beethoven distrusts claim is for the pledge 202250th anniversary here. well, adults like donald trump today says the 45th presidents of the united states are now finally numb. but after weeks of fierce resistance, trump has told officials to cooperate in the transition of power to president elect . joe biden, but he apparently remains determined to make life as difficult as possible for his successor, while biden has been working on the final details of his new government team. trump has been issuing warnings to iran and preparing to order a far reaching troop withdrawal from afghanistan on to the point. be there for us

to trump's last days in office lame duck own raging bull. thanks very much indeed for joining us. my guests here in the studio, our susannah foreign correspondent for spiegel magazine, who says trump us, how to devastating impact on america's standing as a reliable global leader? the old america no longer exists. also with us, erica sram. a freelance journalist who writes for the l. a. times and says trump's power is fading by the day, but his failure to ensure a smooth transition to biden has become a real threat to national security and a very warm welcome to too early for telling the judge that a german iranian political scientist with the afro middle east center in johannesburg, and ali argues that overt military adventurism against iranian interests may prove

too costly, even for donald trump. so covert operations are more likely to find your 3 for being here today. 1st question. eric donald trump's former national security advisor. john bolton says the big question is how much damage trust can still do before the january the 20th inauguration. and you think he might do quite a bit of damage, though the biggest threat to national security was not giving biden's team the secret. the intelligence reports that need to be given to the new president and not cooperating with the new team. that's. that's a risk here in this interim period of the incoming president not being up to speed . this is a big obama did for trump. this is something that bush did for obama. it's something that's always done in america. we've never seen a situation like this where the president is not cooperating with the incoming team . that's hopefully going to be changing. we've seen some small developments this week and hopefully that will get better. that's the big problem for national

security. what do you say on that question about the threat to national security? this threat of national security is most likely is most successful. just they are going to damage to 2 countries where the americans have a, have a, have a big leverage and a huge impact. like, for instance, in afghanistan, like for instance, i heard that he still tries to convince pakistan to to give up their resistance against israel. so he still does whatever he can to leave his heritage biden has to deal with it. well, i think he's also, i mean, you know, trying to address 2 constituent or 2 circles of friends or supporters. one is the regional allies of trump, israel saudi arabia, most notably, who fear that with the biden presidency there might be another iran policy. and

which would, you know, tremendously decrease the pressure on iran. so they're trying to figure something out to do in this interim period. another one is appealing to a social constituency in the united states when it comes to the troop withdrawal enough on a sun so that this is going to, going to go down well with them. so, but at the end of day we're going to see which, which of those developments going to materialize or not. i mean, trump has promised his voters. it's going to bring the soldiers back home. he's going to end these endless wars. and he's wanted to do more afghanistan all along. he had to fire his last defense minister a week or 2 ago who didn't want to withdraw the troops. and this is something that trump supporters, what this is, something a lot of american veterans want. i think 20000000 americans have served in these last words the last 2 decades and there's a strong sentiment. hate we lost, there's no point. let's get out of there. just to make it about the perspective of

the people of iran, if you can, can you generalise about, you know, which direction they lean in biden or trump? well, this is a, you know, that there is a controversy in iran. i think. i mean, of course, i mean, i don't have a doesn't have any kind of fans of supporters among iranians because of its anti democratic credentials. so people are, you know, are not, do not have any illusions that is a kind of democratic president they can rely upon and pin their hopes on. but there is a controversy among iranians. you know, one side says that actually the action of prussia strategy with the economic sanctions on the regime has been quite important because it has been weakening the regime. so this is something that, you know, a lot of iranians who are critical of the regime would welcome on the other hand, and in this wake actually they, they fear that biden opt for an appeasement appeasement policy on iran,

when sanctions would be eased and cash would return to the, to the leadership in iran. on the other hand, there are others who argue that state society power relations have developed negatively. because with the sanctions also civil society is obviously, i mean, the people of iraq, they don't, they don't mind the situation. they're living in, it will be changed by uprise or by negotiations or anything. they need to have something changed in their country and they're absolutely, they're upset. you know, it's that they need something changed in this is many parts of the world. so what role can america ploy in this? what is, what is going to change with joe biden? and his now newly announced team coming into office has since signals that he wants to reopen the return to the deal. who knows his election coming up in iran. but one thing i liked about iran it's important to forget is hizbollah for 4 years ago was

a real problem. hizbollah has been starved of resources because of the sanctions. the sanctions that are popular among ordinary iranians are also reducing terrorism . the threat of terrorism, thanks to trump did there. that's only one of the effects actually, really, i mean, let's, let's, let's be fair. also has a problem because you have a crisis in lebanon, which actually brought everything, everything down and also hizbullah. and they are just a part of that society. suddenly the resources are cut, iran doesn't have the money to be to be active everywhere there in yemen. they are even in syria, they are in lebanon, but at the end of the day, it's a combination of a couple of things. didn't work out 100 percent, and i wouldn't, i wouldn't like to say that. ok, let's just rewind for a moment. the incumbent presidents of the united states of america is still donald

trump, but it seems that he is slowly accepting that he can't stay in the white house indefinitely. so the question is, will it be by the front door by the back door of the tea leaves and will it be with a bang or with donald trump as half heartedly and indirectly admitted defeat on twitter 4 weeks after the election, the incumbent president remains in a solid mood judicial to the election result. no prospects of success. hardly completing mandatory tasks, such as the virtual g 20 summit. after a while he cut the signal to play golf. he seems to be spending more time at the golf course. and one of his few public appearances seemed somewhat inspired. that even his personal broadcaster, fox news broadcast, it is getting lonely for the most powerful man in the world. does donald trump give it up? still is the question, has he given up and he's got

a couple of weeks to work with. what should we expect from those couple of weeks that he looked at the g 20 very washed out. but we have, we have the impression that he still has a lot of sort of dark. well, i mean, he's certainly struggling, as someone, as i alluded to earlier, who doesn't believe really and democratic institutions and processes. so he has had a tough time. and you know, i think he is, you know, trying to prepare or to satisfy his supporters domestically and internationally. some of the moves that we have talking about. but we have to see whether all those move going to move is going to materialize. and this is also a problem if you have, as, you know, probably or the eventual or probable or unlikely whatever. rerun in 2024. so to keep the support of regional allies and also to keep, keep, keep the support of the social constituencies that he has in the country. and when

you talk about movies being made, you're talking, i assume about diplomacy. and i'm just wondering, how do you see he would be the top of your show, the show in your statement that the old america is no longer the america. that was there is a different america. now. are you talking there about diplomacy? america lost its, i think it's america has 1st, it's credibility. people don't know what to expect from this american and in longer and, and secondly, it suddenly left a mark which will go on noticed for the next years and decades. so he has really changed the face of america, and america has changed its focus. i mean, the middle east is and europe is not, is not deaf us priority any longer. so this has begun already. it's intentional. yes, it has. yeah. so, so that in the pacific area is our region is actually,

they are, they're there now, and we have to live with the repercussions and trump was just an extreme and extreme way to toot toot. to present this to us. and joe boyd says, america is back to get the confidence from gloomy and depressed as the others here . i mean, i think the united states is a leader will be a leader. and i think that's one of the reasons biden wanted to run for president. he wanted to help restore the united states tradition, the reputation as being a leader, and he likes working with alliances. he likes working with partners. he gave a very important speech last year at the munich security conference, talking about alliances. i think biden will be a lot like previous american republican and democratic presidents, i think trump will be the aberration. we look back at this period in history. diplomacy is back so definitely, i mean look at his choice for foreign secretary of state. i mean, this is somebody who works, who's lived a lot of his life in europe and is realizes the importance of him realize the

values of these relations and alliances and biden says himself, the united states is stronger with his partners. is a new sound, a new tone coming from washington. i think the last 4 years of hard and a lot of people in europe, they think horrible things about their states, but it worked in the institutions work, democracy worked and now we have a new president after 4 years of donald trump. a major rebuilding job has just begun. it's already underway. toronto, do you buy into it? well, i mean, as much as, you know, trump tried to revive its reverse everything obama did biden is going to do the same when it comes to trump's policies. yet we're not going to see a sea change on all conceivable levels, some of the things that were preceding him, the, you know, the disagreements over the role of european partners and nato. the issue with china

and also i mean, biden, it's true that biden has decades of you know, experience in the foreign policy establishment, but realities in the ground and release have tried to magically changed since a decade ago. we have entered a process where, you know, some people call it a long term revolutionary process, where there's a lot of, you know, dissatisfaction uprisings all over the place. so this is, there is changing realities on the ground. and there probably also different expectations from the united states. so the challenges are extreme, but surely he can mend transatlantic relations. there is also an appetite for that here in europe. ok when you talk about change, you know, the ground, the parts of the world we're talking about. and since that is the one that goes from the middle east through iran, right over to afghanistan, donald trump has had an impact. now let's have a look at what, where things stand for the time being, and then we'll talk more about those revolutionary pushes.

afghanistan and iraq. the president is creating facts before the new one is sworn in trucks withdrawn 2000 u.s. soldiers from him alone by mid january outraged because without american air support, their deployments on the ground could become suicide missions. the taliban could regain power, and afghanistan could once again become a haven of terror. but tribes policies have many supporters in the rich countries of the middle east. bahrain and the united arab emirates have established diplomatic relations with israel, with the help of u.s. mediation. saudi arabia may be the next to do so. the palestinians and their interests, however, have been completely ignored by towards iran is legendary. after he terminated the iran nuclear deal, sanctions and threats against tehran followed even an air strike on iran under

trump cannot be ruled out, will transform policy become a security risk in the final days of his term in office. is there a biden doctrine? as far as i can see, there is a doctrine that he wants to to heal the wounds that trump has created. the doctrine is certainly to to reunite with the allies. but the u.s. is not an interesting country. it's a country driven by and trysts. finally, what we see is a nicer, nicer approach. good intentions, good didn't get in times are back, which is a good thing, which is a great thing. and at the same time, the interests will stay the same. i mean,

there's much more room for negotiations now, which is wonderful. and people who know their job and know have their expertise busy having a party to be heard, which has not been the case in the last 4 years, or only rarely has been the case. so i think that's definitely true, but it would be real c. is not the america we have seen 5 years ago, or which we have known 5 years ago. and america tell me about the mood, the mood on the streets in iran. and how do you know this diplomatic, this new would be new diplomatic approach high and the people down on the streets getting more and more angry and impoverished in iran have together. i mean, i think, i mean 1st point to point out how the iranian leadership also thinks about this question of been fearing the ramifications of transmatch on the maximum pressure strategy because of the economic sanctions that were quite onerous on the regime.

and so as there was a lot of hopes pinned on the biden administrator from the leadership side, it's quite clear from, from the societal level of alluded to. there are different estimations on, on the benefits of sanctions and, and some sanctions might be in favor of sanctions. but there are other important sections in sections of the population in iran who fear the you know, the ramifications of economic sanctions on the general population. but be it as it may, the general feeling for a few years now, at least in iran, is that they identify the policies of their own governments to be the most important fact in their own fate for their own interesting observation. so, so foreign forces, although they have been very important impact upon iran beats by action or by in

action be it's the united states or europe will have a continuing impact. but there are no more, let's say there are no more illusions that there is a foreign savior. although the domestic situation in iran that is also not really, you know, filled with hope, pushes some people to think about a foreign savior. but i think also didn't prove to be, you know, aiding iranian democracy. yeah. so the administration is promising say kind of a radically different approach. i just want to thank you know, something like the american assurance that recognition of jerusalem as thing as the capital of israel is not the kind of policy that joe biden might reverse where, where we expect you were versus, you know, i don't think america will change a policy with the cap,

with the embassy in jerusalem, and the recognition of the capital. trump is hugely popular in israel. he's been very pro israel from the beginning as we, as we saw him. other thing is done in the middle east. it's important. it's also written about in the u.s. press lot is the, the in the piece with u.a.e. and possibly saudi arabia. this is something that's getting a lot of attention or got a lot of attention. the us also from from liberal columnists who are praising trump, saying in other times he'd be nominated for the nobel peace prize. and i know in germany, trump is not that popular, and i was really interested to see the media hardly wrote about that, but there were quite a few liberal journalists here agenda as well. yeah, but i mean, in germany, if that had been obama, it would have had a lot different story, i think. so you see how unfair sometimes the media is towards trump, especially in europe. and that was a pretty big, important breakthrough. and i think that's something a legacy that will trump will be remembered for. the breakthrough with you, a in saudi arabia, would be actually more cautious because what actually happened under trump's watch

is an official izing of some of them that america's policies and realities in the region that were there. you know, so there was cooperation between all those states, you know, more covertly than overtly and now it is official ised plus the fact that none of those regimes are, you know, democratic there are, you know, very authoritarian regimes. and they, by no account can, you know, represent the arab populations and their aspirations in the region so, so this is, you know, this is not a positive development, per se, that there is now a, you know, peace deal between beheading in saudi arabia. the u.a.e. and israel, this is not something you know, that is going to lead necessarily to a positive development for the region and also 2 positive outcomes for the populations of the region. so there is a lot of you know, euphoria about what was happening. although i think it's much of that you're for is misleading. it's also not the end of the story. i would say. i mean for instance,

i mean you, you can, you can befriend the u.a.e. about at the end of the day. the problem is not solved with the palestinians, so you cannot ignore the meeting, put into that through the history books is there to solve? no, it's not solved. i mean, the palestinian issue is still there. it's considered as failed. now. i mean, you have huge frustration in the palestinian communities and just look to jordan for instance. i mean they take, they, they have taken like millions of palestinians. and where shall they go? actually, they just, they just leave the problem in the region and give it back to people who can deal with it. and that's not what it, what it, what the world power or the superpower should do is they should actually try to balance. and they try to, to, to heal what, what, what this, what this story in the history has done to this people,

the palestinians, for instance, a general course she was, we don't have much time. and i'm just interested in the, in the sort of the philosophy of all this to biden has said he won't just try to repair diplomacy. he'll try to reimagine diplomacy that i thought was an interesting juncture in his policy, foreign policy address just a couple days ago. and i, but i, but what does it mean, reimagine diplomacy? who's going to, who's the quickest? as much as i think that what trump did with all those states in the region is a p.r. stunt. the same could be applied to what just, you know, what you just quoted from biden. i mean, it would be very desirable if the united states would go for some creative diplomacy in a very, some of the, you know, very difficult spots of your theory of conflict in the region. but i'm actually not sure what he was really meaning by that as far as relations between washington and europe and germany go with nato. i think

it's pretty clear, i think the united states under biden, just like under trumpet obama wants germany and the nato allies in europe to do more for their own security. i think that's very clear. all the comments we've seen have been clear that germany needs to do more. some parties in germany want to do more. but this idea about rebadging diplomacy. i mean biden's main challenge and something he's talking about it's hide from climate is 19, and i think that's going to be it's number one priority and i think he'd like to see the world working together. maybe that's what he's talking about. seen countries working together as we're seeing with the vaccines that are coming out. these are cooperation saying place that's probably where biden is hoping for the biggest breakthroughs as quickly as possible with the coronavirus. i mean, if you, if you, if you want reinvent diplomacy, if you can't, you should not talk to one side only. i mean, if we spoke about this huge success, which is a success that shoe normalize relations. but it is actually,

if you actually build alliance against a common enemy, and this is actually the target of this. and this is the only thing everybody can agree on. that's not really a promise which is very fruitful and naive. it's naive him. you know, he's certainly not naive and he has to deal with that. i mean, it's progress in some way, but you also have to address the other issues which have not been addressed by, by, by, by trump. he just tried to dry out to suffocate iran, which is actually quite unlikely that he'd really sexy trump's last days in office . elaine don't go raging bull. that was the question we asked at the beginning of the show once you're on sunday. i think there is no easy answer to this and i don't know what it was and what it's going to happen. but we're going to see some, some acts that might be symbolic and that he wants to address, you know,

his supporters are there too and he wants to guarantee that they will continue to do so in the next few years. i think will be or more lame duck to be playing, work golf and keep pardoning prisoners and people who have helped him. but i think playing golf is actually a good thing. the more he plays golf, the less damage you can perhaps to the final word. i hope as well that see has he had can improve his handicap, but but at the same time we'll see it more from socom, more troops to come. can you very much for joining us here on the point this, we've got an interesting place to finish, that will give you plenty of food for thought. if we have, by for

you

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