and there are many stories. make up your. made for minds. preparing for war in taiwan. taiwanese military forces training for a scenario that they hope will never happen the chinese invasion from across the sea. taiwan's president herself in time when it comes to

rally the troops. taiwan has good reason to worry facing its giant neighbor across a narrow street of water. this year chinese warplanes have flown close to taiwan over and over again probing the product until taiwanese fighters intercept. and out at sea chinese warships to the sense of constant threat. because i one has lived with that threat for more than 70 years but now it's rising to a new level and the world needs to pay attention. under president xi jinping china has been flexing its muscles more and more openly not just on occasions like it 70th anniversary parade this year in one of the most remote places in the world china's mountainous border zone with india out of the

blue a sudden escalation in tensions between chinese and indian troops left dozens of people dead china's defense ministry published videos of its forces training in tibet the message seeming to be we're ready for anything the relations with the united states have soured to the brink of imbue cold war with donald trump and she jinping at loggerheads over a huge range of issues within its own borders to the northwest china has ignored international condemnation of reeducation camps part of a sweeping crackdown on its weaker minority. and in hong kong since a wave of protests began last year china moved more and more aggressively to assert direct control of this former british colony. and this summer the arrests of prominent regime critics began after

a new national security door stripped away many of hong kong's freedoms. for. this crackdown in hong kong is what's most chilling of all for taiwan china. sees the self-governing democratic island off its southeastern coast as a province of its own a place that must be brought under its control and here's the thing china says that it reserves the right to take taiwan by force in a speech just last year president xi jinping framed the threat like this woman which will not function. barlow's how much should be your choice of the shoe shop. no wonder people in taiwan are increasingly worried i think china is in the moment of expansion. trying to expand our work the threat is very real and bill for our taiwan's percolation is also very serious what is unfolding

tongues on right now i think gave us a hot lesson that we really need to do better to safeguard our democracy 20202030 is the most dangerous time in my opinion for a conflict china over these disputed territory and as we'll see it's far from certain that taiwan would get any help if china did mountainous hack so in this video we're going to ask what could actually happen we're going to examine 3 possible scenarios guided by experts who've been studying the risks for years ranging from china chipping away at taiwan's defenses to a marquee annexation of an outlying island crimea style and in the final and most dangerous scenario an all out invasion something that could not only be a disaster for taiwan but bring china and the us to the brink of

a rule change the world everything that happens in medicine already happened under the shadow of a potential nuclear war because that's what this could be some of what we're going to see in here. is genuinely frightening but if this year has taught us anything it's that night messin oreo's can happen and it's better to be prepared europeans are planning. to think through what their actions could look like before we get into those scenarios we're going to deal with 2 important questions why does china want to take over taiwan and 1st of all what is taiwan it sounds like a really basic question but this is no ordinary place there's nowhere like it anywhere in the world. this story takes us back to 949 when the island was known as for most or not out of the

china sea years barbosa one stockholm of asiatic pirates and head up to the heart mountainous leadership island the size of massachusetts and connecticut combine it was the aftermath of the 2nd world war and mao zedong's communists had one victory in china's civil war a conflict that had dragged on for more than 2 decades the defeated nationalists led by chiang kai shek found refuge on taiwan where they planned to regroup and mount a fight back from charm helped to launch the attack that will drive out the garbage chuang side was supported by the united states but that dream of conquering china turned out to be a fantasy instead with the cold war came a kind of stalemate. all along both chiang and wow insisted that there was only one china and that they were the rightful ruler of it. chiang was a fervent anti communist but he was no democrat he will taiwan is

a military dictatorship right up until his death in 1975. it was only under this man lee tang quake for taiwan began. moving towards democracy. writing can play is being described by the international community and with a view a lot here in taiwan the father of taiwan's modern day democracy and why is that he is the key person who really kicked off a step by step democratize the nation from the early ninety's up until the night in 96 when he held the 1st democratic presidential election in taiwan history and of course he won that election by a very comfortable margin and he just went on through further consolidate all the democratic institutions here in taiwan lease reforms were a historic turning point for taiwan. ever since taiwan has made huge economic

strides and flourished into an open even raucous democratic society of almost 24000000 people. and how to deal with china has been one of the major battlegrounds of taiwanese democratic politics from 2008 to 2016 former president pursued a policy of trying to improve relations with china. economic ties grew stronger. but eventually there was a black. student protest called the sunflower movement sprang up in 2014 accusing maher of going too far with a major chinese trade agreement. people feared it would make taiwan too dependent. mines in the election 2 years later signed when the opposition d.p.p. party swept to office she became taiwan's 1st female leader on a platform that was far more critical of china and confidently asserting taiwan's

distinct identity oh i think that was. so that was. so. joseph says foreign minister consignments government he spoke to g.w. in taipei you understand that i want to run by china we elect our own government our president democratically democratically elected our parliament is also democratically elected we have ministry of foreign affairs that engages with the international community so taiwan is not run by china taiwan is not part of the p.r.c. and that is the fact that doesn't go down at all well in beijing we spoke to expert wang who young who runs a think tank is close to the government they are really thinking more.

separation from china you know there's a lot of. things that the current situation is doing that really not good for the cause trade relations. but public opinion in taiwan seems to be moving in size to rection. people are identifying not according to chinese roots but as taiwanese in may 2020 the pew research center did a survey among how many people and the number and the percentage of people identifying themselves as taiwanese just again growth to be here 3 while the number of people identifying themselves as chinese continue to. decline and i think that again just reflects the growing generational difference between the younger generation which considers the importance of maintaining their identity bertha's the order in which still feels like a big part of their life has a very deep connection to china meanwhile taiwan successes have continued to add up

just one example it's high tech economy is home to see the world's most advanced silicon chip maker driving a huge proportion of the world's smartphones in the coronavirus pandemic taiwan's affective response has become the envy of the world. and his society has opened up in striking ways even becoming the 1st place in asia to legalize same sex marriage and 29. you would think that for other liberal democracies like here in the west taiwan would be a natural friend and ally well think again only 15 countries in the world recognise taiwan as a sovereign state most of them are tiny but the rest of long ago switch recognition to china even in europe home of proud democracies britain's which recognition to china way back in 1950 france did the same in 1964 and germany

followed suit in 1972 in fact the only country in europe that has full diplomatic relations with taiwan. is the vatican population $825.00 because if we think about taiwan as a place and what kind of place that is then it is a vibrant democracy it is a tax superpower. junko is a china expert in the e.c.f. financing. it is a country that is just playing a role in the global system or could play a role in the global system that would be quite substantial and very close to where europe asked in a lot of the conversations and so it is quite surprising in a way that relations are not as close as they could. reach any attempts by european countries to strengthen ties with taipei to meet with powerful pushback from china . during a recent visit to taiwan by

a group of lawmakers from the czech republic china's foreign minister threatened that the delegations leader would pay a heavy price. for . the. truth. likewise china's influence means taiwan is frozen out of key international bodies including the united nations for same goes for the world health organization which has been especially frustrating for taiwan during the coronavirus pandemic the chinese government was able to bungle lies. in the international organisation to block that was participation normally the whole mini like my country so there are helping taiwan we think that the you know we caught or school of tell our people from participating in this international waters ations it's not

fair to the i want to speak taiwan's diplomatic isolation deepen profoundly in 1979 u.s. president jimmy carter welcomed dunk shopping to the white house and switched diplomatic recognition from taipei to beijing. the u.s. didn't abandon taiwan completely it softened the blow some reassurances on defense but crucially those reassurances are far from watertight one is that the united states would provide defensive weapons and services to taiwan as necessary and did not define what defense is now and plays a is an expert on taiwan and china at the c s i s think tank in washington. and then the 2nd obligation is to maintain the united states at south are and their military capability in the west pacific. to prevent intimidation and coercion

against taiwan now notably that is not a commitment to come to taiwan's defense in the event that it is attacked it means that the united states is a sort of hof ally for taiwan. it sold large amounts of weapons to taipei over the decades something that stepped up again under the trumpet ministration we see is. more serious than ever in their commitment to peace and stability in this region the united states speaking regularize is arm sell to taiwan whenever we have an item to request the united states to make available to taiwan they review it right away. make it available to taiwan after that review period so it's being quite regular. that very much. but in the meantime china has become dramatically more powerful as proudly displayed on the streets of beijing making it pose

a far greater threat to taiwan the taiwanese military is completely to war fighting comparison and adding to the challenge it doesn't even have an office or. the armed forces have been producing videos like this to try to drum up infusions among potential young soldiers but they've been struggling to make up for a shortfall left by phasing out of conscription. so that's where taiwan stands right now in 2020 a striking success story in many ways and yet incredibly vulnerable to china. so now to our next question why does china want to take over taiwan. it's 2015 and blurry footage from china's state media starts to circulate around the world. it shows

a military exercise and 2 remote desert base but there's one thing that seizes attention from that building in the background in various shots looked very familiar to people in taiwan. is appeared to be modeled on the presidential office in taipei the symbol of taiwan self-government. satellite imagery later seem to confirm the similarity. one made official protest but trying to brush them off saying the trial was just a routine exercise and yet there's nothing hidden or new about china's desire to take control of time or this goes back all the way to the unfinished business of the chinese civil war. as we saw earlier both man and chiang kai shek are. said there was only one china and they with the rightful leader of and even today one

china remains as pushing principle for beijing has a bill this year the same language sure the same culture the shared sent back rock and the just somebody the defense system has seen from beijing with hong kong having returned to china in 1907 taiwan would be the last piece in the puzzle for china's restoration of the unified great nation overcoming an legacy of historical stuff. i went into china actually in the past. 10200 years china has fought for the foreign powers and has been humiliated by many western powers in the past so so i think that it's important that china maintain. a unified country and the particular one china now has already become. a more prosperous and more economically developed and so that you know people can really enjoying the. benefits of the becoming one great greater china to unify

was. made on. but there's more to this the nationalism and identity taiwan's position in the so-called 1st island chain china southeast makes it highly important from a strategic point of view controlling it could fatally undermine america's current power in the region and if. one were to be occupied. with voyager analysts in eastern boto book the chinese invasion threat working through 3 strategic questions and to become. our. real are we. at any time they could be. there

and conversely controlling taiwan would be crucial for china shoring up its position china would be quite fearful if another country had forces on taiwan because then it would have. in a sense a base place where force crude be protected against china and that is the biggest fear that china has. now if the chinese were able to occupy . that were there in projecting force and preventing interference by foreign forces and particularly the united states in 2005 china made this and matter of national look the national people's congress agreed on an anti secession will the declared reunifying the motherland as the sacred duty of chinese people taiwanese compactly it's included. it was

passed by 2896 votes to 0 to chinese government possible law to take this risk seriously and there's a strong we will have 1.31.4000000000 people that are behind this. national people's congress or that. you know you you know they will not tolerate any succession the law held out the prospect of a hong kong style approach of one country 2 systems china you know one comes one country 2 system china would lead. taiwan to do whatever i think anomic is side and and also free enterprise is capitalist whatever that it would not be really impressed by china so i as long as the sovereignty is within one china policy the system time can keep its existing system without changing. experience with one country 2 systems has left the concept to reestablish and under siege and paying

the threat of resorting to force against taiwan is quite open as we saw earlier. find the body with hi to you chippy all sorts of issues jump. and the latest national people's congress only added so fierce that the threat was becoming more explicit so i think you know they're there which i think send a signal that of course china wants to have a piece. but you know we're not this ambiguity in china's messaging and in the anti secession lloyd self leaves a lot open to interpretation so it's not completely clear what china's red lines are but the most important. circumstances i believe is the one that is completely open ended and that is in the antisocial are

basically says over time taiwan does not agree to unify peacefully then force can be used to achieve that goal and that is really the one that is quite worrisome and with every passing year china's military has been getting stronger with massive investments in exactly the sorts of weapons that it would need to invade taiwan and crucially to deter repel any american attempt to stop it james finale was chief of intelligence for the u.s. pacific fleet until 2015 he recalls how he watched the chinese navy grow since the beginning of his career and the chinese navy that time had a few ships from the north sea but really nothing else that concerned us now 30 years later the chinese navy is larger than us navy in terms of total number of ships. and they certainly are outpacing the maybe the us maybe in the western.

fleet where i'm sure and for the last 5 years plus they've been producing literally 5 times as many ships per year as the u.s. navy produces. those ships include 2 aircraft carriers and many of these amphibious will fetch ships the sort of vessel that could bring marines to tom watson. and china has the aging crucial missiles to the stars designed to destroy precisely the kinds of ships that the u.s. might use to defend taiwan they've invested a lot of time and energy to become the world's leading leaders to cruise missile technology they have every ship cruise missiles like the white tree which has a 300 kilometer mile range that's longer than anything that united states. right now and it's also supersonic and it has these high can bring capabilities that can defeat the kinds of systems close in weapons systems and they've built them you know by the truckload sensually so take all this together and china is dramatic

military build up hasn't just totally outgunned taiwan it's even made it a serious rival to the united states in the pacific even 5 years ago the ability of the united states to come to taiwan's defense was greater than it is today. and with the balance of power china's favor the prospect looms larger that it will decide to act james final says there's even a kind of historical deadline on the horizon the 100th anniversary of communist china in 2049 i believe that whoever is the leader of the people's republic of china on 1 october 29th is going to stand up in front of the propensity and give a speech to the people who are trying a 1000000000 plus people and that person is going to have to say we have achieved a great rejuvenation of china and we are now completely restored in all the races

the shame of the century of humiliation for the l. argues than any invasion would have to take place within the next decade for the dust to settle in time for that momentous date my theory is if you could take 20 years is that the time that the world will forget anything then you back that up from 2049 you're basically at 2030 and so i've characterized what we're in right now it's just begun it's the decade of concern 20202030 is the most dangerous time and there are in my opinion for a conflict with china over these disputed territory china's leadership has the motivation and increasingly has the means to make a military move against taiwan so what might china actually do. coming up in part 2 weeks i mean 3 scenarios 1st chipping away for taiwan's result by military and hybrid means. they're constantly getting taiwan with. this

information misinformation. and of course. the hope by thank you beijing. i want to. mention just. in scenario 2 the russians crimea playbook inspires a shadowy takeover of outlying islands. while rushing to green then people go in. and so it creates a very serious problem. for the marine army troops that are that they care isn't there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point do they start shooting. and finally in scenario 3 a full scale invasion. so you'd have 1st initially a joint our strike campaign which would want you know all these missiles it would

just be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use $45.00 maybe 10 but wanted to make sure that every defensive position in taiwan had been attacked every airfield been cratered every naval port stable and we hear warnings to d.c. dangers could come much sooner than we might think. and if you look at the internal situation in china at this moment the economy says being affected by. the chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan us accompanying a scapegoat and therefore taiwan needs to be. about the chinese possible use of force against us that's all that part 2 of taiwan china that's next target. for.

3 more. leg shot is defeated again thanks to their little gorman's lights and enters the international break at the top of the table to go. to 90 minutes long d w. n n gemini with w. at any time cuddling and he plays the news media in the bellows yeah i don't like the beatles catalog so missing along to you tube is the combo from super live. to. interactive exercises. everything is online

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