it's person it's device it's about topics that affect us all the pollution climate change and the turns. on the reef and check it out. playing with fire in saudi oil fields the u.s. and its allies say iran was behind the attack on saudi oil infrastructure an act of war is how washington described the missile and drone strike on the kingdom's biggest oil refinery but a military response by president trump could spark a wider conflict in cripple the global economy and with it the president's chances for reelection around versus the u.s. trying to corner.

a low and welcome to to the point i'm brian thomas thanks so much for dropping in today these are my guests to talk about our issue suzanne coble works for the weekly dish beagle she just came back from saudi arabia where she reported about those attacks she's convinced trumps policy of maximum pressure generated maximum counterpressure. all the for telling their god is iran expert as the brookings institution in doha he believes iran seems to have overplayed its thus far well calculated strategy of task. and rick no act as a correspondent for the washington post here in berlin he says trump's so far hasn't been response may both reflect concerns over a military conflict ahead of the presidential elections 2020 and the lack of a consistent strategy in iraq. thanks so much to all of you as well for

being here today suzanne if we could start with you you're just back from iran are from saudi arabia rather are people in that country worried about an attack by iran by a war in the region they are definitely i mean there is a war going on in the country in the south in yemen since 4 years and 6 months. they don't see so much of this war but this is definitely a repeat the question which goes straight directly to the heart of the of the country they see that there is destabilization in syria in iraq and so they really fear that this could come to that this could strike the country and destabilize the country. ali what about iran you know the fears of destabilization in the wider region or president reaches certain saudi arabia is that an issue for the people of iran i think that no one wants to have a war in the region i think you know there have been a lot of wars in the past decade in this region that have been calamitous so this

is why a lot of regimes in that region including the iranian one but also the saudi one another has always played the fear card when it comes for example to protest so they always point to other you know war ravaged countries but i think the threat of war as you know is very much on people's minds or the concern of war but then again i think you know neither the iranian nor the american side can really you know can really bear the costs of any large military confrontation so i think this is the hope or this is the avenue for maybe a diplomatic solution ok well we'll get to that eventually but in terms of iran and the people who are supporting the regime of the mullahs this threat of war that you mention that no one wants to see happen has it supported as it led to a firming up of the the mullahs grip on power or are the moderates still. in. game with the option that they've been enjoying up to the end of the iran

nuclear deal yeah i mean you're asking probably about the rallying around the flag a fact that if this is something that has materialized in iran or not i mean if you compare the situation today in iran to a decade ago when we had the bush administration in washington where we had a neo conservative ideological push for war in the middle east there was indeed a rallying around the flag among iranians back then against bush's regime change policies in the region but this time around given the you know given the very deep seated crises that the iranians face at home socio economic political and the collage of coal i think the main blame is put on the regime for old you know for all the problems also including the economic challenges and people do understand that sanctions have very bad facts on their everyday life but they also do understand it's a regime that predominantly bears responsibility for the economic situation so it's

a very difficult situation for the regime and it's not and what has not happened so far which is that actually people will be killed or you know were killed so if this happens maybe we're going to see some rattling around the flag in fact ok as well u.k. so far the rally around around the flag effect though is leading to support for the regime rick what are the u.s. is larger strategic interests right now we heard about the sanctions and how they're affecting people in iran is it the desire to strictly stay with the sanctions regime and avoid a military conflict well so far it seems that way you have to remember donald trump is in a trade war with with china he very much is thinking about this and how this might be impacting his reelection chances in 2020 and he's sure and said himself that he's very hesitant to to engage in any sort of military action in the. ultimately

what he fears or think is that he could drive up certainly oil prices if there was an escalation which wouldn't. hurt the u.s. directly as much as it would have hurt them about 10 years ago or 20 years ago but the ripple effects for instance on china and then again on the world economy and in the u.s. would be quite damaging and that that's what you feel ok so we've established no one wants a war right now there are no players in this region who would like to see any type of. firing of weapons happening but nonetheless there's the there's the chance given the proximity of so many ships in the narrow strait of hormuz that something could potentially inadvertently occur are the certain saudis concerned about that that there could be a mistake in the gulf region that could lead to some type of broader conflict i think everybody has a good reason to fear that there is a mistake which leads to an escalation and completely describe the potential of

danger we see here. what we should not underestimate is that there is a war going on since for no obvious people are dying in mass is there's a bargeman every day in gym and what we see is the repercussions the ripple effects which are coming from there and it's a combination i would say between this war and the tensions which saudi arabia and iran has right now and including certainly the interests and the leverage the americans have a about it what we also see is that. the this this protection umbrella that the americans provided for so long is not is not is not given any longer. president trump is like always. weighing what could benefit does what could affect my my my reelection so it's not like we need to protect our allies which was actually. it by the saudis that means that the game is

a complete new one dynamics are completely new the saudis feel we have to protect ourselves and that can absolutely leads to reactions which which we don't know yet and at the same time they are dependent to even use their military assets they cannot they cannot stage a war anywhere without the consent of the americans the iranians can absolutely hurt the saudis and you never know what the enemy does next so the iranians get hurt saudis the success of the attack on the on the saudi oil refinery points to a certain weakness on for saudi arabia is that being perceived at the upper levels of the saudi military are they aware of the weaknesses that they've presented to the world and what kind of military strength do they really possess right now can you give us an idea of that especially compared to a country like iran roughly 80000000 people on a very powerful military i mean saudi is actually completely dependent on the on

the military in the military feel that they're completely dependent on the americans they have this they have 6 patel against of patriot defense missile systems but at the same time you see they have had success to shoot down maybe 200 of these drones which have not been so sophisticated in the 1st place but now they're getting better you see i mean men or whoever who sees combined with the iranians they definitely develop this capabilities they get they are getting better and those show that they can hit and the systems the saudis have to protect themselves are definitely not sufficient means means that if they want to strike back or one second if they want to strike back they would need to be to have these support of the americans without they count as one reason the americans probably.

sent a new contingent of soldiers to saudi arabia or last week or so rick when we look at the potential impeachment problems in washington right now how's that affecting american for a foreign policy in the region is america going to be more focused on its internal struggles in washington than it should be on his foreign policy objectives well certainly it's going to turn the focus very much it also means that. the house of representatives congress certainly won't want to give victory on any front that's going to intensify those partisan battles even even more. ok in terms of iran ali is it enjoying what it's seeing in washington right now saying ok we're going to have a respite now america is going to be busy with its domestic politics and policies of potential pietschmann of a u.s. president that'll give us some reading space not only in the gulf but in the region

at large i think there is still uncertainty in iran whether it is you know it is good to wait out trump or is it more prudent to destroy any kind of negotiations right now i mean you know for many for many years for the last few years people were saying that basically it's you know we should wait and see but then again i mean if you look at us democratic presidents or not more friendly to iran and also the position of the u.s. minorities of iran is not going to change overnight so i think you know for the iranians to wait and see what will happen is you know it's not that relevant but on the other hand what is relevant is the iranian calculation that is true that trump is not interested in a war this has been underpinning iran his strategy for the past half a year of you know of a serious oh well calculated steps and measures of provocation of state destabilization of the persian gulf region and also this latest attack on the saudi oil refinery just shows how much iran is still convinced that trump doesn't seek

war there's speculation that the attack on the saudi oil facilities was in direct response to the attack allegedly by israel they did not confirm or deny on a shia militia arms depo in iraq that was armed or supplied with weapons from iran do you think that's possible well this is one of the narratives that we have besides the you know the yemen who theater rebels narrative and this particular narrative sounds that against the backdrop of israeli attacks in august against iranian allied shia militia. the mobile is a. forces and this particular attack by the israelis was financed by the saudis so this is one kind of narrative that we have this is why the saudi or rough refinery was a target as a response again this is a way to have a low level kind of a conflict that doesn't. wind up into a broader conflict this tit for tat kind of responses take

a look now at iran ever since the u.s. withdrew from the iran nuclear deal or any and provocations and violence have been escalating in the gulf iran has seized tankers it's threatened british international shipping in of western intelligence is right conducted strikes as we just mentioned on oil production that immediately took 5 percent of the planet's fuel offline. drone strikes into major only installments in saudi arabia. routine rebels loyal to run were quick to claim responsibility. in the u.s. trump thinks he knows the real culprit iran they're the ones who should be put in their place we just impose the highest level of sanctions on iran central bank and suffering well done. all nations have a duty. no responsible government should subsidize. iran's blood lust. it's also

a war of words between donald trump and iran's president rouhani. the enemy has chosen a path that he calls economic war but is in fact an act of economic terrorism against the nation that's our rouhani responded at a military parade in toronto but the threat of a real and devastating war is still imminent and both sides will the persian gulf erupt. the reagan president right is america engage in economic terrorism against iran well this is what his foreign ministry was also a calling economic sanctions against iran by the united states and i think i mean it's part of the iranian p.r. to you know counter that kind of move by the u.s. by using such harsh language on the other hand of course there is a whole discussion about economic sanctions and their impact on the civilian populations and their role of course human rights issues that are of concern. it's

the imposing country house to you know be big to take care off but also when it comes to economic sanctions there are also local autocrats who do benefit from and a kind of imposition of sanctions so it's not that easy ok where does the american public really stand on this if they back the president's position. on on iran not going forcefully as john bolton is no longer with the administration would have liked and counting on the sanctions regime and possibly some back to al discussions were certainly no appetite in the united states for any military escalation of the in fact the president himself a problem is to withdraw troops from afghanistan he hasn't done so yet he's under pressure to do so so the public certainly is very wary of any escalation of that sort but they're also skeptical of saudi arabia so in a poll recently about 2 thirds of americans said saudi arabia is not really an

ally it's not really trust you know an ally did they can trust him in and that raises a lot of questions of course a lot of democrats are skeptical of iran as well but they say that trump's moves on it withdrawing from the iran nuclear deal have actually made matters worse today blame him for for that escalation we've seen ok you know. the u.s. is building a coalition in the gulf right now it has 20 warships 20000. soldiers and sailors in the region 103 strike aircraft and it's been asking germany to participate in the military coalition to protect the oil that also fuels the german industry do you see germany at some point. contributing a military component to help out with the efforts in the gulf at the end of the day they might go with that at the same time i'm sure that the most of the germans are

not happy if it's not under the flag of you and the united nations are actually pretty much the only the only body that would accept right now there's so little sympathy for the strategy from which comes from the u.s. that because it's so unpredictable and people really don't don't buy it it's every day they wake up and they have another strategy from from from mr trump. so they would certainly prefer if this would be under the umbrella of the united nations but we are allies and if it's not really the 1st step of a new escalation that they might go with it ok rick you mentioned saudi arabia and 2 thirds of americans not being happy with that alliance of partnership let's talk about saudi arabia and whether it should be a partner for the west it's been at least through its. allied troops in yemen responsible for the killing civilians it's assassinated a journalist. suppresses of course women and is

a world leader in executions so many are asking why should the west be allied with saudi arabia. the world has a responsibility to ensure the safety and security of this region to ensure and to deter iran from engaging in aggressive behavior by saudi arabia and. the journalist jamal khashoggi lived in exile in the u.s. and was mad considering the saudi embassy in turkey his remains were never found saudi crown prince mohammed bin soundman is suspected to be deniable for his can in . saudi arabia is also not. the country has become the battlefield with saudi arabia and iran wage a proxy war over regional dominance armed with weapons from the west if shown little remorse for the damage they caused. saudi arabia has also been aggressively exporting its religion while his and their interpretation of islam they find and

schools foundations and most in europe like here in belgium should the west bank saudi arabia. so you've reported on the murder assassination i'm looking at this report and reporting yourself from saudi arabia what do you think is saudi arabia the kind of partner in spite of all of its strategic advantages that the west the united states europe should have it's definitely a difficult partnership at the same time we do need to look at where this country is going to undergoes a dramatic fundamental transformation i mean you would not believe what you see right now there is that the u.s. is definitely supporting the crown prince even if we in the west would criticize him for a lot of things the us which are the absolute majority inside the country definitely

are with him and supporting him at the same time the older people the oldest. the establishment is very critical towards him because he is actually. more or less concentrating all power and all this issues only on him and the king so regarding regarding human rights. it's a huge problem i would say because people are disappearing people may not may not be right in the longer i mean freedom of speech is not happening it's not existing any longer and if you don't follow. you either lose your job or you go to prison or anything and this is something which cannot be tolerated at the same time i just give you the perspective of the saudis themselves they say this is not of your business we we rearrange things as we need them we do it and transformation which is which is major and we need to take precautions for

a lot of things which you wouldn't even understand. are there any options to saudi arabia well i mean the problem is that. i mean we have this you know level of the on politike we're we have to of course engage with every kind of state in the world this is how international relations work this is how we can settle conflicts in a peaceful manner but then again we have to rethink really the nature of our relationships with some of the countries of that region because. you know there are mass there are important questions when it comes to when it comes to those issues. is it really in german in germany's and europe's benefits to engage in such close relationships with autocratic regimes or is it counterproductive because if you doing gauge it with other credit regimes and you engage in a policy of terence the ability that has been the hallmark of european policies

towards its neighborhood for the last few decades then you will increase the contradictions in that country. so those stable partners are just you know superficially so but those contributions are all those dictatorships are not stable in fact they're not and the contradictions there are contradictions continue to exist regardless so why not move to a different platform in the region bahrain the united arab emirates djibouti couldn't they serve their purpose geographically that saudi arabia has right now well i mean there are reasons for why we have you know good relations with saudi arabia but i was a. questioning the wisdom of just you know relying on autocratic regimes when it comes to issues of security or whatever in the region because i mean what we said the way forward would be that the kind of relationships and the like kind of leverage that we have political and economic views of the those countries that we just use them more often and we you know you we you know perhaps my just some kind

of conditionality is when it comes to the deepening corporation with those countries that is a possibility that conditionalities right now are something donald trump definitely looking at in reference to to iran his question right now is he needs to contain iran and at the same time prevent a regional conflict from happening that would threaten him in the 2020 elections is is that a major concern right now washington well certainly the concern is. you know on one side of the political divide you have the hawks who think that he's essentially caused oldest by being too cautious on the other side you have some of his own supporters but also a lot of democrats who say he needs to be very cautious and continues intially that path he's essentially maneuvered himself into a situation he can't really get out without looking bad for one of those it's

actually and it's really his own problem and really he's caused that problem himself by drawing out of that deal drawing drawing out of the 2015 nuclear deal let's get some brief assessments to wrap it up suzanne what do you think will the president manage to of contain iran and at the same time avoid sparking a wider conflict absolutely has to because he doesn't have another choice ok so you're you're counting on him to do that what do you say well i think that we are in a into the situation is quite risky and it could lead to ask elation if the u.s. for example decides to you know engage in the kind of military you know reaction to the south. oil of talk. i think so the iranians will you know make sure that they can have some sanctions relief further down the road and for that to happen and the u.s. has to decide because i don't think that europe has the leverage to you know to help with that process europe's not a player at all right now is it i mean i mean it doesn't mean that europe doesn't

play a role at all i mean it could be a facilitates a media of media to of sorts but when it comes to my calls failed initiative although his best i mean he tried his best also during the u.n. general assembly to bring together brawny and trying to negotiate we're still lacking from the iranian side is the green light from the supreme leader to tell rouhani that he's allowed to meet with trump ok so there's a lot of backroom discussions that have to happen to create some type of diplomacy moving forward i'd like to thank all my guests for being in today for all your comments here that you brought to the table today i'd like to thank our viewers from around the world and remember we're here next week as well i'm brian thomas thanks so much for being here.

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