a policeman follow up with you. we are here is actually on fire made for mines. russia has stepped up its attacks across ukraine, the largest invasion for seen in europe since the 2nd world war. and if that's not serious enough, russia, president putin has reminded the world of his massive nuclear arsenal by placing it on higher alert. he will seek to apply maximum force. and if nuclear is part of that also, and he feels that the which it is and he feels it's going to give them an advantage . i've no doubt that he, we should be prepared for him to use it. that's general. so richard sheriff, former deputy supreme commando with the nato alliance and my guest this week from

london. it's impossible to predict how this conflict will develop. but it's clear so far that ukrainian resistance has been more effective than expected. and the russians appeared to have suffered substantial casualties. president lensky was given a standing ovation after he spoke to the european parliament problem bunker somewhere new crane. but what more can and should the west do to help him? is the nato alliance, a credible deterrent? and how real is the specter of the 3rd world war over that and much more on conflicts of a general coverage and sheriff, welcome to conflict. so you've called russia's invasion of ukraine, a real and present threat to the nato alliance. how worried are you? by putting waving his nuclear missiles under the west nose, very wired,

indeed. persian pertinent well saw nothing and we need to recognize the real threat . but those was carry. and the threat is what of a 3rd world war? if yes, i don't want to the longest about this and won't get us to stay cool and calculating . but the reality is this, if the person conquers ukraine, and although the ukrainian people and military are fighting an incredibly brave battle, and we should take inspiration of that all. but all the odds are in a stacked and perchance favor. so if there is, if he conquered ukraine, if he occupies you current, i think the chances are that he will have a very high chance that he will decide to have a go at establishing, for example, a land card all through lithuanian colleen and grab a bite off a chunk of the baltic states. and if there is any russian in caching whatsoever, international territory,

that means nato all 30 member states will be at war with russia. and his nature is war with russia. that means to nuclear pod, nuclear armed adversaries are locking horns and that must increase the risk of a nuclear exchange. i want to carry on talking about the nuclear problem in a moment. but you mentioned the baltic states of a in any way adequately defended by nita. i have to say that at the moment, given the overwhelming strength, but the russians have got i would be very surprised if they are. what nature has in place of the home for battle groups round about a 1000 times. now in each, in each of the 3 baltic states and eastern poland. i know that has been some reinforcement of those. but i think the vast far it's been very much of trickle. i would also, but the nation response falls we've heard has been dispatched to, to,

to reinforce. but that will take time. and i mean, from my, my personal perspective, from a professional military perspective, in order to adequately defend the baltic states, nation needs to have several alma divisions in those states together with all the maritime civil assets necessary to fight a major wall. and doesn't, i think we're probably a long way short of that. what do you put that down to? why? why are these reinforcements taking so long? what's, what's nature waiting for? from your experience as deputy supreme commander on next or next directory. wrong nato is a great, a great, a lots, it's a great institution and it's been the most successful a lot while the scene for some, some of the yes, but it has to match. but it is a consensus organization that has to move at the speed of a slight shift in the con boy and decisions take time to be made. i wish it wrong wise is the whole issue of a science of war. the science of readiness, the reading,

the preparation and movement of significantly large numbers is the text immense amount of time, an immense amount of a distant effort. and also we have to recognize that nicer than they said, the armed forces of nature, particularly in europe, have been wet all done effective reduction effectively at the form of disarmament. that has reduced armored divisions to brigades or light brigades and cut in substantial numbers. great swathes of the sort of military capability, which we need not to put in for any further adventure. you wrote recently that russia integrates nuclear thinking into every aspect of its military doctrine. what are the implications of that? does it mean that the russian military is taught to accept more readily the

possibility of using nuclear weapons? absolutely, absolutely. and the use of life for 1st use, in other words, it's actually license to 1st use and not only that, but what we, what we could expect to see if the person decides to have a got a voltage states of bytes of a chunk of them all of them and nato would be gearing up to attack to recapture them, which would, in itself be a massive military undertaking. larger than anything, frankly, we've seen since d day 944. and at that point, we could expect russia to threaten nicer with nuclear weapons. he's got put in, got nuclear tip to scan the muscles and colleen grad. well, within range of nature, cities like berlin, frank flips copenhagen stocker, albeit a wide city. and that would be a form of blackmail. forget to make nature is stopped in its tracks or accept the

reality of nuclear exchange. as far as you know, are there any constraints on putin's ability to launch nuclear missiles? can he do it by himself without reference to anyone else? do we, do? we have any idea of how his command structure works? every, all the power for the release is in pritchens hands. i remember the words of the victory pest golf. i think one of his spokesmen saying that the decision for nuclear weapons, for nuclear nuclear attack would be made by, by mr. pigeon himself, with the false support of the russian people. so the, the sort of politburo structure that existed in soviet times, which could have acted as a form of check and balance has gone. so effectively, he's got much more power than the old soviet leaders had eye off because he's being painted as a heavily armed, isolated and angry old man. and they don't necessarily make the best decisions or the most rational decisions do they? well, he is he so heavily on isolated in rational,

angry old mom. i'm getting older and you're absolutely right. which is why we have to be which is why we have to sit up and take notice and really be careful and really insure i'm going to send one out of all this is effective deterrent. so i cannot stress more strongly the need for, for later to get her itself up to mobilize, to be prepared, ultimately to fight a war of national survival. and that means armed forces on a scale, we have not seen since the, the most 10 days of the cold war with really significant forces capable and able to operate. so that's going to be relevant. it's going to be re constitutional forces . it's going to mean i'm gonna have implications on also saucers, in a way which we haven't seen for generations. the editor, one of the russian newspapers, nova, guys, yet dmitri more out of said pigeon was spinning a nuclear button around his finger. like some expensive car key chain does put in

strike you or someone who thinks. not only that he might wage a war nuclear war against the west, but that he could actually, when it do you see circumstances under which he could win. i think he thinks exactly that, ah, the circumstances in which he could win are circumstances in which deterrence has failed completely. so i come back to my argument about the importance of deterrence to preserve peace. such pieces exist where the piece for ukraine. but if we want to preserve peace and they so that means every european nation member, state of nation, of nature, needs to put it shows up. we'll dig deep and build up capability and get that capability to the, to the eastern flanks of. so as quickly as possible, i don't get a sense of the agency that's needed. i think on the whole it seems to be much very much life. as usual, less some token reinforcement. we've got to change that mindset fundamentally. how

far do you think putins nuclear threats reflect his frustrations with the performance so far? his forces in ukraine does he have justification for feeling frustrated. what they, what they've done or more what they haven't done in the 1st week or patient has no justification for thinking anything other than total object, shame and horror, what he, what he's perpetrated on the world. but of course you have made heavy weather, don't they? but there's no question they've made very heavy weather and it's about indicates to me as best as the pos is a minus. yeah. plus of course is that it's delaying the ultimate, i heard. right. not but i, i fair. it's saying what might be the inevitable in you correct? the minus is but he won't be frustrated. he will be angry, he'll be angry, or he will lash charge. he's already using a mass artillery indiscriminately inter in ukraine in cities like hawkins,

and very likely in care of as well. at some stage. he will, he will, he will seek to apply maximum full. so the nuclear as part of that also, and he feels that he which it is and he feels it's going to give him an advantage. i've no doubt that he, we should be prepared for him to use it. there are the most and confirmed ukrainian reports that speak of thousands of russian capital casualties. do you think that's true? to think they've taken heavy losses? i suspect they probably have, but at this stage it's very difficult to validate the photo war covers everything. the chances are that they probably have, i mean, any form of the sort of fighting that well with that is it, but it's happening in ukraine are, is fighting on a scale of a lot since it's seen in europe since the 2nd level, the clash of great armies of tanks and armored infantry, beckles, and gums. i as well as all the arrow tracks as well. and that is going to be

expensive in terms of council, just particularly when it gets into when those fighting and built up areas fighting in cities is very casualty. intensive, that's why it's all construct most isn't it? fighting in the city also does that like fight, day like war anyway? that's why we, we serve a soldiers in order to try and deter and prevent war. but if it comes to it fighting until top areas is bloody hard working hard work, expensive and casualty is and very, very slow. and it get the chances are that it will bob pushing done as, as he goes through those cities. whatever happens in the 1st few days of this invasion, russia presumably will take the major cities eventually. how hard will it be for them to hold them? well, i think that's a wider question on how hard will it be? i mean, the answer is that he will ultimately take the major cities. how hard would it be to hold them very hard indeed,

as it will be very hard to hold whatever ukraine box of ukraine pushing occupies less perhaps the the extreme eastern separatist areas of done. that's good. how can i say that? because i'm in know times that if and when the time comes, ukrainians will fight, will continue to fight the flame of resistance well, but very brightly. it will be supported by the west and by nature i have no dogs, and in fact preparations should be being made. now to put in place the necessary resistance support for resistance, it'll be a very, very expensive business. he will the ne, in order to hold the centers of ukraine and the why do you cry? he's going to need really significant numbers of soldiers. i saw rand corporation estimate around about 6 to 700000 while he hasn't got that. so i said that's going to result in a long drawn, i bloody insurgence. if a put in a form of, of the like of which i think,

i think i'm gonna saw him under the soviet attack. it's going to be a hell of a lot. was for the russians and it was for the service, general sheriff, when you, what passes through your mind when you see the beleaguered ukrainian resistance that some of them have been pushing back, rushing on vehicles with their hands cowering in bunkers, lining up to get a rifle that they've never used in their life and not knowing whether they'll live out the day and they want the kind of help, the west won't give them. they want closure of ukraine's ass base to russian aircraft. how does that make you feel? desperate on the one hand, every, every emotion inmate says we should be coming to help in a direct and aggressive and as a form providing our support. i'm particularly when you see the, the shots of the aquatic enrollment convoy bottled up and effectively packaged

ready for destruction. and not being hit by any form of ukrainian attack. but on the other hand, we have to think clearly we have to understand that any form imposing any form of no fly zone over ukraine is an act of war. it will involve nature, our craft shooting, dawn rushing across. it will require nature aircraft to attack and destroy russia, defense installations and radars on the ground. it will be an act of war, and it will mean that nature is at war with russia. a say want for this is if you are, if you are going to go for that sort of approach and impose a no fly zone, you have to be prepared to fight a war of national survival. you have to have ensured that the eastern flank of ne, so is absolutely solid and properly defended and you have to be prepared for the

sort of false levels required to fight on the ground and in the in ukraine. and i'm afraid to say that at the moment is simply out of the question, general chef. so, so the west saying it stands with ukraine. doesn't really represent the truth. it's an uncomfortable thought, isn't it? that if nato had given ukraine what it was demanding for years, that's a necessary nato membership. they probably wouldn't be in this position now, would they? well, again, the same a similar argument applies to nature. membership of ukraine recalls nature promise . you're actually right, nature promise, membership of ukraine, of nature to crank back up the progress so much in 2008 at some stage. however, one of the facts of life is you don't make a promise if you can't keep it. you know, over promise to over promise and under deliver is a fundamental mistake and that is the mistake. but nato has may, because if,

if your crime was spam, member of nature, nature would have had to have deployed sufficient defensive forces in ukraine to deter any rational attack. this would have needed, and they so force stationed permanently ukraine, back to the nature force at west germany, in the cold war. a force of 2 to 300000 soldiers together with all the equipment and paraphernalia of war. was nature ready? got to do that back in 2008, 910. i don't think there was a political johnson. hello that happy. so again, we come back to the point about if nato was to accept ukraine into the alarms, nato would need to be prepared, would have needed to been prepared to defend it, to the teeth with really significant armed forces. and that i prayed to say was never going to happen. you say that it, but in recent years, mister putin hasn't made much of a secret of his expansion. is james his desire to compensate as he calls it,

for the collapse of the soviet union, marching into georgia, for instance in 2008, crimea, 6 years later was a pretty powerful statement of his direction of travel and only got was a slap on the wrist, a few invitations withdrawn a few sanctions. the punishment didn't fit the crime. did it? if it had, do you think he could have been dissuaded from the poppies on now? i've no dodgy could have been yes. and if you read the forward to my, my book i talk about was ga rhineland and was, was, was, was cry now, today one moment. and i post the question, what will be our problem moment? there are real parallels with the 1900 thirty's. and if you think back, for example, in the british context of 2010, a significant reduction of the size of the armed forces, particularly the regular army, the dismantling of the army with division, we had 4 years later, you got to crime them. and at the time, i,

well remember the british politicians, when or shortly after actually try to 60 british politicians when, when, when challenged on whether there was a threat for russia saying, i do not know anybody who thinks like that, that was a degree of complacency and failure to really look at, put in listening to what the patient was saying and think through the implications you by the story that the west lost him at some point along the way. when he came to pod that was even talk of russia joining nato at some point. wasn't there even a as a friendly, fuzzy period between east and west, the west screw that up there are 2 sides for every story. i obviously right at one stage, i think 99 when he came to par, he said he wouldn't ru lot joining russia, russia joining nature. i don't necessarily buy the stories of the west lawston. i think i can remember. well, tony blair,

in good faith making saying that she thought, but when he came to power was a man with whom we could do business. now i think what you see is a man who has increasingly become corrupted by par, absolutely corrupted by palm. and who has decided that the return of the politics of on and blood to europe suits his intention. you've basically been describing for the last few minutes, an alliance, the nato alliance. that isn't fit for purpose. when you, when you look at the huge resources available to nato countries and the relatively meagre pot to the russia can access, how is it? but moscow seems to be calling the shots i off because you're off the defense experts have said they took, would it been hard put to win a war with russia? and now where, according to you, at least on a path that could take us to a war. how is that

ultimately, decisions about the size and shape and funding armed forces are made by our political leadership. not by not by the specialists. you have to carry a lot a lot, it's quite rice in a democracy, but it is the, and i civil power, the military. and the, the fundamental reason is that our political leadership, our electrons, have not been particularly in europe, especially in europe. because i think it's different in america or canada to the pen boss. gotcha. have not been for pad to invest adequately in defense. they have preferred to invest in social security and that you cation than others spending. because that's what gets them elected. defense has never been and electro issue in this. up until that last last decade to

decade, 3 decades. you've talked of the west needing to adapt now to a new reality. you said the world that we knew before, february 24th in which the rights of sovereign states to live in peace with guaranteed by a respect for international law without armed force. that's gone forever. how is the west supposed to behave in this bleak new world that you envisage while it's got to get rail? it's got fast, way to, to the imperative is deterrence. it's going 1st of all to muster than mobilize the capability to prevent any further incursions by, by pushing into, into any caution into the nature of torture. but it's got to think long term. it's got to recognize that we are in here in for the long haul. they're all going to be any quick fixes. there's not going to be any comfort it not. this is going to need in the very best case a significant they towed deterrents falls all away from poland to remain. yeah.

it'll dwarf the nature of the for the requirement of that nature face during the cold war for a significant force in west germany. this is a much, much longer commitment on a much bigger commitment. if we have the will for that well, we'll have to see where getting along with the president, the previous president didn't have much will like nato at all and it would probably be collapsed. and the, all right, this is, this is the 100, this is the $1000000.00 question. whether whether, whether you're actually right on the trunk. but who showed trump to demonstrate contempt for nature and contempt for his places, allies. and in a sense, case eat up to our potential adversaries. and when he comes back and if he wins the election in 2024, nate has been big trouble in it. while by that stage will know which way, which through the cookie has crumbled, but, but the bottom line with trump is that he breaks that fundamental trust that

whatever president occupies the why size. that was total certainty that america would come to the aid of a nature, a member of attract truck, trump, right? i think on the biden, where in a better place, i hope we are on the president biden. but again, i would like to see significant numbers of real war fighting capability being shipped across the atlantic. not. i see no signs of that at the moment. and we do need to see that, for example, in, in the cold war, the americans routinely redeployed armored divisions from, from america to john, a west germany. as part of reinforcement exercises the re for direction size is just to demonstrate the pay. could that need to start doing that again? not likely. airborne troops is not enough. you, as i said, painted this bleak picture, but haven't the incredibly brave selfless ukrainian vitals are battling against overwhelming odds, having by shown us a vision of

a much better future that could be, hadn't they, given nato some inspiration are unquestionably that they are inspiring beyond belief and to see, you know, the fact the way the ukrainians of her fort is extraordinary. but, but let's not kid ourselves, brave men and women with anti turn weapons and money off cocktails are not going to stop god's trying counties look at what look at the count, the convoy that we've all been looking at for satellite pictures all. where is the destruction of that? why has that? no. why have the ukraine has not been able to attack that worries me is the barrels is not capable to do capable enough to do it. and all they are unable to maneuver the necessary ahmed formations to do it. but that is a force, an enemy force which has been packaged for destruction and advantage cannot be taken or appears not to be taken. so that's what ready wirelessly general sir

richard sheriff, thank you very much for being on complex. so thank you. thank you. ah ah, ah, with

the war in ukraine many say they will resist for as long as possible. hundreds of thousands are fleeing the fighting. what does it feel like to leave everything behind how our neighboring nations coping with the wave of refugees? and how do russians actually view hooton's war? focus on europe in w and to the conflict zone with sebastian,

russia with president putin has remind the world of he's massey is nuclear arsenal by placing it on the higher left is the nato alliance. so credible to terms and how will this the spectra of a 3rd world war general to richard sheriff, former deputy supreme commando, benito alliance and my guest this week from london, conflicts own you have 90 minutes on a w a not just another day. so much is happening all at once. we take time to understand this is the day in depth look at current news, events analyzed by experts and critical thinkers. not just another new show. this is the weekdays on d, w. the power off

with where i come from. i never saw the sun. what have you gone up in brazil, the sun was always a man since the points of his word for son is masculine. when i moved to jam, when he has a 10 year old, i watch the cartoon on tv that was changed. how i see the world. because in german with 5 feet now, but the sight of a girl is solar, sorry, the pony tail. instead of a deep voice, extra learned of the guy seemed absolutely incredible. i realized how language shape, thinking, how definitions i'm not only mental images are a whole perception of the world dis inside to save my life and was one of the reasons i became a journalist. i'm a storyteller, and i use my words to help with intercultural understanding. my name is elena quailey and i work at 2

o. ah, this is the w news live from berlin, a fire at europe's largest nuclear plant. these effort asia, nuclear, nuclear power plant was attacked by russian forces. he went to nuclear agents, he has warned of severe danger if the plant reactors were hit, bath local officials say nuclear safety has been secured. also in the shop for the 1st time sensitive invaded ukraine. russia has seized a major city. the mayor of his song confirms that the black sea port is in the hands of invading troops, president for lot of missile. then he says.