tv Business - News Deutsche Welle March 24, 2022 11:15am-11:30am CET
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mike mike regression going on to install the cable to the last coming up next on dw business, russia once on friendly countries to pay for gas in roubles that you use as that would be a breach of contract. chelsea delaney had the details coming up state of a man with the memories of a woman. ah, ali from syria is born in a female body. forced into marriage, break to his escape, will be the journey of his life. far from home,
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ali can finally become the person he's always wanted to be and the spur, badly elementary credit. and we'll go through with it. i was born in starts march 30th on d, w. ah, the moscow stock market surges as trading reopens after a month. but the rally is not all, it seems as moscow heavily restricts activity. we'll talk to an expert about the real state of the russian economy and gas for rubles president vladimir putin says, countries that have sanctioned russia over ukraine will have to use the russian currency to buy gas. you countries say no chance i'm chelsea delaney and berlin, welcome to the show. rush has benchmark stock and eggs jumped as much as 10 percent
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and it's 1st day of trading since february 28th. that's when moscow halter trading after russian stocks experienced one of the steepest though off in market history. since then, moscow has been hit with a slew of western sanctions over its invasion of ukraine, while russian stalks did shoot higher on thursday. trading has been heavily restricted to prevent further plunges shares in russian equities, including glass form. and burbank can be traded from thursday by the end of the long disclosure of the country. stock market in its history comes with some limits . does still a ban on short selling and foreigners are not allowed to exit local equities, but that may not be enough to stop a sell off. european stocks with major exposure to russia lost more than $100000000000.00 in market value within days of russia's invasion of ukraine, according to an estimate by bloomberg news early this month. meanwhile,
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the rubel has also plunged on february 24th. the day russia invaded ukraine, $1.00 was worth $84.00 roubles. on march 23rd, $1.00 was worth around $97.00 roubles. today, russian businesses are isolated due to western sanctions. most banks are blocked from swift, international payment system. and russia central bank cannot access around half of its foreign reserves. several multi nationals have also decided to quit the market as part of a boycott, making it even less attractive to do business in russia. now let's spring and timothy ash, he's a senior sovereign strategist for emerging markets at blue bay asset management. and thanks so much for joining us. so we did see russian at the right russian benchmark index rise to day. what do you make of that was pretty artificial.
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firstly, short selling of stock is not allowed this re limited section of stock, sir, for a for sale, or can you come trade for it? they'll have to trade them at the russian sovereign wealth fund. as basic, put is put aside $10000000000.00 to buy stock. so this is really been artificially maintained because russia wants to train image that their stability and it's, it's, sir, it's regain durst. what regains to believe on the financial markets? i guess you mentioned 10000000000 dollars that the russian sovereign wealth fund has used to help prop up the market. russia is obviously pretty cash strapped right now. what is, what is the purpose of, of using that precious foreign exchange that precious cash said to proper stocks? well they, they want to send a general message to the population of stability and confidence. remember that the, this, the, the invasion, the sanctions came as a massive shock to russia's population. they believed the lies of the kremlin that they were going to invade. so the biggest hold is of russian financial assets. the
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russians themselves, foreigners sold out. so russians wonder massive amount of pain because of her because of sanctions in the claps origin, financial markets. and there was concern about a run on banks, a broader collapse of macro financial stability. so, so it's all about sending a message that things are okay of what needs to come down. the russian authorities have got everything in control, but it's a, it's a said, it's artificial. it's artificially maintained. the longer term stories dreadful sanctions gonna remain in place for a very long time. the outlook for the machine economies is terrible. there's no real reason to invest in russian assets at this point in time. there also and is a continuing discussions here and you are really around the world about what further sanctions should be put into place. what do you see coming next in terms of sanction? well think energy should be sanctioned in germany central the because for years it's been appeasing putin and it's depend, it's over dependency on any motion and its own fault, right? sure. sanctioning motion energy would have
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a big hit to the german economy. growth would slow, but germany has the strongest fiscal in the u. it can offset the recession, the impacts of the motion energy by pump priming growth with fiscal channel. you know, i think this is time for germany to stand up. actually it's energy sanctions as a 11 of the key angle that the west can hurt putin and maybe stopping with this invasion on the of ukraine. there have obviously been a lot of resistance to that here in germany, which is one of the biggest you importers of, of natural gas due to, since that, that, that resistance is shifting at this point. well if you think about sanctions, there was a lot of resistance to switch sanctions from germany amongst other countries, resistance to cb, our sanctions. remember a lot of these companies, i mean self sanction. it's been the new thing that companies of been embarrassed by the fact that they're still doing business with russia and, and, you know, the wall criminal and the stuff that they've been doing in ukraine. and i think the
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embarrassment is a matter of fact of working towards momentum in terms of sanctions. and i think in, in the end the german government itself could be embarrassed into actually rolling over in terms of the energy sanctions. the option. one thing that's been talked about is a rock style food for oil program that, that might be interesting and might be a middle ground, i guess, between a full band on impulse from, from the, from russia that could probably help as some kind of transition from exactly what that look like and oil, an oil for food program? yes, so sure. so, so any exports of oil or energy by russia would be paid for, though the money would go in an offshore escrow account that would be managed by the international community. and my russian needed to use them. it could only use them for few food or humanitarian reasons. it was impose on saddam hussein. if you remember her after the 1st gulf war, i was pretty damaging in terms of the iraqi economy at that point in time. timothy ash, from blue bay asset management. thank you so much for joining us. my pleasure. now,
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russian president vladimir putin announced wednesday that use your payments for his country's gas exports must be made in rubles. many's the effort to undermine western sanctions and prop up rushes, struggling currency. as explained by put in the new rule would apply to countries sanctioning russia, but still receiving its gas exports. a list that includes the e. u and japan was the live video them as a number of western countries of taken illegitimate decision on the so called freezing of russian as only as the models. directing this collective west has actually drawn a line under the reliability of its current. cecil, when that you've already spoken about this and crossed out the trust and these currencies emotional deviating moodle. but existing contracts are in dollars and euro's making the move dubious at best. john koenig wrong, lee announcement to pay and roubles is 1st and foremost,
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a breach of contracts. and we will now talk with our european partners about how we respond to this important. it's also unclear how payments would even take place. western banks don't trade heavily and rubles, russian banks could exchange the currencies. but that would undermine sanctions, giving russia much needed foreign currency. and in turn, strengthening to weaken rubel. i don't think it is practicable and we already know that not only germany, but italy and australia have already declared that they they will continue to deal with gus brom according to the existing contracts, which means that their payment will be made in the euro or dollar which also means that put into demand further complicates the use long and painful to force from russian fossil fuels. earlier, i stopped again sue to come a professor for international economics at the dusseldorf institute for competition economics. i asked him what russia is hoping to achieve with its verbal payment
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demand. i think he's testing the west. so yesterday morning chancellor falls, he spoke in parliament essentially saying that we are not aiming for guests embargo essentially because we still need the gas. we kind of just turn it off and not putting this play games and testing how far we can do all the course, you know, say what you can have the gas, but only if you pay rubles, will you countries do it well, they pay in rebels. i think the likely scenario is um that they will not do that. i mean we're talking about long term contracts and they are in euro or dollar. so putting kind of just come along and change the routes. i mean, if we would do that, that would be a very weak signal actually. on the other hand, i mean, we still rely, especially germany, a few other eastern european countries on we still rely heavily on gas. so the
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other option would be that we kind of don't play what has happened and say, well, it doesn't really make a difference whether we pay gas from in euro. and that does from transfer the money to the central bank of russia. and there is to exchange to roubles. in the new scenario, we would essentially just exchange at a different russian bank. euro's for roubles and then pay gas from roubles. it's not a big difference, factually speaking. it's just that just putting comes along and changes the rules. this is basically the, the difficult part some i've said that this is a way to sort of under cut a new sanctions and western sanctions on moscow. and do you think that's? that's true. yeah, that's right. i mean, at the moment, basically we pay gulf from in your dollar than that ends up at the central bank of russia, which is sanctioned. and so basically they have to find workarounds and loopholes how they can make use of that hard currency to essentially um,
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effect the exchange rates on international markets. now waste their workarounds. they can operate by china and so on, so forth. but it's difficult. so under the new set of rules, basically we can make life easier for the central bank of russia because we will essentially allow the commercial banks of russia to stabilize the exchange rates because they would basically, um, change make that transaction off dollar euro versus rouble for the central bank so essentially factually basically, it would undercut the sense that we're from post because we wanted to effect the central bank. we didn't want the central bank to operator international financial markets. if we follow protein, we will affect you law, allow com, commercial banks to do the job of the central bank. so what kind of impact? well, this have, i'm on you gas supply, which as we know is already quite stretched yet. well, that depends on what all governments will decide whether they play according to put
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his book. and i'll play the impact, i mean, then factually speak. i mean, basically things could business could go on as usual, and we just paid roubles. as i said, i mean, that's a technical detail, we could do it. but i think the more likely scenario is that we see an escalation of the conflict. so basically you were pin country saying, no, we stick to the contracts there specified in dollar euro, that's what we're going to do. and then, well, we'll see what, how would you react on the same scenario you can say, well, i mean in the extreme scenario on poodle, just close to drain for gas. that was yen sue to come a professor at the duesseldorf institute for competition economics. and before we go, or remind her of our top stories, russia's benchmark stock index has jumped as much as 10 percent, and it's 1st day of trading and almost a month, only handful of shares were allowed to trade. this comes after russia said that
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future payments for it's countries gas exports must be made and rubles, many's the effort to undermine western sanctions and prop up russia struggling currency. and that's all from the end of business team here in berlin for more from us, check out our website, w dot com slash business until next time, take care to the point strong opinions. so your position is international perspectives. no and insight to proteins. war in ukraine, a civilian casualties. mount nato, is doing all i can to avoid being drawn into the fighting. you members are divided over how far to go on to the point where asking who can help you crane men to a point to delivered to ukraine flowing d w. poland. hey there i'm david
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and this is climate change briggs, it's sex. who happiness in 3 books? this is the book for you. you'll get smarter for free. do you book on you turn as proteins more on ukraine continues. there is no end to the bombing, nor the blood shed as civilian casualties. mount europeans look out in frustration at the western inability to hold the fighting. nato is doing all it can to avoid being drawn in the you members are divided over how far to go with weapons deliveries and sanctions. today we ask as nato ways, it's options. who can help you craned.
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