students are. training successful. starts october 1st. w. . the . last time on taiwan china's next target taiwan's military forces training for a scenario they hope will never have a chinese invasion from across the sea. china sees the self-governing democratic island off its southeastern coast as a province of its own place that must be brought under its control and here's the thing china says that it reserves the right to take taiwan by force under president

xi jinping china has become more open than ever about that threat and as we'll see it's far from certain that taiwan will get any help china or. even 5 years ago. the united states to come to taiwan's defense was greater than it is today so what my china actually do let's turn now are 2 or 3 scenarios each one more dangerous than the last we're going to start by projecting what's happening right now into the future with china trying to chip away at taiwan's defenses and we're going to ask how far could it go. february 2020 taiwan's air force releases this image to the media it shows a taiwanese jet fine. intercepting the chinese gomaa flying air it's ash makes

a rankling of the dangerous tension in the sky the photograph might be red but what it shows happens a lot especially this year taiwanese military expert johnny chung explained a common flight path that chinese plates follow made and and so common prying out. because they go to the. site of taiwan and bryan down bed return back to china taking the route of the boston can say we will need to respond by saying the aircraft fight to hold the essex. bottle next door so we have been doing our skies defending our waters it every morning in the last few decades is constant pressuring from the chinese side it's like a stress test on most of the levels it's hardly going to demoralizing the taiwanese

public but it's also simply wearing down time was plain. i want has to scramble fighter jets that not only. get the airframe because every fighter jet. made a has a limited number of hours a can fly. and so by having them constantly on strip alert. with their wings fully loaded with munitions and with external fuel tanks that weakens the wings as well. and they're also takes the pilots away from other activities that would prove they're ready. and perhaps most importantly all of these probing generate hugely valuable insights for the chinese military james finals who led u.s. naval intelligence in the pacific explains you have to know your adversaries defense. structure and its network its air defense radar system where the

weaknesses were the strengths how long does it take a fighter 16 fighter to i want to get off the ground to respond to. this air base to the jail levon coming from that base or. the cage a 5000 or 2000 coming from this base of early warning aircraft so they're testing all of these. things that we can't see we don't know about because we're not getting the raw intelligence but i guarantee you china is looking at every facet of that down to my new detail of minutes seconds how long things take to respond who doesn't respond which base comes 1st telephone calls text messages between different government leaders and defense officials there mapping all of that out in the cyber realm to china continues to prevent chip away. chunks explained just by read that the high one had. that pen the government agency had

been hacked by the chinese hackers that. had. happened very recently in taiwan unassuming building in shanghai reportedly houses the military hacking unit 61398 the time one suspects of launching many attacks all this belongs to what's called the crazy hostile activities that stop short of outright military action they're constantly getting taiwan with cyber attacks with disapprobation misinformation. and of course espionage if they're constantly working. through propaganda channels and other channels to weaken to demoralize the taiwanese military and isolate. these government. and with its open society taiwan is highly vulnerable to disinform ation campaigns

so says expert channing sue these efforts i think they are more and more sophisticated the ending to interfere with taiwan's internal social and political lives as in the ultimate purpose most of the time is to create confusion in a society to create distrust in the government to create division among peoples and when there is confusion when there is distrust in democracy then there is an opportunity for the idea of a solitary unism being a step dad and i think that's the purpose of this information it adds up to a multifaceted information war and china has long pursued a united front policy and tactics against taiwan and so try to build support with in taiwan for unification and that includes buying media in

taiwan and buying off some people in taiwan or maybe even trying to buy votes and inserting people in taiwan trying to shape the narrative so could this scenario of chipping away it's happening right now eventually succeed. will eventually just crumble the society can crumble and that ultimately over the next 5 to 10 years we can subvert was government ready to. crumble democracy from within. but if taiwan doesn't crumble it could push back becoming more determined to stand alone and that could ultimately trigger a crisis perhaps one like our next an aria.

cost your mind back to early 2014 you might remember scenes like this. seemingly out of nowhere heavily armed troops began showing up at key installations in the ukrainian peninsula of crimea. adding to the sense of confusion the troops bore no insignia they wouldn't say who they were or who had sent them people started calling them little green men but it soon became clear what was going on the little green men belong to russia and their mission was. nothing less than an exciting crimea in hindsight russia's motivations for taking control of the crimean peninsula seem quite obvious it housed important russian naval base which moscow leased from ukraine. after weeks of unrest in the capital kiev that culminated in the fall of the central ukrainian government russia made its

move leaders here in the west were aghast at what putin had done but they were helpless they impose sanctions but 6 years later nothing has changed so could this is a blueprint for a similar chinese move against part of taiwan let's take a look at the map and taiwan has a large number of outlying islands that could be vulnerable to being plucked away like crimea from the tiny reefs of the 2 album protestant in the south china sea through the pingu islands just off the taiwanese coast right up to map soon well to the north. we're going to focus in here on the gin man islands there just 2 kilometers from the chinese mainland port of shopmen you could swim it. these islands have history back in the 1950 s. they were the focus of 2 major post-school crises between taiwan and china neither

side has forgotten but despite that history today jim man has close ties to charmaine just across the harbor and now pipes in much of its drinking water from the mainland and beyond that it has important intelligence and strategic value according to experts in east of human control. the largest port facility by far. in southeastern. fortress it is honeycomb. there are tanks there. are heavy artillery mortar systems and of course the major. focal point for intelligence collection so how my to crimea style scenario play out. well a possible trigger it could be political a time when the statement for example china might interpret it as breaking its and keep the session low in east and explains how things might begin well the most

likely course of action i think for the would be condemned to conduct a massive sabotage operation against him and so everything from cyberattacks electronic jamming to having commandos and intelligence agents and assets on the ground in. potentially assassinating military commanders blowing things up knocking the power of. china's maritime militia could be brought into play here if you could compare them to russia's little green men being involved in international confrontations of the fishing rights in the south china sea something that taiwan has been watching closely russian use little green men and then people calling it a little bit. because they. it is a very likely that china mobilized those murray time mission to iraq. they should go around the surrounding country and certainly you're going to

see jim and that surrounded by and flooded with maritime militia so these are sensibly members of the p l a but they look like civilian fisherman oftentimes and so it creates a very serious dilemma. for the marines and the army troops that are on cimon that they kerrison there do they shoot or not and when do they shoot and at what point do they start treaty is it when they're closing in when they've already landed and now they're swarming the island and taking over facilities and of course they would be mixed in with undercover special forces. from the p.l.o. as well the aim would likely be to move us to establish facts on the ground quickly like pretended in crimea and it would pose a huge dilemma for the government back in taipei taipei is not necessarily going to know how to react and there's not necessarily going to be a consensus in taipei on the value of g.m.

and the value of escalating to a potentially an all out war with the p.r.c. over gene there are going to be some in taiwan that would say well gee been historically was part of fujian province. it's not actually part of a high wall and it's not worth. over in washington it would also present a tie lemma but it seems likely there would be little american appetite to intervene militarily it's very difficult to judge how the united states would react to or limited use of force against taiwan it would likely come with very little warning and it might be over very quickly there might be an effort to court sanctions on china but i doubt that there would be a use of force by the united states to punish china for what it had done so could this be a relatively painless scenario for china one with diplomatic costs that it could

accept like vladimir putin's experience with crimea well it's not necessarily so clear cut. it would most likely trigger anti china protests in taiwan much more intense than some flower movement that we heard about earlier rallying public opinion against closer ties with china. and even if the u.s. decided not to intervene in the takeover could prompt washington to increase its commitment to defending time one. for china even this relatively limited pushback might not be worth it but i think it's the risk there is that upsets the overall strategic. you know the great rejuvenation the great restoration might might mean as once china pulls the when you're and says we're going after taiwan they're going to go after taiwan if they're going to go with the military they're going to go all the way they're not going to go half way so now let's turn to our final and most

dangerous scenario china going all the way and invading taiwan. for. it's a decade or so in the future but beneath the surface in the chinese communist party there are growing signs of dissent. china's economy has been underperforming for years held back by a shop small and global trade that lingered after the coronavirus pandemic. tensions with the u.s. have turned into a chronic cold war. beijing has kept pouring money into its military but debt is soaring and china's population is beginning to shrink. the party chairman is under growing pressure to break out of this sense of national decline or face being forced out of office by party rivals. this makes taiwan look like an increasingly

tempting target its economy is strong but its military disadvantage is deeper than ever and its people are appalled by what happened to hong kong become even less likely to join china voluntarily. meanwhile in the united states recounts are underway in key swing states after a bitter election ended with razor type results both sides are claiming a victory and accusing the other of having help from the foreign powers who. has the legal challenges fly back and forth the u.s. faces months of political uncertainty. so a power vacuum in the united states a push for national pride in a stagnating china and taiwan as exposed as it's ever been these are the sorts of circumstances that could encourage china to make a move so if it came to that how might an invasion play out. first initially

a joint strike. would want missiles it would just be one missile or one installation and they would use for the war and make sure that every defensive position. taiwan has been attacked every airfield with bin crater every major port stable and then they would then come in and help with their air force over the top stablished air superiority so that any time one aircraft tried to get off the ground it would be decimated and wallah back going on inside of the payments the the previous forces would be coming across and those kilos would come off 1st and launch the land forces is a key point that they wanted to clear through the a splendid and then you come in with a much larger craft that would bring you there within their civilian fleet that would have literally scores and scores 10001000 we always soldiers and guard that could just walk right up here now of course taiwan would be trying to defend itself chang explains how it would have to be smart in how you just it's much smaller

military. all of this assets including the land forces the pan the ships the boat the sub over the aircraft has to be used by effectively that could be divided into 3 basic the 1st phase is to use to support catch the force itself you can use all the sack the sashing have not brought concealment and those kind of a tactical measure will need to be i'm talking just now we will have we will still keep our capability. to respond then the 2nd place and. the 5 ways off the coast of taiwan so that nothing. to hide the country and the people will be away. or the cache of the pending minimum then the 3rd phase and to.

annihilate or destroy a lot of these forces at the peak that mean to attack helicopters and. that they. may dial. back the chinese navy ship but ultimately the best that taiwan could do is buy time hoping that the united states would intervene james final talks about the assets that the americans could mobilize in the pacific the u.s. navy in the u.s. 7th fleet has resources that could disrupt the invasion so. our submarine forces. they would be used to try to disrupt the chinese invasion ships that would come across that naval and that u.s. air forces that are operating these bases in our aircraft carrier that support the region would be. destroyed or invasion so the u.s.

would have options but intervention would still be a mental decision american forces would immediately become chinese targets with a specific bases like konami in japan and the tiny island of guam open to attack and so even if the united states managed to defend taiwan its intervention could set off a terrifying chain of escalation between the 2 superpowers let me just be the 1st battle in what becomes a series of battles. that go on over a number of years in a protracted great power war. and of course all of that is that nuclear deterrence hold that neither government either washington or miscalculate and panicked and her does anything with nuclear weapons if they do then we're talking about

a potential nuclear war. and that would be truly horrific and so there's also you know everything that happened in this scenario happened under the shadow. of a potential nuclear war because that's what this could do to remediate or is an extremely serious and we've been talking about all this happening perhaps a decade in the future but some of the circumstances that could trigger this scenario could emerge much sooner than that and if you look at the internal situations in china at this moment their economy says being affected by climate 19 and go under this kind of so going to the chinese leaders thought or terrorist leaders may find taiwan us accompanying a scapegoat and therefore taiwan needs to be concerned about the chinese possible use of force against us so the world might not have 10 years to think about these

risks so what can it do to minimize them. as we've just seen a conflict over taiwan has the potential to spark a war between superpowers even the most benign scenario we've just examined is fraught with risk so what should the world be doing about this well let's start with the united states some of the experts that we've been hearing from in the us say washington has to make a much clearer commitment to taiwan's defense our policy towards taiwan. doesn't make a lot of. that we don't there's so much. that is right for miscalculation by providing credible guarantees. to taiwan security and messaging to beijing. the united states in the serious about

i want security. that there increases risk we would never do this with south korea with japan you teach you can be used and doesn't work we know it's destabilizing. and yet. we're doing that with our war. a new bill in congress aims to make big changes committing future presidents to defending taiwan in the event of an attack it's also congressman ted yoho republican on the house foreign affairs committee explained over time want to engage in prevention act does several things one it delineates if there were an attack on taiwan by china that it would authorize in a your mouth of the united states congress to allow the president to go in and defend taiwan militarily and a u.m.s. that's an authorization for use of military force and i think the biggest thing it

does is it gets rid of the strategic or political or diplomatic ambiguity that's lasted since the seventy's it's been a just. a lot of ambiguity or taiwan stance but critics say this could backfire either by provoking china or by encouraging risky behavior by taiwan's leaders so if the united states has a position that says it will come to taiwan's defense if attacked by china under all circumstances then that could the argument goes into blank check to write. a taiwan president to engage in more dangerous and destabilizing behaviors so u.s. policy currently is to oppose any changes in the status quo in the taiwan strait made by either side but our american experts do agree on one the think the u.s.

needs at least to be able to defend taiwan and right now that is not certain but i think the united states has been very complacent in recent years and my hope is that the u.s. will follow through. once some of the plans that it currently has to modernize and update us forces with an eye to being able to intervene on taiwan's behalf china's message to the us is pretty simple though back off i think you have been. a country. has made in a. chinese affairs a publisher maybe you know people who do this to mean that china saw the problem and stopped so what about attitudes here in europe. as the czech republic has found out where europeans express solidarity with taiwan china responds with threats but that may make europeans more determined to take

a stand at least that was hinted at by germany's foreign minister at a meeting with his chinese counterpart. they're also expensive though were you when i. swam a little bit switch to. all the girls of all america. but experts say europe still hasn't figured out how to back up that commitment. what we lack is a european conversation about what kind of player europe in the future would like to be in these kinds of scenarios and whether we would like to stay at the sidelines of the or whether the mission the important for europe to not only defend the economic interest but also with interest income safeguarding beisel democracies in a region that is of crucial importance for the future of our economic prosperity and

finally let's turn to taiwan itself from minister joseph says there's one thing he'd like democracies to do now to support taiwan back its beat to become more integrated in the international community that taiwanese people should not be excluded from the international organizations it's not fair to the people in it's also stopping taiwan from making contributions to the international community so i would ask the international community i would ask the members of the international organizations to look at taiwan's role as a positive $1.00 and $2.00 in cool taiwan even that would provoke a furious pushback from beijing and democracies no it. insists that the whole world has a stake in taiwan's future if you look at china us expansionism in the last several years. i think it's not only about china's expansion are they are trying

to export the terry and international order while all the democracy you saw following the rule based international order and of china succeeded in taking taiwan over i think the rest of the walt especially for democracies is going to feel the heat china is expanding award taiwan happens to be on the front line. for those of us watching from the outside we owe it to the people of the region to sit up and pay attention. to a flash point that could blow up into a devastating conference. and. seek out india.

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