metry series displaced depicts traumatic humanitarian crises around the world. forgetting when i didn't go to university to kill people i thought if i acted that way i mean. people feel for their lives and their future so they seek refuge abroad but what will become of course to stay behind. placed stance on t'other 68 on d w. we're. preparing for war in taiwan. the taiwanese military forces training for a scenario that they hope will never happen a chinese invasion from across the sea. taiwan's president herself a time when it comes to rally the troops. one

has good reason to worry facing its giant neighbor across a narrow strait of water. this year chinese warplanes have flown close to taiwan over and over again probing prodding until taiwanese fighters intercept. and out at sea chinese warships back to a sense of constant threat. taiwan has lived with that threat for more than 70 years but now it's rising to a new level and the world needs to pay attention. to under president xi jinping china has been flexing its muscles more and more openly not just on occasions like it 70th anniversary parade this year in one of the most remote places in the world china's mountainous border zone with india out of the

blue a sudden escalation in tensions between chinese and indian troops left dozens of people dead china's defense ministry published videos of its forces training in tibet the message seeming to be we're ready for anything. relations with the united states have soured to the brink of imbue cold war with donald trump and she jinping at loggerheads over a huge range of issues within its own borders to the northwest china has ignored international condemnation of reeducation camps part of a sweeping crackdown on its weaker minority. and in hong kong since a wave of protests began last year china moved more and more aggressively to assert direct control of this former british colony. and this summer the arrests are on a regime critics began after

a new national security or stripped away many of hong kong's freedom. of the people. of this crackdown in hong kong is what's most chilling of all for taiwan china. sees the self-governing democratic island office southeastern coast as a province of its own a place that must be brought under its control and here's the thing china says that it reserves the right to take taiwan by force in a speech just last year president xi jinping the brain threat like this woman puts her more function. barlow's how much should be your choice of the shoe shop. no wonder people in taiwan are increasingly worried i think china in the moment of expansion are trying to expand outworked the threat is very real and bill for our taiwan's perpetration is also very serious what is unfolding

tongue on right now i think gave us a hard lesson that we really need to do better to safeguard our democracy 20202030 is the most dangerous time in my opinion for a conflict china over these disputed territory and as we'll see it's far from certain that taiwan would get any help if china did mansion attack so in this video we're going to ask what could actually happen we're going to examine 3 possible scenarios guided by experts who've been studying the risks for years ranging from china chipping away at taiwan's defenses to a marquee annexation of an outlying island crimea style and in the final and most dangerous scenario an all out invasion something that could not only be a disaster for taiwan but bring china and the us to the brink of

a war that would change the world everything that happens in medicine already happened under the shadow of a potential nuclear war because that's what this could be some of what we're going to see and hear. is genuinely frightening but if this year has taught us anything it's that night mess in our egos can happen and it's better to be prepared and european think of planning. and think through what their actions could look like before we get into those scenarios we're going to deal with 2 important questions why does china want to take over taiwan and 1st of all what is taiwan it sounds like a really basic question but this is no ordinary place there's nowhere like it anywhere in the world. this story takes us back to 949 when the island was known as for. not out of the

china sea years barbosa plunged all mob asiatic pirates and head up to the heart not in those leadership by learning about the size of massachusetts and connecticut combine it was the aftermath of the 2nd world war and mao zedong's communists had one victory in china's civil war a conflict that had dragged on for more than 2 decades the defeated nationalists led by chiang kai shek found refuge on taiwan where they planned to regroup and mount a fight back from sharm option to launch the attack that will drive out the garbage chiang side was supported by the united states but that dream of conquering china turned out to be a fantasy in stage with the cold war came a kind of stalemate. all along both chiang and wow insisted that there was only one china and that they were the right for ruler of it. chiang was a fervent anti communist but he was no democrat he will taiwan as

a military dictatorship right up until his death in 1985. it was only under this man wait for taiwan began. moving towards democracy. rightly turn play is being described by the international community and with a view a lot here in taiwan the father of time with modern day democracy and why is that he is the key person who really kicked off a step by step democratize ation from the early ninety's up until the night in 96 when he held the 1st democratic presidential election in taiwan history and of course he won that election by a very comfortable margin and he just went on to further consolidate all the democratic institutions here in taiwan police reforms were a historic turning point for taiwan. ever since taiwan has made huge economic

strides and flourished into an open raucous democratic society with almost 24000000 people. and how to deal with china has been one of the major battlegrounds of taiwanese democratic policies from 2008 to 2016 former president. trying to improve relations with china. economic ties grew stronger. but eventually there was a back. student protest called the sunflower movement sprang up in 2013 accusing maher of going too far with the major chinese trade agreements. people feared it would make taiwan to depend on the g. . 19 the election 2 years later signed when the opposition d.p.p. party swept to office. she became taiwan's 1st female leader on a platform that was far more critical of china and confidently asserting taiwan's

distinct identity oh i think that was. so that was. so. joseph says foreign minister in sign went to government he spoke to t w in taipei you understand that i want to run by china we elect our own government our presidents democratic democratically elected our parliament is also democratically elected we have ministry of all foreign affairs that engages with the international community so taiwan is not run by china taiwan is not part of the p.r.c. and that is the fact that doesn't go down at all well in beijing we spoke to expert wang who young who runs a think tank is close to the government they are really thinking more.

separation from china you know there's a lot of. things that the current situation is doing that really not good for the course trade relations. but public opinion in taiwan seems to be moving in size to rection. people are identifying not according to chinese roots but is taiwanese in may 2020 at the pure research center did a survey amount how many people and the number the percentage of people identifying themselves as taiwanese just again growth to be here for a high while the number of people identifying themselves as chinese continued through. decline and i think that just reflects the growing generational difference between the younger generation which importance of maintaining their identity bertha's the older generation which still feels like a big part of their life has a very deep connection to china meanwhile taiwan successes have continued to act up

just one example it's high tech economy is home to t.s.m. see the world's most advanced silicon chip maker driving a huge proportion of the world's smartphones in the coronavirus pandemic taiwan's affective response has become the envy of the world. and his society has opened up in striking ways even becoming the 1st place in asia to legalize same sex marriage and 29. you would think that for other liberal democracies like here in the west taiwan would be a natural friend and ally well i think if. only 15 countries in the world recognise taiwan as a sovereign state most of them are tiny but the rest long ago switch recognition to china. even in europe home of proud democracies britain switch recognition to china way back in 1915 france did the same in 1964 and germany followed suit

in 1972 in fact the only country in europe that has full diplomatic relations with taiwan. the vatican population $825.00 because if we think about taiwan as a place and what kind of place it is than it is a vibrant democracy it is a tech superpower. junko it was just a china expert on the phone saying it doesn't it is a country that is just playing a role in the global system or could play a role in the global system that would be quite substantial and very close to where europe asked in a lot of the conversations and so it is quite surprising in a way that our relations are not as close as they could be. with any attempt by european countries to strengthen ties with taipei to meet with powerful pushback from china. during a recent visit to taiwan by

a group of lawmakers from the czech republic china's foreign minister threatened that the delegations leader would pay a heavy price. for . the truth. likewise china's influence means taiwan is frozen out of key international bodies including the united nations the same goes for the world health organization which has been especially frustrating for taiwan during the coronavirus pandemic the chinese government was able to bungle lies. in the international organization to block that was participation no matter how many like my countries there are in helping taiwan we think that the. cot or the school of tell our people from participating in this international waters ations

it's not fair to that i want to speak taiwan's diplomatic isolation deepen profoundly in 1979 u.s. president jimmy carter welcomed dung sharping to the white house and switched diplomatic recognition from taipei to beijing. the u.s. didn't abandon taiwan completely it softened the blow some reassurances on defense but crucially those reassurances are far from watertight one is that the united states would provide defensive weapons and services to taiwan as necessary and did not define what defenses and brawny clayson is an expert on taiwan and china at the c s i s think tank in washington. and then the 2nd obligation is to maintain the united states at south are and their military capability in the west pacific. to prevent intimidation and coercion against taiwan now

notably that is not a commitment to come to taiwan's defense in the event that it is attacked it means that the united states is a sort of hard life for taiwan. its old large amounts of weapons to taipei over the decades something that stepped up under the trumpet ministration we see is. more serious than ever in their commitment to peace in this region the united states is speaking a regular. taiwan whenever we have. to request the united states to make. their review it right away. make it available to taiwan after that review period so it's being a quite regular. very much. but in the meantime china has become dramatically more powerful as proudly displayed on the streets of beijing making it pose

a far greater threat to taiwan the taiwanese military is completely too often comparison and adding to the challenge it doesn't even have enough for. the armed forces have been producing videos like this to try to drum up infusions among potential young soldiers but they've been struggling to make up for a shortfall left by phasing out of conscription. so that's where taiwan stands right now in 2020 a striking success story in many ways and yet incredibly vulnerable to china. so now to our next question why does china want to take over taiwan. it's 2015 and blurry footage from china's state media starts to circulate around the world. it shows a military exercise at

a remote desert base but there's one thing that seizes attention. that building in the background in various shots looked very familiar to people in taiwan. is appeared to be modeled on the presidential office in taipei a. symbol of taiwan self-government. satellite imagery later seem to confirm the similarity. one made official protest but china brush them off saying the trial was just a routine exercise and yet there's nothing hidden or new about china's desire to take control of taiwan based goes back all the way to the unfinished business of the chinese civil war. as we saw earlier both mao and chiang kai shek said there was only one china and they were the rightful leader of it and even today one china

remains as sacrosanct principle for beijing has a bill this year the same language sure the same culture the shirts the background and there's nobody to be even a system as seen from beijing with hong kong having returned to china in 1997 taiwan will be the last piece in the puzzle for china's restoration as a unified great nation overcoming a legacy of historical scots. and one in the trial actually in the past. 10200 years john as supper foreign powers. are humiliated by many western powers. so also i think that it's important that china maintain. a unified country and particularly when china now is already become. a more prosperous more economically developed and so that you know people can really enjoying the. benefits of becoming

a greater china. you know if i was. made but there's most of this the nationalism and identity taiwan's position in the so-called 1st i.b.m. chain scutching china southeast makes it highly important from a strategic point of view. controlling it could fatally undermine that america's current power in the region and of taiwan paul. if one were to be occupied by the chinese military analysts in eastern bloc to book the chinese invasion threat looking through 3 strategic questions then it becomes almost impossible to defend our entire network or pretty our image of that how do we. blockade at that point or how do we defend south korea how do we get from the philippines because at any time they could be invaded from taiwan if they tried it

there and conversely controlling taiwan would be crucial for china assuring up its own position china would be quite fearful if another country had forces on taiwan because then it would have i in a sense a base place where. force could be projected against china and that is the biggest fear that china has. now if the chinese were able to occupy taiwan in that way aid them in projecting force and preventing interference by foreign forces and particularly the united states in 2005 china make this and matter of national. the national people's congress agreed on an anti secessions all the declared reunifying the motherland as the sacred duty of chinese people taiwanese compactly it's included it was passed by

$2896.00 votes to 0 john is going to pass a law to take this risk seriously and 'd there's a strong we were 1.31.4000000000 people. behind this the national people's congress or about. you know you know they were not tolerate any of the session the law held out the prospect of a hong kong style approach of one country 2 systems china you know one cons why country 2 system china would lead. taiwan to do whatever its economic side and and also a free enterprise is capitalist whatever that matter would not be really impressed by china so as long as the sovereignty is within one china policy this system taiwan can keep its existing system without changing the recent experience with one country 2 systems has left the concept in serious doubt and under xi jinping the

threat of resorting to force against taiwan is quite open as we saw earlier. function. by all those heights egypt beyond source of the shooting. and the latest national people's congress only added to fears that the threat was becoming more explicit so i think you know they're there which i think send a signal that of course china wants to have a peaceful but. you know we're not this ambiguity in china's messaging and in the anti secession lloyd self leaves a lot open to interpretation so it's not completely clear what china's red lines are but the most important. of the circumstances i believe is the one that is completely open ended and that is in the anti secession are basically says if over time taiwan does not agree to unify peaceful right

then force can be used to achieve that goal and that is really the one that is quite worrisome and with every passing year china's military has been getting stronger with massive investments in exactly the sorts of weapons that it would need to invade taiwan and crucially to deter or repel any american attempt to stop it james for now was chief of intelligence for the u.s. pacific fleet until 2015 he recalls how he watched the chinese navy grow since the beginning of his career and the chinese maybe at that time had a few ships from the north sea really nothing else of concern and now 30 years later the trying these navy is larger than u.s. navy in terms of total number of ships. and they certainly are outpacing the maybe the u.s. navy in the western the 7th fleet where i'm sure and for the last 5 years plus

they've been producing literally 5 times as many ships per year as the u.s. navy produces. those ships include 2 aircraft carriers and many of these amphibious warfare ships the sort of vessel that could bring marines to tom watson. just in china has the aging crucial response to the songs designed to destroy precisely the kinds of ships that the u.s. might use to defend taiwan they've invested a lot of time and energy to become the world's leading leaders cruise missile technology they have these internship cruise missiles like the white tree which has a 300 kilometer mile range that's longer than anything that united states. right now and it's also supersonic and it has these high to bring capabilities that can do the defensive systems close in weapons systems and they've built them you know

by the truckload and substantially so take all this together and china's dramatic military build up hasn't just totally outgunned taiwan it's even made it a serious rival to the united states in the pacific even 5 years ago the ability of the united states to come to taiwan's defense was greater than it is today. and with the balance of power shifts china's favor the prospect looms larger that it will decide to watch james final says there's even a kind of historical deadline on the horizon the 100th anniversary of communist china in 2049 i believe that whoever is the leader of the people's republic of china on 1 october 20. second to stand up and turn of the propensity to give a speech to the people who are trying to a 1000000000 plus people and that person is going to have to say we have achieved a great rejuvenation of china and we are now completely restored and all in the

race the shame of the century of humiliation fell argues than any invasion would have to take place within the next decade for the dust to settle in time for that momentous date my theory is if you could take 20 years is the time that the world would forget anything then you back that up from 2049 you're basically at 2030 and so i've characterized what we're in right now it's just begun it's the decade of concern 20202030 is the most dangerous time and there are in my opinion for a conflict with china over these disputed territory china's leadership has the motivation and increasingly has the means to make a military move against taiwan so what might china actually do. coming up in part 2 weeks i mean 3 scenarios 1st chipping away at taiwan's result by military and hybrid means. they're constantly getting taiwan with. this

information misinformation. and of course at. the hope i think in beijing. i want to. eventual just. in scenario 2 russia's crimea playbook inspires a shadowy takeover of outlying islands. while rushing to green then people. and so it creates a very serious dilemma for the marine and army troops that i'm seeing them that they care isn't there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point did they start shooting. and finally in scenario 3 a full scale invasion. she would have 1st initially a joint our strike campaign which would launch in all these missiles it would just

be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use or fly maybe tend to want to make sure that every defensive position in taiwan had been attacked every airfield been cratered every naval port stable and we hear warnings that deep dangers could come much sooner than we might think. and if you look at the internal situation in china at this moment the economy says being affected by cold at 19 the chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan us accompanying a scapegoat and therefore taiwanese too keen. about the chinese possible use of force against us that's only part 2 of taiwan china that's next.

but. mr offended. was the problem of exploitation to go has since become a symbol of sustainability and success thanks to a project at the edge of the himalayas. 30 minutes d.w. . this

is deja vu news live from berlin and alleged russian hitman goes on trial in the german capital the man is charged with gunning down a former chechen commander in a berlin park last year german russian ties are already tests this trials outcome could make them even worse also coming up u.s. president trump stops talks on.