saved up like he said, germany is one of the countries that says that it wants to keep this sort of in the armory for use later on. but what sort of a situation would it take for this actually to happen? and this is very hard to answer from you. so i think the in house being massive up to now and it seems that this is jason has also not been expected in the way it's happened before. so i would think that an exclusion of swift would be appropriate as the sanction. but it has not been decided maybe because it has not been prepared sufficiently up to now. right. but there are a member states that are pushing for a poland. for example, latvia, countries that feel a lot more under threat from russia. i want to talk about actually the impact of what's happening in ukraine for ordinary europeans. it's

a continent that's already struggling with inflation and energy crunch. are those things that are going to get worse? because of what's happening and you cry yeah, the gas prices are currently at a very high level and the situation is not expected to ease in the short term, especially if the gas supply from russia is decreasing. now, due to the crisis, it is not clear whether this would happen and at what time this, this could happen. however, wholesale prices will gradually passed on to consumers and gas. prices are very high. the pass on to consumers is slow because many of them have long term contracts, but for the price increases are to be expected for further process products. for example, the price increases will spread to fertilizer and then also to food. so the inflation is likely to remain high this year, and we should see at least

a 4 before the decimal point for 2022. and this makes of course, 2nd round effect the weight price or more likely and put a lot of pressure at the be in the situation that is very complicated in europe at the moment. ok, ranika graham from the german council of economic experts. thank you so much. for bringing us your insights. thank you. and i'm now joined in the studio by cassandra some from dw business. cassandra just been hearing about the sanctions that are coming rushes way and could be coming rushes way as must have been preparing for a moment like this. yes, they have part of the problem here is that this was 1st dangled as an option. this idea that russia could be kicked out of the switch banking system back in 2014, when russia annexed crimea. so at the time russia responded in a typically bombastic fashion, saying that kicking it out of the switch system would be the equivalent of an

declaration of war. so the time western allies put it on the back burner. that was in 2014, over 7 years ago. russia has had time to build up what many are calling a fortress economy? they've div dollar ised massively 20 years ago. 80 percent of their liabilities were in dollars. now it's less than 50 percent. they've built up gold reserves and $643000000000.00 in currency reserved reserves, and they have one of the lowest debt to g d p ratios in the entire world. so these are all a result of a careful plan that putin has been, president putin has been putting in place since the annexation of kyra crimea in 2014. but nevertheless, this would have a big impact on how russia could deal with the rest of the world. if it was be kicked out of swift, so i'm mobile, richard, or if it is. yeah, we only have one example really of the u. s. successfully getting a country kicked out of swift. that would be iran. so there's not a lot of historical data to go off of,

and we are reading the tea leaves. but there are some fears being floated around that if russia is kicked out, it would undermine the swift system as a whole and encourage the development of alternatives. russia does have its own system, s p f s, but currently it's really only used by russian banks. china launched its own system in 2015, but that's really still under development. it's called the cross border international payment system and it's only used by about $80.00 foreign banks. but in principle, there's reason it can't be used as a substitute for swift. and believe it or not, there are still some pre swift tools that russia could use russian financial institutions could use like the telephone and telex. and nowadays you could use email as a secure business, a bank to bank a secure messaging system. these are all tools at russia's disposal. so while removing russia from the swift system would be cutting it off from a key highway of global finance. there are other backroads that he could use that

even if they are a little slower and bumpier. of course, the west would have less control over whatever alternative russia sold out. ok, so awesome. thanks for bringing this up today. now the recent developments in ukraine and especially the sanctions levied against russia have had an impact on markets after steep drops on thursday. stock markets rebounded on friday, even as russia preston attacks and global can. that condemnation grew, the nika was 2 percent in europe. the german tax and the foot see in london rose to present in early trading. this global uptake follows a surprise rally on wall street as well after investors found the latest sanctions to be less harsh than have actually been expected. and once more, here are some of the immediate economic fallout from the recent developments in ukraine. chip makers expect only limited supply chain disruptions caused by the

russian invasion of ukraine. thanks to stockpiling, however, that could be an impact further down the road. as ukraine supplies more than 90 percent of semiconductor, great knee on the gas is critical for the lasers used in jet . and jamaica rolls royce, in san fran say they have been ramping up supplies of titanium, which of which is supplied normally by russia. the use of to attorney him has stored in recent years is playing makers try to make jets lighter companies. so they're also looking to diversify their sources. and the global airline industry is re evaluating routes and supply lines is ukraine's ass based, closes japan airlines council flights to moscow and britain as close as space to russian airlines including aero slot industry. analysts say carriers should have contingency plans in place, in case russia, russian as space is hit by st. ah,

and i was rob. but what's that? so bring you up to date with the latest developments from today, russian forces are pressing closer to ukraine's capital. have on day 2 of a full scale invasion. the mess as the city has entered, the defense phase and ukrainian military vehicles are entering the capital to protect it from approaching troops. o. o cyrus have been sounding a t f and other cities, prompting people to take shelter in metro stations. i've also been reports of clashes in and around here, after bombarded the city with missiles overnight, ukraine's government says at least $137.00 of it, soldiers and civilians have been killed. of russian president vladimir putin claims he's willing to negotiate. after you cranes for a lot of minutes landscape, raise the possibility of a neutral status feel crane. what conditions as talks have not been made clear.

that's joint d, w corresponding nick connelly on the line. he was in care of and like so many others has been forced to flee a welcome. nick, can you tell us where you are and what is going on? so we've just been heading south west, some trying to keep away some like to do that kind of unclear functioning, the geography kind of wanted to try to predict where things that happened basically just shows the direction that seem to be the least likely. so fighting, so we're heading to do which is gonna pull towards the end. but even though we've seen lots of tanks in tanks, heading towards kids to join that fight, we've seen worse and claims and lots people on the roads, lines outside dental stations, people trying to reach that college and checkpoints doing up. you can kind of see that kind of sometimes being piled up each other and because you're really in flux,

the kind of local speech services we are just in the 1st hours. and there's trying to kind of get a grip on where they're going to be, where i'm so i'm people who stayed in the capital, they just hoping for the best or preparing for an actual invasion is no longer an impossibility. i mean, most people have to divide maybe stages. you have to move to send it to the suburbs to maybe we can have it somewhere anywhere away from obvious targets like buildings or translations picks here. but we'll try and talk to the basically the central central point of ukrainian ministration. places well being time from there you can office building smoke because it's because trying to move 1st and then again facing other nights in shelters or in metro station like they have

missed a already was kind of terrifying. the sorry 1st on well being where the is coming from, where are you coming from? seeing the damage to really pulling yesterday. i was also giving you a very soft movie situation. one which i guess for the weeks this is good. but anyway, we expect the funding and presidents and i'm still in the country. how dangerous is the situation for him? so he says that he believes that he is target number one. the goal discretion is to take cases, likes to, to configure, and then gotta play that would be because he and for us you can install return kind of pocket to ship its own money,

its own favorites to bleed ukraine and to then agree some kind of deal that's have the claim coming down to mercer and not just not in a neutral but also fall close in terms of iteration to our so to say, but right now done to the foreman civic countries. so that the real world question rhetoric and most as they began this year today and told me about demilitarize d, notifying ukraine by the best i see, to kind of damage to my craving some kind of not few states without even bothering to actually explain what, how they see that why they would explain that just to kind of claim that turn out to try and clean something justification for this preliminary last time. and we're not super, i'm not going up on the street and asking why they're doing this. it seems to be paying this country was rushing for me. it's supposed to say that without

making the case, since it seems why this is an option and a lot of people are leaving not just the cities, but the country as well. one of the main routes out now the main route, straight west, out of towards leave, which is the still in the public folder. but basically today the, some of the main roads leading west was fighting, fighting forces potential even worse and tanks. and you know me just within about 15 kilometers about may all 3 leading out and give me some people out about very, very no traffic jams, people stop crowding time. so you can imagine being being stuck in traffic and basically parked in the mood to a knowing the shooting, even type firing company, then no matter what you will not be able to move it right. because you actually had lots people trying to travel further away from that fighting for the south in

terrain. pretty difficult with roads going in the between villages. but we've just been, it's been a few hours, but the just about to come out between villages is endless. endless line vehicles old trying to find a way out. now people are leaving that come, i've been pretty struck given that have difficulties and even find fuel level and know where to go and how to get people panic or wait or push ahead and cues. profession federal kind of severity and they're gonna say some people in some way keeping calm and dealing with the situation or if they can. thank you so much for letting us know what's going on. do try and stay safe. thank you for an economy and can and just outside. yeah, i should say this. russian military besieged the a cranium capital. moscow has said that it will topple the ukrainian government the

merit. chavez announced that the defense of the city has begun. thousands of civilians have fled that those who remain ob bryce for a violent confrontation. oh, oh, another terrifying started a day in keith. overnight there was more destruction. bombs rained down, forcing residents to flee to safety in bunkers, metro stations and sellers packed with residence, grappling to come to terms with their new reality. russia area. it's hard, but i'm holding on the waiting for a nearby house court fire and there were many victims. and we were waiting until 7 o'clock in the morning in our apartment, in the car door in the bathroom until the end of curfew. vocal so that we could come here. i work hair yet the person should who's to oh,

i feel mostly tired and anxious. nathan dealer, it was so strange. so none of the fields really? yeah. i don't even know how to relate to it. oh my goodness. if you will give them what we see above them, soldiers on the streets of central keith and reports of gunfire near the government district and on the edge of the capital, an enemy aircraft, the ukrainian army claims they shot down. meanwhile, ukraine's president sent a message to russia. oh, she is filled law. the bitter around each of these russia will have to talk to a sooner or later. yes, you talk about how to end the fighting and stop this invasion that for the sooner the conversation begins was walla, with the fewer losses there will be for russia itself. the lab is some way that i

see. but in moscow repeated unfounded claims from the kremlin.