prayer to the clock to move. through the crew. is a job. call. to the top of. the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. has the rate of infection been developing what does the latest research say. information and context the coronavirus update 19 specials. on t w. and company force all floods us throughout the morning right now

climate change to fend off the story. faces one closely way from just one week. how much worse can really get. we still have time to our ongoing. success. at some strive for more like this. you may not realize it but you use mathematical models every day something as simple as the weather forecast is actually a complex model based on countless data points. today prediction models are critical to coronavirus planning 19 is still new and it's hard to anticipate how it will spread and. it will affect models can give scientists government officials and

doctors previews of how to stop the virus and save lives. welcome to the $900.00. and to some extent i've contributed to prediction models today by getting tested just like all the anchors here it's a precaution but those tests on individuals are costly a researcher in wonder came up with an efficient alternative in the battle against the pandemic rwanda's coronavirus task force relies on comprehensive contact tracing. to get an up to date picture of how much the corona virus has spread rwanda tests a cross-section of the population regularly using an ingenious strategy called pool testing. the brains behind the strategy is wilfred defun a professor at the african institute for mathematical science. if you go to the community and just people it doesn't tell you how many people actually infected

right because everybody so you always sample and so to go from the sample to the truth to reality you know. the calculations involve complex algorithms defun has translated them for us into an example from everyday life. the idea would this thing is really simple so imagine that you have 9 cups of beans and you have to order one of those bins. and you know that to which corp was the bad beings he was cool beans and paste so you might find. no time to get. to avoid this effort the mathematician resorts to a simple yet efficient trick he combines being samples from different parts if all the beans in this pool are good he no longer has to test each pot individually only

if there are better beans in the sample must he perform it dition all tests the principle can be applied any time groups are tested and it can be used to combat kovac 19. in rwanda sets of 10 and 20 samples are combined and tested similar taney asli if the pool test result is negative all the subjects in the pool sample are indicated as not having covert 19 but if the pooled result is positive each sample is retested individually the advantages of their putting up questions just to reduce the cost spends to the for the agence to do the turnaround time for about $4.00 results and also to test a massively. community also the group just. for the. advantages for these if the virus has spread dramatically pulled

samples test positive too often and retest in becomes costly in time consuming so far however africa has low number of cases compared to western countries and the method is proving useful there. this is really hurtful for the african countries but not only african countries even for the roping countries since we do love these and the problems. pulling up close tonight are people and so we have been approached by a similar countries ghana and kenya are now applying the strategy to mass testing increase have also come from the u.s. and in britain the university of edinburgh is testing students with this method. all of that man is a lecturer in statistic in the department of mathematics at imperial college london welcome to our program and before we get into the nitty gritty of mathematical modeling just very very briefly what exactly is it that you do at your department.

thanks for having me today so i am part of the empirical culture on the covert 19 response team and we've looked at you know various kinds of infectious disease models to inform on public health responses to the epidemic i guess the 1st and probably one of the most important pieces was wary of planned out scenarios on what would prevent hospitals to collapse and what prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths in the population said i was the 1st one and we showed it so as resistance in general knocked out capping off non-essential services and will be fundamental to that later on we looked at the age groups that's a state and yet the dynamic showing that it's primarily depended to 49 year olds don't drive spread 78 percent of all transmissions occurring from those individuals with limited. contributions from school age children and more recently we looked at

a spread of the war once. in england and p. 100 cell and we show a popular ones have an. effect of 1.5 to 1.6 more transmissible the current variance harvests in a 2nd and when you say you look at all these things what exactly does this mean i mean talk us through the prices for example of what you've been doing in brazil. so we start by you know the lies in the real real time data as it comes in and is reported so in this case it's a case data initially there's a case of data from from analysis hospital dates are just number of admissions a number of deaths burial dates are it sounds you know it's been horrific and in the end the amazon. and then you try to interpret it as data with mathematical models so these are. known in your morals it's

a little bit unintuitive to to work with them it's not like i throw you a ball and you know where it lands so we really need these models to help us understand what's going and how do you translate those models that are not linea for policymakers to understand what's going on so that they can decide on specific missions what we show you know the fits to the data itself along with 95 percent credible and the votes to president certainty we show for costs you know various what if scenarios and there's no single forecast right. but the difference in areas what would happen if you know if your bill t. were to reduce in the population what you know end of things. and then based on that you know based on that communication very thick asian from several teams different analysis from different regions alternately decisions being made at

a policy level i mean let's take a concrete example because here in germany and there's a lot of discussions right now politicians are talking about how to in the lockdown now if german chancellor angela merkel came to you and asked you what happens to the infection rate if we were to open schools and restaurants next week could you provide her with a model. you know. yes so that is what we've been doing that they are not they are for the past year for the british government it is just one aspect it's more than 10 or more league teams and institutions across the u.k. who come together in peace back into this and so it's a. it's a very busy it's been a very busy period. i bet they actually do and taking you not giving advice you give them a model so they still have to sort of figure out what it means and make the right policy decision can you support them somehow to. maybe try to make authorities who

have ever tried to really make the best transparent and easily accessible as possible so you know we give them graphs and they give timelines and projections and conferences by adding very similar incidents from very different times of models and he also transparent to some sense that undergo i mean when it underlined all these models all right so if you're expensive bill these days certainly but when the pandemic is over if it's over one day what models would you like to work on. what you know i could 19 is not the only infectious disease out there in the world and i'd like you know primary working on nature be. you know many other diseases are you've heard about aid and friends on the 1st case the snow christian the transmission. already happened does year so there's no shortage of problems to twerk. i'm afraid you're right yes all of that happening from imperial college in

london thank you so much for your time. searching cognitive gears now you'll see what i mean what derek. how much of the population has to be vaccinated before we reach herd immunity. everyone wants to know this number which from the start has generally been estimated at roughly 70 percent of the population the problem is that pinning it down exactly isn't possible yet because there are still so many moving parts and this pandemic 2 of the most important factors that can have a major impact on herd protection are still big question marks the 1st is the extent to which people who've been vaccinated can still potentially catch and transmit the disease even if they never develop symptoms themselves the data we

have so far on this aspect is quite positive evidence from a couple of larger studies now in peer review indicates that at least some approved vaccines appear to help lower a recipient's chances of being a transmitter after being vaccinated may be dramatically the 2nd factor that plays a key role and health soon we reach herd protection involves variants when the virus mutates to become more transmissible people who get it grow more contagious so they give it to more people on average and that makes achieving her protection more difficult another potentially problematic facet of this problem is that variants can also mutate in ways that lower existing immune protection to sars kovi to whether for those who've been vaccinated or for those who've had the

disease so variants could turn people we thought were protected back into potential and factors to. spike the upon the rebels many see falling case numbers and countries with high vaccination rates as evidence that herd protection is already beginning to influence the course of the pandemic but we won't really know we have until we get there. that's it thanks for watching. go africa. mugu camillus kamikaze the national park in congo. he and his family would love nothing more than to live in peace. but poachers and farmers are hunting them down and threatening this species. what's

being done to protect them eco africa. next on douglas. the general trend is clear. cut down even the economy. companies are making millions in revenue from you know technology. and the trend is on the rise. but how harmless will they be in the long run for consumers and is behind the. made in germany. in 60 minutes on d w. i think is everything 1st i'm gonna make a muslim. school much different culture between here and there so more challenging

for everything. traditionalists i think it was worth it for me to come to germany. shop and got my license to work as a swimming instructor to show knowledge teach children 100 boats to swim fast to swim. what's your story take part cherish on info my prince got mixed. up. hello and welcome to eco offered what live by racial magazine produced in lagos. girl in i am person lives in lagos nigeria i've been joined by my colleague sandra

hello crease and hello to everyone out there very glad to have you with us again i am sundra to know bill coming to you from kampala in uganda today will be looking out innovative bubble houses a major area and plenty of other interesting stories. one hear how monstrous frank is helping the pa muslim but so far no particular lifestyle. will also see how south african land owners can get a tax break by protecting the environment. and find out why you can and foremost plug in does not mean. we thought of the show in the democratic republic of congo a country often modern conflict as a result of a long time little attention is paid to the environment but that is starting to change we want to call the begun a park where people are now devoting time and effort to protecting the nature of it

not only is that good for the tropical forest bot the local people and the way to which includes. the sis some of the gorillas lives in the tropical sewers it's. in the nearby. we are now in co goosy be a good national park zoo and right now we're in the presence of miss you and me miss you pointed me and to many members of this family you know. we think it's national park is a national conservation area so the. democrats agree public of congo of the growlers or eastern the land guerrillas have been a major tourist attraction for decades the main source of income for the park are the admission fees foreign visitors pay $400.00 u.s.

dollars each because of the pandemic there's no business right now but the rangers still go out on patrol they want to keep track of several road us troops and usually know where to find them even though the park is heaved it covers 6000 square kilometers per person g.p.s. device for each family of gorillas. when we go into the forest to check on them we also collect data and if we find chimpanzee tracks we recorded back to one that went on to see if we find evidence of illegal activities such as traps and we just manto them and over the coordinates are the put on the court going to fit dates is be used for scientific research the number of lowland gorillas here has declined by hoffa over the past 3 decades to just a few 1000 such as estimates of the ranges wealth with permits hold of just of boston bus a bull city he had its problems experts it's

a nonprofit study because it's a public research and conservation he says poaches and that traps are a continuing threat. this gorilla is lucky to be alive. here we see the silverback move when he was 4 years old he was caught in a snare and unfortunately he lost his right hand but despite that here years and he's with his family. the range is not only patrolled the park to collect data but also on the lookout for poachers and that's why there aren't. we have security issues in some parts of the park there are poachers out there every day and the rangers try to track them down people from the surrounding communities also sometimes damage the park they cut down trees or bamboo.

the park is a unesco world heritage site but this part of eastern d.-r. sea is densely populated and there's no buffer zone between the park and the nearby villages people live in the needed facility some work and see plantations all in the park but most on smallholder farmers. promise experts has not only seeks would show conservation of the gorillas but also to improve the livelihood of local communities. it has also launched a project to replant areas of forests that have been cleared illegally well dustin besser boasts a says working closely with local people is very important he hopes they will come to care for the environment as much as they respect the good guys who go to go the president appealing for some time now has been seen much more often at the edge of the park himself. what pleases us as scientists and conservationists is that the

community's respect. nobody has been throwing stones at him or threatening him even though we often see him passing from their fields. or shot for around $100.00 villages. in the reforestation projects for a project that will help preserve the forest for the good of the gorillas and the local population. let us now come from preserving way of life and forests to creating good sustainable housing up because a big city is a crowded. overcrowded you know witness who is doing a great wind meter on a jury an entropy don't know who builds houses from a material found that in abundance. last. night cheeriest population is rapidly growing and with the need for affordable

housing. ibrahim something soon came up with that idea. he constructs ounces and made entirely of bamboo which grows naturally in the area . may not have missed a monster like this lasts longer than a house built with ordinary wood and bamboo is better when it comes to withstand like floods and garage or you and your family can live in a house like this for a very long time without having to worry that it might collapse and then pass away nominee. which is actually a wood the grass is strong right and environmentally friendly it grows incredibly quickly without having to be replanted after harvest. it's much cheaper than most other construction materials but it should be treated or leeched to eliminate it susceptibility to insect attacks and weather where not all bamboo varieties have

the same quality but if a suitable variety is used to buy him some leases says a sizeable house can be built in less than 20 days. then how about you if you're also doing your bit tell us about it visit our website or send us a tweet. hash tag doing your bit. sharing your story. a note to one of the wall of environmental troublemakers that every year around 25000000 tonnes of wheat and stuff in ocean let's talk old every single minute of all plastic consumption continues to live on the present rate over discarding so truckloads of food a minute within the next. 10 years and 4 percent by $20.00 to $30.00 why is this happening one reason is that only a small proportion of plastic we see this recycled another is that around half of

all plastic goes to product that i use just once and then thrown away now some young german activists are cleaning up local rivers and working with scientist to calculate i'll watch a plastic and stop in to see. an idyllic location on the who're river in western germany but take a closer look and it's not as beautiful. as the time. kevin though where and their classmates have come to do some fishing but not the usual kind it's trash their fishing for those lists are everywhere they look and there's plenty of plastic. what else quite a few glass bottles to. the students attend a local high school and are taking part in an initiative called plastic pirates it's a research project where young students get to do the work of real scientists. they

take water samples and measure count and record the pieces of trash they recovered from the rivers and river that. scientists in kew use the data to generate a garbage map of german revis and calculate how much trash ends up in the sea. the teachers are happy to do their part to inspire the budding scientists. out there. it's something i care about myself it always bothers me when i see people leaving rubbish behind his specially when they have small children with them and are supposed to be setting an example. the work of the plastic pirates shows that on average one piece of trash can be found for every 2 square metres of riverbank in germany. france also has a project aimed at tracking down the trash it's called plastic origins and goes a step further using artificial intelligence and an app we want to move. as

much as brought us and citizens as we can to go on the reverse or you can create either through or walking around that we have bands and using those data using the video footage that they are going to take over the river banks we will be able to. get there. early to items and uses data to my previous plastic pollution the aim of plastic origins is to get straight to legislation introduced on plastic waste and regulatory limits with the amount of plastic in european rivers their garbage map is intended to identify especially polluted areas we know that most of the pollution we found the ocean is transported by rigorous. right now we don't know which groups are the most polluted. but the app can track micro plastics in germany and don't fall kilos of micro plastics per person

per year and up in the environment the main sources particles from the industrial waste and household garbage it's difficult for waste water treatment plants to filter out the tiny particles but a munich startup called eco faria is showing how it can be done using a simple but effective method this is how it works the waste water is pumped into the filter a powerful voice x. is generated in the pipe pushing the water containing most of the micro plastics to the top the company says 95 percent of micro plastics from municipalities and industry could be filtered out in this way. the young plastic pirates agree that more needs to be done to combat plastic pollution after just 2 hours in this idyllic location they found more trash than they can even carry. now we had to solve africa to find out how our tax break helps to promote conservation the

country's fables for its wide life and vast areas of almost off the land and then go there come up with a way to encourage people to set up nature reserves on the property. 88 percent of land in south africa is not suitable for agriculture it's too rugged too dry and too one even. but everywhere you look you see life in abundance the country boasts rich biodiversity but how best to preserve it in south africa environmental protection is chronically under financed. that's where candace stevens comes in she's a tech specialist at the n.-g. o. wilderness foundation africa she wants to encourage landowners to turn their holdings into nature reserves the government offers

a tax incentive to do so. what you're doing here is looking off to south africa's natural wealth in the public good yes and so there's this unique tax incentive to benefit that died of this city this man is already converted his land into a protected area he can write off the cost of the purchase over 25 year period photographer cause fundal and purchased the land 5 years ago and has taken countless pictures of the area since then it rarely rains here but when it does the landscape is transformed into a pageant of color. another special feature about this area of land is that it could act as a corridor for wild animals since it's located between 2 different protected areas . we standing here on about in the on the northern border of it.

to the west and you thought south stretching down the macro national park and then to the north east look up prevent all nature reserve and you can see the proposed corridor linking the 2 protected. the crew region of south africa is home to more than $5000.00 species of plants and some 40 percent of them can only be found here . once upon a time this area was farmland due to global warming and that the rainfall diminished quite a bit and it just became impossible for these people to to make a living with cattle and agriculture and eventually they had to sell and that's why we bought in the farms for conservation. with climate change threatening biodiversity candace stevens has not found it difficult to persuade other

landowners to follow suit. dozens of signed up to the scheme her 1st experience of him.