an economic recovery that's out of balance. that's the i am afternoon warning for china. wadley real estate sector falling consumption and a hard line against major tech companies. are all working against paging efforts to bring the pandemic under control. also on the show, germany and the you have big plans for renewables in the next decade. they aren't going to be cheap and french bakers or an uproar over bud get prices. they say a supermarket chain is under cutting their ability to sell hello. welcome to the show, i'm seeking beardsley in berlin. we begin in china where the international monetary fund has warned of an unbalanced recovery. the organization forecast, the world's 2nd largest economy will grow 4.8 percent this year. that's down from 8 point one percent. last year. the i'm of criticized beijing's regulatory crackdowns a gets tech giant saying such measures could scare off for an investment. the ailing real estate center is another concerned mentioned in the report. my speaking

of which beijing is considering breaking up the teetering real estate giant ever grant. that's according to a new report from bloomberg. the proposal said to come from officials in evergreen's, home profits of gong dong, calls for the developer to sell off most assets. the green light from aging would kick off a lengthy unwinding of the company and likely provoke a battle over which creditors get paid 1st. ever grant defaulted on death for the 1st time in december, and has asked its creditors for patients. as a works out a plan. frazer, how is a china analyst and an author? he joins me from singapore, fraser. thank you very much for joining us. i want to begin by talking about the current state of things in china. we look at the city of shown on, i believe it's about 1200000 people from reading it, right. it's been locked down completely because of china 0 cobit policy. what effect has that you recovered policy had on the local economy and then was it having the world economy? can we say yet?

well, we, we know how you are there. it's not good. and china now with a, i'm a are hugely problematic having knock on across the economy. confidence . and i think it's a watering sign for the chinese leadership going forward. that, you know, 6 months ago they failed. they were on top of that. they failed to run off the pandemic and the kids, you know, carry along quite happily. but now clearly things are very different. when asked about ever grand, you know, overseas creditors are becoming impatient with a company that threaten legal action. the company says, and he's month to come up with a plan. where is this all headed? i'm well, it's going badly. you know, the fault if it ever grand or something like $300000000000.00. that's in direct it to bonds, to foreigners, animation chinese. but also as

a huge number of suppliers with china. so you're talking about building companies, contractors, you know, toilet manufacturers, people who provide all your stuff that you wouldn't need. they've made commitments to them. they're built flat and they haven't paid them all the money for all investors and go buyers and build the sites. so it's all, it's going to take months and years are basically to solve everyone's problems. that the model it is fundamentally broken. and that is going to be a lot of the question, is that in a short term, or do you spread over multiple years? fraser? just how concerned should we be about the chinese economy right now? and how seriously are those concerns being taken by the leadership? i think the 2nd part 1st i think they're being taken very seriously, but at the same time you know that i am, it is still saying 4.8 percent growth. so again, many countries be happy with it. so again, i think you have to move away from this idea that china is on the laps what i think

the damage for sure and, and whatever grants about china, the china isn't a medical economy and it's going, there's a long slot to get out of these problems and especially with as long as it continues with cove it by then all that's doing is basically taking it, it's work time is just increasing and is going to be going to be with china for many years. or i, china analyst, fraser, how i thank you very much. well, speaking of economic transformation, germany's new government says 2022 marks the real beginning of its economy. climate transformation. and one of berlin's biggest priorities is producing more electricity from renewables. they should account for 80 percent of all tricity by 2030. in fact, that will come cheap and minerals like copper nichol, cobalt and lithium, are all key elements of renewables, from wind turbines, to solar panels and e car batteries. according to the international energy agency,

annual copper demand is expected to double in the next 20 years. demand for nickel will more than triple for co bought more than 6 times the current demand and lithium. don't even talk about it. a new german industry study says the search and demand will push prices up sharply by 2030. that of course, would make the energy transition more expensive and it was slow down the entire process. now for more of this, i'm joined by lucas burke. he led that new report by the german institute for economic research is also known as d. w. berlin lucas. thank you for joining us. what kind of price hikes are we talking about? yes, steven, thank you for the invite. so we did a study with 2 colleagues at the international monetary fund, andrea atoria sherman, we looked at like exactly this, a, what implications the energy transition might have on metal prices. and as you said, demand rises strongly and then supply is often slow to react, as it takes long times from humans to open up. and we see that prices over the next

years might actually reach peaks similar to historical highs, but for an unprecedented sustain period. so peaks could be reached around 2030 and a global net 0 emission scenario and only come down from this very gradually. so this would then make the transition more costly and potentially it is that a recent interview that these metals could assume something of the significance of oil in the economy. are there really no alternatives for them? right now? i'm so that's, that's a critical point. i mean, we could increase extraction and some points, like for example, teams deep sea mining, but it's still in its infancy. but then when we need substitution, that's very hard. so for example, concerning batteries or different types that use to different extents, um codes and nickel for example. and we could exchange one type of battery for

another one. when prices hike the same time, the switches often come about with, with also our more expensive or lower energy efficiency unconcerned. copper we could probably increase on the use of aluminum and electricity grits. august, august is, are very limited. to what extent have governments actually factored in the costs right now a lot of them are making these very ambitious net 0 plans are the prices of these metals being factored in? i think that's happening still too slowly. so we need really more of these net 0 pledges both by countries and by firms because those can really increase certainty for matter produce us, which is the most important point here. i think. so think for example of a net 0 pledge by i can commit to long term purchase agreement

with metal producers and give them more certainty. and this really, really important and that governments could do a lot more. so for example, better markets and not very transparent and increase in transparency, better forecasts on supply and demand could player a major role here. and government, for example, set up an international agency for naturally think of an analog to the international energy agency for energy here in this case, that there are a lot of steps taken by governments want to leave it there. lucas fur with the german institute for economic research. thank you very much. thank you, steven. let's go to some of the other global business storage, making headlines. ah, china unit. com is lashing out of the u. s. f. c. c, saying a recent order to ban the company from operating in the u. s. has quote, no justifiable grounds on thursday. us revoked. authorization for the for chinese

unit come americas and ordered an end to domestic interstate and international telecom services. within 60 days, mcdonald's in malaysia has stopped selling large portions of fries due to supply chain problems. only small portions remain on the menu until 4 further notice. similar shortages were experienced recently in japan, mcdonalds also how to the sales of large fries. december, apple posted record sales and holiday quarter. the tech giant reporting almost $124000000000.00 in revenue as it benefited from high i phone sales and asia, especially in china. for 2022, the company expects more revenue growth despite significant supply constraints or bred prices are serious business in france. rising cost were said to be $1.00 of the factors, fueling the french revolution of $1789.00. now bread is, again, causing an uproar, though perhaps not the same dimensions. for a supermarket. chain laclare has lower the price of their began to $0.29. the

company says it wants to help french who are struggling with the loss of purchasing power. but independent baker's fear could make their lives even more complicated. here's a report from paris i guess our best seller in this bakery and new than paris . that at one year or 20, they now cost $4.00 times as much as le clerk's super cheap french loaves. that has this baker, worried about the future slacken comes in. why? yes, this is unfair competition. we can't compete with the price of $0.29. we already had to reduce our profit margin because of the rising flower prices. and we need to be able to pay our wages and production costs. since the start of the coven 19 pandemic, her turnover has slumped at times by up to 50 percent. but she says the crisis has also shown wides important. that local bakeries don't get crowded out by

supermarkets, and that's the wrong, we're not in a gap. we local bakers don't only sell bread. we are also a crucial part of parisian life that became all the more obvious during the locked dance when our customers came to see us to have some human contact. law clerk denies the chief prices are unfair competition. they say they've lowered their own profit margin to help destitute families. the company declined our request for an interview. their policy is already pleasing some of their customers who tribble just to this is really good news, especially for those that are struggling to make ends meet founder to give to his my beget this is great. i can do all my shopping and one go through this economist says the company chose the right time for the price move, but for it to be a real success, one condition needs to be met. lower your scene of inflation has risen to 2.8

percent compared to 0.5 percent 2 years ago. and food prices have gone up by 30 percent. but the french are food lovers and will only buy the supermarket. cheap begets, if they're pleasing to their palate, also back at the bakery local klein's have already made up their minds. and if it, this has been our bakery for years and will keep coming here in february and here we know where the products come from. supermarkets shouldn't be allowed to do this . we should go protests against that. she prices, in any case, this baker will continue to try to convince her customers with the quality of forgets, instead of that price. that's it for me. and the dw business team will be back in a few hours of more check us out online, dot com slash biz. ah,

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