donald trump a lot of your were 2 part complementary analyzers the difficult relationship between russia and the west and between their presidents how does their rivalry and their dangerous mutual admiration for the rest of the. muslim beliefs trump and putin starts august 3rd on d w. it's being hailed as a pivotal moment for europe e.u. leaders agreement on a 750000000000 euro corona recovery package after a marathon 4 nights of heated negotiations the leaders struck a deal to provide 390000000000 euros in grounds and another 360 in low interest loans to member states hardest hit by the pandemic it will be financed by collective borrowing a paradigm shift for the e.u. will the deal hold the euro zone together or have member states simply papered over

the cracks in europe's foundations. carona recovery deal can the e.u. rebound that's our title. and it's a pleasure to welcome our guests eric is an american journalist who has written for the los angeles times amongst other media outlets and he says the summit exposed once again how much disunity there is in the european union. and we're very glad to have with us pavel took of till he took us to excuse me he is a polish economist and senior associate at the german institute for international and security affairs he says we must reform the member states now or will face the same problems again with less time and fewer instruments. and great to have with us once again. casting emily and she is deputy editor in chief is the parliamentary

bureau of the german newspaper so touched sayto and she says the deal is far from perfect but it is a signal that multilateralism is still alive. and let me start with you cast him and ask for your take on the big picture there are a lot of supra lives being thrown around here a historic a breakthrough chancellor merkel saying it's a huge step for the e.u. would you agree with all that i would say yes it's a huge step forward for drama new and also for do you because germany basically changed mind in giving out. and for loans but i would not miss all these people that are saying it's now a historic moment because i think history is written. on the path to form the form the future the historians have to jack rabbit it was historic for the moment now it

is a big problem how would you see it as an economist or suit as the most significant moment to do you print a comic integration since the creation of the euro because so far we've. financial systems which consist of loans you know we hear for grants and those grown so quite some substantial do something grown to 750000000000 fuels however from the economy perspective for mao i think that the most important things will be doing long be able to stop loss the bull market. thank you very much and we'll come back to that point a little bit later on eric how would you come down on this historic or less so what we just heard from pavel indicates it is indeed a very very big step how do you see all the mutualization of debt for the 1st time is a big big step it's something that was long overdue the e.u. could have done this a decade ago the eurozone crisis might not have been is fear as it was but on the other hand 5 days and 5 nights of negotiations for this deal that could have been

done in a day is a bit of a farce and it just showed the e.u. the e.u. is far from you know united in what the problems facing the e.u. and facing the world it's not really. making a very fit for the future when they take 5 days to get a decision like this done and i may say that i mean do you it's united otherwise you would not have a deal i mean i agree with you it was ready very difficult 5 days and 4 nights to negotiate small sign and but i'm sorry by the end does it do you want to be black eyed about trying to send a rod they never manage to make a deal and he has the you know made by 27 national member states one last big picture question to you pavel before we take a look at some of the details of this deal it was a compromise as both essentially have have conceded with significant tradeoffs made by pretty much all interested parties the question is whether the result justifies those concessions of course just as far as they're called concessions on the we

have to bear in mind that we have in the in the u. 20 s. of a different member states with different size different the comic systems and for some of these member states is really a huge step forward like from the mid to long before sweden to actually to go on to their common debt to come in come on the government come on move transfers which would go to the south so this is huge step forward to reach nobody in those compass expect that the police of this comes will have before us criticism at home so let us in fact now take a closer look at the corona recovery package and those north-south divisions that it provoked. it was clear they'd be a fight over the 750000000000 euro recovery fund and it exposed deep roots within the e.u. countries like italy and spain have been especially hard hit by the corona pandemic who had time to counter resistance from countries like the netherlands and austria that would prefer to save money to marathon negotiations they reduce the amount of

direct eye to $390000000000.00 for the 1st time the e.u. will issue common debt despite all the haggling the current president of the e.u. council was placed. that's just i think this is a clear signal that goes beyond europe that this very special structure this very special entity a european union consists of $27.00 member states that can act together despite their very different backgrounds and have proven they have the capacity to act hunt bad is a good sign that the visa and that's. what is the deal actually worth. you talked in your opening statement about the disunity exposed by this deal in fact there were moments where it looked as you said of course the 5 days as if there might not be a deal would you say those north-south divisions will leave lasting scars

absolutely it's not just north south now it's east west we saw a small groups of eastern european countries able to blackmail their interests we saw the small frugal zabel to force their interests through the e.u. used to be led by france and germany kind of leading the way and now people are getting away with in the wake of britain leaving the e.u. smaller countries are coming up with their special interests and it's a scary moment if you think the world where the world's going with china the united states these big power blocks in the e.u. here in the middle with 27 countries hadlee over small little details what is the e.u. going to be able to compete with these big countries in the world of the future. yeah i was sorry but i it's totally different actually what i see it does is bruv that liberalism is still alive i mean 27 member states make a deal and it's sure it took a very long time and you still have to division between south and north and east and west draw but i mean to special situation you know was did no money on to monch

germany was in one line with the matter lands austria and dismiss it countries that say day on froogle so actually germany was the leader in saying austerity and after the crisis suddenly there was a change in german politics and a big change so dramatically stepped away from a story. and went to the 22 fronts again and then they had 2 strong french german motorola that basically came out with this proposal to deliver a 500000000000 in grants and just was a big change i mean we were in fact told by the german press at least that the chancellor seemed to be favoring the colors of the tricorder treacle or the french red white and blue yet would you say that there is a lasting change here to the balance of power in europe in part due to chancellor merkel's decision to go to the other side i mean you see clearly if god wanted me

instead. of him it's not here anymore because great britain was also balancing as a big power the european decisions and i would not be sure that as a permanent shift from germany. to decide on decides on countries or doesn't become trees but on. the other side i would say this no i told it to really watch what germany do i mean dollar for big. economies now are left over in europe in union and they have to stay together otherwise the european internal market which is by the way the biggest in the road to break away. prevalent let's talk a bit about some of the economic details of the situation in which europe finds itself before the countries went into the summit the leaders went into the summit there was a lot of talk about the eurozone survival being at stake largely because of the divergence between northern and southern economies if we look at the current numbers germany

the netherlands it looks like they're going to see an economic contraction this year of around 6.5 percent spain and italy or more are almost double that so will this deal now close that gap the head of the european central bank has said that gap is putting the very survival of the euro in danger do you think the deal will get money to those southern countries in such a way and quickly enough that it can close that divergence. i salute greed of the diversion. not only in the euro area but especially of the single markets is a very. very bad thing and what's changed the minds of the leader of the summits i think it's was the throat above the. woods of the single market but some comes to us off the corner crisis we're actually developing. and the populists in those

countries can actually change the political lines of those countries so the economy divergence can cause social lot of divergence and social good of the of the day version can have a vote in the got to embark on the political unity of the you know and i think that's old of the deuce on the still did very well and that's why we have does this isn't the summit so let me ask you this eric. the dire economic prospects that are facing those southern european countries are not only of course due to corona they were macroeconomic weaknesses in spain and italy and elsewhere that preceded the crisis the. for we're determined to make sure that this recovery package essentially helps to remedy those macroeconomic weaknesses by imposing what's called conditionality do you think that we will see true reform on the basis of this deal i think they have to and i think the reason germany switch sides and

was suddenly in favor of collectivizing debt is because merkel realized this the corona is a one time thing it's an exceptional circumstance the problems with coronas not only because of the economic problems they're having before and you also realize piling more debt on these other states was going to drive them into into really dire straits so this is a one off perhaps we'll see but i think miracle also realized it was the right thing to do and there will be controls now the netherlands push this through that they will control with the conditionality make sure the money is being spent on things to help mitigate the impact of coronas so if you're a frugal person you have to say well ok we'll see how this works. not a bad deal could have been better but at least this will go for corona related issues next year america will be gone it's unlikely another conservative chancellor would do this again so i do think this is a one off this will be limited to the credit crisis and hopefully the money will go to the right places in these countries to help them overcome the credit crisis test

and $1.00 of the points of criticism for some observers it's what is what they're calling the governance architecture of this meeting those conditions that i mentioned that are supposed to ensure reform in the southern european economies that they're going to be essentially overseen by other e.u. leaders not by the institutions in brussels but by the european council itself isn't that a recipe for ongoing divisions and delays. i must say because it is actually possible that a different member states can. different country what kind of shit they have to do and what kind of films they have to do i mean do you opinion in all member states us of oil and national states and it's actually on possible that another state can tell you what to do on the other hand and i think that that was the reason why they had to find a compromise i mean taxpayers from all of them on national states got on teaching

these grants and the dept is a common dept in a way and that means also that german taxpayer us. taxpayers from the netherlands want to make sure that the money that this now on the table that would be spent on the life of a and i think it is also a common understanding that there has to be a kind of control we have of your opening statement referred to the need for reform in member states do you think this conditionality is going to do the job. i don't know is difficult to say because we have the next extreme time pressure on the member states will have to pick programs to get the money in the very short time and those programs will be also is by the group in commission by the member states so it's. difficult to say what kind of quality of his project will be and where the money will be spent the moment the institutional deficiency is most holding

european comes through that's going to be a challenge let me come to a different point all of you have mentioned the provisions for common debt basically the idea is that much of this recovery package will be financed by borrowing on the financial markets by the european union commission now when that proposal was 1st made to eric volz the german finance minister referred to it or essentially made the analogy to the so-called hamiltonian moment for you and me as americans i think a lot of us know about that moment because of the musical hamilton but let me just remind our visitors it was the moment in 17. when the very 1st treasury secretary of the united states persuaded those nascent american states still very young to accept common debt that essentially was the 1st step toward u.s. fiscal integration which is made the u.s. an absolute powerhouse also one international financial markets is the same thing

happening here. no this is a very very small step in the right direction but a small step in way too late that was 1719 the united states was able to florida blossom because of that promise and the promise to pay back all that debt the united states has always paid back the money it's borrowed and that's why the u.s. is such a great creditor and the e.u. has been hemming and hawing about this question for 2 decades now the euro's been around for 20 years but there's no collective debt and that's the fundamental flaw the fundamental weakness of the euro and they knew about this 10 years ago when the eurozone crisis flared out of them and talking about it ever since and now they're taking a small very baby step towards the hamiltonian moment hopefully it will be there will be something that will bring bring the give the euro some some power but i'm skeptical i doubt it's more than a one off in the here and a moment if i can just say this how tony moment wasn't actually a moment it was a process of fiscal integration that went on over decades into still not finished

in the u.s. yeah and i think the 1st stop loss in tokyo thing off the euro navi have to 2nd step is a common and i think you have to take a decision or you're a passive take the decision of either david continue and that day and also the next chance. that you perhaps it's a green one you never know how but you have to decide do we go straight on this way or do we stop and then we have to give up also does common currency i think the idea at the point that they have to take a decision that ridgeway public and i get you to weigh in very quickly on the coming debt is going to. i would like to remind this is not the 1st time to use issuing death sure it was you was assuring that for the last 10 years but that is going to be the biggest step you know it was only in small amounts it was only for loans and would be for the 1st time that is issuing the programs so this is this is new and the question is if we are the conditionality of that will be strong enough

for us and sultan dropped actually used this money properly because for some of them to be the last chance to reform the cops was there would be no 2nd chance so a lot riding on this and a lot riding on another aspect of the deal as well it wasn't only north-south tensions over frugality that nearly torpedoed the negotiations at the summit so too did east west divisions over linking e.q. funding to recipient countries compliance with european principles on democratic values and rule of law here's more. the text that has been agreed on the rule of law has improved. it's a very clear in the document a very clear commitment to the rule of law and a very clear commitment to the protection of the financial interests of the union and the rich try to make a connection between the rule of law. was. it was

successfully rejected. so cast in pretty contradictory assertion is there still a fun there law in viktor orbán who's right it basically everybody did win because we have a close now in this statement off off does that meant that say ok we have to put the paying. off law to fulfilling the role of law 5 deaths a little 2nd sentence which says ok but the member states have to decide so basically also left on the line described by saying ok we dedicated our money to to guarantee that the states had to get the money. in line we so want to throw a desk also some truth to it which is they going to direct it but he can veto such a decision. let me ask you again your opening state statement talked about the need

for reform and also your concern about whether there are enough instruments in the toolbox of the e.u. to compel reform now your own country poland has been under ongoing pressure from brussels for its effort to undermine the independence of the judiciary will this deal change anything. i don't think that there was state of change in this incursion unfortunately to you has no real instruments to influence comes just like poland and hungary and you budget your finances are unfortunately we can still want to do that in the last budget to do it in the last financial framework up to similar instruments so-called micro konami conditionality to influence the economic policies of member states and it's proved to be actually toothless so i don't think that's doing the next 3 years that you will be managed to stop of coaches get to further destroy the positions to let me just follow up on that there are

also currently legal proceedings ongoing with european union member countries that have not complied with all of law and those are not yet resolved taken together if they were resolved against the countries if they were found not to be in compliance together with what is it lisa now a principle of linkage in this deal could that start to change things i don't think that the current government in poland really making 2 step for was on the way to destruction of the rule of law in one state because when the pressure from the brussels just would be high. again the president of the wrong about you won the elections since he has a full public palumbo and he can do everything he wants with the judiciary and the efforts that the next step will be published in the in the middle eric you haven't been overly optimistic so far about the agreement we do differ without analysis or

do you also think this is toothless i think it's a nightmare that these eastern european countries were able to water down things and countries that are trampling on. state his rule of law limiting press freedom limiting judicial freedom it's a worrisome development and they got away with it and you know how can i. everybody there be a winner how can all $27.00 countries walk away as winners i don't get it there's always a winner and there's a loser but they all claim to be winners of the e.u. summit if i bring if i can never very easy to. imagine trying to 7 families are living in a big house has 27 apartments so everybody that owns an apartment has its own bottoms so do you some europeans have i don't know problems with sivin though they have problems as design by counties and on the basements they have also problems i don't know with the water coming in and everybody is saying oh this is my biggest pop and yes and so at the end the 27 owners off these apartments in the big

european house agreed on the blend it just dedicated to fix the whole house that if it happened or not is a different question but display and basically helps to fix the house and in that way everybody can be given a because everybody everybody can still listen that power to one of those voters can block the whole thing and that's the whole we know that is over so far not because everybody else to 7 signed disagreement after off. the whole thing let me let me ask you for me as a lawyer this is a big provision i grant that the conditionality relating to rule of law yet it is now in a document that will have a certain legal value going forward does that not establish some kind of lever that could perhaps be strengthened over time could be could be that exactly that didn't happen but we have to see that i mean i think that was the best deal they could get out it's not eat idea fall farm idea but it is

a deal perhaps it will have and perhaps the water is drowning in they do more with this deal still has to be approved by the e.u. parliament do you think we'll see any changes i don't think that when these are the changes because the government did this money destruction of the public promises very broad so they will be very happy to. received just 160000000000 euros so very briefly i want to come back to our title the question was will this help the e.u. rebound casting gave us the great analogy of the common house would you say the foundations are at all stronger do this this deal you know the collectivization of debt was a big step forward and that's something to cheer about they still have to vote on the house. and i'm not going to get out of the question altogether he's having a you more resilient i mean not to do you know a side of that summit is that you is still existing that. rather it's small as an infant seat. from their color perspective is different it's

a more resilient to be intervention shift national package on the top of your package which mike makes the. possible economic crisis or the crisis. for the probable it's often said by you leaders that it's time for europe to speak with a common voice and to play a stronger role in the world does this deal help it at all to do that well the one that you used to think economically stronger than the for the teams would be if you have a stronger voice in those so that you should also increase the international the importance of the common currency so social very crucial for you thank you very much to all of you for being with us for this discussion thanks to all of you out there for tuning in see you soon.

as. a member of.

that people hold on for information they provide the opinions i think want to express g.w. on facebook and twitter up to date and in touch follow us. in the army of climate change. cutting massive.

cuts to. punish the dears do they have no further future efforts to. cut. the money dot com traffic and make a city the meeting a good. cause. the turk. has a virus spread. why do we have it and when we'll all miss him. just 3 of the topics covered and i weekly radio show is called spectrum if you would like and new information on the coronavirus or any other science topic you should really check out our podcast you can get it wherever you can get your podcast you can also find us at. tom foreman slash science.

i've. i've. i've. i've. i've. i've fixed i. all we can be the generation that ends it good malaria must start so millions can live.

this is. down fuelling fury in the u.s. city of portland president says the deployment of federal forces that. will be increased to include other cities where he says they need to restore law and order lose politically motivated to create even more. risk on the streets of india as corona virus cases the pandemic is pushing the country children.