discover. subscribe to the documentary on you tube. and. you can stop china's surge to global dominance it's one huge question and one huge challenge that is facing the new u.s. president joe biden biden has inherited a divided and driven america from his previous answer donald trump to me once she jinping china is both expensive and or for a tarion it's 2 rival systems apparently on collision course so want to the point we are asked biden some erica again she's china struggle for suprema same.

with thanks very much for joining us here in the studio where my guests are searching some from de w.'s asia desk who believes china has the beings to become an even more influential international player but is the global north ready for a normal western leadership. also with us is felix lee who's written a number of books on china and worked there for many years as a correspondent for the argues that america's tough stance on china could aggravate the conflict and make things more difficult for europe and a warm welcome to tyson from the german council on foreign relations who says the bite of been stretching is set to turn to europe with new ideas about a common front on china so how will europe. thank you once again all 3. if you for being here today phyllis i'd like to begin with you if i might and i

think it's fair to say that a lot of a lot of people assume that everything would change when joe biden replaced donald trump in the white house but it's not quite so sanctions between beijing and washington remain just as high you surprise action not because joe biden already or he does his administration all already set still that they will keep on being tough on china and this is also i mean of course trump did a lot of things wrong in the relationship with china in his presidency but that's only one part the other part china became a much bigger rival not only to the u.s. to the whole world of especially on the xi jinping so i'm not surprised at all that biden is following the tougher stance and you can also see that under the obama years if you can compared with the obama. obama already said pivot to asia we

focused more on asia and he didn't do much in his presidency and. now biden knows he doesn't he doesn't not only have to continue what obama was started with he has to be more tougher you know ok tyson against the backdrop of war to felix has just been saying there are a lot of commentators who are saying that relations between the 2 sides have plummeted to their worst level in many many years and of in a very long time is that scaremongering a result realistic i think there's some realism behind that i mean if you look at what happened in the united states in the trump years trump was clearly very hawkish on china used it a lot in his rhetoric but he at the same time negotiated the phase one trade deal which has not delivered the what was promised and has really stalled in the meantime we have the cove in 1000 crisis which has accelerated everything a more aggressive china greater dependencies. him. more ip theft

and the population in the united states very divided as we've noted but all throughout the population and in the halls of congress there is one thing that continues to unite and that is the question of how do we deal with china china is a real systemic conflict so that is one thing the one. key policy issue around which america can unite this point in time that is it's something that i think most americans and most people in washington see as something from from the fluff to the right as as a real challenge and something that needs to be taken on then one difference i would say between biden and trump is biden says we want to take it on with allies with like minded partners because this isn't a conflict about countries necessarily or people this is a conflict of ideologies let's bring in sujit and joe biden and she recently spoke at length or about 2 hours in fact and it was

a meeting where we're told that they were they were adults on most issues joe biden came out afterwards and said and i thought it was an extraordinary statement china will eat our lunch what did you make of that. yes i i think that and trump. the u.s. has kind of alienated a lot of the international community and i think biden as a newly elected president has a lot to live up to he promised to enforce democracy and universal values and he wants to bring back i think the u.s. as a global superpower a global player and i think he will pick up and so did you let me just interrupt he sounded distinctly ruffle to do some commentary he said it was just a quip this comment about china willing to lunge but from my from my view it seemed like he was he was ruffled and very constant attitude about the future is i mean i

think he has reasons to feel a bit ruffled as you say because china has a xi jinping has said you know he wants china to become a technological powerhouse as the made in china 2025 which is soon way on its way to success and then we have the very expensive belt and right initiatives there china policy in infrastructure and the developing the manufacturing industry i think the u.s. feels slightly threatened and i think washington does not want to lose the game of course and they want to kind of address policy revisit the china approach and so that they are not left behind and catch up to china. meeting that i just mentioned between the 2 leaders joe biden voiced concerns of burbridge ings coercive and unfair trade practices as he put it concerns about hong kong concerns about beijing's treatments of muslims engine jarring and about its approach towards

taiwan is not exactly a way of sort of making friends and influencing people no i think the awful lot of point vets he has a lot of. i mean the europeans criticize it to all these points because this is where china really become. a threat not only on other countries in the region but on ideas so this is a systemic rivalry which has been which has grown and which hasn't been before. china was all before there was also a communist country but they were not so aggressive china has become under so i think it was exactly his purpose of mr biden to point this out well while the u.s. and europe have been distracted by the massive impact of the crisis on their societies china has been the lead nation in the creation of

a big new free trade block that was signed into law life at the end of last year. it's a triumph for china after years of negotiations 15 countries in the pacific region have signed the r.c. e.p. free trade agreement joining the states and western allies south korea japan australia and new zealand these countries are present one 3rd of the world's population and its global economic output china also has an investment agreement with the e.u. and with the silk road project the middle kingdom is forging new alliances and relationships in central asia and africa. meanwhile china is vigorously pushing its own agenda for example the country imposed sanctions on goods from australia because among other reasons the government barred a chinese company wait from building a 5 g. network. message if you oppose china joran trouble how

dangerous will china's expansionism be for the u.s. . stricken with this conflict between china and australia what is going on there. i think. for example it's very close to china and china has very much closer relations to china and in a more direct sense than for example the us and europe graphically and demographically there's also a large chinese community in australia and however i think as china is seemingly more aggressive on the xi jinping in the pacific asia region stradley and now in the last few years wanting to kind of tighten also its policy against china and also impose tariffs and be more cautious

and because they are more direct in contact with china and they feel more threatened and i think that but to the reactions from the region i think the you're up and the u.s. can now kind of look 1st and use australia as kind of a and this example of what would happen if. at the beginning of the show we have this quote from you where you served us where they're global no 4 do willing to accept known western leadership roles very intriguing to us a little bit more if i think that of course there's the washington's kind of putting forth that it's not about fighting china it's about fighting an authoritarian state because i think it's a narrative that's easier to catch on to in the global north where it's something very difficult to dispute you know universal values and but i think china

is very prepared to expand its influence it has very strong economic and bishan however i think the question is an interesting question to look at as well is is the world ready for china as a global leader because this is debatable but china is now. the fast non westen a country with a non western population that is getting the title of a superpower well let's see what tyson has to say about that question how far will the west go it accepting known western leadership i mean i don't i think that the west is trying to countries in europe and the united states canada etc really trying to redefine that they don't want to be geographically narrow they do want to be as as was mentioned values based and that's why you're hearing a lot more less talk about the west and more talk about like minded countries working together and i think that's really the strategic advantage when you look at how china interacts with its neighbors in its near abroad let's say or even

countries in the global south it tends to be a very extractive relationship these are not relationship building exercises that build political capital and deepen trust and we've seen time and again in the past 15 years the relationship between china and brazil the relationship with africa in the late in 20072008 that a lot of times countries and populations become disillusioned with the chinese because they're so attractive so this idea of building an alliance system is something that really is a unique advantage of countries like the united states and its allies in europe and japan south korea which are not obviously western countries for me. yeah i mean it was definitely a mistake by the administration to give up the free trade agreement which was were started insults east asia but also in europe and trumpeted wanted and got rid of it and china stepped into the this whole the u.s. left behind so that this was definitely a mistake on the other hand. especially as

a solace east asian countries and not only australia and taiwan a lot of them trust china and this continuous although they haven't trade agreement now with china asia and countries the still the distrust the still a. very very high and this might be a chance not only for the u.s. but all for all this i would say whoa whoa did you describe it is like my life in mind that countries have to start to think about common china strategy how to deal with the rest of which comes from the xi jinping government you know i suppose i mean the question is does it always need to be this this question ultimately confrontational communication which is the right path to go down i mean it depends i mean of course it would be always better to communicate with each other. but on certain points it's probably not possible i mean what china did on hong kong. to give up or to to.

to. know and other examples or to see young is this is something where i think there's not much to communicate any more you have to criticize very shy and this is what i was a little bit missing is specially from the european countries and you have to have frankly consequences right i mean consequences and treatment the international system the systemic theft of intellectual property which people have described as the greatest wealth transfer from the west the united states japan to china in the history of the world that is we criticize the trumpet ministration for many things but one thing that we can't criticize them for is having let's say the courage and they really change the culture in washington to impose consequences on china even if it meant that it was going to cause some sacrifice at home is this the beginning

of the show we had you know statement saying that the u.s. will turn to europe with new ideas about forging a common line on china is that what you're referring to that i think that that's part of it i mean big question is market access can we deep in the democratic space and at the same time harden the requirements to enter the democratic space with products with services with infrastructure with procurement with ip with data are these things that we want to say to china you know if you want to provide social media services 5 g. equipment all these kind of things you have to abide by the rules of the system which has not been the case since they entered the w t o in 2000 c.d.'s so one headline this week e.u. coast between the fronts between the fronts of china and the us is that how you might see it. a yes i think that is you could describe it like that because i think . there's you know washington there's the u.s. in one hand and this will see europe and within europe there are many different

countries that have different takes on the china strategy. for example germany is in comparison to the u.s. is more i would say. more open to what's china because germany sees a lot of business interest in china and it has a very. strong trading relationship and i think germany's always called for example merkel she's always caught in between. protecting business interests versus the human interests and human rights and democratic values and i think that europe is deciding how much their way. will we prioritize business trade economic development with china or will we take a step back and look at the human rights situation in china turns in your nodding to a return to the bottom line is the path to it united or any kind of coherent european

china strategy or policy goes right through berlin berlin is going to be determinant as it was in the case of the comprehensive investment agreement and it has to strike that balance between its economic interests which are growing with china and dependencies and the human rights values questions of we haven't talked yet so about taiwan beijing of course views taiwan as an indivisible parts of its territory taiwan for its part wants greater independence it's going to be interesting to see who wins out of a. taiwanese president signed when visits one of the country's largest military bases according to this bold statement taiwan is prepared for a possible attack by the chinese. after all chinese fighter jets continue to invade taiwan's airspace and the coast guard operating near this group of taiwanese islands also feels this growing tension ships are dumping thing and presumably for

construction projects in mainland china and nerves are running high budget on the middle of residents are scared because they don't know why so many ships from mainland china are showing up here all of a sudden so of course they're worried. experts call this gray zone tactics or provocations without open combat that are still threatening. the u.s. under former president donald trump has clearly opposed to china in this ongoing conflict the same is true of the ever escalating dispute over the other island groups on the strategically important trade route between asia and the rest of the world. in an emergency will the u.s. risk reward for the sovereignty of taiwan and other even countries. the big questions being asked about taiwan already some are suggesting that we may be sleepwalking into conflict. i think

in this very realistic us we can see what happened in hong kong the last 23 years nobody expected i mean of course hong kong was already in a much bigger influence under the communist regime in beijing. at the moment but nobody expected. to destroy hong kong's democracy in such a fast way of the way the chinese government did and. sort of also a failure of the west that they didn't pay enough attention and that they didn't take enough hard stands on beijing dealing with hong kong so and i'm really worried that this will happen again on taiwan because of course the way china beijing levy you can say occupied. hong kong and got it under its control.

that this could happen to taiwan i think it's really really possible. and for as for the u.s. taiwan has a strategic very important strategic role so i think there will be a conflict in a sort of worried whole this will you know what do you say sir jeremy taiwan wants independence we know that much china says independence means war the u.s. says its support for taiwan is rock solid it's a scary scene aria. yes i think for example there are china may in the future we will see there are some the goetia poles for example. but i definitely feel strongly that taiwan is a non-negotiable for china for security reasons number one taiwan is very close and directly it's an island just in front of china and i think

china will fight to maintain authority over taiwan and of course you know i can understand it from as a strategist she perspective if taiwan gains more autonomy and gain stronger relations with the u.s. as opposed to beijing you know the u.s. it's already also present in many parts of asia pacific you know in the philippines south korea in go on and having more u.s. influence and presence in literally opposite china had to rely on i think china will not let this one card or is interesting with your you're a stroll in background former australian prime minister kevin rudd has come out and said that she jinping wants to emulate chairman mao by capturing so i was again really strong stuff. yes that is a very strong comparison to say that she's emptying is and the lady now.

however i do think at. from my perspective i think in this momentous time china's priority is primarily economic prosperity economic impatient as opposed to political ambition but of course this can change in the future i'm talking about the next few years china has very strong economic ambitions ok. and when we talk about china we're often using it we tend to use a lot of isms i made a little less neo colonialism both orit's hereon revisionism techno nationalism you know this is just a reflection of the of the fact that the west of the the the west has a tendency to to misunderstand. i obviously isms or reduction ism and i would even throw one more ism in there which i would go away is actually kind of defining which is mccown to lism china is trying to create

a kind of hub and spoke system through things like the boat road initiative through a different layering of new lock in relationships also in technology to basically create chokeholds and access and control issues that gives it a lot more political leverage geo politically but the truth is is that china is a very complex country with a massive history governed at multi lower layers there is a huge centralizing effort right now we see this in the crackdown for example on chinese big tech you know xi jinping is really trying to consolidate power in the c.c.p. and behind him personally but it's complicated and that's why one of the reasons we need more china expertise in the west in like minded states because we need to know what the country is doing where the dynamics are going so we do. miscalculate and lead to some kind of instability or escalation that could occur and to from the american perspective do you think joe biden really begin to believe that he can win

against china in the next 10 years if not that's what he sets out as his goal effectively it's hard to define what we mean by winning i mean obviously the optimum scenario is that china and the yunus and the us both exist in a liberal international order that is rules based and frankly developed classical balance of power. are a classic you know polar moment that is you know based in the 2 shows that would beat that would be ideal but we're not headed in that direction the big shift from the trump years so the years i think in this is there aspiration is to you know basically latch up with like minded states and see if they can create that kind of situation of strength to push china to kind of stand back from some of the aggression aggressive action that it's been playing both militarily and economically. yeah i mean if. the rivalry gets too big and. strong. will be

a situation for everyone and for the whole world. but on the other hand of course there are certain points where it it doesn't make sense to criticize china maybe a lot of things and and hopefully. become gets into a more rational way the criticizing and like. but also to. find a. strategy. ok if you want to the point about relations between china and united states 10 stuff opens.

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