security question mark in isolation. to not have been achieved so much only for you john and i think people have to be at the hoc lucian's money was on the couch and i work at the. nobel peace prize laureate uncensored she is back under house arrest in myanmar facing trumped up charges of illegally importing walkie talkies the military deposed her and the country's elected government on monday declaring a state of emergency for the next 12 months it's head claimed the army's hand was forced by massive voter fraud in november's elections which son to choose party won by a landslide she called for supporters to protest the intervention but is it too late are titled myanmar coup death knell for democracy.

the i'm. not gonna. welcome to to the point it's a pleasure to introduce our guests yasmin blogger who works for the independent social science research institute giga and she says the international community has been living in denial for a long time the military has never really wanted to see real democratic change would be on mars. and with us is félix high joke from the berlin based policy and science think tank s.w. p. his opinion the coup has put an end to myanmar's illiberal and partly authoritarian transition to democracy. and it's great to welcome my colleagues or chief on boomers on from d w c asia desk she thinks the military. seizure of power could lead to deadly

violence the military will reinforce a culture of abuse and impunity threatening to end human rights and economic stability in myanmar. so let me go straightaway to use. with that mention of deadly violence in your opening statement so far the streets appear to be relatively calm so how would you assess the potential for bloodshed going forward the way that i see it that the reason people are not protesting just yet on mass is i think for the reason that they are very scared and they know that the military has had a very brutal history of violent violence and the people in the generation that saw the 988 uprising and violent crackdown on anti-government protest is and witnessed their family members slaughtered before their eyes they will this is

a sort of deja vu for them and this is just a reminder all of what the military is capable of and that the reason they are not protesting yet i think they will find more creative ways only time will tell but for now most people the number one concern i think when people wake up in on monday was the fear of their security of their loved ones and their own safety can i go back out in the streets as before as before it because they know that in the time when the military ruled it was a whole different life. yes when you say the military never truly wanted democratic change nevertheless it's decided to tear down the democratic facade it had tolerated why now. a well i think a major reason ari the november 2020 alexion in which he was called firmed in power in

a landslide victory of the being and some to choose party being on sons the chief party that basically left the to liberalize ation were opening process. and i think the military and the the party it backs the us state had also overestimated their own showing in these elections even though death surprising because it was probably obvious that people still overwhelmingly supported the end of the so i think. being reconfirmed in power was a major reason because the military might have been afraid of us probably afraid that and all the would now push to push further reforms perhaps by amending the constitution off 2008 which the military had drafted originally it wouldn't be so. many off its domains or by more subtle ways such as making the administration more civilian and like get it out of military control so with this reconfirmation

that the n.l.p. micro will powerful in in restricting the path to military and if it works let me get your take on the same point yes we just mentioned the military had to actually establish control over certain domains in fact behind that democratic facade that i mentioned many political offices and 25 percent of parliamentary seats were reserved for army officers why is that no longer enough for the with terry i think that's not the point you the point is that. the military obviously for reasons unbeknownst to me felt the felt that these prerogatives were threatened. because of this landslide election victory in november 2020 and the fear this is only i can only speculate obviously on this but the fear seems to have been there also said she and the energy would now make good on their promise on their

election campaign promise to for charter change for constitutional change and also for the further demilitarization that that's where i agree just means they can further demilitarisation off the administration of the civil service of the country and so on and so forth so here we see that some of those all 3 tarion protests that the military basically safeguarded into the new democratic era were actually in the view of the military threatened the facade was cracking city and this state of emergency is supposed to last a year followed by a free and fair election i'm quoting there that was the announcement made by the military so what's likely to happen during this 12 month period and kemi expect the army to keep its promise that whoever wins the election following that will actually govern. i think there are 2 different sides to the quaint people do

say that the military in nehemiah has had to do keep up to that. that they do fulfill even though those words of promises might be somewhat brutal they have fulfilled what they would do for example they have always held elections the last elections held after they promise that however. i also think that. the military this coup on monday has also proven just how irrational they are and what they are and how little they are actually thinking of the well being of the people of nehemiah and i think everything on monday this very cool in itself just shows that the military is capable of very irrational behavior and that they cannot keep their promises and prioritize the people of myanmar let's hear a few voices from the people of myanmar and some suit she has urged her supporters

to show their opposition but so far the streets have been fairly quiet nonetheless the anger is palpable. you know i feel the army to the people. when it's still huge this on the civilian government. i don't like to fire people so no. our country is just a burden learning to fly and now the army broke our wing so. i'm terribly have i been crying all day i've been crying all day he's the bad guy how could he have done something like this. yes i mean to hear in that last statement refers to the army's commander in chief. when the national league for democracy. came into power in 2016 the general appeared in

public with unsung suchi he seemed satisfied to work with her so what changed for him personally some are saying corruption may be part of stake here is that right. well i think on this point we can really only speculate because the military the military proper couper for us is maybe a black box for up to i mean he has been the army chief of staff for a long time already and he seemed for a while as you said to be comfortable with this power sharing arrangement with the military holding the security relevant ministries with the n.l. to having the ministries and the functions that relate to the purely civilian to my labor policy economic policy well we know that he and his family are also involved in a lot of business this. hold monopolies over certain businesses have interests. but i think the main which perhaps also relates

a bit to the question of whether the military is irrational i think what we really have to understand that this it's a military mindset you know. if the military thinking it's about having can they still control the process in the way they wanted and this goes back to my own statement i mean they never wanted to add to have a liberal democracy what they wanted to have was what they called discipline flourishing democracy so you know are they still in control of the whole process and it's also the military as the core is it intact as a unit is functioning are its interests not threatened so i think this is this is what they're really at let me ask you fairly except to give us a sense of whether you think that many many people in myanmar share the opinion of those voices that we heard in that report the fact is so far we've seen only isolated protests in response to monday's coup but would you expect more opposition

would you expect that to gain momentum. i think this is these sentiments are widely shared that's what i would assume at least given the data that's available on this . and i think anger is mounting as well amongst the general population because of the little support the coup actually has and the military interventions to be then and what's next will there be some will again momentum will it be one way or the other via twitter facebook is has been shut down effectively as off today via twitter. social media channels will there be some sort of organizational mass protest will people come out in force i think that's what we need to to look out for this city would you say there's anything behind the army's claims that there were irregularities during the election has there been any proof of that from

independent observers not. international observers have said that the election was largely fair and transparent. and also their commentators there are kind of comparing at the military's reaction to after how donald trump reacted after the election claiming that it was rigged and it was a fraud and i think similarily the military is using this tactic to call to kind of told time and the to make to plan the next move and but however most international observers are saying that the it was over 75 to 80 percent that they voted for instance which democratic party that's been international observers have also been commenting with quite a bit of surprise about the charges against on song suchi as i mentioned she's

accused of having illegally imported 10 walkie talkies which seems laughable and hardly. like a substantial basis for discrediting a nobel peace prize laureate do these charges nonetheless have potentially serious consequences they do they obviously do i mean the no under which he was charged history you notorious it's very wake and it was also used during military rule to imprison opponents that's one thing and actually i think the most important background is that once somebody is convicted off criminal charges he or she cannot run for office again so i think this is the main strategy behind it that they want to keep her from running for office next time when elections are held and. yeah you are also asking whether there will be the elections will be held in a year's time or whenever i think they might actually hold elections but they will

before that will create an even playing field and part of the base is to borrow sense a key from running so through elections in november as has been mentioned were in fact one with a landslide by unsung city's national league for democracy despite some recent stains on her reputation the nobel peace prize laureate who spent nearly 15 years under house arrest during her long resistance to military rule is revered at home in myanmar. don't send to cheat is respected around the world she's been the recipient of numerous honors including the european parliament sakharov prize and the nobel peace prize in 2010 her growing popularity combined with mounting international pressure finally forced me m.r.s. military to lift her house arrest and grant democratic concessions 5 years later the party won an absolute majority in the 1st free elections suchi became the

country's minister of foreign affairs and de facto head of government but the military led by army chief men on long retained its grip on power meaning that suit she remained a head of government at the mercy of the military. as a result of basic democratic freedoms like freedom of the press and protection for minorities remain elusive during her time in power. is this the end of. physics let me pass that last question right on to you is this the end of. the end of her ability to influence political developments in her country well i wouldn't say so. i think there we must differentiate between the formal political process and there i agree was just made a very much looks like these trumped up charges. quite possibly lead to her becoming essentially becoming boss from running for public office that includes

actually the wider and the leadership she won't be the only one that's what i expect that will be charged on the. walkie talkie whole what have you instead violating covert rules there will be some fabrications in that direction by the military government i'm pretty certain on that powell outside of the formal political process process street politics. mobilization of the opposition and so on and so forth i don't think she will disappear from the public mind anytime soon. maybe that's what the generals are hoping for but i can't see that happening because the new history of myanmar also is with regards to her over a decade of house arrest shows that she was never really away in terms of wielding political influence however informal that was let me ask you a quick follow up question relating again to your opening statement which referred to the illiberal and partly authoritarian transition to democracy did she actually

achieve anything substantive for her country in terms of moving toward democracy or was she in the end essentially omarion that the military no i wouldn't say the latter is true i don't think she was a marionette in any way off the military i think. in certain aspects she's actually she wasn't entitled military she or she they were quarrels with the military leadership but for example if you look at the rohingya issue if you look at also the treatment of other ethnic minorities you can see that she shared some of the sentiments shall we say that are prevalent in the military but also in the wider population on how to deal with ethnic strife on how to deal with quote unquote illegal immigrants because this was the title of the reference used for the . so there you can see i think some sort of coming together however essentially since 2012 since 2012 we have this almost 0 sum logic cunt conflict between the

i know the and also see on the other hand on the one hand and the military on the other over who basically runs the state so i don't think she was a marionette at all they were really butting heads and over the last year this has really hard and from what we know communication actually between the military leadership and the civilian leadership led by unsolicited the fact of the bridge had broken down for quite some time so your opening statement mentioned human. rights but and some suit she in the end was no unsullied advocate of human rights as just mentioned she actually denied that ethnic violence was being perpetrated by the military against muslim communities and she even traveled to the hague to defend her country against charges of genocide was that her own doing do you think or would she have been compelled to do so by the military. so. a lot of

there's a lot of speculation and different controversies around this topic bought i think that aung sang suu kyi. the genocide acts against a range of people were committed primarily by at the leadership of the military and as we have discussed before the military actually hold a lot more power they always have in me a ma and some people have said she is kind of the pawn of the military to some extent and it's always a question about compromise how is she willing to to what extent can we fight for democracy at the hands of bloodshed so she is. she has denied genocide against her or him to people even though the united nations and the international criminal court they have found extensive evidence of widespread violence and

a genocidal acts against their heads of people however to the extent that we know that things which she is personally responsible she is just the face of many people are sponsible for these acts of violence and and this is i think the big debate also is when like to what we willing to fight for democracy in the name because all these people range of people iraq and state thousands have been killed and. yes i think on the songs which she. she was trying to keep the military and her potty and the struggle for democracy on the level and people say that if she had spoken soon enough against the hinge then maybe the coup would have happened sooner. let me ask you yasmin about commander in chief min. own implication or own involvement in the violence he has been condemned

internationally including by the united nations human rights council and sanctioned for his role in the violence perpetrated against the road so what would you say this could do which gives him more power will mean for muslim communities in myanmar. well i think the situation will worsen what we have seen so far will worsen i mean already when the ethnic cleansing against or again joe was committed to the civilian parts of the government did not have much control over what happened in rakhine state and that she is definitely to blame for not defending the ruhi jeff for not coming out in defense of the regime jeff or not defending human rights even though she was a human rights i can at the time but the civilian part of the government didn't control the situation on the ground and it was the military who controlled the situation on the ground and it still does in rakhine state and what what at what's

added on now is that we have even less transparency. off what's actually happening in these areas even less oversight even though there was no that has never been proper civilian oversight to speak off in the 1st place felix looking at the clock don't have a lot of time left so i would like to talk about the international community and what it can and should do in response to the coup the united nations security council met but took no action not least of course because of russian and chinese influence the u.s. state department and the german cooperation ministry a thinking about cutting off support would that make a difference should countries even be considering sanctions against the military regime or would that simply push me on mart into the arms of china. well.

for start sanctions already do exist because of the rohingya crisis and have and for coming from the e.u. coming from the us so that's already the case i think it's very likely that they will be extended and expanded in the wake of the military coup so because for the sole reason that i think western governments won't stand by in the face of a military coup. in basically launch things sanctions in response will they make a difference that's a different question than my answer would be. most likely not at least not in the short. term perspective why because of if we look at the myanmar's history and especially the role of the military we see that has been for quite some time sort of immune to external pressures that include sanctions the generals have actually

did fairly old k. have actually done fairly ok even during the hay days of myanmar essentially being a pariah state internationally through their business dealings with china through moving money to singapore to hong kong and other places so it really affects badly the general population especially the poor people of the country but it's not the right angle i think to really put a lot of pressure on the military itself so your statement mentioned economic fallout from the coup in fact myanmar's economy flourished as the generals were relaxing their grip do you think that will change will this deter foreign investment briefly if you would yes i think that now that we must under kid for a year this will severely at least impact the target industry has come to i think it still has too many tourists at one point. i had a one of the highest percentage of new coming tarus in the world and now that's all

shut down and tourists are they are too scared of the situation the security situation is not is not good for tourism at this time and a lot of people rely on the informal economy in terms of them to make ends meet being that means very quickly come back to our title death knell for democracy and . whether you think the prospects for democracy medium to long term are now dead. democracy yes i mean what i'm basically expecting to see a situation like on the pain saying the government when the military liberalized a bit and opened up the country a bit between 201-2011 remained fully in charge so off the political handlings off the country through its proxy part of the u.s. they paid and i think we're likely to see a similar scenario in the future off of the military you households for all all

unfair election thank you thank you to all of you for being with us thanks to you out there for tuning in see you soon. a member of. the.

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