his credo no chemical. industry. was step. straight. a students. don't stick to. training successful. judge. starts october 1st e w. last time on taiwan china's next target taiwan's military forces training for a scenario they hope will never have a chinese invasion from across the sea. and. china sees the self-governing democratic island off its southeastern coast as

a province of its own place that must be brought under its control and here's the thing china says that it reserves the right to take taiwan by force under president xi jinping china has become more open than ever about that threat and as we'll see it's far from certain that taiwan would get any help it china. even 5 years ago. the united states to come to taiwan's defense was greater than it is today so what my china actually do let's turn now are 2 or 3 scenarios each one more dangerous than the last we're going to start by projecting what's happening right now into the future with china trying to chip away at taiwan's defenses and we're going to ask how far could it go.

every 2020. affluence releases this image to the media he chose a time going east jet fighter intercepting a chinese boma flying near its aspace rank limits of the dangerous tension in the skies the photograph might be read but what it shows happens a lot especially this year taiwanese military expert joining the chang explains a common flight path that chinese planes follow made and. crying out. the. one writing down their return back to china in all. they will need to read then the. whole. so we are spending our skies defending all our waters every more but in the last

few decades it's constant pressuring from the chinese side it's like a stress test on multiple levels it's hardly going to demoralizing the taiwanese public but it's also simply wearing down time once planes. had to scramble. that not only. has a limited number of hours. and still having. trouble. with their wings but we voted with. her. that we can do the windows well. and it also takes 'd away all their activities that would prove they're ready. and perhaps most importantly all of these probing generates hugely value. bill insights for the chinese military james fanelli who led u.s.

naval intelligence in the pacific explains you have to know your adversaries defense a structure and its network its air defense radar systems were the weaknesses were the strengths how long does it take a fighter f. 16 fighter to i want to get off the ground to respond to a dream. or a weapon coming from that base or you know. or the kaiju 5000 or 2000 coming from bruce springsteen fairly warm and so they're testing all of the nuance things that we can't see we don't know about because we're not getting the raw intelligence but i guarantee you china is looking at everything possible down to minute detail of minutes seconds how long things take to respond who doesn't respond which base comes from 1st telephone calls text messages between different government leaders and defense officials there mapping all of that out in the cyber

realm to china continues to chip away at you on the chunk explains just by reading the i want to have. that pen all the agent has been hacked i need chinese hackers that. at a hack be. happening very and i want this unassuming building in shanghai reportedly houses the military hacking 61398 the taiwan suspects of launching many attacks all this belongs to what's called the grazer hostile activities that stop short of outright military action in their cost that we can in taiwan with cyber attacks with this information misinformation and. and of course as you know if they're constantly working. through propaganda channels and other channels to weaken to demoralize the taiwanese military and isolate.

these government. and with its open society taiwan is highly vulnerable to disinform ation campaigns so says expert channing sue these efforts i think they are more and more sophisticated the enemy to interfere with one's internal social and political lives as in the ultimate purpose most of the time is to create confusion in a society to create distrust in the government to create division among peoples and when there is confusion when there is distrust in democracy then there is an opportunity for the idea of authoritarianism being a step dad and i think that's the purpose of this information it adds up to a multifaceted information war and china has long pursued a united front policy and tactics against taiwan and so try to build support

with in taiwan for unification and that includes our buying media in taiwan and buying off some people in taiwan or maybe even trying to buy votes and inserting people in taiwan and trying to shape the narrative so could this scenario of chipping away it's happening right now eventually succeed the hope. will eventually just crumble but the society can crumble and that ultimately over the next 5 to 10 years we can subvert one's government to. crumble what democracy from within. but if taiwan doesn't crumble it could push back becoming more determined to stand alone and that could ultimately trigger

a crisis perhaps one like our next an aria. and caused your mind back to early 2014 you might remember scenes like this. seemingly out of nowhere have troops began showing up at key installations in the ukrainian peninsula of crimea. adding to the sense of confusion the troops know insignia they wouldn't say who they were or who had sent them people started calling them little green men but it soon became clear what was going on with the little green men belong to russia and their mission was. nothing less than crimea in hindsight russia's motivations for taking control of the crimean peninsula seem quite obvious it house to strategically important russian

naval base which moscow leased from ukraine. after weeks of unrest in the capital kiev that culminated in the fall of the central ukrainian government russia made its move leaders here in the west were a gas that what putin had done but they were helpless they impose sanctions but 6 years later nothing has changed so could this is a blueprint for a similar chinese move against part of taiwan let's take a look at the map and taiwan has a large number of outlying islands that could be vulnerable to being plucked away like crimea from the tiny reefs of u 2 album process down in the south china sea through the pingu islands just off the time when east coast right up to maps and well to the north. we're going to focus in here on the jin man islands they are just 2 kilometers from the chinese mainland port of shopmen you could swim it. these islands have history back in

1950 s. they were the focus of 2 major post world crises between taiwan and china neither side has forgotten but despite that history today jim arm has close ties to chalmette just across the harbor and now pipes in much of its drinking water from the mainland and beyond that it has important intelligence and strategic value according to experts in east and human control. the largest port facility by far. in southeastern. fortress it is honeycomb. there are tanks there. are heavy artillery mortar systems and of course the major. focal point for intelligence collection so how might a crimea style scenario play out. well a possible trigger it could be political

a taiwanese statement for example china might interpret it as breaking its ante session in eastern explains how things might begin well the most likely course of action i think for the would be condemned to conduct a massive sabotage operation against him and so everything from cyber attacks electronic jamming to having commandos and intelligence agents and assets on the ground and start potentially assassinating military commanders blowing things up knocking the power of. china's maritime militia could be brought into play here if you could compare them to russia's little green men being involved in international confrontations of the fishing rights in the south china sea something that taiwan has been watching closely russian news in the green and then people call in. the because they. it is

a very likely that china mobilized those murray time or the mission to iraq those missions goes around the surrounding countries and certainly you're going to see jim and that surrounded by and flooded with maritime militias these are sensibly members of the p l a but they look like civilian fisherman oftentimes and so it creates a very serious dilemma. for the marines and the army troops that are the garrison there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point are they for truth is it when they're closing in when they've already landed and now they're swarming the island and taking over facilities and of course they would be mixed in with undercover special forces. from the p.l.o. as well the aim would likely be to move to establish facts on the ground quickly like cretin did in crimea and it would pose

a huge dilemma for the government backing the pay taipei is not necessarily going to know how to react and there's not necessarily going to be a consensus in taipei on the value of g.m. and the value of escalating to a potentially an all out war with the p.r.c. over gene there are going to be some in taiwan that would say well gee been historically was part of fujian province. it's not actually part of a high wall and it's not worth. over in washington it would also present a tie lemme but it seems likely there would be little american appetite to intervene militarily it's very difficult to judge how the united states would react to or limited use of force against taiwan it would likely come with very little warning and it might be over very quickly and there might be an effort to court sanctions on china but i doubt that there would be

a use of force by the united states to punish china for one it has done so could this be a relatively painless scenario for china one with diplomatic costs that it could accept like gladney a putin's experience with crimea well it's not necessarily so clearly cut. it would most likely trigger anti china protests in taiwan much more intense than some flower movement that we heard about earlier rallying public opinion against closer ties with china. and even if the u.s. decided not to intervene in the takeover could prompt washington to increase its commitment to defending taiwan. for china even this relatively limited pushback might not be worth it but i think it's the risk there is that upsets the overall strategic. you know the great rejuvenation of the great restoration in years once china pulls the way in europe and says we're going to war they're going to go after

taiwan it's are going to go with the military they're going to go all the way and they're not going to go so now let's turn to our final and most dangerous scenario china going all the way and invading taiwan. for. it's a decade or so in the future but beneath the surface in the chinese communist party there are growing signs of dissent. china's economy has been underperforming for years held back by a shop's role in global trade but lingered after the coronavirus pandemic. tensions with the u.s. have turned into a chronic cold war. beijing has kept pouring money into its military or debt is soaring and china's population is beginning to shrink but the party chairman is under growing pressure to break out of this sense of national decline or face being

forced out of office by party rivals. this makes taiwan look like an increasingly tempting target its economy is strong but its military disadvantage is deeper than ever and its people are appalled by what happened to hong kong even less likely to join china voluntarily. the law in the united states breakouts around to wait in key swing states author of bitter election ended with razor time results both sides are claiming victory and accusing the other of having help for. as the legal challenges fly back and forth the u.s. faces months of political uncertainty. so a power vacuum in the united states a push for national pride in a stagnating china and taiwan as exposed as it's ever been these are the sorts of

circumstances that could encourage china to make a move so if it came to that how might an invasion play out she would have burst initially a joint strike campaign which would want you know all these missiles it would just be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use for 5 maybe tend to want to make sure that every defensive position of taiwan had been attacked every airfield had been greater every naval port stable and then they would then come in and help with their airports order to establish air superiority so that any taiwan aircraft tried to get off the ground it would be decimated and wall back is going on inside looking at the the previous forces would be coming across and those heroes who come up 1st and launch and land forces into key points the big one that the clear. and then you come in there with the much larger crowd that would be you know within their civilian fleet it would have literally scores and scores 1000 and

thousands of the only soldiers and guard that could just walk right up here now of course taiwan would be true. trying to defend itself chang explains how it would have to be smart in how it uses its much smaller military. all of the assets including the land forces the pan the ships the close. up over the aircraft has to be used effectively that could be divided into basically the 1st space is to is to protect the force itself you can use all this deception temple's brought film and those kinds of a tactical magic well need to be unhappy but that we will happen we will still keep our capability. to respond then the 2nd place and. the 5 hour wave off the coast of taiwan so that that means

the side of the country and the people will be away. or the cash or the m.p.'s minimum then the 3rd debate to. annihilate or destroy a lot of the forces at the peak that means attack helicopters and land based. missile. to attack the chinese navy ship but ultimately the best that taiwan could do is buy time hoping that the united states would intervene james for mel talks about the assets that the americans could mobilize in the pacific or u.s. navy in the u.s. 7th fleet resources that could disrupt the invasion so. our submarine forces. they would be used to try to disrupt the attorneys in beijing the ships that would come across. in the u.s.

air forces that are operated from japanese bases in her craft there is a sport of course that is region. would be. destroyed basically so the us would have options but intervention would still be a member mental decision american forces would immediately become chinese targets with its pacific bases like a canal in japan and the tiny island of guam open to attack and so even if the united states manage to defend taiwan its intervention could set off a terrifying chain of escalation between 2 superpowers that may just be the 1st battle in what becomes a series of battles that. go on over a number of years in a protracted great war. and of course all of that is the nuclear deterrent hold that neither. washington or miscalculate

and panicked and her does anything with nuclear weapons if they do then we're talking about potential nuclear war. and that would be truly horrific and so there's also you know everything that happened in this in already happened under the shadow of a potential nuclear war because that's what this could lead to it remains dangerous and extremely serious and we've been talking about all this happening perhaps a decade in the future but some of the circumstances that could trigger this scenario could emerge much sooner than that and if you look at the internal situation in china at this moment their economy says being affected by climate 19 and under this kind of. the chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan us

a convenient scapegoat and therefore taiwan needs to be concerned about the chinese possible use of force against us so the world. might not have 10 years to think about these risks so what can it do to minimize them. as we've just seen a conflict over taiwan has the potential to spark a war between superpowers even the most benign scenario we've just examined is fraught with risk so what should the world be doing about this well let's start with the united states some of the experts that we've been hearing from in the us say washington has to make a much clearer commitment to taiwan's defense our policy towards taiwan. doesn't make a lot of. that we don't work there so what. is right for miscalculation by providing credible guarantees.

to taiwan security and messaging to beijing. the united states in the serious about i want security. that that increases risk we would never do this with south korea which a bad teacher can be used and doesn't work we know it's destabilizing. and yet we're doing that with taiwan. a new bill in congress changed to make big changes committing future presidents to defending taiwan in the event of an attack it's also congressman ted yoho republican on the house foreign affairs committee explained the other time want to beijing prevention act does several things one it delineates if there were an attack on taiwan by china that it would authorize an a u m l of the united states congress to allow the president to go in and defend

taiwan militarily in a u.n.'s that's an authorization for. use of military force and i think the biggest thing it does is it gets rid of the strategic or political or diplomatic ambiguity that's lasted since the seventy's it's been a just. a lot of ambiguity or taiwan stance but critics say this could backfire either by provoking china or by encouraging risky behavior by taiwan's leaders so if the united states has a position that says it will come to taiwan's defense if attacked are trying under all circumstances then that could the argument goes into blank check to late and taiwan president to engage in more dangerous in the stabilizing behaviors so u.s. policy currently is to oppose any changes in the status quo in the taiwan strait

made by either side that our american experts do agree on one think the us needs at least to be able to defend taiwan and right now that is not certain but i think the united states has been in bed complacent in recent years and my hope is that the u.s. will follow through on some of the plans that it currently has to modernize and update u.s. forces with an eye to being able to intervene on taiwan's behalf china's message to the u.s. is pretty simple though back off i think you have. a country. they don't know. china's affairs probably should maybe you know. this i mean china saw the problem itself so what about attitudes here in europe

as the czech republic has found out when europeans express solidarity with taiwan. china responds with threats but that may make europeans more determined to take a stand at least that was hinted at by germany's foreign minister at a meeting with his chinese counterpart. there also. were you and i. only wish to. be a little more. active here. but experts say europe still hasn't figured out how to back up that commitment what we lack of a europe in conversation about what kind of player europe in the future would like to be in these kinds of scenarios and whether we would like to stay at the sidelines of the or whether the mission the important for europe to not only defend

the economic interest but also with interest because safeguarding vital democracies in a region that is of crucial importance for the future of our economic prosperity and finally let's turn to taiwan itself from minister joseph says there's one thing he'd like democracies to do now to support taiwan back its bid to become more integrated in the international community. that how when his people should not be scored it from the international organizations it's not fair to that how many people and it's also stopping taiwan from making contributions to the international community so i would ask the international community i would ask the members of the international organizations to look at taiwan's role as a positive one and 2 in cool taiwan even that would provoke a furious pushback from beijing and democracies know it but joseph insists that the whole world has

a stake in taiwan's future if you look at china us expansionism in the last several years. i think it's not only about china's expansion they are trying to export the old boy tarion international order while the democracy you saw following the rule based international order and of china succeeded in taking taiwan over i think the rest of the walt especially for democracies is going to feel the heat china is expanding award taiwan happens to be on the front line. for those of us watching from the outside we owe it to the people of the region to sit up and pay attention. to a flash point that could blow up into a devastated conference.

where i come from we have to fight for a free for. yes i was born and raised to me telling the painter she protests one to the shadow and if you newspapers when official information as a journalist i have work all the strength up many can trust and they have problems are almost the same 14 social inequality a lack of the freedom of the press and. who can afford to stay silent when it comes to the fans something humans unseen or microphones who have decided to put their trust in us. my name is jenny harrison and part of.

this is g. w. news while i was from berlin in the u.s. senate contentious hearings to confirm the woman president wants on the supreme court republicans are rushing to get to me cola approved the head of november's presidential elections are gone from ancient would see old records shift to the wall also coming up the confusion surrounding colonna here in.