is a global recession around the corner wall street appears to think so investors ditched stocks on wednesday for safe haven bonds after data from china and germany point to a slowdown. also on the show argentina's president backs off his strict austerity program after getting walloped at the polls but is that enough to convince recession weary argentinians. and a deadly fungus wipes out but anna crops in colombia experts say 95 percent of the world's banana production could be at risk. this is your business report i'm stephen beard's in berlin thanks for joining us u.s. markets plummeted today on new fears that a global recession is approaching with the dow and nasdaq index is both losing more than 3 percent driving the worries new data from china and germany suggesting both economies are slowing let's start with china factory output there grew in july by

the lowest rate in 17 years showing an uptick of only 4.8 percent analysts had forecast a 6 percent rise retail sales also rose less than expected a sign of weakening demand among chinese consumers the data suggests that the global slowdown and the trade war with the u.s. is biting into the world's 2nd largest economy. meanwhile europe's biggest economy appears to be running out of steam german g.d.p. shrinking by a 10th of a percent in the 2nd quarter fueling concerns that a slowdown is already here the latest figures follow a lackluster growth in the 1st 3 months of the year 0 at the end of last year both exports and industrial production have fallen in the last quarter should the economy contract to get in the next quarter germany would officially be in recession. now behind a german slowdown is a series of factors some are global in nature and others are home grown take a look. of all sectors it's the hitherto invincible industrial sector that's begun

to drag on germany's economy for years it's been the driving force behind the recovery but no longer german industrial production in june 29000 was 5 point 2 percent down on june last year that's the largest reversal since the global financial crisis and recession 10 years ago. exports of also long been a pillar of the economy also a thing of the past right now germany's exports in june 29th were 8 percent lower than in june 28th. industrial companies are dealing with a number of factors the trade war between the us and china is exerting a drag on the global economy. fee is also surround brags that the u.k.'s impending departure from the e.u. germany's energy transition the switch to sustainable energy sources is still very much work in progress and adding to the country's woes its flagship auto industry

is struggling with home troubles they include the notorious diesel emissions scandal the conversion to electric drive systems and problems with digitalisation in general. all these issues are combining to weigh on overall economic output and with the outlook not appearing too promising either it could well be that the e.u.'s number one economy is heading steadily towards recession. and let's go now to our financial correspondent in new york. who's there we saw yesterday the major indexes were soaring on positive trade news today they're absolutely tanking do we know really what markets are telling us about the economy right now. well there are several things that we should have been consideration as stephen maybe the most important one is that a trade war is here to stay and some already expected will nod and before next year's presidential election and it's not only between the u.s. and china but also we need to see what happens next so we europe and japan trade

tensions are adding to ongoing political geopolitical risk such as the possibility of a no deal break see the protests in hong kong argentina or iran to mention a few and on top of that we can see we are entering the late stages of the economic cycle at a time that most central banks aside from the fed have not been normalized monetary policy and actually it looks that they will have to implement this again has made investors run for cover especially u.s. treasuries at a time in between their 2 year and 10 year bond has inverted something that happened before that to financial crises and a sign that the recession could be in the cards in the next 18 to 22 months. the u.s. stocks began to dip today as the numbers from china and germany came out what about the numbers from the us itself this has been the strongest economy in recent months if not the past year or so does this suggest trouble times ahead.

data just slowed down more then proper recession to stephen by delaying it. is going to save christmas shopping but also he's admitting that the us consumer will end up suffering the consequences of the trade war maybe not in the coming months but. next year and as for now consumption is a still a strong claims in a move to decade at lows and growth is a steal at slightly above potential but he always the monetary policy investors are expecting at least 2 more rate cuts from the federal reserve before the year end and some more in 2020 move. the longest economic cycle alive at least until pas next year's presidential election a very good point their interest rates of course everyone's observing as they lose the heart of their force in new york thank you. over south america now message received after losing big in an election primary argentine president maurizio

mockery wants voters to know that he's heard the mockery says he's taking a step back from his strict austerity program for the country and offering salary hikes and tax cuts the questions now will it convince voters and could it spook international investors in the country. president mark rehear lost the primary election last weekend now wants to increase his chances of winning the next elections i was cutting income taxes increasing subsidies for social programs and implementing a temporary fuel price freeze. so maybe as a measure that will bring relief to 17000000 workers and their families and towards small and medium sized businesses that i know are going through a moment of great uncertainty. on buenos aires streets the reactions to mockeries measures are mixed but most agree they should have been taken earlier . it's not enough it's just not enough on top of that our trust has been betrayed

these are temporary measures that the president manages to win with these measures what's going to happen next year will be traitors again. i think it's good that he announces these measures and remembers the people the voters voted for him despite the difficult situation in the country. here i do think there are a lot of people who decide at the last minute who they want to vote for and now here we are. in. the landslide victory by popular subeditor fernandez has investors worried they're afraid he'll try to renegotiate argentina's debt with the i.m.f. and the country could lose the trust of international creditors again. he said. on monday the stock market tumbled and the peso as dropped against the dollar but mockeries announcement on wednesday has done little to car markets investors could

already be pricing in a default let's look now at some of the other global business stories making news. u.s. house of representatives speaker nancy pelosi has threatened to block a post breads that trade deal between the u.k. and the us she said any such deal would have no chance of passing the congress and quote if it risks the good friday peace agreement in northern ireland. u.s. public opinion of china has soured badly amid the trade spat between the 2 nations 60 percent of u.s. citizens now have an unfavorable view of china that according to the pew research center that's the most in the past 14 years up from 47 percent a year ago. and over to the fruit industry now where bananas are big business in fact the livelihoods of millions of farmers mostly in asia and central america depends on the banana and so far so good it's the world's most popular

fruit we eat $100000000000.00 bananas every year there are many varieties but the cavendish is the most popular 190 percent 95 percent rather of all exported bananas are cavendish and that's exactly the problem because there's a fungus known as panama disease that attacks exclusively bananas of the cavendish variety it's already swept through asia and it's spreading a $430.00 acre section of columbia's banana crop has now been contaminated some experts are even predicting the end of the banana to lethal fungus devastates banana plantations the fuse area morgan ism is already destroyed crops in asia now it's in latin america. that it presents at the fees r.e.m. fungus continues to be contained in the black watch out of area on $432.00 acres 6 banana plantations are affected by national. colombia has declared a national emergency and the country's agricultural institute has launched

a nationwide effort to increase on a 3 controls to contain it the arrival of the fungus in latin america the world's largest exporter of bananas is a major threat. colombia's one of the world's leading but on exporters after ecuador costa rica hung jury us panama and guatemala. most of the banana sold in western supermarkets are of the cavendish variety which have traditionally produced a solid gildea under easy to transport as a result they've become somewhat of an export sensation. but because of mass culture of a sheen of this one kind of phenomena many foundations lack genetic diversity diminishing the chances of a strain that is resistant to the disease that has led many farmers to fear for their livelihoods in colombia alone banana plantations occupies some $50000.00 hectares the country exports some $100000000.00 boxes of the manually at a value of $860000000.00 tens of thousands of jobs are lie in the industry.

and that's it for me and the business team you can find out more about these and other stories online at www dot com slash business i'm saying there's a villain let's watch a. fake

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