you're watching d, w, news line from berlin up. next, our documentary is stumble, quick risk and early warning. more world news at the top of the hour as always. and you can of course, stay up to date with all the leaders in our website that the ww dot com. i'm michael to, thanks so much for joining us. the news young moroccan immigrants. they know the police were stopped. they knew that the route is not a solution. they know their flight could be fatal. like going back is not an option. shattered dreams starts june 18th, on d. w. i

stumbled struggles the straight between europe and asia. time and time again. it is shaken by unpredictable strong earthquake where somebody is extremely at risk over the past, 50 years from this mega city has grown from a population of about 1000000 residents. to more than $15000000.00 will have understanding is it's a race against the clock. posing a challenge to do now the management team and local residents. the city lacks buildings that can withstand quakes nike, 5 percent of all houses would have to be demolished. and the terrible situation. it's not quite self. the aftermath took it to scenario us. is it possible to predict the next big earthquake seismologists are developing

a new method invest? hello. the best case scenario would be to put out a sort of fever cur, where every day we could estimate if there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake up ships. so costing too far in advance risk, the bulk of the people would storm the bank. they would storm the stores, they would turn on each other. are there security forces or a plan in place for this type of scenario? no. you know the countdown size mana just send emergency responders is own. ah, ah more than 15000000 people live in this coastal city, and it's becoming increasingly crowded. the

boss bruce straight divides this timbo into a european and asian sides. the region is particularly prone to earthquakes. me in $999.00, less than 100 kilometers from the city center. an earthquake strike. it's one of the worst in turkey's history. at least 18 sounds and people die. hundreds to 1000 left homeless, emergency responders are often too late. there is no working emergency plan or early warning system in place. me sounds of buildings collapse like houses this cons sandy subsoil and show the construction

that to blame. seismologists expect a similarly powerful earthquake in the coming years. this time right off the coast of the stumble, a good 1700 kilometers away at the german research center for sciences and pump them. scientists monitor earthquakes all over the world. all frequency and quickness in because science more legit, marco bone half and his team studying the city on the s b s cross does especially unstable in the region for east. i'm going to see if he had on excuse me. bowl is extremely at risk. he got sick over the past 50 years, and this megacity has grown from a population of about 1000000 residence to more than 15000000 is on. and unfortunately, north, just off the coast of this don ball, there is an active plate foundry. and from what we can tell, it is under enormous stress heaters forbush fund for shiny of him valley islands on

a tremendous amount of energy is currently building up underground gun physic meant unable to discuss and have national my food stumble wasn't again who hon. i was like all continents. europe sits, the top tectonic plates directly in front of it, stumbled in the sea of mara, the eurasian plates meets the anatoly and plates forming a so called folks. and typically these plates push past each other bit by bit and gas bubbles rise from the ocean floor. we can see this trunk footage taken by a french german turkish research team. mm hm. right off the coast of a stumble, the plates a stuck. we don't see the usual gas bubbles at spots,

but the plates cannot move alongside each other. the pressure builds energy accumulates if it does challenge is the plates could move forward by up to 5 meters at once. triggering a violent earthquake right in front of the coastal city. the government forecasts 30280000 death could result experts even say a su nami, it's likely with waves as high as for me to learn. if this is molly, i predict the earthquake will have a magnitude of at least 7 earthquakes. and on a scale of one to 9.5 quakes with the magnitude of 4 of felt by most people in the area a magnitude 7 quake is considered particularly strong. physic ment,

boone half steam wants to use a new method to predict powerful as quakes like these in the future of kipling. i'm so i often fall off there's a series of indicators we can observe for an earthquake strike. and if we can systematically record and evaluate them automatically in real time with them, it would essentially be possible to look at the beaver curve of a false own 24 hours a day when done, and then issue warnings when necessary, and of our new house that would be revolutionary. the so far, early warning systems around the world react at most a few seconds beforehand. what things are so called seismic graph registered the less powerful primary waves of an ass quake. spending a signal just 2nd before the destructive secondary ways damped me. mexico city uses such

a system in 2017, there were 2 particularly strong quakes. about 20 seconds beforehand. mexican warned via public nouns because savings thousands of lives. this was possible because the epicenter of the quake was outside the city. the me in 2011 tokyo experienced one of the most via, as quakes ever seen worldwide. the city resident warned by a television radio and the internet. nearly 80 seconds beforehand. the in those precious seconds, the city can shut off gas line switch traffic lights to read and bring trains to a hope. a

stumble also has an early warning system, but it's only for the disaster management team. and the warning period is limited to just 5 seconds will give you at the disaster coordination center. that is not enough time to warn residents are moving to sort of the ciocca. so the be should be constant time span is so short with people would not be able to escape in the event of a quake. that's why our system is limited to preventing accidents or fires. for example, by automatically turning off the gas ones, get a cache that employees of the local transport system and gas utility, as well as fire fighters are often on by, in case of an earthquake. they also get some help from the computer software isla, depending on the magnitude and location of the quake, the program immediately calculate the number of potential death. oh, collapsed buildings. and then we have to compare the computers estimation with

what's actually going on or level from the to do this. we use information from the team that's on the science, for example, the fire department, and then we can be confident with sending the right team to the right place in the future. residents must also be prepared. the disaster training center in kazi, an 8th grade class is running through drill today. so how close is the danger? in the move? this is the north anatoly involved zone ship with fish. we are only 12 kilometers away from it here. and this is not that means the quake would be felt especially strongly here. assimilate to generate the quake with a magnitude of 6.7. the children only have

a few seconds to duck under the table. it's important they remember to protect their head. when the quake is over, the student can run outside, but not before turning off gas and electrical appliances to prevent fires. that's i only knew a little about earthquakes before this, but now i've experienced it and understand what to do. the instructor gent hancock recommends always having an emergency backpack ready to go. equipped with water, a flashlight, and a 1st aid kit to the switch and sessional aid won't come for the 1st 72 hours of a disaster this time. and therefore we must be prepared for survival until help her . i finished it turned out some lead. i mean it's riveted but these tips,

they're only useful if buildings and infrastructure can withstand the earthquake on the european side of the city, the subway 9 is being extended. civil engineer was defer mortise is supervising the project on behalf of the municipality . in the district of katana, the tracks emerge above ground and cross the bridge. it is supposed to be safe for an earthquake, up to a magnitude of $7.00. but the soil post is the risk that we have to cover a long distance here, but the ground is very muddy and unstable. you could get here. this is dangerous during quakes got the problem. i guess that's why we've done very deep into the earth to connect the bridges pillars with table ground. while almost all of the

70 meter long steel structure will anchor the bridge to from the ground, the subway control center. this is where emergency plan should take effects. in the event of a quake dope elevators switch escalated to move only slow down and evacuate, trained to meet you alone. i . and then while we're filming this happens, the me a moderate quake with a magnitude of 5.8 seconds earthquake. within

a matter of days, there hasn't been a situation like this for many years. navy, i was 1st settled, tumbling struck my chair last and we were evacuated immediately. now i'm here to pick up my child. good luck. cell phone service is disrupted because those who can try to reach their friends and family in the house is here are all so we were very afraid. i can't reach my family. the lines down. i'm also afraid to go home. i'm nervous, very nervous. i can't even picture what the big quake would be like. actually there are no death. so injuries, but many buildings, including this minarette damaged

the one day later typhoon car, amman is the head of earthquake risk management for the city. he's faced with a big challenge. the, the city's warning system did not to vacate during the quake. the each condition you can say the system work that you have. we have 10 stations at the moment, but we aren't receiving a signal from any of them, not even yesterday. our task now is to build more stations and repair the 10 we already have. so this will those, those are turkey's conservative party root is symbol for 25 years until the summer of 20. 19 kara. mom says the party did not do enough to prepare the city for earthquakes. and unfortunately,

we cannot say that it's done bullies prepared for an earthquake today. so people can, i know there are still buildings here that are in danger of collapsing. after all, even the 5 point take the magnitude quake caused major damage. because the new to the government wants to set new priorities. today, carmen hosts representatives from the mag foundation at city hall for about 2 decades. this group of scientists, merchants, and craft people, has been trying to prepare symbol residents for the next big earthquake traumatized by the 190-1909 quake. they did not want to leave their fate in the hands of the states alone. in our mission is that within the 1st 72 hours after like everyone is in the neighbourhood, took us up. we want to train $4.00 to $5.00 volunteers in each district to form a civilian disaster rescue team. i the new city

administration months to work together with the foundation for disaster management text. that is an easy pick. this is a ray of hope thought i did. we have come to the right place. he will support our projects, develop them further. and he also has plans his own that of our the earthquake was a wakeup call to the whole city. as a panel discussion, the foundation mac that informs residents about the danger, the earthquake. there's quite a bit of interest in music, tell them what they must avoid. at all costs is panic, needed, mach lineup. combat in a disaster. the most important asset we have people. but only if those people are prepared and can act reflexively. because they are not prepared because they become a liability. the car be,

they panic. get pointed to them when i get to pick me back in germany during the birth 3 test sized mana just marco bone hoss has a breakthrough gigabytes collected within a couple of minutes. it's like he uses various types of stone to stimulate earthquakes, fish and fire in the real world, and there might be 100 or 200 years between 2 strong quake. we don't have that time . so instead, we simulate these processes at an accelerated rate. when we increase the pressure relatively quickly and then retrieve the measured values and so we can do our calculation, let's list alternately, we can recreate a complete cycle from one quake to the next within a few minutes. and after the bone of tests the town with a sandstone sample,

a press supplies an enormous amount of pressure to the stone. the machine symbol tenuously registers acoustic signals that reveal what is happening to the stone internally just before slowly the machine increases the pressure on the stone. it says this 30 trucks were stacked up on one finger on the surface, it appears the stone hasn't changed, but the acoustic signals on the monitor show another story. it's beginning to fracture. so that more and more cracks become visible, like small miniature quakes. and 15 minutes later the stone breaks. it wasn't marco burn, hoff says the same logic can be applied to large scale. earthquake limits is in

for the and we're seeing all of this for shock activity before the point of fracture. and since that's similar for all rock samples, we're hopeful that we can apply this method of looking from so well in the field. many, many quakes to signal a larger earthquake is coming with this. also the case with the september quake in its dembo 50 scientists from all over the world's conduct research. the german research center for geo sciences in potsdam, in the hope of predicting when earthquakes will strike. in addition to turkey, grease and italy, a too dangerous zones in europe. this has been the main trigger is the african plate, which is pressing northwards towards the ration plates in the mediterranean structure . in 2016, an earthquake rattled central italy, nearly 300 people died. one issue was the collapse of many old buildings. this is

not the case in japan which experienced the 9 point one magnitude quake in 2011. the nearly 20000 people died most from the resulting soon know me. that slammed into the northeast and coasted the country. devastating the area ah research say adapting infrastructure is crucial. this isn't a new up the earthquake that struck japan in 2011 is a good example for indeed there was a lot of damage related to the through nami, but you know, but the buildings withstood due to compliance with earthquake resistance, standard denial bosses, me japan invest a lot of money in earthquake resistance construction, for example, offering subsidies for buildings with shock absorbing dampers.

the money for this kind of technology isn't available in a stumble. if you do perfect, 3 factors must be considered. le, pushing the likelihood an earthquake will strike leaks. second of all, the number of buildings and that's more neutral and the 3rd quality of the construction or how vulnerable the buildings are. so a hot spot, in other words, a place where damage could be particularly great to have these 3 factors ultimately . and we see that in istanbul, but also in cities like lima, kito or mexico city did come to, to mexico. the biggest challenge now in is stumble is limiting the potential damage of a mega earthquake. me. in the southwestern part of the city, the bucky co neighborhood is particularly at risk boost in egypt from the mag. the

foundation has worked here for 12 years, as a disaster prevention coordinator. she surveyed the area with was going to do a site molar. just give you the houses here, a very old its imperishable, pushed the change in rebuild. after the september quake, 2 buildings were evacuated. almost the facade showed significant crack goes by the way that the residents are renowned and up to date. every one of the buildings will be rebuilt, but the owners simply cannot agree on what to do with the other one. the if

a building is reported to the city is safe, it should be torn down on the lot, but there's not enough funding to build a new that's why unsafe buildings a still inhabited good study showing them a government only cares about prestige projects. it doesn't care about how people really live, but they should they did it from the it's not just about the quite the immediate awesome that would be terrible. gaskets are fine to be knighted by natural gas. go out of, there's an ation fuel tank and gasoline deposed. and yet there is still no precaution lacy problem. the fire could occur after a quite terrific assemble. young goodness, private money. we have no time to lose,

but our government in ankara prefers to plan an absurd new canal through is unbounded. we must immediately prepare for a wake, but they just aren't listening to us. at all, you know, as a major city in europe has grown quite as fast in recent decades. what is lacking however earthquake resistance to residential buildings. in recent years, the turkish government has repeatedly tightened building regulations. but the chamber of civil engineers is skeptical of the construction industry. it's chairman jamal group chair stress is that just because the building is new, doesn't mean it stay from earthquakes about it's a major, so point energy was fine, and then the steady retry. let review

a lot until very recently the inspectors were chosen and paid by the builders themselves. part of their due and how independently can you inspect the person who's paying you at least since the 1st of january, 2019 inspectors anal selected through an electronic system. yet not, but even that does not suffice it to me up just because they're often not trained well enough for me. i don't have special certificates for a simple diploma or is enough to get the job. we have a serious problem with construction supervision in this country. yet maggie, apparently they did. the city is growing rapidly. as a result it is becoming more and more crowded. and the risks of the via consequences from an earthquake are increasing. she's getting sure that what the situation wherein right now it's a crime, isn't it? not can one really live in a city like this will not have

a government is lying. these open faces already show to the construction here. it can't go on like the city and it will not other form of the animal. meanwhile, the state disaster management, or, or c r find, is raising awareness about the risks posed by earthquakes. with an elaborately produced tv commercial. ah, the, the message prepared to dissolve, the said that your neighborhood stays safe. how's it going about this? however, you know, specified instead the source he promises educational campaigns. oh, the reality on the assembled street is not as the delay as the commercial. in actuality there are constant traffic jams and more and more high rise buildings.

the new city government knows this all too well. it is seeking solutions and has invited german sized ologist. marco boone half to is dumble. the scientists from all over the world are joined by local rescue teams and associations to discuss the current situation. food health delivers the opening speech assign of how much his work is appreciated . the current knowledge of the mama hold indicates a maximum expected earthquake magnitude of $7.00. of course, this would not exclude a larger event as we have learned to dramatically in japan in 2011, but based on historical data, this is probably a solid measure store over the years. boone, how from team has worked with turkeys. disaster management will start to set up 7 measuring station in the mama region $1.00 and $1.00 for station both quake safety

is the top priority for the city, new math chrome. my mom. he is in close discussion with bone half and other international scientists. their research will be incorporated into the new earthquake roadmap for assemble all young. i'm convinced that this is an issue that the whole world must solve together. the buck stumbled, the nails again, the children, dip them on both the biggest problem when it comes to worth quake is the safety of its buildings. nearly 50000 buildings are at risk. even a mild quake can damage it. live in a up, put them at this poses a huge threat to the lives of tens of thousands of people mentioned in an the shuttle. the answer is not only to demolish houses and build new ones thought if perhaps to strengthen existing buildings as well. that will be not learning richland, we must use this time very wisely defined, quick and practical solution. so we can save people's lives in some that and john,

and of course typically the engineer goodner is also committed to finding solutions . but it's not working on predicting if an earthquake will strike days or hours ahead of time. he's focused on the 2nd before the quake. the malta, we developed an early warning mobile app that alerted uses about the earthquake and remember to start in spite of the customers. and so we proven the app works. i'm now here to get support for it from the city control system in the us, unless you can get it on this deal with jim. i paid goodness appointment with put off until a later date. the, the theory of quake has been propelling him forward for years. the stumble doesn't have an early warning system like the one in tokyo or mexico city. so i took,

took matters into his own hands and developed a mobile app in 2017. and it's designed to send a warning signal to people in the stumble area, a few seconds before a major quake the app can be purchased for the equivalent of around 2 heroes a year. so far, goodner has set up 6 measuring stations in the mama region using his own son. today he is monitoring his station in the beauty mentioned district the sensor registers tiny tremors, 3 me to think in the event of an earthquake, it measures the less powerful primary waves of the quake. it sends a signal to appease this 5 to 25 seconds before the stronger and more destructive,

secondary wave. ah, the warning time increases the further you are from the earthquakes api center. i'm trying to be spotted. the system has proven itself all along, but the thing is only one station per location. there's a risk of false alarm. all the cost reasons. i've only set up one system at the start, but it would be better to add one or even 2 stations every 3 kilometers and set up a whole network. but he doesn't have the sun for that. each new station costs about 25000 years. currently, about 5000 people have downloaded his mobile only a fraction in comparison to assemble 15000000 residence but good can i believe them what he's doing. every 2nd counts all on you to talk to

you in 10 seconds. you could take shelter with your children. if you're driving a car, you can pocket safely, you must, if you are about to go inside a building or drive through a tunnel, you decide against it on your lot of these. a 2nd that save lives, tonya, and i go to the seconds and not enough. the germans seismologists marco bone house. he wants to be able to warn the population hours before a quake. he is out on the sea of mama, i just don't know exactly where a folk don't fall below the surface could trigger the next big quake on the island is b could own horses, set up a measuring station to help with his forecast but the station is hardly sending any

signals at the moment. that's the problem. he goes, this is the largest island off the coast of his dunbar, and these are predetermine measurement aside because they're closer to the false sound. when they come the team is headed to the highest points of the island. a summit in the middle of a nature reserve me here seismographs were installed 300 meters deep into the earth and covered with concrete. using acoustic signal, they registered the smallest tremors that do not reach the surface. this way, even many earthquakes have recorded the depths of the site.

mcgrath plays a critical role. yes. first, we have to try to get beneath the surface because in a metropolitan area like ist on. but there's a lot of background noise from infrastructure wind and whether that's bad for us because we want to measure the signals as cleanly as possible. and that's why we have to go deep below the surface. but drilling deep down is expensive and we have to drill at least a few 100 meters. so in this case, the compromise between the cost of drilling and leading our requirements is 300 meters, deep meter construction around 300000 euros was financed by the gym and research center for g, a sciences. the turkey show 30 fat and international donors of the gym at sharell remembers how intensive the process was to send him to move on to the drilling. here took a total of 9 months on the ground is made from very hard stone message. so drilling into it was very difficult. last time it was also

a mammoth task to bring these huge machines to the island. and then the drill heads of the machine kept breaking all the. i think we had to replace 10 of them. the drilling company hated us by the end of it all. the data from the science mcgrath to center almost real time via the internet to the disaster management tool source, the funds in ankara and to pump them what the team is now figure out why the signals are failing to send a u. s. company manufacturers the senses, they are used in earthquake zones all over the world technician surgery, venezuela has come all the way from the us to help with maintenance. we have some problems with the station. seems like there's nothing to do data to the central station. so we try to figure out what the problem seems like, is there around the digitize or has like a ram inside when it gets full,

it will stop at position because it's how you design. because the science grafts are imbedded, deep underground. they cannot be swapped out, valensuela can only activate them by remote control because they didn't get here on the, this burn half 7, his colleagues impulse them to find out if the data has arrived from them. if we repaired the data locker, we know the data arrived in ankara and in 5 minutes will know if it arrived and puts down. but everything looks good with those mission accomplished, the data finally arrives impulse. stem me. the meanwhile developed had found

a backer for his early warning system. a renowned stumble geologist wants to further develop his in charge of the professor gen keanta. rac wants to use cell phones to measure the shaking during an earthquake and compare it with the measurement data on site. something like this is not been done before. we want to combine these 2 functions in the problem until now. it's not being possible to measure how each building react to individuals during a quake, but with cell phones lying around the house, we could measure that set of homeowners in the law much good couldn't meet the geologist is stumble technical university. they discuss how the app could be used to estimate damage after a quake. what can a few years back, geologist chang, he attack who's also working on a warning system to predict earthquakes?

yeah, yeah. that's no longer his priority because he considers it dangerous. this act you ought to saw so that if i could predict now that in 30 hours there will be an earthquake bank a lot. how would they control the money in turkish banks? it's because it would flee abroad, but people would storm the bank. they would storm the stores if they would turn on each other, that bar there, sufficient security forces to prevent something like that. you know, is there a plan in place one, you know, there isn't, i mean, it didn't. therefore, even if there was a way to predict earthquakes, i mean, our society would not be set up for it, because then you would need to and a half square meters, face outside per person. that there is no space. and if dumble and we don't even have $75.00 square centimeters per person, maybe you just go to the city center. yeah, the booking the streets are 2 and a half meters wide. the houses 6 stories, high apartment. if one house collapses, the whole street is blocked by a fire breaks out in just one house. it spreads to all of them but the building,

the young chicks that because the guy you only a few months have passed since the last quake and assemble on the 24th of january 2020. another earthquake strikes turkey. this time in the eastern part of the country, the quake is almost 30 times stronger than the september quake in 2019. at least 90 building collapse and 41 people die in the region. the devices and rescue workers res, overnight temperatures, the minus 8 celsius emergency unit travel from assemble. the rescue work takes days. geophysicist marco bone half doesn't have much time left. unfortunately, that's exactly what research requires. but he does have new findings. the results

of the september quake, or in his thesis seems to be correct or i think it's under the see of mama, many, many quakes accumulated until the big quake with a 5.8 magnitude struck equals the question is whether these fractures of the 4 shots are signs of a larger her way with an app in research. his don't yet know if this is a pattern that can be applied to all quakes, but the indications that growing boon half estimates that it will take another one to 2 years to see if the method is proved, correct? yeah, no, only then will it be possible to develop a reliable, full costing system investment of hello best case scenario would

be to put out a sort of fever curve game where every day we could estimate it. there's a higher or lower risk of an earthquake residents. we start to adjust to this. it would be like what we see with forecasting extreme weather. this is not yet the case with earthquakes, and there's a long road ahead to get there. but this is what we're aiming for, and we're working to improve this situation into some of our best on the, in the people of a stumble. only have a real chance if priorities that earthquake resistance buildings. the public warning 2nd before a quake and a longer lead forecast. ah, the research is work remains of race again time. ah,

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oh, me the and above all how it feels. jewish life in europe. that's what film producer and journalist could moment are exploring. delving into history and the present. i would never think judaism could be live, so mostly i wanted to remind myself because i grew up in a completely different way. broad. it's florida jewish in europe. the 2 part documentary starts july 5th on d w. ah.

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