back to normal in the city where the pandemic began. while most countries in europe opted for temporary lockdown measures with mixed results some countries like sweden decided to go easy on the economy with many elderly bearing the brunt. and populist governments around the globe basically ignored the virus altogether again pushing up their country's mortality rate. and the economies and people are suffering all the same it's time for a silver bullet that ends the pandemic. hello and welcome to our covert 900 special on d.w.i. monica jones in berlin which is still in lockdown case numbers are going down slowly but the virus is still very much active so what's next could the no covert strategy be the answer to our press here's what it's about. a new plan proposed by scientists in germany aims to do more than just flatten the curve it

quite ready kate corbett 19 and help get things back to normal their plan basically consists of 3 elements. first they suggest that the government should enact a rigid and efficient lock down measures could include a stay at home orders travel bans and the closure of schools and kindergartens as well as all non-essential institutions factories and shops. government programs should be introduced to secure people's livelihoods apart from that all contact should be reduced to an absolute minimum the lockdown would stay in place until the number of new cases drop police iraq areas that don't register any new infections would be declared green zones in those zones the scientists say restrictions would be lifted and life would gradually return to normality. to prevent the virus from entering

a green zone travel restrictions and quarantines would be imposed as well the green zones would gradually expand and merge until individual countries and ultimately europe would be packed to normal. to keep infection numbers down or sororities would trace contacts expand testing and isolate new cases and local outbreaks of new infections would be controlled by strict measures and quarantined. the scientists say they are no co was trying to gee would be the best way to restore moral and fight coronavirus fatigue instead of ineffective lockdown measures that keeping extended it would offer a clear path towards normality. earlier i spoke to professor in a kickbush and much sought after global health consultant who the renowned medical journal the lancet refers to as a global health reform up and i asked her about to take on this no covert strategy

i think the key thing is that we are looking for a sustainable strategy that involves the population that is motivating and that brings the different societal forces together we want to work together towards no cove we want to create green zones that allow people to live an ordinary life and we want to do away with this simplistic contradiction between the economy and people's lives because they really enter twines in so many ways so be a very keen to say this is a positive a motivational strategy and if we look to a stranger and see how people are living their lives now even organizing the australian open with thousands of spectators then it is this

motivational goal that we want to work to right now before we look to stray let's 1st dissect a little bit to the sustainable approach i believe that this no cut it strategy aims for an infection rate of below 10 percent where are these 10 percent suddenly coming from why why 10 percent. well it's the various calculations from the model is that help us understand that because then of course the infection rates are pushed down the reproduction rates are low and we actually get an exponential reduction of infections and that also means that people can be traced if there is an infection then there are enough resources to actually try and find out who else where the infection has come from who else this person has been in contact with so it becomes

a really manageable system it becomes transparent and one can work with each individual that is infected the loss of your numbers are all the more difficult it is to have a tryst tracing strategy and that's of course then in turn increases the incidence . once a region is below those 10 percent this distracted she says it is a green sound but how do you keep that green zone contained do you do you close borders again to keep people from red zones out of their. well that is the strategy the strategy is even to have a sort of competition that people want to get their everyday life back and if you're in the green zone that means if you act responsibly that you can actually move around again you can't let go of all restrictions we do recommend

that for a significant period for example even in green zones people still wear masks but yes it is a strategy as we've learned from other parts of the world that the contained area the green zone is the interaction the mobility has to be reduced specif course we have to be realistic so one of the things of the whole of society strategy is that a green zone might have a factory or a company that has many people who work for them in the red zone so we need to clear testing strategies a cooperation with those companies a lot of these things can be managed but there needs to be not only the political will to manage it but also the will of all the other societal actors exactly i think this is a very important point you mentioning there that everybody the people especially

included have to support the strategies you've mentioned australia as a good example now if we have good examples and what you say sounds so easy to do why are 2 foreign teams just adopting it and doing it. well to some extent there is a climate that 'd seems to hinge on a real always have a tendency to discuss what's const bitta we have a tendency to say we are different you know one says so be confident from taiwan because they're an island i mean taiwan is 24000000 people who live very close to meet each other so you know you can compare it to the u.k. that has enormous high infection rates and is also an island at least influences so i think we have to be much more willing to learn and we have to be willing to innovate to bring the societal forces together and to say you know we

want to do this and i think that this whole approach we are in this together i must say lived in a stranger for a while this is what has most impressed me that people have said you know this is for all of us this is not just for me but if my i do my bit we all are going to benefit and i myself am going to benefit because i can go to the express or shop next door. professor kickbush they're a much sought after as mentioned global health consultant from switzerland there thank you so much for your time and let's hope that this new strategy will overcome people's fatigue with a lockdown thank you very much for having me. so let's remember we're all in this together and let's not forget there's also

a vaccine available now brings us to alice science correspondent eric williams well answer one of fuel questions now. how long will it take for countries to vaccinate significant parts of their population. a couple of factors will play roles here the big hurdle at the moment is to produce enough doses to vaccinate 2 thirds of the world's population so so over 5 and a half 1000000000 people manufacturers of the vaccines approved so far say they can provide a significant fraction of what's needed to do that by the end of 2021 but not all of it making vaccines is a complex process and as we've seen in the last few weeks a lot's can go wrong in production but hey it's still only early february right and don't forget several other vaccines are also approaching the regulatory finish line

i'm confident that in some places at least widespread vaccination will be the rule by say july or august the way israel is going it'll be a lot sooner than that but reaching goals in other countries will be challenging as was all too predictable and despite the kovacs initiative it's already clear that wealthier countries that bankrolled vaccine development efforts and placed early orders will be 1st in line when it comes to distribution my guess is it will be pretty much impossible for many poorer nations to make significant progress in vaccinating their populations for at least 6 months simply because most of vailable supplies will be snapped up quo. plate logistics will also pose a challenge as some of the approved vaccines require high tech cold chains

so i'd say the answer to the question of how long it'll take for countries to vaccinate widely depends very much on the country some will do it in in months i think and others it looks like it'll take at least a year possibly more than one. there is williams there and he'll be back to answer more of your questions again tomorrow so keep on coming that's it for today community in frankfurt watching it's a safe. kickoff

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