students are. training successful. starts october 1st w. . last time on taiwan china's next target taiwan's military forces training for a scenario they hope will never have a chinese invasion from across the sea. china sees the self-governing democratic island off its southeastern coast as a province of its own a place that must be brought under its control and here's the thing china says that

it reserves the right to take taiwan by force under president xi jinping china has become more open than ever about the type of threat i guess we'll see it's far from certain put taiwan would get any help if china or. even 5 years ago. the united states to come to taiwan's defense was greater than it is today so what my china actually do let's turn now to all 3 scenarios each one more dangerous than the last we're going to start by projecting what's happening right now into the future with china trying to chip away at taiwan's defenses and we're going to ask how far could it go. february 2020 taiwan's air force releases this image to the media it shows a taiwanese jet fighter. intercepting the chinese boma flying air it's an space

rankling it's just a dangerous tension in the sky the photograph might be red but what it shows happens a lot especially this year taiwanese military expert johnny chung explains a common flight path that chinese planes follow made and and so common brian out. because they go to the. side of taiwan and fly in down bed return back to china taking the route of boston can say we will need to respond by saying the aircraft fight to hold the x. the. block to make sure so we have been doing our skies defending our waters every mormon in the last few decades is constant pressuring from the chinese side his stress test on multiple levels it's hardly

a demoralizing the taiwanese public but it's also simply wearing down time was plain. i want has to scramble fighter jets that not only get the airframe because every fighter jet. made a has a limited number of hours a can fly. and so by having them constantly on strip alert. with their wings fully loaded with heavy munitions and with external fuel tanks that weakens the wings as well. and it also takes the 'd pilots away from other activities that would prove their readiness. and perhaps most importantly all of these probing generate hugely valuable insights for the chinese military james final who led u.s. naval intelligence in the pacific explains you have to know your adversaries defense. structure and its network its air defense radar system where the

weaknesses were the strengths how long does it take a fighter 16 fighter i want to get off the ground there was 12 or 37 coming from this air base to the jail of and coming from that base or you know. the cage a 5000 or 2000 coming from this base of the early warning aircraft so they're testing all of these little nuances things that we can't see we don't know about this we're not getting the raw intelligence but i guarantee you china is looking at every possible down to minute detail of minutes seconds how long things take to respond who doesn't respond which base comes 1st the telephone calls text messages between different government leaders and defense officials there mapping all of that out in the cyber realm to china continues to probably chip away. chunks explained just by read that the high one had. that pen the

government agency had been hacked by the chinese hackers that. had. happened very recently in taiwan unassuming building in shanghai reportedly houses the military hacking unit 61398 the taiwan suspects of launching many attacks all this belongs to what's called the gray zone. activities that stop short of outright military action they're constantly getting taiwan with cyber attacks with to some formation misinformation attacks. and of course espionage if they're constantly working. through propaganda channels and other channels to weaken to demoralize the taiwanese military and isolate. these government. and with its open society taiwan is highly vulnerable to disinform ation campaigns so says expert channing su these efforts i think they are

more actually more sophisticated or anything to interfere with taiwan's internal social and political lives as in the ultimate purpose most of the time is to create confusion in a society to create distrust in the government to create division among peoples and when there is confusion when there is distrust in democracy then there is an opportunity for the idea of authoritarianism being a step dad and i think that's the purpose of this information it adds up to a multifaceted information war and china has long pursued a united front policy and tactics against taiwan and so try to build support with in taiwan for unification and that includes buying media in

taiwan and buying off some people in taiwan or maybe even trying to buy votes and inserting people in taiwan and trying to shape the narrative so could this scenario of chipping away it's happening right now eventually succeed. will eventually just crumble but the society can crumble and that ultimately over the next 5 to 10 years we can subvert one's government ready to. crumble democracy from within. but it taiwan doesn't crumble it could push back becoming more determined to stand alone and that could ultimately trigger a crisis perhaps one like our next an aria.

caused your mind back to early 2014 you might remember scenes like this. seemingly out of nowhere heavily armed troops began showing up at key installations in the ukrainian peninsula of crimea. adding to the sense of confusion the troops bore no insignia they wouldn't say who they were or who had sent them people started calling them little green men but it soon became clear what was going on the little green men belong to russia and their mission was stunningly. nothing less than an exciting crimea in hindsight russia's motivations for taking control of the crimean peninsula seem quite obvious it house to strategically important russian naval base which moscow leased from ukraine. after weeks of unrest in the capital kiev that culminated in the fall of the central ukrainian

government russia made its move leaders here in the west were a gas that what putin had done but they were helpless they impose sanctions but 6 years later nothing has changed so could this serve as a blueprint for a similar chinese move against part of taiwan let's take a look at the map and taiwan has a large number of outlying islands that could be vulnerable to being plucked away like crimea from the tiny reefs of. stone in the south china sea through the pingu islands just off the taiwanese coast right up to map to well to the north. but we're going to focus in here on the jin man islands there just 2 kilometers from the chinese mainland port of shopmen you could swim it. these islands have history back in 1950 s. they were the focus of 2 major post-school crises between taiwan and china neither

side has forgotten but despite that history today jim martin has close ties to charmaine just across the harbor is now pipes in much of its drinking water from the mainland and beyond that it has important intelligence and strategic value according to experts in east and human control. the largest port facility by far. in southeastern. fortress it is honeycomb. there are tanks there. are heavy artillery mortar systems and of course the major. focal point for intelligence collection so how my to crimea style scenario play as. well a possible trigger it could be political a time when the statement free zone china might interpret as breaking it and he says. in eastern explains how things might begin well the most likely

course of action i think for that would be condemned to conduct a massive sabotage operation against him and so everything from cyber attacks to electronic jamming to having commandos and intelligence agents and assets on the ground and start potentially assassinating military commanders blowing things up knocking the power of. china's maritime militia could be brought into play here if you could compare them to russia's little green men being involved in international confrontations over fishing rights in the south china sea something that taiwan has been watching closely russian use little green people calling. in. because they well it is a very likely that china mobilized those murray time looking. to iraq. they should go around the country and certainly you're going to see jim and

that surrounded by and flooded with maritime militia so these are sensibly members of the p l a but they look like civilly fisherman oftentimes and so it creates a very serious dilemma. for the marines and the army troops that are on cimon but they garrison there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point are they for truth is it when they're closing in when they've already landed and now they're swarming the island and taking over facilities and of course they would be mixed in with undercover special forces. from the p.l.o. as well the aim would likely be to move to establish facts on the ground quickly like pretended to crimea and it would pose a huge dilemma for the government back in taipei taipei is not necessarily going to know how to react and there's not necessarily going to be a consensus in taipei on the value of g.m.

and the value of escalating to a potentially an all out war with the p.r.c. over gene there are going to be some in taiwan that would say well gee been historically was part of fujian province. it's not actually part of a high wall and it's not worth. over in washington it would also present a tie lemma but it seems likely there would be little american appetite to intervene militarily it's very difficult to judge how the united states would react to or limited use of force against taiwan it would likely come with very little warning and it might be over very quickly there might be an effort to put sanctions on china but i doubt that there would be a use of force by the united states to punish china for one it has done so could this be a relatively painless scenario for china one with diplomatic costs that it could

accept like putin's experience with crimea well it's not necessarily so clear cut. it would most likely trigger anti china protests in taiwan much more intense than some flour movement that we heard about earlier rallying public opinion against closer ties with china. and even if the u.s. decided not to intervene in the takeover could prompt washington to increase its commitment to defending time one. for china even this relatively limited pushback might not be worth it but i think it's the risk there is that upsets the overall strategic. you know the great rejuvenation of the great restoration my opinion is once china pulls the way says we're going after taiwan they're going to go after taiwan if they're going to go with the military they're going to go all the way and they're not going to go so now let's turn to our final and most dangerous scenario

china going all the way and invading taiwan. it's a decade or so in the future but beneath the surface in the chinese communist party there are growing signs of dissent. china's economy has been underperforming for years held back by a sharp fall in global trade that lingered after the coronavirus time to make. tensions with the u.s. have turned into a chronic cold war. beijing has kept pouring money into its military but debt is soaring and china's population is beginning to shrink. the party chairman is under growing pressure to break out of this sense of national decline or face being forced out of office by party rivals. this makes taiwan look like an increasingly

tempting target its economy is strong but its military disadvantage is deeper than ever and its people are appalled by what happened to hong kong because even less likely to join china voluntarily. meanwhile in the united states who breakouts around away in key swing states after a bitter election ended with a razor tight result both sides are claiming victory and accusing the other of having help from the foreign powers who. has the legal challenges fly back and forth the u.s. faces months of political uncertainty. so a power vacuum in the united states a push for national pride in a stagnating china and taiwan as exposed as it's ever been these are the sorts of circumstances that could encourage china to make a move so if it came to that how might an invasion play out do you have 1st

initially a joint strike campaign which would want these missiles it would just be one missile or one installation in taiwan they would use for why i don't want to make sure that every the principles issue. taiwan has been attacked every airfield or been cratered relabel port stable and then they would then come in and help with their air force over the top stablished air superiority so that any time one aircraft tried to get off the ground it would be decimated and wall that's going on inside of the payments the the previous forces would be coming across and those heroes would come off 1st and launch the land forces is the key point that they wanted to clear through the a bradley and then you come in with a much larger craft that would bring you there within their civilian tree that would have literally scores and scores thousands and thousands of the ole soldiers and guard that could just walk right off the pier now of course taiwan would be trying to defend itself you andy chang explains how it would have to be smoked in

how uses its much smaller military. all of this assets including the land forces the tank the ships the boat the sub over the aircraft has to be used but the fact is that that could be divided into 3 basic the 1st space it is used to support catch the force itself you can use all the sac deception chemists brought deal with those kinds of a technical measure will need to be on top of the self that we will have we will still keep our capability. to respond then the 2nd place and. the 5 ways off the coast of taiwan coast so that that means the behind of the country and the people will be on wait for the catch of the minimum then the 3rd phase to.

annihilate or destroy a lot of the reporting at the peak that means the attack had a top and. that they. may dial. back the chinese navy ship but ultimately the best that taiwan could do is buy time hoping that the united states would intervene james final talks about the assets that the americans could mobilize in the pacific or u.s. navy in the u.s. 7th fleet has resources that could disrupt the invasions and so. our submarine forces. they would be used to try to disrupt the chinese invasion ships that would come across that naval and that u.s. air forces that are operating from japanese bases 'd on our aircraft carrier that support the region would be. destroyed and then basically so the u.s.

would have options but intervention would still be a mental decision. american forces would immediately become chinese targets within specific bases like konami in japan and the tiny island of guam open to attack and so even if the united states managed to defend taiwan its intervention could set off a terrifying chain of escalation between the 2 superpowers let me just be the 1st battle in what becomes a series of battles. that go on over a number of years in a protracted great power war. and of course all of that of the tsunami that nuclear deterrence hold that neither government either washington or miscalculate and panicked and blew nor does anything with nuclear weapons if they do then we're talking about

a potential nuclear war. and that would be truly horrific and so there's also you know everything that happened in this scenario happened under the shadow. of a potential nuclear war because that's what this could do to remain dangerous and extremely serious and we've been talking about all this happening perhaps a decade in the future but some of the circumstances that could trigger this scenario could emerge much sooner than that and if you look at the internal situations in china at this moment their economy says being affected by cold that night and go under this kind of so going so says the chinese leaders the authoritarian leaders may find taiwan us a convenient scapegoat and therefore taiwan needs to be concerned about the chinese possible use of force against us so the world might not have 10 years to think about these risks so what can it do to minimize them.

as we've just seen a conflict over taiwan has the potential to spark a war between superpowers even the most benign scenario we've just examined is fraught with risk so what should the world be doing about this well let's start with the united states some of the experts that we've been hearing from in the us say washington has to make a much clearer commitment to taiwan's defense our policy towards taiwan. doesn't make a lot of. that we don't go there so what. is right for miscalculation by providing credible guarantees. to taiwan security and messaging to beijing. the united states in the serious about

i want security. that that increases risk we would never do this with south korea with japan u.g.g. can't be used and doesn't work we know it's destabilizing. and yet. we're doing that with our war. a new bill in congress aims to make big changes committing future presidents to defending taiwan in the event of an attack it's also congressman ted yoho republican on the house foreign affairs committee explained time want to engage in prevention act there are several things one it delineates if there were an attack on taiwan by china that it would authorize in a your mouth of the united states congress to allow the president to go in and defend taiwan militarily and a u.m.s. that's an authorization for use of military force and i think the biggest thing it

does is it gets rid of the strategic or political or diplomatic ambiguity that's lasted since the seventy's it's been a just. a lot of ambiguity or taiwan stance but critics say this could backfire either by provoking china or by encouraging risky behavior by taiwan's leaders so if the united states has a position that says it will come to taiwan's defense if attacked by trying under all circumstances then that could the argument goes give a blank check to any. taiwan president to engage in more dangerous in the stabilizing behaviors so u.s. policy currently is to oppose any changes in the status quo in the taiwan strait made by either side that our american experts do agree on one think the u.s.

needs at least to be able to defend taiwan and right now that is not certain but i think the united states has been better complacent in recent years and my hope is that the u.s. will follow through. wants some of the plans that it currently has to modernize and update us forces with an eye being able to intervene on taiwan's behalf china's message to the us is pretty simple that back off i think you have. a country. as they did a. chinese affairs a publisher maybe you know people who do this i mean china saw the problem itself so what about attitudes here in europe. as the czech republic has found out when europeans express solidarity with taiwan china responds with threats but that may make europeans more determined to take

a stand at least that was hinted at by germany's foreign minister at a meeting with his chinese counterpart. it's. also. they're also expensive though were you when i. swear i'm a little bit switched to. all the news it's all very small. but experts say europe still hasn't figured out how to back up that commitment. what we lack is the european conversation about what kind of player europe in the future would like to be in these kinds of scenarios and whether we would like to stay at the sidelines of the or whether the mission the important for europe to not only defend the economic interest but also with interest income safeguarding vital democracies in a region that is of crucial importance for the future of our economic prosperity

and finally let's turn to taiwan itself from minister joseph says there's one thing he'd like to mock you cease to do now to support taiwan back its beat to become more integrated in the international community that taiwanese people should not be excluded from the international organizations it's not fair to that one its people and it's also stopping taiwan from making contributions to the international community so i would ask the international community i would ask the members of the international organizations to look at taiwan's role as a positive one and 2 in cool taiwan even that would provoke a furious pushback from beijing and democracies know it but joseph who insists that the whole world has a stake in taiwan's future if you look at china us expansionism in the last several years. i think it's not only about china's expansion they are trying

to export the old boy terry and international order while all the democracies saw following the rule based international order and if china succeeded in taking taiwan over i think the rest of the walt especially for democracies is going to feel the heat china is expanding award taiwan happens to be on the front line. for those of us watching from the outside we owe it to the people of the region to sit up and pay attention. to a flashpoint they could blow up into a devastating conference. with. a country at

peace and yet on the front line. germany during the cold war. on for decades this is what east west faced off against. how do ordinary germans experience the conflict. germany and the cold war. 15 minutes on d w. a very i'm david and this is climate change sex. happiness increase books. this is the book for your. children smarter birth free do you know who you.

this is news coming. back on the campaign trail u.s. president hits the battleground state of florida for his 1st rally since being hospitalized with 19 doctors say he's now testing negative. that the product challenger joe biden on the attack in a key state with just 3 weeks to go until the election. china tests an entire city of 1000000 people after detecting a run of virus cluster.