poland, ah, what people have to say matters to us on me. that's why we listened to their stories. reporter every weekend on d. w. as proteins war on ukraine continues. there is no end to the bombing, nor the blood shed as civilian casualties. mount europeans look out in frustration at the western inability to hold the fighting. nato is doing all it can to avoid being drawn in you members are divided over how far to go with weapons deliveries and sanctions. today we ask, as nato weighs, its options. who can help you? crane with

. hello, and welcome to the point. it's a pleasure to greet our guests. professor gwendolen. as sasa is political scientist with the center for east european and international studies here in berlin. marcos kyle is the security and nato expert with the berlin based think tank s w t and for check, semanski is a colleague working on dw cole and desk. i'd like to start out with an assessment of where all of you think things stand at the moment ukrainian say that time is running out that cities like g of shaft saw in khaki eve and maria pull cannot hold out inevitably indefinitely. and at the same time, some think tanks are reporting that the russian offensive has stalled some even say failed and that russian soldiers supplies are running out. so gwendolen,

if i may start with you a kremlin friendly newspaper, actually this week published and then very quickly deleted a report that 10000 soldiers russian soldiers have died. we're also hearing the generals have been killed. what do we know about russian losses and their effect on protein strategy? we don't know the exact numbers or thought losses. that was indeed remarkable that this figure was published and then quickly taken down again, there might be even more casualties. we simply do not know. but of course, that is a very sensitive issue, and the koreans also report about high numbers of casualties on the russian side. and that means that's a very demoralizing bit of news to convey to your audiences at home. so that the, the issue is how long can you conceal that? and it's beginning to show that it cannot be concealed. and the more this kind of news travels, the more likely it is that the mood in russia could also change. kremlin watching

is always a bit like reading tea leaves. nonetheless, we are also hearing that heads are beginning to roll within the security service the f b. what do you know about that? and what would that indicate to you about where the kremlin might head? i wouldn't over interpret this at the moment, so i think it's very clear that let me put in takes the decisions and he does so closely in close cooperation with the defense ministry and the, the army. but he already several times and public really showed that he tells the security council and the security, the cielo the key as they're called in russian what to do and that they follow his orders. it is possible that he is rearranging positions or individuals because people are, are beginning to wonder if this war can be one. but i wouldn't doubt that he still completely controls what's happening. and marcus, what would you say?

can russia still when this war, i mentioned that some us base think tanks actually has said so far the russians have failed to achieve their goal. so. so the question to you, how long you think the russian forces can hold out? and then of course, also the gradient. i think both perspectives are correct. the 1st perspective address is the stay you made. you mention that has been a, has been accomplished all that has occurred after 4 weeks of fighting that the front line are quite, quite, even nothing is moving back and back and forth again. so we have an approach, the point of no return for the for, for the russian forces. however, the point is, is putting ready to escalate the war. and that's a key question. if, if he's ready to go all in, that would mean

a major escalate and we have seen all we have heard and read about certain weapon systems would have been used so far. no, to meant the use of weapons of mass destruction. i'm thinking of biological but more importantly, chemical weapon systems. and so i wouldn't rule out some major escalation with unforeseeable consequences for the ukraine, for russia and political terms and for the, for the western community as well. let's come back to that point a little bit later . let me ask you this. as i shake many of the weapons that are being delivered to ukraine are flowing via poland. poland, in fact, has also indicated that it thinks more are needed. what's your sense of whether the weapons deliveries are making a difference for the ukranian? i guess, of course they do the difference. nobody has expected that the crane an army will be able to fight back for such a long time. and even the credit soldiers decrease ukrainian army,

they're posting those videos saying thank you for those for those weapons. they are singing british anthem, a shooting some, some british for some, using some british british weapons. i believe it has made the great change that the west, the sporting ukrainian army with this weapons and the west had supported the ukrainian army before as well because it's not for 4 or 5 weeks now that this weapons are being transferred to ukraine has been a it had been also also before and indeed poland has become the south and poland has become a big harp for this if what is transports and poland has now a very dangerous and very important to role in this, in this crisis. because indeed there is. we don't know this officially, this is classified, but it is very probable that a lot of a lot of equipment is going to transfer polar. and in fact, that's a d

b. one probable reason why there has been several russian attacks on targets on the outskirts of the beef, which is very close to the polish border. how worried are people in poland? they are were very much there were my friends or my family members. when all this started calling me and asking, what do you think, how in how big danger is fallen now? shall we be prepared for an for an attack? people in poland, they're really skirt and the polish government is highly alerted. well, what we have seen are russian missiles striking 10 miles from the natal border and or, i guess russia is sir, very cautious trying not to hit the natal territory because that would, that would have for real tragic consequences. but, you know, it may happen that there is some mistake or some, some failure and it comes to an attack,

the natal territory where we have to be aware of that. speaking of the weapons deliveries, certainly, ukraine's president feels more is needed. let's listen to an excerpt from the latest in his unflagging appeals to the world community. listen, so we did a good lucko. please do not sponsor the weapons of war of this country of russia. i see roll, no, no euros for the occupiers. zachary, close all your ports to them. b nibble's that don't send them your goods viewed move, deny them, energy resources, the push for russia to leave ukraine level grade, i believe. and i know that piece is possible, but you can take action to achieve leave the, the sheldon will break thee her. gwendolyn, europe has already imposed unprecedented sanctions on russia. it is also a sent a record number of weapons, as we mentioned,

to poland in the face of these as, as allah shall said to day unbearable images that we are seeing from ukraine. do you think that citizens and leaders in europe are prepared to do more? they will have to do more and if we think where, where they come from and what, what has been happening in the last few weeks. there is a surprising change in thinking and also in citizen support for different kinds of measures. and indeed these sanctions are unprecedented. the problem with them is that their effects will not happen right now. and so the effect on the actual war on the ground is limited. and so the effects are more on russia as a political economic system in the medium term. and yes, the training president asks for more is always asked for more for more military assistance to you has also doubled the amount of money it will get for military assistance. so this is also new for you to do that like that. and it is also

considering already, some you member states are considering an embargo on oil and gas imports, but that is the tricky issue. and there's no consensus, and of course the consensus inside you and inside nature, it's really important because that's what the kremlin at bank on that nature and the you would not be united. in fact, as a short, once again ruled out such an embargo. but as we know, germany has turned around on other positions as well. marcus, let's focus on nato a bit because in fact, it is holding an extraordinary summit. joe biden, coming to europe to take part in that. what are you expecting the alliance to do for you? create a couple of things. first of all, it will emphasize again that it really is not an interest. it's not interested in escalating the conflict to full blown war with russia that has been made quite

clear over the last couple of weeks when the discuss discussion came up about the no fly zone. and for, for good reasons, need to retake with this idea because that would have involved with mito, rondell stations on russian soil on would be in a rush and saw that would really escalate. however, i think the next, it will be clear that nato countries will continue and maybe increase weapons deliveries to ukraine. but then key message will be the central eastern european allies of natal, poland the baltic, save the states, a book area. romania can rely on rush or rely on it will story. and then maybe the overall team as it will be we will stand together as the west because maybe this is one of the most stunning developments over the last couple of weeks that the europe together with united states as european union,

as natal release center here. and quite consistent message to roger and his follow this message and to be honest, i wouldn't have expected this 6 weeks ago. another thing many people wouldn't have expected a voice. it was a rather extraordinary trip that was taken by the prime ministers of poland. your country as well as the czech republic and slovenia. they travelled by train to kias in the midst of the fighting to meet personally with president lensky and prime minister schmiel. poland has proposed that the polish government and soviet made make 29 fighter planes to ukraine, and that nato sent what it calls a peace mission to ukraine. nato, however, has rebuffed both of those ideas, saying they could drag the alliance directly into a conflict with nuclear armed russia. would you say narrows right on this

what off course nato has to be very, very coaches are doing everything. it's possible to help ukraine, but not crossing the line, which would lead us to some serious confrontation between nato and russia. this polish idea for sending commit to jet fighters, there must have been some problem in the communication i believe. and that was the moment where the west to didn't really speak united and he didn't act united. the west has been playing quite united the last weeks. this was 11 situation where we heard something else coming from or so. then we had somebody else coming from washington. so i believe this idea wasn't really, wasn't really consulted enough with, with other other other leaders. or if the polish prime minister, mister kaczynski not to polish, the deputy prime minister, he proposed to sit nato piece mission in the,

in the ukraine. but we also hear no big interests from nato countries doing it because it will also mean it's like with, with no fly zone in the ukraine. that some flooring natal soldiers would have to be in the train. and russia would have to accept that if we don't want a fight between the 2 and russian soldiers, however, this is diplomacy, this is the world politics. maybe there is some aim in proposing this kind of things to be discussed. and we'll see what's, what's at the end, what's been but some of the criticism about the proposal for the, for the piece mission was that it was perhaps rather populist kind of symbolic gestures. do you think them k, m no, not really. it was, or it was very, very important signal for the ukraine, that those 3 prime ministers went there. it was a dangerous mission,

and i think it symbolically it did help ukraine. it didn't help you correctly didn't change the situation. the war is going on. the ukraine is in a very dire situation, russia still attacking however, for the, for the politics, for the kind of a p, r of this politics. which is also very of this war, which is also very important. it was an important and a very brave or decision to, to go there in the middle of the war and to stand by. does elaine skin saying we will? we are with you. we don't forget about you. we are, we are here. let me ask both gwendolen and marcus just briefly to comment on some of these proposals for an outsider who is not as security expert. it can look a bit like splitting hairs when you say this kind of equipment, this kind of weapons. ok. but here we draw the line, does it make sense to say, mig 29th, not okay or very sophisticated anti aircraft technology,

too risky. why is that? that's a very difficult line and, and, and one can really sense, i think, how much nato is trying to avoid to, to, to really become a direct party to this, to this war. and i think the line, however, has been consistent for nato so far. and it is really delivering air defense capabilities and i thought as also being stepped off, i'm still as we, as we speak. so now systems being delivered that are also capable of having a more long range effect. so that is i think where the consensus is but exactly on the fighter jets that wasn't really good communication within nato and that's where the line has been drawn and personally, i think lightly. so i just wanted to add on this visit. i also think it was a highly symbolically important visit, but the idea of the natal piece mission that cannot fly obviously, and parts of of leg his argument is about and nature small in ukraine. so 1st of

all, a piece mission of any kind. so un mission would have to come on the basis of any agreement of a treaty, but then it's highly impossible, it's impossible, highly unlikely on possible that nato could quite fulfill this one can maybe think of it as launching an idea that there will have to be international involvement, if there is, and when there is peace and with some sort of a piece of sci fi, at least that, that has to be safeguarded. but that cannot be in a, to, in this context. marcus, is there equipment, weapon systems that could be sent that would be helpful to ukraine, that you wouldn't view as likely to provoke escalation on the part of russia? i think everything is helpful currently because the key method of all was to governments. since that said, the cemetery has been, we have to impose costs online and put in if he escalates tensions in ukraine. if he takes ukraine. and this has been the consistent message and actually

a line between defensive and offensive weapon system has already been blurred. that has been the key method of the key counter argument of many western governments until the war broke broke out. but now we have approach the point where if we stick with our goal to impose costs on roadmap, put into influences cost benefit calculations. i think we have to go to go all in and increase it costs me also to deliver events read through ukraine. meanwhile, we are seeing what amounts to a division of labor between the u and ukraine. well, e u. member states and assent weapons and money. nato's been taking action to strengthen its eastern flank, as we've heard, and also to put on a show of strength. further afield. for example, the aircraft carrier, u. s. s. truman has generally and applied it to the pacific ocean and the waters in

the middle east. that is now in the northern ione and see it's fighter jets and radar plains are patrolling nato's eastern borders and looking eastward to ukraine. so let me ask you, why sure. would you expect that to influence the russian president? and if so, in what direction? of course, it has an influence of an on vladimir, put in when nato is sir showing strength. nato. it's showing it's acting. united nato is moving some additional troops to, to the eastern flank, to, to poland, to the baltic states, to reduce the romania m. this is something that for letting me put in, it really didn't want to happen. so this is something what he really achieved and it's the opposite of his, of his goals. this is, this is really remarkable. but i believe also these countries on the eastern

flank like poland or especially the smaller countries like lithuania is tonia. they are really willing to get this attention from from natal. they want me to to, to be there. they want me to, to send the signals, even if it's a verbal signal saying we want allow an inch of, of our natal territory to be attacked by russia. or, i guess, especially for the smaller countries it's, it's crucial to have this, this, this service, even verbal securities are because the situation is, is unthinkable. we didn't expect this to happen just a couple of weeks ago. what's happening now. marcus, as nader, was recently conducting a major exercise in the baltic region and at sea russian ships apparently went out of their way to avoid the nato vessels. at least some german media were reporting that return to port rather than have any kind of indirect encounter with

nato. can you confirm that? and would you say that that indicates that russia, in fact, is not looking to escalate, but would rather avoid a direct transportation? yeah, absolutely, and this is exactly in line with all historical experiences during the cold war at despite the rhetorical aspirations or rhetorical escalation, to put it this way, the soviet leadership and now the rock and able to person, always very keen on avoiding direct military confrontation, a consultation of political and military clients in the old world, in a different reason. ok, but to avoid a confrontation, it's always been an overarching goal and therefore, i'm not really surprised that it's not moving fully withdrawn, but it's aware of the situation to put it this way. in the fight against russia,

ukraine has now established an international legion and urged foreigners to fight with its forces. d. w as begin to shook, i went to the polish border and met fighters there who are ready to deploy to the wars out. this is an actually from finland. it's not his real name. we meet him at the polish trade station commission, packed was equipment and protective gear, and i told he is waiting to ward the train to ukraine to join the fight. they do have the manpower, what they need, ah, in my opinion, instructors team leaders to get people through the pipeline. the training pipeline was 5 years experience as an instructor in the finished defense force, he's eager to share his knowledge with ukrainians. who like combat experience, we meet nicholas,

the financial consultant from france doesn't want us to show his face. he says he couldn't stand seeing russia bombing civilians and europe's hesitant response. i saw a children dying on tv, and so we are doing nothing. so i have to look for nicholas tells us he would be stupid, not to be afraid as his journey to the was on continuous 1st to leave it and then to the front lines. knowing that he might never come back. gwendolen putting also has urged supporters to go to fight with the russian forces . and in fact, the chechen commander a cutter off is said to be in ukraine is all of this are going to help one side or the other. could it make the conflict shorter, or could it prolong it? i think it won't actually a matter so much in terms of our how things get dragged out. and now how this war

will eventually hopefully come to come to a stop. so i think it's more only ukrainian side as international legion is more about boosting more while and that makes our symbolic point a political point very, as far as we know, very different kinds of people with different training and ongoing. so it's not that these all well trained soldiers like soldiers going, so the effect on the actual war i think, will be limited on russia side. and yes, we hear about are several 100 perhaps several thousands and chechen fighters. this is also about psychological warfare to instill fear, in particular the stage when urban warfare might be the next stage of going into into the cities. but again, also, russia engages other mercenaries. there are other, other also syrian mercenaries and, and recruited through russian private security firms. at work, but it is and to carry out special operations that one probably doesn't want more

russian soldiers to get killed. and it is about the psych, a psychological effect on the russian army work is very briefly if you would you see a risk that the foreign fighters presence could actually provoke escalation. i will totally agree with gwendolen. i think it doesn't really influence the funding on the ground and they might have an influence depending on the way the water rolls in the next couple of weeks and watch it if you would just say a word to us. in closing, our title asked, who can help you crane? what would be the perception in poland at the moment? is there frustration is there is some frustration in poland. poland clearly demands that the west, the nato, and the western european countries do more for ukraine. that means they send more weapons, they send more money in the may, a bigger diplomatic, pushed towards russia to stop this war. thank you very much. thanks to all of you

for being with yesterday. and thanks to all of you for tuning in c, a with

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ah, ah ah, this is, did we news live from berlin, siege and starvation out of food, water, and fuel, the people of my you both struggling to survive as promises if humanitarian corridors fail. this says more support for ukraine to protect itself against the threats of chemical warfare. that's the latest pledge from nato had of emergency talks on. russia's invasion, chief against oldenburg, says russia must allow civilians to leave besieged cities and her.