don't look these should be nice to be. discovered. subscribe to the documentary. this was supposed to be the decisive week for breakfast but when and how and possibly even whether the u.k. will leave the e.u. remains unclear after stormy debate a partial victory for boris johnson the majority in parliament approved his withdrawal deal in principle but they voted down his timetable now the ball is in brussels court willing to agree to the extension the reluctant lee requested by the

prime minister westminster seal the deal. to. work and we have 3 breaths that watchers with us here on to the point to help us penetrate the fog emanating from london dirk's go it works for the irish times and she says boris johnson and his breakfast brothers have paralyzed europe for 3 years now there is a huge departure has become a deal or no deal game show but it can always get worse and it will. and it's a pleasure to welcome john birth he is a british blogger living here in berlin he says a general election before christmas is now boris johnson's only way out of his self-inflicted mess. and we're very happy to have ventilated from a great job. with us she works for the british magazine the economist and she says

and he's are kicking the can down the road which means breck's it is less and less likely by the and the money. so derek you say that johnson and his brothers in your words have paralyzed europe but aren't we in fact seeing at least a little bit of movement now at least there has been agreement agreement on a deal which in fact is something to reset may never achieved has been technically an preliminary agreement i mean it's tiny steps forward but there could easily be more steps back and we've been doing this are very long time it's a signal of just how poisonous the british political system is now that the parliament doesn't trust its own prime minister they don't trust him that they will agree to this and they have double crossed him or he will be double crossed by his brigadiers the hard drugs here is and they will have a no deal breaks it so it's a sign of how bad things are that this is all they could do this week and we don't know what's coming so yes it's progress if you want but from

a very low base so the parliamentarian's ventilating are asking for more influenced more details more time you say that amounts to kicking the can down the road but isn't it pretty understandable that they have let's say woken up out of their stupor and are actually making some demands given the magnitude of what's happening it's absolutely understandable because it's a very complex undertaking they have to read through hundreds of pages of more than 100 pages of very detailed very complex stuff and you can't do that in a few days even though the prime minister tried to get them to do that by the end of the month so it is absolutely understandable the only thing is of course if you do that for yet another extension that again creates uncertainty and the possibility of obstacles or problems which is of course why boris johnson didn't kept insisting no we have to leave by the 31st of october which increasingly looks like you're not feasible so john you say a general election could wind up being boring. johnson's only way out explain that

to us if you would because in fact he does have approval on this deal why would he want to reopen it so to speak dissension because the only good approval because he put the parliament terence will potentially put the problem terence under enormous pressure they didn't actually really know this was in the steele says basically give me this deal now and what the poem in terms of said is he going to mean it we need more time to analyze this and when they start looking into it they see details with regard to all of the different aspects the economic relationship the northern ireland border where they have problems and ultimately that 330 politicians that boris johnson had back in his deal he will whittle down that will go lower and lower as the weeks go by and boris johnson is understood that so if he says ok let's risk a general election i'll go into the general election promising bret's it and hopefully come back with a majority so ultimately it would be a gamble but that way he might increase the number of conservative members of parliament and then be able to get a much larger majority to make sure that his brakes it is secure so to talk

a little bit about the implications of an election in a moment but 1st let us ourselves explore a little bit of what this deal does contain so as john just mentioned ireland especially northern ireland a major sticking point. p. party that used to be friends of the tories saying it's been sold out can you just briefly tell us derek what exactly is the agreement now on ireland is it workable and is it going to be acceptable in the end if there's a compromise on both sides a northern ireland in future will be sort of in between the e.u. and the u.k. it will be officially part legally part of the u.k. customs union so if you k. does deals with the us it can profit from that but there's a back door enough back door we'll keep the border between northern ireland and the republic which is staying in the open so basically if you want to be positive about it they have the best of all possible worlds even membership on officially pragmatically on. on

a day to day basis traveling over and back across their open border but they also have access to these wonderful new global britain trade deals of london will be agreeing so they got the best of all possible worlds but the people in northern onto a lot of the queen they don't want to be they don't want special treatment they just want to be as good you know u.k. citizens anyone else and they think that as time goes on and the trade differences between you can you get bigger the gap between northern r. than the rest of the u.k. will become great figure and then there was sort of on the slippery slope towards united on which they want to avoid but only let's talk a little bit about timing as we said johnson had sworn he would leave the e.u. by october 31st but now he submitted this very very ambivalent request to the e.u. for an extension take us through that if you would well doris johnston said he had all the die in a ditch then then that leaves the later than october 1st now he's snogged that he may be but he's not that what he did is something very unusual he sends because by

law by the ben act he was very quiet to ask for an extension so he sent that letter demanding an extension but without signing it probably without putting a stop on the letter maybe even sledging me a little bit and then he sent another letter which he sighed where he says well you know i'm actually against the extension which was of course playing to his base that was all part of his posturing and you know he's a great theatrical thea to make it so that's what it is skew no he he will need an extension it's impossible to get it through by the end of the month but because he promised he wouldn't do that he does this whole charade of not signing the letter and pretending you know he's doing something he's obliged to do because it's and nice impose it on him so it seems the ball is now in brussels court and from what we're hearing decision makers there are torn between frustration and the fervent desire to ensure an orderly withdrawal let's go now to detail the use brussels

bureau chief max hoffman. hi max help you a cab here and say yes we can you tell me 1st of all what is the mood in brussels are people there basically saying we have just got to get this thing over . well 1st of all the mood is that the ball is not at all in the court of the european union but they still feel they need guidance by boris johnson what's the plan because as you know the braggs a deal is on ice even the brig's of the withdrawal bill which is the legislation behind that deal is on ice at the moment and boris johnson has always said if there is an extension that he will pull that bill and he will call for snap elections so does he really want to do that how much time would he need to do that if not he still wants to pass the deal how long will it take him to get it through the u.k. house of commons if at all and the thinking here is if we know how long he needs to do that and we'll give them that maybe 5 days extra and then they'll have the time

he needs but so far no signals like that from the u.k. so there is frustration about that and you know it's been going on for 3 and a half years it's no miracle that many here just want to get it over with but with a deal so what's your guess where this is how this is going to play out when will we have a decision out of brussels and what kind of timeframe do you think will then be talking about you ambassadors met on wednesday and it appeared that in the room they were all in favor of the extension the question is just how long the french want to short technical extension maybe even 3 to 4 weeks and countries like germany say given the extension they asked for which is until the 31st of january they will meet again on friday and might get a decision there what they want to avoid at all costs is another summit another brags that summit that gives even more attention to boris johnson next off month thank you very much for being with us. so let's pick up on that john and come

back to this general election idea that you had mentioned in your opening statement now boris johnson had said if in fact it's a long extension he will maybe want to go through with a general election but apparently his party is very divided so what's your assessment 1st of all on where the tories stand and then we're going to talk a little bit about labor so basically the conservative party thinks it could win a general election it's 10 percentage points ahead of the labor party in the opinion polls boris johnson is more popular than jeremy colvin the labor party leader but the conservatism nervous because they were also 10 pin points ahead in the opinion polls back in 2017 and look at what happened there because jeremy tobin calls up then with a reason may that then conservative leader is also the case that many conservatives want to get breaks it done and say that get braces and 1st and then have a general election because the population will end functus for having managed to get britain out of the european union because there is that gentleman waiting in the wings knowledge will for all of the worry well known member of the european

parliament who will come roaring back he will essentially say this breaks a deal that boris johnson is negotiated that's not a real bricks it we want to real and radical breaks it out and out now and boris johnson fears that he would new support to the break that party and not much allow opposition parties in and so that's the reason for the nervousness winter is also coming and no one really likes doing election campaigns in november and december when it's rainy and cold and unpleasant not might also mean that election turnout may also be down so it would be a very very strange election but ultimately only ballance i still think the conservatives will go for that because they see the weakness of the labor party and where does labor play out in all of this we heard now that jeremy corbyn is saying yes he might want to go on a go ahead with a general election what would likely be the result. it's for labor i think it could be disastrous he seems to be getting into the detail of that with just days nobody

wants to hear any detail the more it's a binary decision brags that now yes no and he's saying this deal that has been negotiated is worse than trees amazed that it would undermine workers' rights and so on in the u.k. because britain might want to sort of undercut the rest of the european union and becomes a competitive singapore in the thames but this is he's getting into detail at the end of the day people trust german core and i think the answer is really no and there's been this terribly damaging thing about the summit but i do some it is within the labor party labor party's been consuming itself i mean it almost doesn't need an opposition party like the tories it's fighting itself i don't really know how attractive a proposition labor is at the moment as leader but of course that's for the bridge voters to decide that labor but now has a relatively clear position it says it wants a 2nd year referendum it's taken labor 3 years to come to a relatively clear position so ultimately if you want to remain in the european union you can have relatively safely vote for either labor all the little democrats

or the greens or the scottish national party whichever might have the best chance in the constituency in which you live that might save them but a 2nd referendum 2 years ago perhaps by the fence enthusiasm at this stage even friends of mine who want to stay in the european union they say even they are saying that for exact on which is a classic tory populists expression clearly the outcome of any vote would depend on public opinion and as we're hearing opinion in britain is increasingly polarized let's hear the voices some of those who went onto the streets just this past week to speak out. a bit abrasive because i'm always on and. we don't want people in. the majority as we all pretty. rotten is a terrible deal for the country and it's a terrible deal for the poorest people in the country. as a bridge here i'm disgusted with those delays.

bush wants to push through for. a way where we can have a say on it just for starters road racer when he wants to be the guy to cross out before which of course you know where you were 3 fifths of all through the disco dilatory. the battle lines are drawn to what do is to be georgie in britain want. lets get ventilating to tell us that what the majority in britain want and given the level of polarization that we see there would a new election resolve anything at all. well it would give boris johnson probably a farm a mandate because remember he's not elected he's never been elected to the post of prime minister and at the moment the mood in the country seems to be that seems to be that the majority that he would get a majority if you will have elections tomorrow so he's of course keen on that

because it would strengthen him and strengthen his hold on. and if he did get a majority is there any chance that he would back out of this deal that the european research group the hard line breaks 6 years possibly would gain more influence that they could use to push through a kind of a no deal solution would you is there any chance we'd see some kind of radical development like that i think that's unlikely because although it's not a good deal in the forest johnson is afraid and he's worried about the chaos that could ensue with a no deal breaks and he's he's intelligent enough and pragmatic enough to know how dangerous it is and they could have not quite a civil war but i mean really chaotic scenes in britain so he's very keen to avoid all this grandstanding saying you know rather die that it will the all the stuff that he's been saying was just to apply more pressure it order to get a deal done he always wanted an agreement i'm i'm quite certain of that derek. we

talked about the majority of what they want in britain but where do people in scotland and ireland stand it has often been said that one of the terrible side effects of bracks it could be essentially breaking apart the united kingdom do you think that is where we're heading what are people in ireland in scotland saying now and what people in ireland were you know there's no good brags of but of all the briggs deals this is this is fine we just agree on this what was just the current break the deal because the primary achievement of the irish government in dublin was no border that the status quo for the last 20 years was preserved but there's a big asterisk beside that and that asterisk is that all this technical stuff of trade and collecting tyrus and in northern ireland we do we actually don't know how trade will work between the british isles and future so there's a big if when will this actually work and on the other hand people unarmed are wondering eventually people annoying i would realize have gotten the court quite

a sweetheart deal if it works but then the question is why didn't the scots go. we've already seen those coming out and so so the only intend to love and intended consequences could be that we kept the border open between northern ireland on the republic but what happens if scotland gets up some momentum and this is like the steroids that the nationalists in scotland have been needed to break away so you know we could have saved our in the broken of the u.k. . on our neighbor island so yeah who knows where it's going next to joe and there is a palpable sense longing for a resolution we heard max saying there's that that's the case in brussels we heard people in that film talking about their wish for yes resolution yet experts are saying that even if a breck's it deal goes through let's say by the end of the year or early next year there will still then be another chapter of wrangling of uncertainty

surrounding trade because. britain will then have to very quickly negotiate new bilateral trade agreements with the e.u. its biggest trading partner and with its long 4 partner the us is that process truly going to be as difficult and painful as what we've seen along the brics that it will probably be even worse although maybe it won't have quite the kind of public sort of debate it's going to be much more time consuming and much more complex than what we've seen so far and the idea should be that the framework for that deal should even be in place by the end of 2020 so just over 12 months from now which is impossible to achieve so ultimately we might get over this deadline now but we've got another deadline coming up in just over 12 months which is going to have to probably itself be extended and also if we look at for example it took the european union 7 years to negotiate a trade deal with canada and that was about much more minimal issues and britain is going to have to negotiate a trade deal with the european union so we're going to be looking at something of

upwards of 5 years to get everything sorted out for the trade deal between the u.k. and the european union if you're tired of brecht's it the best way is to say essentially hold a 2nd referendum and stay and then the least the sort of could if waiting for the next deadline will go away if you actually go through with this now and this is only the 1st of a series of deadlines which are going to be coming up in the next few years so maybe it won't be the topic of everyday discussion so much more but this is going to be a nightmare for a decade for the u.k. if they do see this through let's see whether either of your fellow guests think that that could really still be an option referendum and backing away from bracks it at all then dealing can you even imagine that that could still be an option i agree with eric i think that is highly unlikely but now i think it was a time let's say a year ago when there was a lot of momentum for a 2nd referendum and the economists in favor of that because we argued that the 1st

time they people really didn't know what they were voting on so so. we thought with a heavy heart because normally one obviously must respect the results of a referendum we thought a 2nd referendum is a good idea but i think by now the time was it's too late so that window of opportunity has closed and i think it's highly unlikely that derek in no way john's argument is premised on people voting on the basis of facts and projections and the clear the hell it's between costs and benefits of bracks that looks like it probably will be negative for great britain to put it mildly yet that's really not what people are deciding on the basis of is it aren't we looking at something that has become as we saw in the film absolutely emotional i think it always was emotional it's always been a very deep need it's a struggle within the british soul who are we are we part of something bigger are we better off alone and the detail is just distracting us and you can really see it

as you know living in our land we know the british quite well probably about another people in europe because of our interesting history but i find it really telling that nobody in britain really if any other country in europe held up a continent for 3 years i think some people would be embarrassed prop some people be ashamed some people might apologize they feel that they can do this for another 3 years perhaps and i don't know if the rest of europe is really interested would be more extensions and talk extension of the patients and so on but this notion that even be wanted in the european union at this stage nobody in britain seems to be asking that question it's one thing to say we'd like to stay as anyone else really want them at this stage because if they stay there would be effectively of political civil war in the country they will not be very productive european union members on the other side if they go occur and bearing in mind that there is a majority of the british population that wants to remain we saw more than 1000000 people on the streets of london just a week ago all being the case for remain in the european union unfolding

a 2nd referendum 60000000 not yet. yeah i know but you're not going to get a 1000000 leavers going out demonstrating and there's never been a group that kind of groundswell of support you with the biggest grassroots approach your movement of any european country is in the u.k. just now is it too late you might argue but bear in mind however there is no deal that you can get through the current house of commons because there is no majority for anything the only majority of it is for anything is against no deal and so ultimately what's your way of looking all of this you've tried to look it through parliamentary means over the last 3 years that's ultimately failed a new election may a lot but again as we've discussed it may not so ultimately the solution if you really can bear with it is essentially to say a new election remain parties try to manage to organize as best they can to try to at least deny the conservatives a majority and then you move forward to a 2nd referendum some point in the middle of 2020 because it might not be no use for the european union but stephanie the east west out this assumes the we didn't

have the detail back then and the whole purpose of a 2nd referendum is if people knew the detail they will vote differently people are not going to read to tito's ireland is the controversial end and people go and vote and referendum the european treaties and we ask them what they're voting on they haven't read anything but so were soon people will be will know that they have to detail with will willingly make themselves more informed than before but we've had 3 or 4 years of poise and they're just going to vote with their gut like this is the last time you got at the moment based on current opinion polls they will vote to remain but very tightly on their budget with a star like putting again but the other alternative putting britain out with an inadequate deal and with all of the tensions that we've discussed about a lot of it is also about solutions so ultimately you've got to choose the least worst solution here and the least with solution remains an election followed by by reference so that delayed let me get you to weigh in here and i'm going to come back to our title because. i'm going to ask all of you to answer that title question can westminster seal a deal is the title question john in

a way is saying no where do. you stand and if you say yes when and what's it going to look like oh go. to the point so yes i think westminster can strike at the end it's not going to be a good deal it's not going to be pretty but i think i think we are now maybe on the way of doing nothing when miss the big question i think the most likely deadline now is to 31st of january they are going to ask for an extension and then this is that the 1st of to i mean but i mean with the big question mark but that at the moment i think is the most likely. so my answer is yes it can strike a deal and the most likely that this is side effects of china. unfortunately i breaks my heart to say it but the european union is more important things not discussed than britain and britain's problems need to be solved in britain so i say we're having hard go with god but go and when when will it happen most of all because they're working a fact of what's really important the european union's future in the world trying to battle between populist trying to battle what's what's our security is your

water our migration policies what kind of europe do we want britain has been distracting us from. and in other words you're saying westminster will seal the deal and fair well. we might want to apologize for waste your time for 3 years but i don't really expect out of college and a lot of good talk shows haven't we john last word to you are you saying westminster won't seal a deal westminster once this westminster this composition the house of commons won't seal the deal it needs a general election after the general election you get this deal because boris johnson has strengthened or alternatively britain is on the track to a 2nd right. ok thanks very much to all of you will see his prediction comes true and thanks to you out there for joining in see you again on to the point.

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this starts november 6th on t w. this is d w news from berlin tonight nato's dilemma what to do about turkey what to do about turkey and russia at nato headquarters defense ministers are faced with one of their own turkey suddenly patrolling northern syria together with a nato adversary russia can the alliance endure this major test of its.