the w every journey begins with the 1st step and every language with the 1st word college pinnacle rico is in germany to learn german. why not learn with him simple online, on your mobile and free shut, the w e learning course, nico speak, german made easy. now into it's 2nd month, the war in ukraine has failed to give russia the quick victory if wanted. and there are signs of growing discontent among the political and security elite. back in moscow, a small band of investigative journalists does managed to pierce the veil of secrecy around those officials. among them address alberta, founder and editor of the eigen tour of website which tracks russia's intelligence services. he's my guest this week from london. how worried russia spies about the progress of the war? people inside are not real happy,

lives the way the war is going. and they blamed just one guy by the mere portion of that. so who is most likely to turn against guten, and why? how long can he blame others for the setbacks to the invasion? he ordered. is anyone waiting in the wings to take over if he stumbles? and what are the chances of that camp putin in the long term survive this? do think a lot thinks out. all that and more on conflict of andre, so that of welcome to complex own. thank you for having me. for a long time, you and some of your colleagues have maintained extraordinary contact with whistleblowers in the russian security services. you implied recently that failures by russia's army are causing cracks in russia's leadership? how serious in your view are those cracks? while that is correct, why?

jimmy was in start of his war by talk in his own people and be see him a try catch his for the intelligence agency that he placed on the house arrest to f as b junior, all domestic agency, a box for the intelligence range in charge of the situation in ukraine than it was the town or the national guard, and the deputy head of the national guard was forced to retire. and he was just 45 years old. so yeah, it doesn't look really good. and it sounds really, really different from the p, this was our budget report and a half. and that caused a lot of confusion inside of the security services. and people inside are not really happy because the way the war is going. and they blamed just one guy, was in there for that. doesn't he risk turning some of them into powerful enemies against him? after all, is a pretty ruthless system, isn't it?

yes it is. but the thing is bad about russian security agencies and the army. they did not have a tradition tool conspire to be honest. the last time the russian military tried to have some sort of cooper, it was probably in the 19th century where the father bore bolt off. this embrace the nation bench 5 and the didn't go well for them. the russian security services, all this are controlled. the army of us all this is brain shows the military content that isn't one of the biggest department of the f as b, and they have their own people every provide in every military department, never a military unit. so for the military, it's not actually an option, it's also not an option for the security services, because what the major portion, just for his own security here, has to secure edge edge. and just, and they just that the protection person that if you were pushing though,

who's loyalty, do you think you could now count on unconditionally. ready i think his personal security services, he has the service of the protection of the president. these people are close to him and also his he has is the federal protection service. again, this people are both tockets if provides and protection for him. and for high level officials, and usually these people are very low to him. well they'll be inside those in the system. people in top positions who are looking at the poor performance of the army, looking at this huge economic backlash from the west that's about to hit them and saying, we can't survive this. it's all gone too far. you talked to some of russia spies, how worried are they about the progress of the war and, and the reaction to it in the west. something they don't seem to have attracted in?

well, yes, they are war but not because of the ration of the west or the one you train them most worth about their positions. they see that which has been a tie can based on people for quite some time. and to be honest, that started before the war, we've been living in this climate off selective progression for probably 7 years now. and that is why we have governors and ministers in jail. and also we have is be people in jail. so people inside, they are mostly of board to bought, bakery yes, but of coffee, i understand now that trouble believes was not go and we did well and they're made mostly they're thinking about themselves. we do not only, we don't only have tradition too, or well of really good conspiracists, but also it's a problem of a lot of political opposition. while it's very different from what we had like 20

years ago, 20 years ago in russia, we still had some political partis, political groups. and if you have say, several generals though unhappy if the president the police, they had some political force to go and to ask them for political support. we do not have this big now. the political opposition is either in, in jail or in a czar last week, one of your fellow journalist for the amount of such kin who's published a number of letters from an apparent whistle blow in the f s. b. he went so far as to say that with every week the war goes on, the risk of a coup against putin is growing. you wouldn't agree with that, would you? oh, 1st of all, wasn't what i said, can he's not my call. if he's not, the journalist is a human rights activist and he's a very good humor. i talk to this, you have his own sources, but my contacts and some of the secret services that not i don't hear from them,

but they're ready for some sort of action. i don't think they are there yet. when you say ready, ready, in what way? psychologic be ready already in terms of all organizational movements. what, what is that read it's, it's really difficult for them psychologically. and organizational lead psychological because now we have in the rest of security services, people who grew up and met their careers and the one president and probably the one director of the f b because the guy who is now is in charge, he has been around since 2007. with that means back you have a junior ration of, of officers who have no experience before the people. i mean, the father leaders, their political struggles. they grew up thinking that the president would be

forever. and that i would say narrow, it's based thinking and that horizon may when you talk to them, they usually talk about the department, maybe about the unit, but never about the service enough about the country. they do not have b s. b, guys, yes. about the future and most of the concerns about themselves. so psychological, it's a really difficult for are going to sessional as i sat just to build and none the ground organization inside was would be really huge challenge because they have this big problem of mistrust inside of the security services. so you have middle level officers distrusting the general and general destruction. they, subordinates, how, why are these people inside the security service about losing their privileges and their money? and the perks because putting the help to create a john talk chrissy in russia, hasn't he?

institution's lives corruption in the police and security service has been demick for years of net yes. or the straw box, and then 2060 and i'll be been living in a slightly different reality. puts on stripped to f. s b and other security services of the right to travel abroad. so they all ready law, some of a privileges. they also, they do not have a disability rights to have property abroad. so based on the some sort of not repression but some, some sort of pressure from the president for quite some time. so they have to buy their loyalty doesn't to with something. yeah. yes, absolutely. yeah, they have been joined, good salaries and all that, but it means that fan not feeling themselves independent. there. the instrument that was made very clear about them. so you can see them in every criminal case

against the political opposition of the russian, the lease. but van, not actin independently, whatever happens with putin, there is no sign of any liberal faction waiting in the wings to take over. is there none? what's not a look and doesn't exist? and to be honest, if it's a whole that say, is a rationale golf? now might be while we're bow just because dave puts on those attractions all, it's not a really option here. these people because they lost their contracts with the some years ago and they've been given help fuzzy government by military contracts. now, many of them became part of the russian military industrial complex, and that makes me even more dependent on the crammed and looking at the repression that's been going on now for some time. and obviously has been stepped up during the war. we have what, 15000 people so far arrested on the streets, beatings,

widespread intimidation, long prison sentences. are you hearing any qualms at all from the intelligence services that this is going to fall that soviet style repression is perhaps no longer sustainable in 2022? not to hear that on the going rate, people inside just security services. got convinced that that there was a lot of best young again because they had this big idea that old but things in russia happened before because of their lucel's. and there has been a big fear, but something like 970 and mice one day repeats itself in russia, and they have biz bis obsession has their own revolution. the problem that sort of illusion is but in they opinion, evolution was started by a small bunch of amy grass, not by a big political party. that is why they are convinced. but when you to suppress all

kinds of political activity, just no matter how big it is, because we're not behind the crack down the new crack down on the like saying the value of the opposition politician, for instance, in the extra 9 years that he's been given in jail, other likely to be more show trials like his on the way. i expect mall shot trials, but not against a political opposition because it's all reggie non existent in the country. but you can expect some big criminal investigation against the russian, the late. because these days as the consult with the loyalty, all of the russian bureaucracy. and so you can expect some more governors, some more ministers, a sentence out. and that is why the secret service is concerned. because when they see that they're now under attack. so for a moment about putins rhetoric, keys, spoken of traitors and scum in society, and the need for self purification,

is he trying to divert blame from himself and on to those who haven't supported his war while he tries to, to rely on bis feelings, shared by many of the country that russia is, this is a fortress, and that has been all this under some sort of from the west, and the biggest, how far the west, in this case provided by liberals in the country. so actually what is which is doing right now is encouraging people to leave the country. remember him, his famous line that the russians people will split ah, this traitors out of a mouth, just like a flea. i think that was his expression. so actually he's encouraging people to leave and the b. c bad already mobile, 70000. the specialist left to come check. not to mention intelligence.

john, listen activists. this pushing out of people who don't support the war. how does that messaging go down with the public at large? the majority are still packing the war. unfortunately, yes. and they think that, ah, actually, it may be good for the country, some of cleansing of the country because of his liberal fe joy at a bow goods, well fly, and all of us. and now it's time door, protect our country. so we have this deep feelings of a busy, just hold trust them putting knows how to blend it. what about when the public finds out the scale of the casualties, which hasn't yet been revealed to them? just as they found out when the soviets were an afghan to stand, soldiers, mothers have shown themselves in the past to be a pretty formidable voice in russian society having by 1st the fall of its kind of

activity. so far so good is ation. you mention that most of soldiers is suppressed, but forages. so it's not actually safe or the mother store the cold is i'm going to zation and block will help. the other problem is that puts you in actually, if he understood something about the war in chechnya, that for instance, is better not to have soldiers drafted than big switches sent to the wall. that is why you see all this people now taken prisoners and ukraine, and dam mostly from siberia, from distant regions, and some for russia like more to go there. and you said he didn't care about them. well, if you have some people killed and you have their relatives and the small town in, and though they're soft costs, but that would be a problem only for the small community and not for just like moscow or some

pictures book. but they were sensitive enough about the casualties and when comes most proud of the newspaper, printed some figures briefly on march the 22nd and then raised them figures which suggested the army had lost nearly 10000 men with more than 16000 injured. they were very worried about that. what they cover up the casualties on the latest vigorous provide that last week was one falls on 351 people killed. but again, of course it's very far from reality. yes. you absolutely right. we got, we didn't know that spot too much surprise. it didn't trigger any reaction in the russian society. so you have his mother's, you have a relative, quiet word, but that's all about it. and to be honest, the most astonishing part of that is these relatives and mothers, they are mostly worked about the songs,

but they're not what they but what their songs doing in your brain. so base is astonishing. lack of sympathy for the ukrainians, which to me is very shocking because every single family, all not single look at every 2nd family in russia, has some relatives in your brain. what went wrong with the progress of the war with the organisation of the war last week? ego gac inform, a colonel and the f. s. b. counterintelligence said the war in ukraine was based on a catastrophic, the incorrect assessment of ukraine's forces. the enemy was underestimated in every aspect. if that's true, why was the intelligence so poor? well, because it was not only bought but intelligence, it was all said, bought the consumer of his intelligence. everybody knows, including people inside of the s s b that pollution. all this has had strong opinions about your grade and about the functionality of all this functionality of

the ukrainian space. and we know that you're right, you're not because he has his strong opinions. so he's going to listen to any country intelligence. is that what you're saying? absolutely, and it's not, it was held above that. so the russian intelligence try to tell him that, look, you would be great at the vast grid at the flowers. it's a very cynical approach and assumption bad. the gradient stage and ukrainian people will just give up, the state will collapse immediately and we just need to while to impose our wheel. and that's it. what happened to the huge investments russia is supposed to have made in its forces in recent years. we now hear from western intelligence claims that the numbers huge numbers of russian missiles simply don't work. don't fly straight, don't explode on impact. what happened was the money or siphoned off when corrupt

deals by, by people connected to the military. well, i think that yes, the performance of the russian army is not very impressive, but i will blame not hold his army, but also political leadership. these war was very different from all the previous put in was in many respects. include in the way, it's actually a lat, i'm in a chain of command. even now is still unclear. an older previous, which is worse. you have this think it's called the joint rebel forces. and usually you have a commander and you know, his name is that was public. i mean, you all of this new to name of a general us ultimately in charge of that situation on the battlefield. we have and generals killed on the battlefield, haven't we? that's pretty unusual, isn't it? to have gen, i was actually there. absolutely, and i think the problem is that we do not have this gender come on right now. so we

do not know who's in charge, and that is why you have all this problem with communications. we have current nation, and that is why as a general, they think that we need to go, there's a frontline to see by themselves and they get killed. so it's not really goods and tom saw how the whole thing is organized. but political element, i think still plays a huge role in that. for instance, we do not understand military speaking, why? we have the national guard troops sent into ukraine. these people are trained to deal with us on the streets, not to be engaged in punk battles. and now, well, naturally for a month, b. c columns of these people sent in the ukraine, get killed and darned, and nevertheless, a rocking governor. still doing this. mister saw that of what, what should we read into the strange appearance of the defense minister such a show i grew after a long absence from public view was slurring in it. his words in

a way we haven't heard before and the rumors reported by the ukrainians had been that he's had heart problems if he damaged goods. now including ours, all i heard from my sources. that question was quite unhappy here. where 5 again, shaw ago. but what do we need to remember that so good sugar is extremely small and his very shrewd political operator is been around for 30 years, much longer than putting himself and he knows how to play with boots in. so he could have some problems if he has hard, but also he could play for it time the problem put in his face and now is that there is no real replacement for ca, chicago. we used to have a collection of popular generals who became popular because of the 2nd church and wines of war and george and sir, what show gore did, he got rid of them?

most of them. so if you need to find a good replacement for shribel right now, it would be if huge challenge and may be a struggle. just wanted to make sure that it's and understands that reports. in the last few days of said, russia is going to concentrate, it's military efforts on the done bass region. one should say, hm, so far, no sign is other operations are ending. but is this moscow trying to recalibrate its war aims to something it can achieve after having failed to achieve its initial aims? andrei, cartoon of who heads the russian international affairs council, says the countries leadership can't lose no matter what they will need to end. this whole story with some kind of victory. what if they can't while yes, it looks like they're trying to provide some explanations as a public and the day i saw that last big, wherefores,

the rest of the military. one blake and talking to some program to me. yeah. trying to explain what's been wrong. all might be trying to say that everything is still according to plan. and now of a say, yes, it was all about done boss. note about p f r, and we are not going to storm will be seated. it's all about and sort of is cjis and then about from cleansing, of a change in rhetoric. obviously, both suggested can make and this organization doesn't this confusion well not to punish but confusion that for claire. but to be honest, i also, i do not quite understand how, which i can get out of this throughout claim in some sort of victory. he needs that he needs to provide some victory to the russian and was a world because it's all about just thinking and, but to be honest, i don't quite see what it might be. because even if say he has some sort of

agreement that the landscape, the sanctions i still baz economy is ruined. and for what i don't know about a korean style partition, is that a possibility that he might accept that? ah yes, but again, it would not be a we'll win for, for russia because he raised the space he said, but we need to cleanse ukraine of the nazis and all that we need. then you deal with nate that is not getting that. so again, i don't quite understand what his and gay president biden's woods in warsaw the weekend, supposedly off the cuff to the fact that putin can't remain in power. how do you think that will have been understood by the various factions inside the system? back in russia, those who may be thinking that also putins time should be coming to an end.

while that is once struck can difference from what we see now from what we sell and falls under 4 g. and when we saw on next and the station pairing near back then as a russian broker say, there was an army as a russian security is all on the same page. they all support a future. they believe that there was a right think that everybody got excited and unfortunately a lot of population also believed that was the right thing to do. now is a big shift. so people might still believe that something should be done with ukraine, but they think that the way it was done was not a very good one and they blame one guy was me. and i think it's quite significant, very briefly because we're running out of time can put in in the long term. survive this, do you think? i don't think so. andre,

so that's good to have you on the program. thanks very much. thank you. lou with

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