ah, t i with this is revealed an unprecedented story with theory no more than life, much of the great documentary series iraq destruction of a nation starts march 4th on d. w. rushes . invasion of ukraine is entering a new phase. it's being described as phase b. and look, set to be even more brutal than what went before. the central russian target still appears to be the capture of the ukrainian capital k f, but ukrainian forces opposing up a bitter fight that president followed him as a lensky says he expects further strikes on residential and government. air is designed to lead to mass panic, more civilian casualties, and the destruction of infrastructure. so on to the point, we ask ukraine,

fighting for survival has rushes dirty war only just begun with . well, thanks very much for joining us here on the show where my guests are julia free. durish, who is with the global public policy institute here in berlin, gustav garrison from the european council on foreign relations. and saggy medford have from another billing based organization called the december and n g o promoting human rights in russia and east and europe. thank you very, very much. all 3 of you for being here with me today. and i thought, speaking with you earlier, there's a lot to talk about, so let's do it a not till until very, really recently, you actually lived in kiff, can you for us evoke the moved in the city at this point in time?

well, at this point in time, i can't really say from a personal experience because i left about 3 weeks ago. so before this all started, before i would say the mood was very tense already, but people kind of trying to go on with their lives. and i think now with people spending night after night and i must come interest in them or him, the key of metro station looking for shelter. i think the mood has, has deteriorated quite a lot. still the ukrainians that i am in touch with are remarkably resilient and trying to keep their head type. there is a sense that the initial determination and now really a much greater fear and trepidation among people. i wouldn't necessarily say that i think it's normal to be afraid to when your city is being bombed, i think that doesn't mean that there's less determination necessarily. ok, circa mode filter for vivid impressions. there from julia, on the current mood in the current in city care. if you come from you, you were born in moscow. tell us about the move in moscow. at the moment. russia is

obviously an aggressor and there are no bomb been russian cities in the moment. by the panic is coming to russia to and so in the last days i had phone calls with journalists and just sort of friends and they don't know what to do. and some people are like buying tickets for any directions to do by to, to billy. see to central, easier just to escape because they don't know what the com or the measures can come to them. and especially how journalists can be sanctioned if they call war as a war. and if they are struggling, give a sense of sheep. so their situation in the society, even like in those loyal russians, is changing. and we can see the situation to 3 weeks, probably completely different. what we heard like a couple of those. and to what extent of people in russia been blindfolded by vladimir putin or, or have say, been,

has gone into this situation that they find themselves with their eyes wide open as it pertains war? or is it the russian peoples war? yeah, firstly, like russian society split and there are a lot of democrats and critical russians who said already 10 years ago, after the 1st mass protest, putin, regime is illegal election frauds, mass human rights violations, and repression. again, still to be to people against a position leaders and so on and so forth. but to what we saw 2014 and what we see now. of course, in other extent, and as the 1st her dad people are arriving russia now in the next days, even like, loyal people will have to think what's going on in, do they really need this war? do they really need this regime? what will happen then?

yeah, this is a good question because i mean the situation is changing from day to day and it's hard to predict now, but their prices will or will rise and the inflation will rise. and i can imagine that the situation, economic and social situation can look bit the same. what we have in the 90s, in this wild ninety's, how put in call them. and he's propaganda in the last 20 years. ok. that's bringing, bringing ghost of crystal from the european council on foreign relations, where you spend a lot of time, i imagine thinking about peace almost as an abstract quantity. you are however, a military man. he served in austria's army for 5 years. i believe. what, what are your impressions of what's going on at the moment as a military, somebody with the military background? well, the russian army switching gear, they trying to achieve a quick, quick 3. they were made to believe that this would be a flower campaign. other basically would be welcomed by the population. they took

few ammunition with them. they were not organized in their usual combo teams. they just rushed in as fast as i can. and them at stiff resistance. and i was surprised that actually they would meet war. now they're regrouping very organizing. they're bringing a lot of ammunition to supply a brutal, especially around the cities, to use tillery to use all the fire power that there is to break the resistance of the defenders and to break the will of the population to defend, to, to support the defending effort. we also have a bad situation the south russia tries to, or has gained a full told on the other side of the river. or we will see how this, how this unfold. nevertheless, the war has, has exposed a lot of weaknesses in the russian on forces, especially in the leadership. a lot of tactical mistakes, a lot of bad behavior in terms of how they operate as a professional military. and he has confirmed everybody who's saying that never on

the estimate the ukrainians have learned a lot since 2014. that is a common proven army. and they are very much determined to fight for their survival of the country. ok, since the annexation of crimea in 2014, it's already been mentioned. nato has been beeping up its capacities on the eastern flank. and now the onslaught on ukraine has led to a new era in the west defense strategy. we have this short report. in recent years, nato had already reorganized combat units in the eastern member countries and scandinavian joint maneuvers in the region were also stepped up. in recent weeks, the number of troops has been further posted and ukraine, which is not a nato member, is getting weapons from various countries. a new development is that for the 1st time in its history, the european union has approved a monetary fund to provide military support to ukraine. to know that these have

a 1000000 viewed as will be devoted to provide defensive arms. but i calibrate arms. anti thanks, all kinds of agreements in order to re failed degradation. germany has also made a dramatic about face in its strategy, releasing arms shipments to a war zone. in addition, the bonus fare, germany's armed forces is to be better equipped over the next few years, with $100000000000.00 euros in additional funding. furthermore, the 2 percent target for defense spending, which the u. s. has long demanded in bain is to be implemented this year? is a new arms race blooming is a do i'm sure i assuming already, i mean a saga you live here in berlin and in the last few days we've had this decision by germany, by the you to send weapons to ukraine. how important is that?

i think it's important. pardon? i think it's very important too because ukraine is a poor country and it needs support from all the sites. also with their defensive weapons and a futon declared the war against ukraine. but actually he also declared the 2nd cold war against their so called western world. and he, as we know from the last 20 years, he will not stop in ukraine. this is not the 1st war and to europe and the world has to do everything in order that it is the like, the last we will stop in ukraine. what will then happen next? i mean, there are several and they were countries, former soviet republics. and i can do like, are focused in the moment, but we saw a war in georgia to solve 8 in the ninety's. there was war insurance, nice trio. and i'm, i mean there are a lot of so called frozen conflict. and so we have bella, luce,

the situation with a dictator, lucas anchor there, and it's also the situation has to be solved somehow. and we don't know if it will be peacefully or not. so if you share that impression, that this is the 1st domino falling and there will be many other dominoes after that i opposite of these contacts and i want to pay even a more to me a picture. we see now a total war on the, on the screenings, and the game is the destruction of the ukrainian nation as a political entity, as a social, historical entity. it will come with enormous repression because as we seen with on, on civilians getting in front of tanks, you will not make the ukrainians to accept what ever put before them without brutal force. and that that requires the most repressive tactics we have seen in the 20th century so far. and you will have, you will,

you're not doing this to the d. n. our eleanor to isolate it or to, to small territories. you doing this to a huge country. the largest country in europe, and, and almost 40000000 people. this will involve a large amount of security personal from russia, if it happens, who will then be radicalized, brutalized involved systematically in war crimes. they will depend on to teams because otherwise they will face colton. cheese and they will transport their methods of repression to the russian people. and that they will make us responsible . because this is putin's mindset for every body resisting to him and his plans is a stooge of the ca. he will make us responsible for it. and he will use a demeanor he has employed so far, which is wireless repression and the threat of war to make us back off. okay, very uncomfortable, cold war, very strong and very distressing. military logic cooler. when you listen to that kind of logic, do you envisage the key f becoming a city?

that is, or whether is street, why street fighting house to house fighting and are a very high price in human suffering? well, i mean, i think this depends on a lot of factors that we can't accurately predict just now. i think we will, we will have to wait and see a little bit how this goes on. but and i would, i don't think that the ukrainians would surrender easily. so that is why there is a scenario that i think is that can potentially happen. and that might even be likely, which of course, we'll have a tremendous human cost, but i don't see a ukrainian surrendering their capital any thompson or a very important figure, obviously in this unfolding tra, tragedy is so ukranian, president, or follow to be a so lensky, he has been talking about what he and his country men and country women are fighting for. this is what he said. we are fighting for our rights,

freedom and wife. and now we are fighting for survival. and this is our main motivation. but we are also fighting to be equal members of europe. he will be fighting to be equal members of european should ukraine get trust truck, you membership on a moral level, i would say, or an intuitive level. i would say yes, it would only be fair on, on a practical level, to be honest, i doubt this makes much difference at this point in time, because we know that even though the u has shown unprecedented speed in the last couple of days in making its foreign policy decisions and lodgement has been an issue for many, many years, decades even. and so i doubt they will come around this quickly and even if they do a membership and accession is a lengthy process that will take some time. and so that's why i'm not sure this

would weigh in any way on, on the way the war is going necessarily being talked about a lot here in germany and under lot in brussels. is it, is it or is it a move that could prove helpful in a middle or long term perspective definitely bought in the moment i cannot see any chance is how the country been bombed and to lay cur. the aggression of put in joining the european union as are members state bots, off to the war after this blog bath. we need to secure people, at least, and this means we're still on. i 2nd touch or even i, we, we are, we are facing also negotiations and we know the russian demands are even in the process of that. and i don't get me wrong. i'm not mr. written for. i'm not telling anybody will to concede and will to give up. but even if, if the ukrainians are forced to give up something, it's better to give up

a piece of paper than to give up a piece of your country. so even even if it does not materialize for whatever reason, we have built up a stock of arguments that mr. zalinski can use in negotiations with the russian counterparts. it took to get peace and to preserve sovereignty of his country to preserve ukraine by the ukrainians. decide what government to have and not the colonial power. you mentioned, presidents zalinski there. what would your estimation be of his role that he has played this jewel role is a national leader and military lead with one of the same time he's playing probably the role of his life. now he, his prime goal is to mobilize international society to mobilize the entire country for, for their, for to come much of the fate of ukraine. now law is in the end of ordinary citizens . and especially, of course, the uniform that armed ones are. but he is doing in 1900 figure,

he's pulling at over 90 percent. and i think he does a very good job that oh, what would you say sorry about his before once? yeah, well he, he, he, he really has become, he's got it, he's got any fact i sort of are almost a fun club in the west in that, not only in the west, but then your grand and south to. i mean it's, he is like wearing presley if and what i hear also from my friends from harder keith and keith. i say that sir, it's like a new president. they became, or like a week ago and there are really, and she is like her motivating the whole nation to fight and not just surrender. okay. well, hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets in several european cities and countries in recent days to demonstrate against the onslaught ordered by vladimir poaching. and in russia itself. there have also been protest. we have the short report demonstrating in russia against hooton's policies and his war takes a lot of courage. the security forces are brutal against the demonstrators. nevertheless,

people like here in saint petersburg and in many other cities are taking to the streets. when i'm the one ukraine is not our war, it's not our warner, it's the war of our leadership. but not our war. starting this war was a very bad decision for our people, because many of them have relatives, friends, husbands, and they will die for nothing. with it's similar in moscow where this woman says that i feel sorry for those who suffer aren't here. who are there from each side. the economy will recover, but people can't be brought back. for years, critical voices in russia have been systematically suppressed opposition members imprisoned. the media brought into line. we'll resistance against hootin grow. mm. so okay,

what do you say will resistance against vladimir putin grow and how dangerous is it to be opposed of lighting they put in, in russia? it's quite dangerous if the war and the situation we have right now can continue for weeks and months. putting cannot afford this war forever, and the situation is already changing. and he cannot be impressed by the st protest because they're stealing along, not like in a large scale box we see already is please of the elite. and the 1st voice is already quite loud. that only guards cannot afford this war as well. dairy passed her, who is like a loyal oligarch said that i don't want to pay for this. why should i pay? teen cough and friedman, i also like one of the biggest, all you are saying like we don't want this war. and i can imagine that even the elite can pressure who teen or later and can make him to change his

mind your impression. ah, well, i mean, we've seen videos coming out of, of russia, of children being detained after protest yesterday. we saw footage of as the viber of leningrad see who was arrested for protesting against the war that was allegedly led under the under the much of the notification of ukraine. so we really see that the russian leadership is acting very ruthlessly. i don't share that. i guess optimism necessarily i'm very sorry to say because i, i think i put in the grip on power is very strong and it will only get a, i mean he will only hold on tighter now and i do think that we would have to see and we would have to see much more sort of much larger dynamic against the war for it to, to really have an impact on the rest of the leadership. hooton's group on power is very strong. we hear that. and so there are other sources of quarters who would say

that is very frustrated at this point in time because things haven't gone his way at all. oh, he is spots. he's switching gear now. they try with brute force what to happen to achieve with lightning rod evasion. i fear that ukraine, at least has to be stand this wave of attack, if not even another before putting. we'll try something else. i also share the pessimism that i don't think change will come from within because to police state that is in action now is very much entrenched. but there is a chance if, if the casualties are too high. and if the damage for russia is being a great power, and this is what this was about, he wants to establish russia as a great power the 21st century. if the deterioration through sanctions and through economic collapse is too harsh that this, this girl comes out of reach, then i think you might reconsider. we should remember stalling. he, he was not somebody who had

a high regard for human life and he gave up on the finland of the 40 days because it was too much damage for the soviet union as a great power to be embarrassed by not being able to conquer finland quickly, and, and the same applies to ukraine. now, however, of course, we are in the 21st century and, and warfare is a bit different that the terrain is different. so, so we shouldn't sort of draw direct pile lines. but this gives us roughly on idea of where things have to go. so what's, what's your take on what the, what, let me put in moody's at this point in time. we have spent a lot of time sort of wondering about what's going on inside his head. but it's, it is important to try and work work out where he might be leading the situation where he might be driving the situation. i think no one else was in the head of 14, like since months at least or even years. and i can imagine that he has different scenario and he, he doesn't plan to have this for,

for like several weeks. and i think there are talks every day with his security council and he's like, loyal c o v key people and they're discussing what to do. and also they're taking a look at the economical situation. all the sanctions which are very painful for, for russia and for putin. so i think we can see some changes in 2 or 3 weeks. and you'll hear what one thing that fascinates me is a distance and something that you will know much, much more about his war. what has happened to the purported friendship between you cray, dns and russians? what is the situation there now? and will future of these 2 countries got his neighbors to each other? well, i think that's a question that well, the answer to this, we will only see in the, in the, in the long run. i don't,

i don't think that ukrainians will forgive russia or russians very easily for this . at the same time, i do think that there is an understanding within the population that this is the government's doing and not necessarily the people doing. and you have to understand that for 8 years, people have already, i mean there were lots of family ties even know that already had to withstand sort of the annexation of crimea, the intervention of russia and that on boss. so i think people, i used to a certain degree to apply some pragmatism in the personal relationships as well, and sort of put certain issues aside. and not sure if they can keep this up though . now that russia has fallen invaded ukraine. so i think that this will be ones that won't heal for many decades. go. so you've given a lot of thought to strategy where the, where this is the, the, what do you think is going to happen in the next week or so now i feel we see a new, a much more brutal phase of this ball is also has turns into

a wall logistics for both sides, or we know much about the russian side, but also ukraine is desperately needing re supply dis, russian tanks didn't blow them so. so our discourse i mission, are there, the ukraine an air force is on the great struggle. they have put up an enormous prey fight, so fall under half exceeded all expectations, but of course they are running to the end of their resources. are they desperately need help or from the west? the desperately need our help. now, as i said before, the consequences of ukraine falling or will be, will be reasonable and will be tough for all of europe. so it's our, it's our own self interest to make them we stand and stop this imperialism as early as possible. and without our hope that they will survive a for another week, and then we'll see of what, while he's now negotiated and brother put in,

will agree to, to, to one of the many ideas for compromise that there are but, but i fear that her dad, he has not yet seen enough casualties to, to allow for his war aims or to change. so okay. a final word from you perhaps on giving us some sort of comforts at the time to come. what, where can you, where can you see this situation leading that isn't leading towards violence and atrocity, a short answer place? it's hard question and i hope it's leading in the long term perspective to the end of the soviet regime of booting and lucas. and we also need to talk now to the democratic and to the democrats in the country and russian biller was and of course abroad. absolutely. okay, thank you very much. all 3 of you for being here. we have to leave you there for now. bye bye. and just with

ah, with

into the conflict zone with tips of asked in russia's, president putin has reminded the world of his massive nuclear arsenal by placing it on the higher level is the nato alliance of credible determine how real. this is a 3rd world war generals to richard sheriff, former deputy supreme commando of the nato alliance, and my guest this week from london, a conflict zone you in 30 minutes on t w, the war and ukraine,

many se they'll resist for as long as possible. hundreds of thousands our fleet, the finding. what does it feel like to leave everything behind how our neighboring nations coping with the wave of refugees? and how do russians actually view hooton's war? focus on europe. in a t w. o. or driven by merciless reed and others are facing the destruction organic. when the invaders came to present that they should have done the make sense to do think it for a moment is trying to destroy the indigenous b with a large scale burning with land grammars are exploiting. b, amazon rain,

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how climate change and environmental conservation is taking shape around the world and how we can all make a difference. knowledge grows through sharing. download it now for free. ah, this is day w news, and these are our top stories. representatives of ukraine and russia have agreed to create humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians in a 2nd round of talks in delivers. the 2 sides also agreed to meet again. next week . that's as president put me in a meeting with his security council said rushes military operations in ukraine. we're going according to plan.