeare reread the only way to know you read a tyrant is to topple him be it macbeth be it richard the 2nd be it the supremes leader of iran this guy is a danger to the world. but they can't just 50. that's the same kind of analysis that 2003 to the top amount of saddam hussein in iraq into the us really a major mistake and i think that you should not somehow always think that whenever you feel dissed by someone else around the globe that you should stop the wall no one's talking about discharging a wall feeling to someone by someone on what i'm saying is we have a. iran is aiming for regional head germany and regional destabilization that would

destabilize europe it's already started with just what i mean we don't have to be myopic i mean iran is is not a stabilizing force in the region but nor is the you know saudi arabian or is sometimes so we have in the north sometimes a turkey for that matter so we have to take a comprehensive approach in order to be able to solve the perennial crisis that we have in the region if we keep on you know having i mean if the choice will be between a military regime change policy a neo conservatism in iraq or both a retiree and stability policy dobbs your book likes to do with all kinds of the keeper serves in the region those are 2 bad choices so we have to figure out something that you know agree on but disagree on a very is where we're very we're going to have to leave it there i'm very sorry i'd love to have more time great discussion we've been talking about the iran crisis europe on the sidelines it looks a little bit about what you thanks for joining us come back next week until then bye bye i'm sure of.

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