thing is connected to. all it takes. to set things in motion a. local hero show called their ideas can change the world. global 3000. the u.s. is preparing for a presidential transition like no other in history after inciting the violence storming of congress donald trump now says that he will break with tradition and stay away from his successors inauguration it will be a sober ceremony for president elect biden next week with security services on high alert amidst warnings that right wing groups could be planning to repeat the angry protests at the capitol congress has responded by the to the storming by initiating a 2nd impeachment against trump who has been banned by social media but the

outgoing president continues to claim he is the rightful winner of the election and his supporters believe him our title today joe biden becomes us president but how dangerous does donald trump remain. on. the. world. hello and welcome to to the point it's a pleasure to welcome our guests marcus kind is foreign policy expert and senior fellow at the s.w. p. institute for international and security affairs here in berlin and she says trump might for now leave the political stage but he's 74000000 followers won't be going away. and it's great to have with us jamie fly he is a republican who is currently working with the german marshall fund in berlin he says donald trump's ability. threaten american democracy is fading but his legacy

will loom large over the country for years to come. and soraya nelson is a freelance journalist based here in berlin she works with or has the podcast common ground and is a former correspondent for the us public radio n.p.r. she says barring conviction in the u.s. senate donald trump will retain his hold on the republican party. so our title asks how dangerous trump will remain and let's begin with the president and the immediate future sariah nelson how great is the threat of violent attacks in the coming days i think it's very high mean that's you can see that with 20000 national guard and other troops that are basically deployed to the u.s. capitol i mean that's what is it at this point 5 times as many as you have in

afghanistan which is a much more dangerous place just to give you some some point of comparison so it's very dangerous and certainly the authorities there are reacting in that way it's quite the lockout in washington from what i understand people are having a really hard time getting back and forth going to work and obviously we saw yesterday at the capitol how people or we saw how people are having a hard time getting into the capitol at all unless they go through metal detectors if they're even if they're members. you said in your opening statement that trumps ability to threaten us democracy is fading but just 2 days ago he held a rally at the southern border of the united states once again denied responsibility for fomenting that attack at the capitol and portrayed himself as the victim of a witch hunt doesn't he there by stoke the ongoing anger of his supporters and also their urge to take violent revenge. i think there's some potential for that given that he still is not embracing the fact that joe biden will be inaugurated as the

next president however if you look at his statements including the video he put out yesterday. he is singing a different tune certainly than he was in the weeks running up to january 6th he actually is urging his people not to be violent he never even talked in those terms prior to all of this the reasons for that are unclear whether it's his own personal interest and he's trying to stave off conviction but i don't think he is trying to incite the sort of frenzy that we saw in january 6th at this point and honestly he doesn't have the platform to amplify that message even if he wanted to and so i think all in all we're in a better place than we were on january 6th the key question is you know what groups are going to show up and will law enforcement and the intelligence community be better prepared this time and indications are that they will but we have to say. authorities are now releasing new findings about the storming of the capital on january 6th as

a security expert would you say that these indicate that that was in fact a planned intentional attack or was it rather spontaneous outburst by a mob that essentially got out of control. but what seems sure to me is that actually we could expect some kind of fun and even think we would be surprised if we would have seen something like political violence in the context of the they can proceed to be in the overflow with november today i was expecting some polling stations being burning or something the being due to do something else so i think nobody could prove pretty quote what could happen and what would happen at the capital one week ago but i truly would be surprised about the. determination of these kind of groups and therefore i'm going to have. if you would call it the play and or schedule or whatever but i think it comes as no surprise given the pull of the

polarization and deep division in the us society that there are some echoes some groups being determined to. perpetrate violent acts against democratic institutions soraya hasn't the f.b.i. indicated that there definitely was some measure of concerted action here we have some very heavily armed individuals who moved toward the capital who came from far away so clearly with intent we also have some indications of very lax security at the capitol and today even reports that apparently there were abnormally high visitor numbers on the day before january 6th indicating perhaps that people were casing the joint and some allegations in fact that certain republican congressman who have not been named at least as of the more as of this morning who are giving

tours to people sort of recognizance taurus if you will 2 people who were then said to have been involved in the attacks on saturday on the following day on wednesday so it's very disturbing i mean it does seem that there was some forethought and some planning that went into it and it's something that i don't think will go away i mean i as mentioned i mean i think there are a lot of very angry people out there on that side in particular and right now i'm sure that the anger is being stoked by the fact that the president is stepping back from being fully supportive of what was going on is no longer saying i love you you know it's now saying i don't condone violence but it's important to know that this is not necessarily orchestrated that every everything is not necessarily orchestrated because look at what's happening at the airports when congressmen are being approached by individuals who were getting in their face or in their all these videos that are being posted now about that sort of aggressive and it runs out for example you know him. washington and being called a traitor here who are on the plane or even more recently was i think congress from

korea from from california who was accosted at dulles international airport just a few days ago jimmy fry. just mentioned it to their indications that several state congressional representatives of state parliaments but also possibly 2 members of the house of representatives the federal congress were taking part in this invasion of the capitol for us a republican how does that make you feel oh it's obviously disgraceful for the republican party but this is the problem after 4 years of donald trump he has brought the french basically into the mainstream of the republican party you now have republican members of congress who were elected as open supporters of the conspiracy theory q. and on and to the credit of house republican leadership they initially tried to defeat these people in primaries but when they still won the primaries the house

leadership people like kevin mccarthy steve scully's embrace them and said will welcome you as a normal member and so yes you have people inside the capitol members of congress who are very much in line i think ideologically with some of the angry mob that was you know tearing down the windows and doors of the capitol and so it's it's a frightening development i think even for the ability of congress as an institution to move forward when you have so much distrust within the body itself and you even had members on the democratic side accusing republican members of live tweeting the location of nancy pelosi during the riot and when you're at that level when you don't even trust your fellow lawmaker i think it's very difficult to unite the country and to actually move forward together let's take a closer look at the followers who took up trump's call to march on the capitol.

incited by donald trump's accusations of election fraud his supporters blaze a trail of destruction through the capital the insurrection is hitting american democracy right in the heart and in doing so the leaders believe that they are well within their rights to. be the normal good party going to stand and you know. we want the country back we have productive freedom right now. facebook and twitter since suspended donald trump's accounts so he can't continue to incite more violence but he and his supporters are here to stay donald trump has already announced that he will open his own media channel. it is not the end it's just the beginning. but just how much of a danger do donald trump and his supporters posed to the next u.s. president joe biden. normal good law abiding

citizens marcus crime if you see those pictures at least to many people abroad they look a lot like a putsch i won't call it a push because nobody really intended to to to fight for the political poll to take back our country isn't that code language for essentially not handing over power to the democrats i'm not sure but i think what has been revealed by the pick is that there's a huge disrespect for democratic institutions and you think there's room for disrespect for democratic procedure yes and a huge disrespect for the political opponent which i'm going to terms is a political opponent but in u.s. terms has become actually the enemy which has to be excluded from the political discourse and this i mean is not us specific i think you could make the same i mean that. the groups here in germany. reflect on the same briefly rippers and the

same ideas this is the really frightening and concerning issue here but regardless of the specific institutional if you need all the specific group they belong to being lied to this united bunch of disrespect and discredit disrespect for the media could be had as well. these united bunch of you know i'm just going to disrespect my concern is that won't go away for the foreseeable future certainly soraya and president trump did a great deal to stoke those resentments with language that took political discourse in a new direction over the past 4 years social media platforms have now decided to bar him after doing a lot to enable him over the last 4 years do you think that's necessary and right or is there a risk that this will only reinforce the myth of his martyrdom i think the latter i think that at least in the in the initial stages here it depends on who else is

silenced i mean because certainly his son and other you know his supporters are talking about the fact that he has been censored and that this is wrong and that he's you know freedom is is now gone and and these are all very insightful sort of comments and approaches that i think are just going to fan those flames and reinforce the notion as was mentioned that there was an enemy rather than a political opponent you seem to take a different view on that jamie for as you said a moment ago that barring him from social media would significantly decrease his influence i think that in his particular case he obviously violated their terms of service of these platforms on so many occasions i think the companies actually should have acted much a long time ago and not just with him i mean i think the day. here is where this is headed is i don't know that private companies have the capabilities or are the

people that we should have policing our speech and so we have a fundamental problem in democracies especially the united states where there hasn't been significant regulation and now the fact that he and other conservatives are starting to get their account shut down and it is increasing the sense of victimhood and the term for it on the right is cancel culture and so i don't think we've found the right approach i do think in this interim period it was the right thing to remove his platform because i think he could have done a lot more damage in the run up to the inauguration but the companies ultimately need and working with the government need to come up with a better solution and it's not just donald trump honestly the more concerning thing are the full of far right and far left groups the extremists the q. and on conspiracy theorists and the companies also were very slow to tackle the rise of those groups online and the way that those groups use their platforms for organizing the very sort of gathering that occurred on january so we could clearly devote the rest of the show and many others to the role of social media but let me

take us on to the newly inaugurated impeachment proceedings the 2nd pietschmann proceedings against donald trump mitch mcconnell. who is still the senate majority leader that will change after next week but he says that. he also thinks impeachment actually might be a way to separate the republic can party essentially from donald trump as a harmful influence going forward do you think that's right. i think it's potentially right just because of the technicalities of it it at least opens a path towards donald trump being barred from running for federal office i think there are some constitutional questions that will probably have to get resolved if that conviction does occur in the senate that may lead more senators to be willing to convict than was the case a year ago in the previous impeachment but i think it especially given the limited showing of republicans that we saw yesterday only 10 in the house vote for

impeachment it's not at all a foregone conclusion that there will be enough senator republican senators who are willing to convict this president he remains largely popular even after the events of january 6th and a lot of his voters i think are very likely to turn on politicians in the republican party who vote to convict him and especially if it involves barring him from that office in the future let's drill a little bit deeper on that. for anybody who did watch that congressional debate yesterday it was striking how many republicans continue to justify donald trump's unconstitutional actions by essentially pointing at the feet the finger at the democrats and listing all the alleged wrongs they had committed why do so many stick by this man i think came in made exactly the point the right point and we are already approaching the next election the midterm elections and the screens of the

last 4 years told us and every republican who is distancing him or herself from the from donald trump becomes the target of some kind of political revenge inside the republicans and him and put the tip of the president even with. even with donald trump about to lose paul in the foreseeable future i think he remains a pivotal player in the political scene and everybody at least in the in the republican party maybe not everybody but a lot of. people in the political party of simply afraid of him but explained that maybe sign of the if they would vote differently or would have folded different to us today but they can express publicly on the other hand soraya in america politicians need not only voters but also donors lots of money and we are seeing increasingly important business interests distancing themselves from donald trump including the banks that have loaned him money over many many years what impact

could that have on the republican party and trump isn't going forward i think that would have the most impact out of everything that we've talked about but you have to look at the language that these businesses are stating when they say that they're pulling back it's temporary i mean there are very few have said we're absolutely not going to donate to him we're absolutely going to donate to republicans even like the amounts for example that were given to holly in a 1000 here 1000 there it's not there's a question about whether this is something that's really that they plan to sustain it or but it but it definitely has gotten the republican attention having said all that i think in the end 74000000 voters you know 74200000 voters voted for donald trump you cannot discount this i mean he received even though the g.o.p. has lost the 77 out of the last 8 you know popular vote when you look at elections 7 out of 8 of them doesn't matter i mean this is a large number of people and they are they even after what happened on january 6th

most of them still remain loyal to donald trump and the people who you see leaving the g.o.p. or you know they're all people who are more moderate who are basically traditional g.o.p. is what's going away there are not i mean i haven't heard or read about really anybody who is a mag a person who has you know i don't know felt what happened on the 6 was so bad that they should abandon donald trump. could the republican party win the popular majority if it alienates a large segment of the trump odors. i think honestly because of the demographic changes underway in the us it's highly unlikely the republican party will be able to win the popular vote in a presidential election anytime soon their hope is the electoral college and i think many feared that donald trump was actually compromising that potentially in recent months given his legal campaign related to the state legislatures and issues like that so honestly that's the conundrum there in 74200000 votes was an

incredible success for donald trump compared to the expectations he actually increased minority support of republicans which no one expected and so the talk after november was about the republican party big becoming a multi racial working class party taking the working class away from the democratic party that is probably more difficult now after january 6th in a very white mob essentially that seem to have a racial agenda in many cases well in donald trump repeatedly playing the race card yes but again he drew more african-american men to the republican party in that election hispanics and so some of the more moderate figures in the party my old boss marco rubio governor nikki haley i think their hope was then to take what donald trump did to bring more working class voters and have soften the edges i think that becomes again much more difficult given what we've seen over the last week but that was their hope and watch to see whether donald trump is able to be an

organized political force in republican politics once he leaves office surprise super quick question because i do want to take a look at what all this means for biden and paris but let's say that trump going forward did split away from the republican party and found his own independent movement and that somehow he got enough money to also create the media empire that our report mentioned would such a movement be able to win again a majority popular election in the united states historically at all it doesn't seem to be the case i mean look at ross perot he didn't go very far with it either . i have a hard time imagining that he will be successful in doing that and i think creating this media empire that he wants to create a school require money that he certainly have right now so i'm cautiously optimistic that he won't do that that he will try to stick with the republicans and that this is going to cause great issues for the party i don't think it's going to come together soon so beyond the political polarization that we've been discussing

the incoming democratic team faces a pandemic that continues to rage across much of america and is exacting a painful human and economic toll our joe biden and coming up to the challenges that they face. joe biden and kamel harris this will steer the fate of the u.s. for the next 4 years the stage is set for the incoming us president and his 2nd in command. after also winning the runoff in georgia democrats have a razor thin majority in the house of representatives and the senate for the 1st time in a very long time. u.s. vice president camila harris will be the deciding vote that will also allow democrats to push their agenda through the legislature in the future giving them some much needed breathing room for example when appointing supreme court judges in the future. on new spending proposals for coronavirus

the environment. and socio economic policies all composers that republicans are likely to block there may be only a short window of opportunity to pass important legislation the midterm elections are coming up next year by then the razor thin democratic majority could be gone how much of the democratic agenda can biden harris really get passed. so let me ask all 3 of you joe biden has repeatedly promised to be the president of all americans to. heal the divisions marcus can you said in your opening statement he must find ways to appeal to the trump voters how what are the 1st things he needs to do 123 in his 1st 100 days i think the 1st. task is pretty obvious cope with the consequences of the kooky crisis and then the 2nd one i would recommend something not to do more to reverse the takes reform of the. troubled ministration

because that brought so many people into into labor in particularly the low income low in the low income clients and given the public opinion polls of february before the cross it becomes obvious that the economic success of the trumpet and the strange and was crucial for is in curing and and for the success of trump and destruction and he would be very cold simply to aruba has been accomplished over the last year jimmy fry what would you say what are the absolute top priorities for the incoming administration if they're serious about healing division i think the big i really think it's one and for me coming from a republican perspective is to avoid the progressive impulse i mean nancy pelosi has the smallest house majority i think since after the 2nd world war a 5050 senate despite the fact that they have the vice president can break ties is

not really control of the senate when the way unless you remove the filibuster which would be incredibly damaging i think the ability of the country to move forward and i think joe biden understands that given has you know it's general approach to politics but he's going to be getting prodded by the left of his party and he's going to need to realize he's president for 4 years and he can ignore those calls for now while he tries to bring the country together. well if he's really desperate i mean if things aren't getting better then pardon trump i mean take that take that wind away you know not make that man look like a martyr i mean that's something that he may have to actually consider. i can't believe i'm saying that a day after he's been impeded by you know the whole thing economic policy that biden has promised to really give the middle class relief to bolster good jobs good wages and so on will that reach the disinfectant trump voters well he has to make sure it does i mean he has to win back that workers' party because as jamie mentioned the republicans have become you know are the g.o.p. has become the workers' party which which is not traditionally what has been the

case thank you very much to all of you for being with us today and thanks to you out there for tuning in see you soon. as. possible. but i'm a. loser

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play. this is day to every news live from the catastrophe of the coronavirus the world prepares to mark i'm a cop the milestone really 2000000 deaths and no signs of the pandemic is affecting frontline medical workers in the u.k. and told to think about trauma and hopelessness in the face of the disease also coming out to us president.