shiro moro who resigned after making sexist comments should be terse with regaining support for the games which are scheduled for july but have faced widespread public skepticism because of the pandemic. they're watching d.w. news coming up next a new edition of our documentary series dog film and of course you get all the latest information anytime you want to our website d w dot com i'm terry martin thanks for watching. and you hear me now i guess we can hear you and how it all stands gentlemen so it's now which bring you i'm going to back off as you've never thought have surprised yourself with what this possible clue is magical really what we moved back and want . to talk to people who follow along the way maurice and critics would like to join

us for metals last august. istanbul straddles the straits between europe and asia time and time again it's shaken by unpredictable strong earthquakes we stumbled istanbul is extremely at risk over the past 50 years this mega city has grown from a population of about 1000000 residents to more than 15000000. it's a race against the clock posing a challenge to disaster management teams and local residents. the city lacks buildings that can withstand quakes. 95 percent of all houses would have to be demolished you know because. my case a terrible situation. it's not just the quake itself it's the aftermath.

is it possible to predict the next big earthquake seismologists a developing a new method. to. invest my life hell or busy the best case scenario would be to put out a sort of fever curve where every day we could estimate if there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake up shuts off the forecast thinks he far in advance has the risks of it and saw the bulk of the people would storm the banks they would storm the stores they would turn on each other are there security forces or a plan in place for this type of scenario no. the countdown for seismologists and emergency responders is known.

more than 15000000 people live in this coastal city. and it's becoming increasingly crowded. the bosporus strait defined system bill into a european and an asian signed. the region is particularly prone to earthquakes. in 1990 s. than 100 kilometers from the city center an earthquake strikes it's one of the worst into he's history at least 18000 people die hundreds of thousands and left homeless emergency responders are often too late there is no working emergency plan or early warning system in. ace.

thousands of buildings collapse like houses of cards sandy subsoil and shoddy construction are to blame. seismologists expect a similarly powerful earthquake in the coming years this time right off the coast of a stumble. a good 1700 kilometers away at the german research center for geosciences in pubs dam scientists monitor earthquakes all over the world. because seismologist marco bourne hof and his team studying the city on the bus paris the earth's crust is especially unstable in the region for you somebody goofier don't bowl is extremely at risk over the past 50 years this mega-city has grown from a population of about $1000000.00 residents to more than $15000000.00 or and

unfortunately just off the coast of istanbul there's an active plate boundary and from what we can tell it's under enormous stress focus fund. a tremendous amount of energy is currently building up underground. and. just. like all continents sirup sits atop a tectonic plates directly in front of istanbul in the sea of marmara the eurasian plate meets the anatolian plate forming a so-called full zone. typically these plates pushed past each other bit by bit and gas bubbles rise from the ocean floor we can see this from footage taken by a french german turkish research team. that

right off the coast of istanbul the plates stuck we don't see the usual gas bubbles . but the earth's plates cannot move alongside each other the pressure builds energy accumulates. if it discharges the plates could move forward by up to 5 meters that once triggering a violent earthquake. right in front of the coastal city. the government forecasts 30280000 deaths could result experts even say a tsunami is likely with waves as high as 4 meters. seismologists predict the earthquake will have a magnitude of at least 7. earthquakes and measured on a scale of one to 9.5 quakes with a magnitude of 4

a felt by most people in the area a magnitude 7 quake is considered particularly strong. team wants to use a new method to predict powerful earthquakes like these in the future. from fall of there's a series of indicators we can observe before an earthquake strikes. and if we can systematically record in evaluate them automatically in real time it would essentially be possible to look at the beaver curve of a fault zone 24 hours a day when done and then issue warnings when necessary. that would be revolutionary. so far early warning systems around the world to react to at most a few seconds before hand. so-called seismographs registered the less powerful primary waves of an earthquake sending

a signal just seconds before the destructive secondary wave start. mexico city uses such a system then 2017 there were 2 particularly strong quakes here. about 20 seconds before hand residents were warned via public loudspeakers saving thousands of lives. this was possible because the epicenter of the quake was far outside the city. in 2011 tokyo experienced one of the most severe earthquakes ever seen worldwide. the city's residents were warned via television radio and the internet nearly 80 seconds before hand. in those precious seconds the city can shut off gas lines switched traffic lights

to read and bring trains to a halt. a stumble also has an early warning system but it's only for the disaster management team and the warning period is limited to just 5 seconds. at the disaster coordination center that is not enough time to warn residents. of the trucks because their time span is so short people would not be able to escape in the event of a quake that's why our system is limited to preventing accidents or fires for example by automatically turning off the gas. employees of the local transport system and gas utility as well as firefighters are often on standby in case of an earthquake they also get some help from the computer software depending on the magnitude and

location of the quake the program immediately calculates the number of potential deaths or collapsed buildings. then we have to compare the computers estimation with water actually going on from there to do this we use information from the team that's on site for example the fire department and then we can be confident with sending the right team to the right place. residents must also be prepared. at the disaster training center in cars an 8th grade class is running through drills today so how close is the danger. this is the north anatolian fault zone. we're only 12 kilometers away from it here in this district.

that means the quake could be felt especially strongly here. a simulated generates a quake with a magnitude just $6.00 the children and they have a few seconds to duck under the table. it's important they remember to protect their heads. when the quake is over the students can run out signed but not before turning off gas and electrical appliances to prevent fires. if i only knew a little about earthquakes before this but now i've experienced and understand what to do. the instructor said gen tank recommends always having an emergency backpack ready to go equipped with water a flashlight and a 1st aid kit. aid won't come for the 1st

72 hours of a disaster. therefore we must be prepared for survival until help arrives. but these tips are only useful if buildings and infrastructure can withstand the earthquakes. on the european side of the city a subway 9 is being extended. civil engineer. is supervising the project on behalf of the municipality. in the district of khatami the tracks emerge above ground and cross the bridge it is supposed to be safe for an earthquake up to a magnitude of $7.00 but the soil poses a risk. we have to cover a long distance here but the ground is very muddy and unstable. this is dangerous

during quakes robert that's why we dug very deep into the earth to connect the bridges pillars with stable ground. a 70 meter long steel structure will anchor the bridge to firm ground. in the subway control center this is where emergency plans should take effect in the event of a quake stop elevators switch escalators to move up only slow down and evacuate trains. legal. and then while we're filming this happens. i was.

a moderate earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 hits the city. it's the 2nd quake within a matter of days there hasn't been a situation like this for many years should maybe i was a 1st i thought something struck my chair and started shaking through evacuated immediately now i'm here to pick up my child good luck. cell phone service is disrupted him from those who can try to reach their friends and family. and there is the houses here are all old so we were very afraid. i can't reach my family the lines are down i'm also afraid to go home. so on the t.v. i'm nervous very nervous i can't even picture what the big quake would be like no.

one could say there are no deaths or injuries. but many buildings including this minaret are damaged. one day later. typhoon karaman is the head of earthquake risp management for the city he's faced with a big challenge there. the city's warning system did not activate during the quake. you chose to the should it which is short on you can say the system worked as it should have we have 10 stations at the moment but we aren't receiving a signal for many of them not even yesterday our task now is to build more stations and repair the 10 we already have shows where the georgia. turkeys conservative party ruled istanbul for 25 years until the summer of 2019 karr

a man says the party did not do enough to prepare the city for earthquakes something that the muslim fortunately we cannot say that istanbul is prepared for an earthquake today because i know there is still buildings here that are in danger of collapsing but they did it after all even the 5.8 magnitude quake caused major damage that there was a lot who are still. the new city government wants to set new priorities. today carmen hosts representatives from the matter foundation and city hall for about 2 decades this group of scientists merchants and crafts people has been trying to prepare istanbul residents for the next big earthquake traumatized by the 19 $199.00 quake they do not want to leave their fate in the hands of the state alone you know our mission is that within the 1st 72 hours everyone is active in

their own neighborhood schumacher. knows we want to train $4.00 to $5.00 volunteers in each district to form a civilian disaster rescue team or. it's. the new city administration wants to work together with the foundation for disaster management text that. this is a ray of hope or idea we have come to the right place he will support our projects develop them further and he also has plans of his own. the earthquake was a wake up call for the whole city. as a panel discussion the foundation matter informs residents about the dangers of earthquakes there's quite a bit of interest. tells them what they must avoid at all costs is panic. made it look like when combating a disaster the most important asset we have is people but only if those people are

prepared and can act reflexive. if they are not prepared then they become a liability. because they panic or do you plan to keep them like it's a chick. flick by. gemini. during the barratry test seismologist marco bone hauffe has a breakthrough. yes he uses various types of stone to simulate earthquakes so in the real world there might be 100 or 200 years between 2 strong quakes we don't have that time so instead we simulate these processes at an accelerated rate and we increase the pressure relatively quickly and then retrieve the measured values so we can do our calculations for let's list

ultimately we can recreate a complete cycle from one quake to the next within a few minutes and often from. boon of tests a town with a sandstone sample oppressed supplies an enormous amount of pressure to the stone. the machine similar tenuously registers acoustic signals that reveal what is happening to the stone internally. in the world. or with slowly the machine increases the pressure on the stone it's as if 30 trucks were stacked up on one finger. on the surface it appears the stone hasn't changed but the acoustic signals on the monitor show another story it's beginning to fracture more and more cracks become visible like small miniature quakes. 15 minutes later the stone breaks.

marco bornhorst says the same logic can be applied to large scale earthquakes. is in order and we're seeing all of this for shark activity before the point of fracture and since that similar for all rock samples we're hopeful that we can apply this method with the same option come so we're on the scales many many quakes to signal a larger earthquake is coming was this also the case with the september quake in istanbul. scientists from all over the world conduct research at the german research center for geosciences in post in the hope of predicting when earthquakes will strike in addition to turkey greece and italy a 2 danger zones in europe the main trigger is the african plate which is pressing northwards towards the eurasian plate in the mediterranean. in 2016 an

earthquake rattled central italy nearly 300 people died one is she was the collapse of many old buildings this was not the case in japan which experienced a 9 point one magnitude earthquake in 2011. that nearly 20000 people died most from the resulting tsunami that slammed into the northeastern coast of the country devastating the area. researches say adapting infrastructure is crucial this is mchugh the earthquake that struck japan in 2011 is a good example there was a lot of damage related to the tsunami but the buildings withstood due to compliance with earthquake resistant standards. japan

invests a lot of money in earthquake resistant construction for example offering subsidies for buildings with shock absorbing dampers. the money for this kind of technology isn't available in a stumble. 3 factors must be considered 1st the likelihood an earthquake will strike next 2nd in all the number of buildings and. and the 3rd if you know the quality of the construction or how vulnerable the buildings are so a hotspot in other words a place where damage could be particularly great has these 3 factors and we see that in istanbul but also in cities like lima quito or mexico city key to mexico. the biggest challenge now in istanbul is limiting the potential damage of a mega earthquake. in the southwestern part of the

city the bucky neighborhood is particularly at risk. used in egypt from the mag to foundation has worked if a trophy is a disaster prevention coordinator. she surveys the area with who's going to do a seismologist. will look good if you are to get. the houses here are very old so it's imperative to push for change and rebuild. after the september quake 2 buildings were evacuated. the facade shows significant cracks. because those who go. to the free love of the residents are alone and upset so you don't go close. to you for the type can

secure with your own luck one of the buildings will be rebuilt but the owners simply cannot agree on what to do with the other one. again everyone. if a building is reported to the city is unsafe it should be torn down. but there's not enough funding to build a new. that's why unsafe buildings a still inhabited. booster we should remember government only cares about prestige projects it doesn't care about how people really live but they should. try to do that from the it's not just about the quake itself it's the immediate aftermath of terrible fire department wants fires to be ignited by a natural gas leak there's an aviation fuel tank and gasoline. and yet there is

still no precautions stumble on the fires that could occur after quite the biggest risk but instead. we have no time to lose but our government in ankara prefers to plan an absurd new canal through istanbul we must immediately prepare for a quake but they just aren't listening to us after. all do you. know what a major city in europe has grown quite as fast in recent decades. what is knocking however earthquake resistant to residential buildings. in recent years the turkish government has repeatedly tightened building regulations. but the chamber of civil engineers is skeptical of the construction industry its chairman

jamaal good stresses that just because a building is new doesn't mean it's safe from earthquakes. it's a major point. now instead it the title to brew a lot until very recently inspectors were chosen and paid by the builders themselves. how independently can you inspect the person who's paying you. at least since the 1st of january 29th teen inspectors and they are selected through an electronic system where yet but even that does not suffice. because they're often not trained well enough they don't have special certificates so a simple diploma is enough to get the job we have a serious problem with construction supervision in this country yet they did the city is growing rapidly as a result it is becoming more and more crowded and the risks of severe consequences from an earthquake are increasing. that's the situation we're in right now it's

a crime isn't it can one really live in a city like this one not of the government designed these open spaces already they sure to be construction here it can't go on like this. meanwhile the state disaster management authority is raising awareness about the risks posed by earthquakes with an elaborately produced commercial. the message prepare for disaster said if your neighborhood stays safe how to go about this however is not specified instead the austerity promise is educational campaign.

the reality on istanbul's street is not as a generic as the commercial. in actuality there are constant traffic jams and more and more high rise buildings. the new city government knows this all too well it is seeking solutions and has invited german seismologist marco bourne hoff to istanbul . scientists from all over the world are joined by local rescue teams and associations to discuss the current situation. on have delivers the opening speech a sign of how much his work is appreciated the current knowledge of the marmara hold indicates a maximum expected earthquake magnitude of $7.00 of course this would not exclude a larger event as we have learned for dramatically in japan in 2011 but based on historical data this is probably

a solid measure. over the years boone halfs team has worked with turkey's disaster management austerity to set up 7 measuring stations in the mama region. quake safety is a top priority for the city's new man a crowd. he is in close discussion with bone hof and other international scientists their research will be incorporated into the new earthquake roadmaps a stumble. i'm convinced this is an issue that the whole world must solve together. stumbled on. istanbul's biggest problem when it comes to worst quakes is the safety of its buildings nearly 50000 buildings are at risk even a mild quake can damage the village in live in a up with this poses a huge threat to the lives of tens of thousands of people. short of the answer is not only to demolish houses and build new ones but perhaps to strengthen existing

buildings as well. and that we must use this time very wisely to find quick and practical solutions so we can save people's lives you saw on the island john in a quick thought a lot of the. engineer is also committed to finding solutions but a good player is not working on predicting if an earthquake will strike days or hours ahead of time he's focused on the seconds before the quake. we developed an early warning mobile app that alerted users about the use general earthquake in city you're starting to spot it in this bit off the question so we've proven the app works. i'm now here to get support for it from the city on the system in ny i do motionless he should get in on this field i'm sure. i play goodness appointment was put off until a later date. the

fear of the quake has been propelling him forward for years is stumble doesn't have an early warning system like the one in tokyo or mexico city so good clear took matters into his own hands and developed a mobile app in 2017. it's designed to send a warning signal to people in the istanbul area a few seconds before a major quake the app can be purchased for the equivalent of around 2. hiro's a year. so far has set up 6 measuring stations in the mama every chain using his own funds today he is monitoring his station in the beauty mentioned district. judge which. the censor registers tiny tremors 3 meters deep. in the event of an earthquake it measures the less powerful primary waves of the

quake it sends a signal to pieces 5 to 25 seconds before the stronger and more destructive secondary waves. the warning time increases the further you are from the earthquake's epicenter. its time trying to spot it stuck victor system has proven itself that if there's only one station per location there's a risk of false alarms all the cost reasons i've only set up $1.00 system at this course but it would be better to add one or even 2 stations every 3 kilometers and set up a whole network. but he doesn't have the funds for that each new station costs about 25000 euros currently about 5000 people have downloaded his mobile.

only a fraction in comparison to istanbul's 15000000 residents. but good now believes in what he's doing every 2nd counts all. in 10 seconds you could take shelter with your children if you're driving a car you can park it safely if you're about to go inside a building or drive through a tunnel you decide against it these are seconds that saved lives. well you know. that seconds and not enough the german seismologist mako bone health he wants to be able to warn the population hours before a quake. he is out on the sea of mom or just off a stumble exactly where a full 7 fall below the surface could trigger the next big quake.

on the island is known hoffa set up a measuring station to help with his full costs. but the station is hardly sending any signals at the moment that's a problem. just because this is the largest island off the coast of istanbul and these are pre-determined measurement sites because they're closer to the fault zone it's home. to. the team is headed to the highest point of the island. at. a summit in the middle of a nature reserve. hear seismographs were installed 300 meters deep into the earth and covered with concrete. using acoustic signals they register the smallest traumas that do not

reach the surface. this way even many earthquakes have recorded. the depths of the seismographs plays a critical role. we have to try to get beneath the surface because in a metropolitan area like istanbul there's a lot of background noise from infrastructure wind and weather that's bad for us because we want to measure the signals as cleanly as possible that's why we have to go deep below the surface but drilling deep down is expensive and we have to drill at least a few 100 meters so in this case a compromise between the cost of drilling and meeting our requirements is 300 meters deep. construction around 300000 euros was financed by the german research center for geosciences the turkish authority are fads and international. surface cherelle remembers how intensive the process was he said in the 2 most along the

drilling here took a total of 9 months the ground is made from very hard stone so drilling into it was very difficult. it was also a mammoth task to bring these huge machines to the island. and then the drill heads of the machines kept breaking off. i think we had to replace 10 of them the drilling company hated us by the end of it all. the data from the seismographs dissenting almost real time via the internet to the disaster management also in ankara and to potsdam. well the team must now figure out why the signals a failing to send a u.s. company manufactures the senses they used in earthquake zones all over the world. technicians surge of venezuela has come all the way from the u.s. to help with maintenance we have some problems with the station seems like this and they go to the simplest ition so we thought of you know was the problem seems

likely is there round the digitizer as like a running site when it gets or it will stop opposition because it's always decide. because the seismographs are embedded deep underground they cannot be swapped out van and so i can only activate them by remote control. become like they didn't get here. on the. moon have phones his colleagues impulse to find out if the data has arrived from. them and we repair the data logger we know the data arrived in ankara and in 5 minutes we'll know if it arrived in parts but everything looks good. mission accomplished the data finally arrives in potsdam.

meanwhile develop goodnow has found a backer for his early warning system a renowned istanbul geologist wants to further develop his. jobs arbuckle professor. wants to use cellphones to measure the shaking during an earthquake and compare it with the measurement data on site something like this is not been done before we want to combine these 2 functions in the pram and till now it's not been possible to measure how each building reacts individually during a quake but with cell phones lying around the house we could measure that. meets the geologists it is stumble technical university. they discussed how the app could be used to estimate damage after a quake. a few years back geologist change the attack who is also working on

a warning system to predict earthquakes yeah yeah that's no longer his priority because he considers it dangerous. yeah there is that you. know if i could predict now that in 30 hours there will be an earthquake how would they control the money in turkish banks it would flee abroad people would storm the banks they would storm the stores they would turn on each other well are there sufficient security forces to prevent something like that is there a plan in place when you know there isn't there for even if there was a way to predict earthquakes our society would not be set up for it because then you would need 2 and a half square meters of space outside per person but there's no space in istanbul we don't even have $75.00 square centimeters per person yet you just go to the city center the streets are 2 and

a half meters wide the house is 6 stories high if one house collapses the whole street is blocked if fire breaks out in just one house it's spreads to all of them between the young folk are you. only a few months have passed since the last quake in istanbul on the 24th of january 2020 another earthquake strikes turkey. this time in the eastern part of the country. the quake is almost 30 times stronger than the september quake in 29 seen. at least 90 buildings collapse and 41 people died in the nosey region. survivors and rescue workers brace overnight temperatures of minus 8 celsius. emergency units travel from istanbul the rescue work takes days.

geophysicist marco bone health doesn't have much time left unfortunately that's exactly what research requires. but he does have new findings the results of the september quake are in. his thesis seems to be correct. under the sea of marmara many many quakes accumulated until the big quake with a 5.8 magnitude struck. and the big question is whether these fractures the foreshocks are signs of a larger earthquake and. researches don't yet know if this is a pattern that can be applied to all quakes but the indications are growing soon have estimates that it will take another one to 2 years to see if the method is proved correct. only then will it be possible to develop

a reliable forecasting system. best not off best case scenario would be to put out a sort of fever curve where every day we could estimate that there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake and residents would start to adjust to this it would be like what we see with forecasting extreme weather this is not yet the case with earthquakes and there's a long road ahead to get there but this is what we're aiming for and we're working to improve this situation isn't systems of our best. i. think. the people of a stumble only have a real challenge is if priorities to set. as quake resistant buildings. public mourning seconds before a quake. and a full cost. the researches were cremains

a race against time. i. i. i. i. i. am nothing but sadness and anger for the past year. she was their son brother and on the. terrorist attack along with 8 other people the motive this is clear. the justice system in the police are still

stealing to provide answers to. this. 90 minutes on d w. it's about billions. it's about our luggage it's about the foundation of the border. the new silk road. china wants to expand its influence with his trade network and so on the conflicts are inevitable the consequences contradict the book in his book of the 3 games the chinese state has a lot of money at its disposal ok i'm going to know how it's expanding the place serving its status and position in the world to be a fairly good job of going to china is promising it's her 1st rich profits but in europe there's a the morning you can never accept money from the new superpower it will be coming to an end to. china's gateway to europe. starts feb

19th on. the be. played . this is d w news live from berlin facebook unfriends australia the tech giant bans users from sharing news as australia plans to make it pay for journalism the government calls facebook's moves arrogance. also coming up the spanish police face the 2nd night of fury and on the rest of the jailing of a talented rapper demonstrators demand the release of pablo herself who's in.