you oh, live and on demand content language courses with video and audio. anytime. anywhere. the d w media center now into its 2nd month, the war in ukraine has failed to give russia the quick victory of warranty. and there are signs of growing discontent among the political and security elite back in moscow. a small band of investigative journalists is managed to pierce the veil of secrecy around those officials. among them, andres alberto founder and editor of the tour of website which tracks russia's intelligence services. he's my guest this week from london. how worried a russia spies about the progress of the war? people inside are not really happy. it was the way the war is going,

and they blamed just one guy by the mere portion of that. so who is most likely to turn against putin and why? how long can he blame others for the setbacks for the invasion? he ordered? is anyone waiting in the wings to take over if he stumbles? and what are the chances of that camp putin in the long term survive this? do think a lot, thinks out all that and more on conflict of address or that of welcome to complex own. thank you for having me. for a long time, you and some of your colleagues have maintained extraordinary contact with whistleblowers in the russian security services. you implied recently that failures by russia's army are causing cracks in russia's leadership. how serious in your view are those cracks? while that is correct,

why jimmy was installed of his war by attacking his own people. and we see him tracking his for the intelligence agency that he placed on the house arrest to f as b junior. all domestic agency, a box for the intelligence range in charge of the situation in ukraine than it was torn or the national guard. and the deputy head of the national guard was forced to retire. and he was just 45 years old. so yeah, it doesn't look really good and it sounds really, really different from the p. this was our budget report and a half. and that caused a lot of confusion inside of the security services. and people inside are not really happy because the way the war is going. and they blamed just one guy, was in there for that. doesn't he risk turning some of them into powerful enemies against him? after all, is a pretty ruthless system, isn't it?

yes, it is. but the thing is bad about russian security agencies and the army. they do not have a tradition tool conspire to be honest. the last time the russian military tried to have some sort of code that was probably in the 19th century where 5, if father bore bolt off this embrace the nation 25 and the didn't go well for them . the russian security services, all this controls the army of us. all this is brain. i was the military content that isn't one of the big. ready department of the f as b, and they have their own people, m provide in every military department and never a military unit. so for the military, it's not actually an option. it's also not an option for the security services, because what the push and just for his own security here as to the security agencies. and they just that the protection person that if you were pushing though,

who's loyalty, do you think you could now count on? and conditionally, i think his personal security services, he has the service of the protection of the president. these people are close to him. and also his he has is the federal protection service. again, this people are both talk if they're providing protection for him and for high level officials. and usually these people are very low to him when they be inside, as in the system, people in top positions who are looking at the poor performance of the army, looking at this huge economic backlash from the west that's about to hit them and saying, we can't survive this, it's all gone too far. you talk to some of russian spies. how worried are they about the progress of the war and, and the reaction to it in the west? something they don't seem to have attracted in?

well, yes, they are war but not. because of the racks of the west or the one you train them most worth about their positions. they see that which has been a tie can based on people for quite some time. and to be honest, that started before the war, we've been living in this climate off fall selector progression for probably 7 years now. and that is why we have governors and ministers in jail. and also we have is be people in jail. so people inside, they are mostly of board to bought, bakery yes. but of course the understand now that trouble believes was not go and would it well. and they're made mostly they're thinking about themselves. we do not only, we don't only have tradition to or well of really good because peter says, but also it's a problem of a lack of political opposition. while it's very different from what we had like 20

years ago, 20 years ago in russia. we still had some political pottis', political groups, and if you have say, several generals the unhappy if the president, the police, there had some political force to go and to ask them for political support. we do not have this big. now, the political position is either in, in jail or a in a czar last week, one of your fellow journal flood the amount of such kin who's published a number of letters from an append whistleblower in the f s. b. he went so far as to say that with every week the war goes on, the risk of a coup against putin is growing. you wouldn't agree with that, would you? oh, 1st of all, why the? but i said, can he's not my call. if he's not journalists, his human rights activists, and he's a very good given rights activist. he has his own sources, but my contacts and thought of the secret to services. they're not i don't hear

from them, but they're ready for some sort of action. i don't think they are there yet. when you say ready, ready, in what way? psychologic be ready already in terms of organizational movements. what. what is that read it's? it's really difficult for them psychologically. and organizational psychological because now we have in the rest of security services, people who grew up and met their careers and the one president and probably the one director of the f b because the guy who is now is in charge. he has been around since 2007 with that means that you have a junior ration of, of officers who have no experience without the people. i mean, the father lived us their political struggles. they grew up thinking that the

president would be forever. and that i would say narrow, it's based thinking and that horizon they, when you talk to them, they usually talk about the department, maybe about the unit, but never about the service and never about the country. they do not have b s. b, guys, yes. about the future and most of the concerns about themselves. so psychologically, it's a really difficult for them are gonna sessional as i sat just to build and none the ground organization inside was would be really huge challenge because we have this big problem of mistrust inside of the security services. so you have middle level officers distrusting the general and general destruction. they, subordinates. how worried are these people inside the security service about losing their privileges and their money? and the perks because put in the help to create a john tuck chrissy in russia. hasn't he institution's lives corruption in the

police and security service has been demick for years, has net? yes i the straw box and the falls at 16 i'll be, they've been living in a slightly different reality. puts on stripped to f as b and other security services of the right to travel abroad. so they all ready law, some of a privileges. they also, they do not have a disability rights to have property abroad. so based on the some sort of not depression, but some, some sort of pressure from the president quite some time. so they know has to buy their loyalty doesn't to with something. yes. yes, absolutely. yeah. they have been joined good salaries and all that. but it means that fan not feeling themselves independent. there the instrument that was made very clear about them. so you can see them in every criminal case against

the political opposition of the rest of the lease. but they're not acting independently. whatever happens with putin, there is no sign of any liberal faction waiting in the wings to take over. is there none? what's not a look and doesn't exist and to be honest, have as a whole bad say, as rationale, golf now might be while we're bow just because dave put on those attractions all, it's not a really option here. base people because we lost their contracts with the some years ago and they were given help by the government, by military contracts. now, many of them became part of the russian military industrial complex. and that makes me even more dependent on the craft and, and looking at the repression that's been going on now for some time. and obviously has been stepped up during the war. we have what, 15000 people so far arrested on the streets, beatings, widespread intimidation,

long prison sentences. are you hearing any qualms at all from the intelligence services that this is going to fall that soviet style repression is perhaps no longer sustainable in 2022? not to hear that i'm going to rate people inside just security services. got convinced that that there was a lot of best young again because they had this big guy. yeah. that old but things in russia happened before because of their lucel's. and there has been a big fear, but something like 970 and mice one day repeats itself in russia, and they had biz bis obsession as their own revolution. the problem that lucian is, but in they opinion, evolution was started by a small bunch of amy grass, not by big political party. that is why they are convinced. but when you to

suppress all kinds of political activity, just no matter how big it is, because we're not behind the crack down the new crack down on the like saying the value of the opposition politician, for instance, in the extra 9 years that he's been given in jail, other likely to be more show trials like his on the way. i expect more shot trials, but not against a political opposition because it's all, reggie non exist them in the country. but you can expect some big criminal investigation against the russian lives. because these days is mostly consult with the loyal to all of the russian bureaucracy. and so you can expect some more governance, more ministers, a sentence out. and that is why the secret service is concerned. because when they see that they're now under attack. and so for a moment about putins rhetoric, keys, spoken of traitors and scum in society, and the need for self purification,

is he trying to divert blame from himself and on to those who haven't supported his war while he tries to, to rely on bis feelings, shared by many of the country that russia is, this is for, for us. and that has been all this under some sort of attack from west and the biggest, how far the west, in this case provided by liberals in the country. so actually what is which is doing right now is encouraging people to leave the country. remember him, his famous line that the russians people will split ah, this traitors out of a mouth just like a flea, i think, but was his expression. so actually he's encouraging people to leave and the b. c bad already. mobile, 70000. i specialist left to come check. not to mention intelligence.

john, listen activists. this pushing out of people who don't support the war. how does that messaging go down with the public at large the majority, i still packing the war. unfortunately. yes. and they think that ah, actually it may be good for the country, some sort of cleansing of the country. because of his liberal fe joy at a bow goods, well fly, and all of us. and now it's time door protect our country. so we have this deep feelings of a busy, just fortress and putting knows how to play with it. what about when the public finds out the scale of the casualties, which hasn't yet been revealed to them? just as they found out when the soviets were in afghanistan, soldiers mothers have shown themselves in the past to be a pretty formidable voice in russian society having 1st of all of its kind of

activity. so far so good is ation. you mention that most of soldiers is suppressed, but forages. so it's not actually safe for the mothers door. the cold days are going to station and block for how the other problem is that puts you in actually, if he understood something about the war in chechnya, that for instance, is about to not to have soldiers drafted and big switches sent to the wall. that is why you see all this people now taken prisoners and ukraine and them mostly from siberia, from distant regions, and some for russia like more to go there. and you say, care about them. well, if you have some people killed and you have a relatives and a small town in and though they're soft costs, but that would be a problem only for the small community and not for just like moscow or some

pictures book. but they were sensitive enough about the casualties that when come so most proud of the newspaper printed some figures briefly on march the 22nd and then raised them figures which suggested the army had lost nearly 10000 men with more than 16000 injured. they were very worried about that. what they cover up the casualties on the latest vigorous provide that last week was 1351 people killed. but again, of course it's very far from reality. yes. you absolutely right. they got to really know that spot, too much surprise. it didn't trigger any reaction in the russian society. so you have his mother's, you have a relative, quiet word, but that's all about it. and to be honest, the most astonishing part of that is these relatives and mothers, they are mostly worked about a songs,

but they're not what they but what their songs doing in your brain. so base is astonishing. lack of sympathy for the ukrainians, which to me is very shocking because every single family, all not single look at every 2nd family in russia, has some relatives in your brain. what went wrong with the progress of the war with the organisation of the war last week? ego get can form a colonel and the f. s. b counterintelligence said the war in ukraine was based on a catastrophic, the incorrect assessment of ukraine's forces. the enemy was underestimated in every aspect. if that's true, why was the intelligence so poor? well, because it was not only bought but intelligence, it was also bought the consumer of his intelligence. everybody knows, including people inside of the f as b that pollution, all this has had strong opinions about ukraine and about the functionality or

just the functionality of the ukrainian space. and we know that you're right, you're not because you had to strongly pinions. so you're going to listen to any country intelligence, is that what you're saying? absolutely, and it's not it bob's health above that. so rather than terrorism is trying to tell him that, look, you would be great at vast grid at the flowers. it's about a very cynical approach and assumptions bad. the gradient stage and ukrainian people will just give up, the state would collapse immediately and we just need to while to impose our wheel . and that's it. what happened to the huge investments russia is supposed to have made in its forces in recent years. we now hear from western intelligence that claims that the numbers huge numbers of russian missiles simply don't work. don't fly straight, don't explode on impact. what happened was the money or siphoned off when corrupt

deals by, by people connected to the military. well, i think that yes, the performance of the russian army is not very impressive, but i will blame not hold his army buckles of political leadership. these war was very different from all the previous put in was in many respects, include them that way. it's actually a lat, i mean is a chain of command even now is still unclear in all the previous, which is worse. you have this think it's called the joined rebel forces. and usually you have a commander and you know, his name is that was public. i'm in the oldest and you the name of a general us ultimately in charge of that situation on the battlefield. what we've seen haven't generally killed on the battlefield, haven't we? that's pretty unusual, isn't it? to have janet was actually there? absolutely, and i think the problem is that we do not have this general come on right now, so we do not know who is in charge and that is why you have all this problem with

communications. we have current nation, and that is why as a general they think that we need to go, there's a frontline to see by themselves and they get killed. so it's not really goods and tom saw how the whole thing is organized. but political element, i think still plays a huge role in that. for instance, we do not understand militarily speaking, why we have the national guard troops sent into ukraine. these people are trained to deal with us on the streets, not to be engaged, and the punk battles. and now well, naturally for a month, b. c. columns of these people sent in the ukraine, get killed and darned, and nevertheless, the russian government still doing this. mister saw that of what, what should we read into the strange appearance of the defense minister such a show i grew after a long absence from public view was slurring in it. these words in

a way we haven't heard before, and the rumors reported by the ukrainians have been that he's had heart problems if he damaged goods. now including ours, all i heard from my store. so bad question was quite unhappy where 5 guests showing goal. but what do we need to remember back to get sugar is extremely small and his very shrewd political operator has been around for 30 years, much longer than putting himself. and he knows how to play with him. so he could have some problems that he has cause, but also he could play for a time the problem put in his face and now is that there is no real replacement for their game show goal. we used to have the collection of popular generals who became popular because of the 2nd church and one of war and george and sir, what shaw gore di if he got rid of them, most of them. so if you need to find

a good replacement for shribel right now, it would be if huge challenge and may be. so i would just wanted to make sure that we can understand that reports in the last few days have said russia is going to concentrate its military efforts on the done bass region. one should say it has so far, no sign as other operations are ending. but it is moscow trying to recalibrate its war aims to something it can achieve after having failed to achieve its initial aims. andrei, cartoon of who heads the russian international council, says the countries leadership comp lose no matter what they will need to end. this whole story with some kind of victory. what if i can't while yes, it looks like they're trying to provide some explanation as a public. and they saw that last big where far as the rest of the middle tray,

one blake and talking to some program to me. yeah. trying to explain what's been wrong. all might be trying to say that everything is still according to plan. and now they say yes, it was all about dunbar. note about p f r and we are not going to storm will be seated. it's all about and certain vis, cjis and then about from cleansing. so of a change in rhetoric, obviously suggested comic and this organization doesn't this confusion while not to panic, but confusion that for claire. but to be honest, i also, i do not quite understand how, which i can get out of this revolve claim in some sort of victory. he needs that he needs to provide some victory to the russians and to the world because it's all about just stinging and, but to be honest, i don't quite see what it might be. because even if say he has some sort of

agreement that the landscape, the sanctions, i still that as a column is ruined. and for what i don't know about a korean style partition. is that a possibility that he might accept that? ah yes, but again, it will not be a we'll win for, for russia, because he'll raise the space he said, but we need to cleanse ukraine of the nazis and all that we need. then you deal with nate that is not getting that. so again, i don't quite understand what his and gay president biden's words in warsaw the weekend, supposedly off the cuff to the fact that putin can't remain in power. how do you think that will have been understood by the various factions inside the system? back in russia, those who may be thinking that also putins time should be coming to an end.

while that is once struck can difference from what we see now from what we sell and falls under food g. and when we saw on down the station near the back, then as a russian broker say, there was an army as a russian security is the all on the same page, they all support a future. they believe that that was the right thing, that everybody got excited and unfortunately a lot of population also believe, but that was the right thing to do. now is a big shift. so people might still believe that something should be done with the ukraine, but they think that the way it was done was not very good one and they blame one guy, was me and, and i think it's quite significant, very briefly because we're running out of time can put in, in the long term, survive this, do think a lot of things out and i so that's

good to have you on the program. thanks very much. thank you. ah ah, with

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ah, ah, ah, business dw live from berlin, russia's actions in ukraine damping hopes of a reduction of its military operations. russian forces continue bombarding areas near keith and chinney heave. despite promising to scale down a tax cranium, president village immerse lensky sounds. a defiant tone, saying his forces will fight for every meter of his country. also coming up vladimir, put intel's ukrainian forces in the besieged or c d.