because of course her street high it's where my husband went to peru because of the crisis. if you hadn't gone there we would have died of hunger. plan a sentiment i wanted down it was. just starts october 16th to dog you. would be preparing for war in taiwan. the taiwanese military forces training for a scenario they hope will never happen a chinese invasion from across the sea at the thing at taiwan's president herself a time when it comes to rally the troops that. taiwan

has good reason to worry facing its giant neighbor across a narrow strait of water. this year chinese warplanes have flown the close to taiwan over and over again. prodding until taiwanese fighters intercepted. and out of chinese warships to the sense of constant threat. because i one has lived with that threat for more than 70 years but now it's rising to a new level and the world needs to pay attention. under president xi jinping china has been flexing its muscles more and more openly not just on occasions like it 70th anniversary parade this year in one of the most remote places in the world china's mountainous border zone with india out of the blue a sudden escalation in tensions between chinese and indian troops. left dozens of

people dead china's defense ministry published videos of its forces training in tibet the message seeming to be we're ready for anything that relations with the united states have soured to the brink of imbue cold war with donald trump and she jinping at loggerheads over a huge range of issues within its own borders to the northwest china has ignored international condemnation of reeducation camps part of a sweeping crackdown on its weaker minority. and in hong kong since a wave of protests began last year china moved more and more aggressively to assert direct control of this former british colony. and this summer the arrests of communication greeks began after a new national security law stripped away many of hong kong's freedom. of the people. of this crackdown in hong kong is what's most chilling of all for taiwan

china sees the self-governing democratic island off its southeastern coast as a province of its own a place that must be brought under its control and here's the thing china says that it reserves the right to take taiwan by force in a speech just last year president xi jinping framed the threat like this woman portrayed function. follows how it should be all sorts of the shoe shop. no wonder people in taiwan are increasingly worried i think china is in the moment of expansion. trying to expand out work the threat is very real and therefore are taiwan's critical ration it's also very serious what is unfolding tang on right now i think gave us a hot last and that. we really need to do better to safeguard our democracy 2020 to

2030 is the most dangerous time in my opinion for a conflict china over these disputed territory and as we'll see it's far from certain that taiwan would get any help if china did mountainous hack so in this video we're going to ask what could actually happen we're going to examine 3 possible scenarios guided by experts who've been studying the risks the years ranging from china chipping away at taiwan's defenses to a marquee annexation of an outlying island crimea style and in the final and most dangerous scenario an all out invasion something that could not only be a disaster for taiwan but bring china and the us to the brink of the big change the world everything that happens in medicine already happened under the shadow of a potential nuclear war because that's what this could be some of what we're going

to see in here is genuinely frightening but if this year has taught us anything it's that nightmare scenarios can happen and it's better to be prepared europeans need to start planning. and many to think through what their actions could look like before we get into those scenarios we're going to deal with 2 important questions why does china want to take over taiwan and 1st of all what is taiwan. it sounds like a really basic question but this is no ordinary place there's nowhere like it anywhere in the world. this story takes us back to 949 when the island was known as for most or not out of the china sea years barbosa wanted all mob asiatic pirates and headed. to the heart mountain mostly by learning about the size of massachusetts and connecticut come by

it was the aftermath of the 2nd world war and mauser dongs communists had one victory in china's civil war a conflict that had dragged on for more than 2 decades the defeated nationalists led by chiang kai shek found refuge on time one with a plan to regroup and now to fight back. charm of action to launch the attack that will drive out the communist chiang side was supported by the united states but that dream of conquering china turned out to be a fantasy instead with the cold war came a kind of stalemate. all along both chiang and insisted that there was only one china and that they were the rightful ruler of it. chiang was a fervent anti communist but he was no democrat he will taiwan as a military dictatorship right up until his death in 1975. it was only

under this man lead time play for taiwan began moving towards democracy. rivington play is being described by the international community and also view a lot here in taiwan as the father of time with modern day democracy and why is that he is the key person who really kicked off a step by step democratize ation from the early ninety's up until the night in 96 when he helped the 1st democratic presidential election in taiwan history. and of course he won that election by a very comfortable margin and he just went on through further consolidate all the democratic institutions here in taiwan police reforms were a historic turning point for taiwan. ever since taiwan has made huge economic strides and flourished into an open even raucous democratic society of almost 24000000 people. and how to deal with china has been one of the major battlegrounds

of taiwanese democratic policies from 2008 to 2016 former president ma ying joked pursued a policy of trying to improve relations with china. economic ties grew stronger. but eventually there was a black. student protest called the sunflower movement sprang up in 2014 accusing maher of going too far with a major chinese trade agreement. people feared it would make taiwan too dependent on h e. m d a lection 2 years later signed whenever the opposition d.p.p. party swept to office and she became taiwan's 1st female leader on a platform that was far more critical of china and confidently asserting taiwan's distinct identity oh i think that we don't know what. so why do.

so. own thoughts. joseph says foreign minister consignments government he spoke to g.w. in taipei you understand that i want to start run by china we elect our own government our presidents democratic democratically elected our parliament is also democratically elected we have ministry of all foreign affairs that engages with the international community so taiwan is not run by china taiwan is not part of the p.r.c. and that is the fact that doesn't go down at all well in beijing we spoke to experts . who runs a think tank is close to the government they are really thinking more. separation from china you know there are a lot of. things that the current regime is doing that really not good for the

for the course trade relations. but public opinion in taiwan seems to be moving in size to rection. people are identifying not according to chinese roots but is taiwanese in may 2020 the pew research center did a survey among how many people and the number the percentage of people identifying themselves as taiwanese just again growth to be here 3 high while the number of people identifying themselves as chinese continue to. just decline and i think that again just reflects the growing generational difference between the younger generation which considers the importance of maintaining their identity bertha's the ordinary from which still feels like a part of their life has a very deep connection to china meanwhile taiwan successes have continued to add up just one example its high tech economy is home to see the world's most advanced

silicon chip maker driving a huge proportion of the world's smartphones in the coronavirus pandemic taiwan's affective response has become the envy of the world. and his society has opened up in striking ways even becoming the 1st place in asia to legalize same sex marriage and 29. you would think that for other liberal democracies like here in the west taiwan would be a natural friend and ally well think again only 15 countries in the world recognise taiwan as a sovereign state most of them are tiny but the rest long ago switch recognition to china even in europe the home of proud democracies britain switch recognition to china way back in 1950 france did the same in 1964 and germany followed suit in 1972 in fact the only country in europe that has full diplomatic

relations with taiwan. if the vatican population $820.00 fine because if we think about taiwan as a place and what kind of place it is then it is a vibrant democracy it is a tax superpower. closed to china export and p.e.c.s. phone line it is a country that is just playing a role in the global system or could play a role in the global system that would be quite substantial and very close to where europe in a lot of the conversations and so it is quite surprising in a way that our relations are not as close as they could be. which any attempts by european countries to strengthen ties with taipei to meet with powerful pushback from china. during a recent visit to taiwan by a group of lawmakers from the czech republic china's foreign minister threatened that the delegations leader would pay a heavy price. for

. the. trip. likewise china's influence means taiwan is frozen out of key international bodies including the united nations the same goes for the world health organization which has been especially frustrating for taiwan during the coronavirus pandemic the chinese government was able to mobilize. in the international organization to block that was participation normally the home many like minded countries there are helping taiwan we think that the. boycott or school of tell people from participating in this international waters asians it's not fair to that when its people taiwan's diplomatic isolation deepened profoundly in 1979 u.s.

president jimmy carter welcomed dung sharping to the white house and switched diplomatic recognition from taipei to beijing. the u.s. didn't abandon taiwan completely it softened the blow some reassurances on defense but crucially those reassurances are far from watertight one is that the united states would provide defensive weapons and services to taiwan as necessary and did not define what defenses and glazer is an expert on taiwan and china at the c s i s think tank in washington. and then the 2nd obligation is to maintain the united states at south are and their military capability in the west pacific. to prevent intimidation and coercion against taiwan now notably that is not a commitment to come to taiwan's defense in the event that it is attacked it means

that the united states is a sort of hof ally for taiwan. it sold large amounts of weapons to taipei over the decades something that stepped up a gear under the trumpet ministration we see is. more serious than ever in their commitment to peace and stability in this region the united states speaking regularize is on sale to taiwan whenever we have an item to request the united states to make available to taiwan they review it right away. make it available to taiwan after that review period so it's being a quite regular. very much. but in the meantime china has become dramatically powerful as proudly displayed on the streets of beijing making it pose a far greater threat to taiwan the taiwanese military is completely too often comparison and adding to the challenge it doesn't even have enough influence in.

the armed forces have been producing videos like this to try to drum up infuse yes among potential young soldiers but they've been struggling to make up for a shortfall left by phasing out of conscription. so that's where taiwan stands right now in 2020 a striking success story in many ways and yet incredibly vulnerable to china. so now to our next question why does china want to take over taiwan. it's 2015 and blurry footage from china's state media starts to circulate around. well. it shows a military exercise at a remote desert base but there's one thing that seizes attention. that building in

the background of various shots looked very familiar to people in taiwan. is appear to be modeled on the presidential office in taipei. a symbol of taiwan self government. satellite imagery latest seem to confirm the similarity. taiwan made official protests but china brush them off saying the trial was just a routine exercise and yet there's nothing hidden or new about china's desire to take control of time. this goes back all the way to the unfinished business of the chinese. as we saw earlier both map and chiang kai shek said there was only one china and de with the rightful leader others and even today one china remains as sacrosanct principle for beijing his ability to share the same language sure the same culture the shared some background and there's nobody to be even system as

seen from beijing with hong kong having returned to china in 1997 taiwan will be the last piece in the puzzle for china's restoration as a unified great nation overcoming the legacy of historical scots and one in the china actually in the past. 10200 years john has fought for foreign powers has been humiliated by many western powers. so also i think that it's important that china maintain. a unified country and a particularly when china now has already become. a more prosperous more economically developed and so that you know people can read. enjoying the. benefits. maybe. but there's more to this the nationalism of identity taiwan's position in the

so-called 1st island chain skirting china's southeast makes it highly important from a strategic point of view. controlling it could fatally undermine america's current power in the region and of taiwan all. want to be occupied by the ordinary analysts in eastern wrote a book the chinese invasion threats working through 3 strategic questions and become the possible to do. our entire network of. that how do we. talk to real i will. because at any time they could be invaded. and conversely controlling taiwan would be crucial for china shoring up its own position china would be quite fearful if another country had forces on taiwan because then it would have. in a sense

a base place where force quit be projected against china and that is the biggest fear that china has. now if the chinese were able to occupy taiwan that were aid them in projecting force and preventing interference by foreign forces and particularly the united states in 2005 china make this a matter of national look the national people's congress agreed on an anti secession little to declare we unifying the motherland as the sacred duty of chinese people taiwanese compactly it included. it was passed like 2896 votes to 0 john is going to pass a law to take this risk seriously and there is

a strong we were 1.31.4000000000 people. behind this the national people's congress or that. you know you you know they were not tolerate any session the law held out the prospect of a homecoming style approach of one country 2 systems china you know one cons why country 2 system china would lead. taiwan to do whatever i think anomic is side and and also a free enterprise is capitalist whatever that matter would not be really impressed by china so long as the sovereignty is within one china policy the system time can keep its existing system without changing the recent experience with one country 2 systems has left the concept in serious doubt and on to xi jinping the threat of resorting to force against taiwan is quite open as we saw earlier. function

would be. egypt beyond source of the shooting. and the latest national people's congress only added to fears that the threat was becoming more explicit so i think you know i think send a signal that of course china wants to have a future. but you know we're not this ambiguity in china's messaging and in the anti secession lloyd self leaves a lot open to interpretation so it's not completely clear what china's red lines are but the most important. of the circumstances i believe is the one that is completely open ended and that is in the antisocial are basically says that if over time taiwan does not agree to unify our peace. then force can be used to achieve that goal and that is really one that is quite

worrisome and with every passing year china's military has been getting stronger with massive investments in exactly the sorts of weapons that it would need to invade taiwan and crucially to deter a repel any american attempt to stop it james final was chief of intelligence for the u.s. pacific fleet until 2015 he recalls how he watched the chinese navy grow since the beginning of his career and the chinese maybe at that time had a few ships. from the north sea fleet but really nothing else that concerned us now 30 years later the chinese navy is larger than u.s. navy in terms of total number of ships. and they certainly are outpacing the maybe the u.s. navy in the western. shore and for the last 5 years plus they've been producing literally 5 times as many ships per year as the u.s. navy produces. those ships include 2 aircraft carriers and many of these amphibious

warfare ships the sort of vessel that could bring marines to time once caught. and china has the edge in crucial missiles to shoot missiles designed to destroy precisely the kinds of ships that the u.s. might use to defend taiwan they invested a lot of time and energy to become the world's leading leaders to cruise missile technology they have these every ship cruise missiles like the white tree which has a 300 kilometer mile range it's longer than anything that united states. right now and it's also supersonic and it has these high. capabilities that can do the kinds of systems close in weapons systems and they've built them you know by the truckload it's essentially so take all this together and china's dramatic military build up hasn't just totally outdone taiwan it's even made it

a serious rival to the united states in the pacific even 5 years ago the ability of the united states to come to taiwan's defense was greater than it is today. and power shifting in china's favor the prospect looms larger that it will decide to act james final says there's even a kind of historical deadline on the horizon the 100th anniversary of communist china in 2049 i believe that whoever is the leader of the people's republic of china on 1 october 29th is going to stand up and burn of the propensity to give a speech to the people who are trying a 1000000000 plus people and that person is going to have to say we have achieved a great rejuvenation of china and we are now completely restored in order to race the shame of the century of humiliation for dell argues that any invasion would have to take place within the next decade for the dust to settle in time for that

momentous date my theory is if you could take 20 years is the time that the world will forget anything then you back that up from 2049 you're basically at 2030 and so i've characterized what we're in right now it's just begun it's the decade of concern 20202030 is the most dangerous time and there are my opinion for a conflict with china over these disputed territory china's leadership has the motivation and increasingly has to meet to make a military move against taiwan so what might china actually do. coming up in part 2 weeks i mean 3 scenarios 1st chipping away at taiwan's resolve by military and hybrid means. they're constantly getting taiwan with. this information misinformation. and of course. the hope i thank you beijing.

i want to. mention just. in scenario 2 russia's crimea playbook inspires a shadowy takeover of adeline island. then people. know. and so it creates a very serious dilemma for the marine and army troops. that make errors in their do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point do they start shooting. and finally in scenario 3 a full scale invasion. so you'd have 1st initially a joint strike campaign which would launch in all these missiles it would just be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use it for why maybe tend to want to make sure that every defensive position in taiwan had been attacked every

airfield been cratered every naval port stable and we hear warnings that these dangers could come much sooner than we might think. and if you look at the internal situation in china at this moment. he says being affected by. the chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan us accompanying a scapegoat and therefore taiwan needs to be constant about the chinese possible use of force against us that's all the 2 of taiwan china that's next talk it.

begins with the 1st step. every language but the 1st word published in the book. the coach is in germany to learn german why not simple online on your mobile and free to sapps d w z e learning course nikos fake german made. this is so no story stubborn rice farmer from thailand. his problem. his crew go no chemicals. and was. the students are focused don't stand a chance. train in successful. talk to me starts october 15th.

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