as we take on the world. where it. is the stories that matter to you. about something. good if you what ever it takes if you are running up. the truth to explain why there is nothing w. mark made for mines. the united kingdom has made history by becoming the 1st and only country to fully leave the yugo european union the 2 sides did manage to come up with a last minute trade agreement to prevent a possibly harmful no deal departure now though they must learn to live together geographically but politically independent prime minister boris johnson has promised a golden age for the british people so on to the point we are breaks it can the

u.k. really go it alone. thanks so much for joining us here on the show where my guests are professor tanya old bert so from burlington free university who argues that london is left with no influence over either new regulations all the size of financial contributions instead of taking back control it's taxation without representation also with us is john worth a british blogger based here in germany who argues that as the u.k. e.u. trade deal begins to be understood there are going to be a lot of unhappy people on both sides of the channel and a very warm welcome to tell not all berlin bureau chief of the british economy.

since the deal reflects the british desire to reduce market access and trains links in exchange for a greater degree of sovereignty in the limited respect he says it can be considered a success. thank you all 3 for being it's a very interesting statements that turn your attorney a. professor from the year for university here in berlin. history has been made britain has gone house boris johnson delivered. i would say no boris johnson has not delivered because he promised that britain would take back control and i don't see that britain has actually taken back control it is still subject in direct at least to e.u. regulations because i mean they agree that there can be divergence but only as long as fair competition is guaranteed and this is decided in the end by the e.u. u.k. partnership council so it's not decided by departed government secondly britain will continue to pay into the us budget so british money taxpayers' money still

will go to brussels because less than before yes true but still it does and britain has no control of how how high that these contributions will be so i think i mean we can talk about what sovereignty means that if it means independent decision making i think britain will be very much constrained by what the e.u. will decide in the future so what do you make of all. i have to agree. i mean well i think the place to start perhaps because partly because it animated so many of the people who back breaks it in the 1st place is actually on immigration one of the elements that the government always boasted that it was going to take back control of britain's borders now it is true that they will of course they will no longer be free movement of e.u. citizens to britain and advice. it's not entirely clear what immigration regime is for britain is going to replace what we have in the past. and from an economic

point of view you might consider the percentage shot itself in the foot but to put it bluntly when you're a member of the european union you do not have control of your borders in the sense you are obliged under most circumstances borders opened to citizens from the rest of the club britain no longer has to do that on the regulator side tell us discussing that's the i mean the proof of the pudding is going to be in the eating we have to see how all of these mechanisms these councils these joint associations work in practice because everybody to a certain extent is groping in the dark here these things have been set up from scratch there isn't in most cases there isn't really a model for them what i'm going to be curious to watch is not so much the extent to which britain now 6 diversion whatever particular rules it has concerns about in the single market in most cases i don't think they have been the want to divert from them what it seeks to do in the future things like emerging technologies. where britain might. some members of this or a future british government might decide that it would be in the national interest

not necessarily to follow european regulations and to go it alone tony be nodding vigorously i agree with that a pragmatic level but for me the big question is how pragmatic is the british government in approaching what comes next for me this is essentially an ideological . or even a political win potentially for boris johnson but the practical headaches which are going to come are going to make this thing turn quite sour quite quickly for a lot of british people whether that's ultimately going to eat or turns how's it going to turn what it's going to have a practical impact for. everyone's lives but for millions of citizens lives at a very practical everyday level prices will increase we know that there are already difficulties in shortages in northern ireland with the supply of food to northern irish supermarkets we've seen german postage companies refusing to send packages to the u.k. at the moment due to increasing bureaucracy for. a bit of coronavirus in on that

one as well when british try to go on holiday and there they face additional complications or want to go and visit a holiday home those kinds of issues pretty small companies that simply say we can't actually export to the european union any longer because the bureaucracy of so doing is that much more complicated so those are the very same series of complicated practical difficulties that britain and on the european union side if you're exporting from the e.u. to the u.k. as well are not solved we don't know the answers to those sorts of practical problems so far but politically speaking very strong from say the superficial level at least it looks like he's delivered. boris johnson for his own part. of the deal that we've just been talking about has opened a new chapter in britain british history allowing the british people to take control of their own law lords and their national defense debts destiny let's take a brief look at some of the changes that will click in over the coming weeks and

months. vacationing in spain will become even more complicated for brits who crave the sun if they want to stay there longer than 90 days they'll need a visa. british citizens have lost the right to freedom of movement in europe. moreover e.u. citizens who live in britain and want to work there will now have to prove their value to the state by a point based immigration system. this is bad news for british farmers who rely on e.u. workers during harvest seasons. massive traffic jams on the nation's borders will become routine because of all goods that come in and go out of the country will be checked for customs documents. it's also a blow to fishers in northern france. they can no longer fish in british waters from which they've gotten 80 percent of their fish until now.

a lot will change for british bankers and shareholders as well when where and how much they can work will be decided in brussels. it's a treat to service. your you've got a point do you really want to make out with it. 2 things 1st i agree that migration is really a point where britain can take back control though be fair both with regard to time and not on the island you know if the border between the e.u. and britain is not at the british border it's actually within britain and so i mean that ok granted the point with migration what about the services you know i mean this is a trait and for the e.u. this is important but for britain the financial service sector is much more important and nothing was a great he is so it will depend a lot of what's going to happen in the future with regard to a deal

a potential deal between the e.u. and the u.k. that needs to be struck and probably will take quite a while tom reality will slowly sink in. i mean i think in terms of the economic impact to the country clearly what we have done to put it bluntly is we have erected barriers to trade that didn't exist previously and that means that britain will be poorer than it otherwise would have been it's a pretty sort of straightforward trade off was going to be interesting is to see to what extent the deal that was just agreed can provide some sort of basis for building up more expensive things in the future so you just talk about financial services is absolutely crucial essential part of the british economy which should basically don't feature in the deal at all. i have no idea how that will play out but what does seem clear is that if britain wants more access into the single market for its very substantial financial services industry then it will need to make concessions and that made it look something like having ironically

a more relaxed rule of migration to e.u. workers now that's clearly not something is going to happen anytime soon but over the long term you know i think everything is up for grabs and we always have to remember what happened in the years leading up to britain's original accession into what was then the european community in the early seventy's it was britain looking at its neighbors looking at france looking at west germany and thinking they seem to be growing richer than us what's going on there and you've just said that the u.k. is going to become poorer wasn't part of the proof of the promise wasn't all about abstract things like sovereignty and freedom it was a concrete promise that people were going to have better lives in the foreseeable future poorer than it would otherwise be poorer than it is now which i think is an important distinction to make i mean we all know that the campaign that the brics it is. spun the british electorate a few tall tales in the course of the campaign and beforehand but i mean i don't

think there's any simpler way to put it than that if you put up barriers to trade especially with what is by fire largest trading partner then you are going to be poorer than you otherwise would. been and sort of questions about the contribution to the e.u. budget is neither here nor there yes britain was a net control contributor no longer be paying sums of that magnitude into the budget but but it will be exporting less it's there will be fewer customers for its goods and services therefore there will be less tax revenue they'll be less going to the treasury so there's you know that's a pretty straightforward decision that was made so vincy of what i thought regulator e board is whatever legal whatever else in exchange for less access to the markets of your biggest trading partner let me milestone you european leaders i've written down were very set about the trade deal historically important important milestone major step forward so what would impact is this deal going to have the european union. breaks it is often treated as an instance of disintegration and it depends

how you define disintegration yes we do you for the 1st time lost a member but at the same time this isn't in a way and somewhat paradoxically actually govern ised integration among the remaining 27 members in many respects 1st i think. the deal of the multi multi man to enter financial freiburg plus the new generation. the economic recovery program that was decided i don't think would have been possible with britain sitting still on the table secondly the e.u. has been the 27 member that have been incredibly united in their position when negotiating with the u.k. which was not obvious at the very beginning particularly germany with its strong economic interests in britain was of bullying seemed to be building in king maggot was at the very beginning was sort of calling for a pragmatic day and the polish because of their interest and you know migrant workers sending them to britain i mean it could have well happened that the european union to 27 would have unraveled and then it would have been

a different deal so already in these 2 respects i think we see more rather than less europe so. it is a historic deal in many respects but i think it is in the end the impact for the you will be positive rather than negative ok we mentioned the burns it is that the u.k. has gotten itself a free trade deal with no terrorists no quotas for the same time there's a vision of what's being called a nimble britons setting its own trade or gender and forging trade agreements around the world let's listen to what boris johnson has been saying about all of that and then moves speak to john 1st of all. what this deal gives us is i would say pretty much the best of both worlds because you have a gigantic free trade agreement which you will say you have the flexibility that people wanted and that we all care about to do things differently and better.

joan you were swearing and cursing i. don't know you were you swearing and cursing this notion that britain gets the best of both worlds is completely wrong. britain has put up trade barriers towards its biggest market and if you look at its goods and services this is clearly a deal which is more solidly in the interests of the european union and it's in the interests of the u.k. the e.u. has a trait surplus in goods towards the u.k. the deal is good or relatively good will in goods because there are no tariffs and there are no quotes is the u.k. has an export surplus in services to the e.u. and the deal is extremely thin on services so this idea that it's some kind of win win boris johnson also talks about how this is going to be there was something will be different but it will have reduction in bureaucracy he said about this deal this is also not true because british small companies have basically

a market of $28.00 countries they could export it which is like their national locket now they've just got the market of england wales and scotland not even the what market of northern ireland that they can export here without bureaucratic hurdles so this and this notion that this is somehow a win win all round that's not strong being economical with the truth and they're going to make up for all of what you said with this notion of a nimble britain. yeah i mean this might be an interesting point to bring in i think that we haven't touched on yet which is foreign security policy and i used to be based in brussels not remember at the time soon after the break that referendum you will sort of try to figure out what was going to happen how these negotiations were going to work the general assumption. it was going to be a nightmare to negotiate both with george agreements and then the economic trade deal that followed but it was in nobody's interest nobody wanted any sort of great rupture on foreign security defense policy and this was a place this is one area where britain did have a very substantial cards to play being a major foreign security player but actually in the end what happened is that you

have very very little on that at all and that was at the request of the british is i do little bit less attention to that understandably than we have to the economic aspects of the deal but i'm going to be very curious to see how person decides to use what i suppose you could call the freedom that it is procured for itself on foreign policy here and one thing to watch is the so-called ethe regrouping britain france and germany which is crucial in negotiating the nuclear deal with iran back in 2015 this is about you talk to diplomats on all sides and they're all interested in retaining this grouping and not only on the iranian file so this is going to be one way should it choose to do so for britain to retain one foot in as it were the european foreign policy space ok britannia nimble written i still want to go back to it because it is important this is the brave new world this is the future where you know we can talk about formal serenity and formal autonomy but we live in a world in which states and people are increasingly interdependent so the question

is how much you can actually make of your of your formal sovereignity in terms of negotiating new trade deals the e.u. is the largest economic bloc on the world and it has concluded a whole number but equally reasonably of trade with japan with south korea with important trading nation and britain china exactly china is and britain will have to do it on its own and of course it's bargaining power which means much lower in comparison to the e.u. when you talk about buggery power i tried to sort of imagine what strategy they're going to adopt some what sort of even cooper terms you would sign what is there you know what is britain's unique selling point now that that's exactly the point that britain doesn't have a. we saw just yesterday boris johnson said oh i'd like some ideas from british business is about was deregulation we would like to see a handle on we've been trying to have this argument about breaks it for 4 years already like you want to do basically all good for your russian off the really gone through with the whole thing now it britain had a clear idea of essentially say we're going to be a world power in biotech or

a world power in artificial intelligence or in data services or whatever it might be and could focus heavily on natural or on a few small points but that idea is not got beyond just the logic of logic slogans from the british government of the moment so you'd need a parm and we basically still don't have one from the british government and if i may add that little plan they had was destroyed by the deal because they dreamt of becoming a kind of attacks evan wright financial services no agreement and if they believe they can become a take saving and export of financial services to the e.u. be my guest and secondly this whole idea of deregulating right in order to produce cheaper and then become more competitive is gone out of the window by the e.u. insisting on a level playing field is an interesting domestic component to that which i don't think anybody really saw coming which is the the majority that this government has a very substantial majority was built in part on winning seats so-called redwall

previously held labor seats with a very different sort of a lecture the conservative party normally has these are not voters who want to see britain turn into the sort of you know a single poll and a tax haven no tax low regulation so to the welfare state so there is potentially a very big political tension here between some of the arguments that were made from one of the can could some constituencies of the bricks at block a few years ago and then the people who it was who enabled the conservative party to have this very substantial majority and enable them to get rid of all of the problems that to reason they have to deal with because she didn't have majority so that's why. and how that tension plays out in the next years is going to be one of the interesting domestic political aspects of this i think and it sometimes seems that this sort of the great british people really would like to live the european lifestyle. an anglo-saxon tax regime doesn't really i don't they if you look at that if you look at the percentage of of british g.d.p.

which is in the hands of the state britain is actually not at the bottom of the league table if you compare it to starting year for example so there's a bit of that but to me it's very interesting question is how how do the brits you see themselves you know particularly the english see themselves think we should turn it that way which is. you need to have some kind of national debate and discussion about where the strengths and weaknesses are what the limits are of what's being done but i don't see a country that's ready to kind of come to terms with what it's done at the moment it's a very shrill and very emotional debate going on in the u.k. and a government that's happy to keep on having that sort of trigger an emotional debate you need to have some are some more fundamental political and economic questions. boris johnson despite all you just said boris johnson says it won't be a bad thing for the e.u. to have a prosperous dynamic contented u.k. on its doorstep to the u.k. is going to be sort of. prompting encouraging the new to break with.

habits of old may be but the difficulty is that boris johnson had few friends in the e.u. and britain's trust a level of trust in the e.u. was very low or 3 through the process of negotiating this breaks a deal this physically the commitment encircled internal market deal to breaking international law and breaking a commitment already made so britain can only achieve through practical action what british companies what british citizens do and how they behave if britain can make a success out of breaks it that will pose a challenge to the european union but at the moment it doesn't look to me particularly politically where the britain is capable of turning brakes it into a success because the british government is that incapable of setting a direction let alone actually implementing what it says 60 which. sounds a bit like you want that the e.u. doesn't want britain to be a success i would be

a little bit careful because i agree i made it would be beneficial for both sides if britain came out of iraq said you know strong because we need britain britain was an extremely good member i mean despite all the. rhetoric britain was a sort of an exemplary member state in many respects it has the highest compliance with the new law and it has played a very constructive role in the conference security policy but also other policy areas so we do have an interest in prospering and cooperating with the european union i just want to underline that i think it's just a couple of sort of code as to that. i mean we've been focusing on as it were the economic example that britain might present the european union in the in the. to come to the extent that there's divergence and that is going to be crucial and it could pose a challenge in some respects to some parts of the european union but then there's the political example and i think that there's 2 things that i would mention one is that at the to you were touching on this. at the moment of brecht's it's and we

should remember of course that donald trump was elected u.s. president a few months afterwards there was this feeling of absolute terror in brussels and i think in some other capitals as well this is this whole thing the whole system that we've constructed is on the verge of collapse they were looking ahead at the time to the coming french presidential election and one thing we learned i think through this whole process and how or couldn't clumsy it was is that britain has become a very good example for why shouldn't the e.u. it's very very damaging the 2nd thing which will need to watch in the in the months ahead really is whether this country that we've been calling the united kingdom can actually survive as a united kingdom we have elections in scotland in a few months time we have what is beginning to look like a pretty solid substantial substantial majority in favor of independence in scotland now the. british government boris johnson's government says that they will not get a referendum so we may be headed towards some sort of political crisis between

london edinburgh that and that but then of course we have the issue of northern ireland as well but i think the one thing we can say that is that the stability of the united kingdom as a political unit is looks a lot less safe than it did in the past where our government is if there is talk about the question can the u.k. really successfully go it alone just very briefly could scotland successfully go it alone could scotland prosper on it because it's a big it's a relevant question yeah i think one of the ironies about breaks it in the way is it on the one hand it gave the independence movement a wonderful new argument within togs out of the e.u. against our will the circumstances change we deserve another referendum on the other hand the fact of brics it creates a massive new headache. for the s.n.p. and the separatists in that if scotland were to secede from britain then to rejoin the e.u. and all the sudden you have another border problem to deal with just like we have to deal with with northern ireland an island what are going to be the rules

governing movements of people of goods and services across that border that wasn't an issue if if england and scotland were both inside the e.u. it would become an issue and that would be a very hard question for the separatists to have to ask for another independent experts because this is the start and would be as i have a principle is that scott an independent scotland will become a member of the european union i don't i don't think that's what's going to happen it's at the heart of that proposition but i think you have to be make an honest and admit that there is if it takes one member state to vote against it you can be should have will be spent so forget about an independent scotland and that is i don't see it so negatively because it would be an incredible geo political win for the 2 for britain the country that left to have split and to take a big part of it back again that will be presented as a victory i think you can spank the persuade. great guests great discussion thank you very much i write so wish we could continue and we would go so much more to say have you enjoyed it and if you did then come back next time around chose.

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blood the blood then respect player. play . this is the news alive a growing pressure in washington for an early end to donald trump's term in office president elect joe biden says mr trump is unfair to serve and sometimes to america and there are congress to try to remove him from the white house before his time is up also coming up on the show the german authorities.