ah ah, with ah, david, what does war do to people are hatred and violence inherited from generation to generation and award winning documentary searches for answers. for 2 years. the all camera companies that sell a fist family in northern syria insights into the isolated world

of radical islamists and into a spiral of violence without end. a film about family, faith, masculinity of fathers and sons starts april 16th on d, w. ah, a new report puts a figure to the economic devastation in ukraine. the country's economy is expected to shrink 45 percent this year. that's according to the world bank. poverty is now rising quickly in the country and among its neighbors. also on the show, talent and business is leaving hong kong fed up in part by 2 years of her lead the devastation caused by russia's war and ukraine has been visible for weeks. now,

a new report from the world bank is attempting to put numbers to the economic costs of the conflict. and let's start with ukraine. the world bank forecasts. it's economy shrink by a whopping 45 percent this year. it says, half of all businesses in the country have closed and that trading goods has come to a grinding halt. as a result of russia's attack, of the wars, of course, taken a toll on russia as well. considering those economic sanctions and the world bank expects the rushes economy will contract by 11 percent this year. and the economic cost of a spill over from the war are also emerging. the report warning that an influx of refugees hire commodity prices, as well as lower external demand in the euro area. all of that could contribute to slower economic growth. that's why it's now forecast or changed it's forecast for the year to 3.5 percent growth in central europe. and that's more than one percentage point lower than it's january forecast, a 4.7 percent. earlier today i spoke with anna berta. she's the world bank's vice president for europe and the central asian region. i asked her to put the new

numbers in perspective for us. oh, thank you so much, steven, and thank you for having us. yeah, the yeah. we just came out with our bi annual report. oh, which she looked at the entire european central asia region. but of course the main headline is the forecast for ukraine, which indeed we forecast will have a g p shrinkage of about 45 percent. and the reason for this is really that at this war is having devastating impacts on ukraine. of course, the humanitarian toll is very high. but if you look at the, from an economic point of view, we're seeing, of course, a collapse in air domestic demand. we have seen business as close. the black sea is about 50 percent of all exports in ukraine. go through the black sea. that's of course right now very difficult. and also what's important to keep in mind is that a, where the fighting is taking place is where 50 percent of the g d. p of ukraine is produced in the 1st place. looking outside of ukraine,

should we expect to see poverty increase in this entire region of central central europe, asia? absolutely. and in ukraine in of itself, let me start with that. a ukraine had made strong strides and poverty reduction over the last few decades. and we had a poverty rate of about 1.8 percent in 2021. when our forecasting poverty will go up to close to 20 percent in 2022 with another 60 percent of the population at risk across the region. we will also see a lot of increase in vulnerability because of rising prices and the rising inflationary effects that we're seeing across to region. the countries that i'm most worried about are the countries in central asia, because remittance is from russia make up about 30 percent of g d p. both in tajikistan in the caregivers republic and remittances have always been a very effective tool to augment incomes. and therefore,

to address poverty. at the same time, we're still the very early stage what appears to be the early stages of this war. how hard is it to create a forecast when we don't know if things will get worse or potentially even better? should there be some kind of ceasefire in the coming months? well, sadly you are right, we are very much in an active workspace. and our report also lays out a downside scenario, which is even more detrimental. and of course, we are hoping that this war and so that we can start the much needed phase of helping ukraine to reconstruct and to rebuild and to do the same also to help other countries around the region to bolster their economic growth potential. and at the same time, protect vulnerable, but it can get worse before it gets better and that is something we really have to try to prevent. the world bank is giving advice to countries to do everything they can to, to maintain macroeconomic stability,

continue economic integration. but also in the meantime, step up on social protection and social se, in that for the most vulnerable and briefly, if you can. what does this new report tell us about the scale of rebuilding? i know that it's still earlier we just said, we don't know when this thing is going to end, but i would assume this will be something of a generational task given the kind of devastation that we've seen. absolutely, stephen, and we're actually actually right now working on a report dedicated to ukraine that will take a look at the needs both at the priority needs both during the war, but also after the war and simple reconstruction. and we're working very closely with the government of ukraine in doing. and what we have learned over the years is that when a country is in conflict, it's important to maintain crescent as an international development institution. because when the war ends and the conflict ends, we would be able to be there and services will have been maintained to the

population and institutional capacity and institutions will have been maintained. and that's very important for the day after the reconstruction needs will be huge. the destruction has been widespread and it will require a very, very strong coordinated effort across international community and also partnerships with the private sector. or i want to leave it there on a bureau road bank, vice president for the europe and central asia region. thank you very much for joining us. thank you. over to asia know where the consequences of the war are also quite palpable. china reporting that factory gait and consumer prices rose faster than expected in march supply shortages made worse by that conflict in ukraine as well. several major cobra. 1000 outbreaks contributed to dr. inflation above expectations. china's producer price index increased a point 3 percent year on year, or consumer prices rose much faster than the previous month. the spread of coven 19

has also been a blow to hong kong economy. strict coven regulations adopted from the mainland, have all but isolated the semi autonomous territory from international traffic. many companies, individuals are now leaving hong kong. that's raising questions about the future of one of asians biggest trading ups. a hong kong travel agency psychos to survive by turning itself into a grocery instead of trips. they sell to them from overseas. many others. i shut it because of the pandemic for the closure has made child like almost impossible for over 2 years. however, the air pos to patch a terminal is getting busier since 2020 to hong kong has seen, and that's also of a 160000 of the patches. a 5 vote increase from last year. many a foreign talent, like john wood, who left with his business after 8 years in hong kong. i want to be able to have my son where he has the freedom to do simple things like go to the beach or walk

around outdoors, a lot of mascot. and as a global philanthropist, i want to have the freedom to travel around the world and raised my seed funding. and so for me, hong kong went from one of the most open, exciting cities in the world to being the senators closed and petrified, where the government's policies seemed to change willy nilly. the final straw is hung over here as to china. sarah cove at policy prompting the toughest measures ever made on the canal break. not only individuals at voting with her feet, but also companies companies or have significant problems to refill positions to attract talent, to hong kong, across industries, even reaching as far as financial services industry, which has usually been perceived as the most resilient part of it. in the later survey with this by the european chamber of commerce, about half of the european companies in hong kong plan to relocate in the coming

year. only 17 percent will certainly state. hong kong is actually a popular base for regional headquarters, a foreign businesses to exit of its pass comes on top of the local branch. i'm checking my political peebles and a sweeping national security loan. when you wake up every morning and see that journalists are being arrested on that, some newspaper publishers are being arrested. that there's no more freedom or sam boy, no more freedom of speech that hits me pretty hard if you can subject the city state to all the solitude if you do the cultural dna and your actual dna dies. flights fans and compulsory hotel quentin have been slightly relaxed from april after backlash. but for business and see it too little too late. as lacking a go map of the opening. companies have to search for alternate super connectors. we do hear seeing or so tokyo i'm calling will not lose it's status with regards to mainland china where they will have the same role for asia as one of the

most important. they're not only financial center, but also business center with in asia. we'll have to see hong kong has always recovered from crisis over decades. but this time there is no guarantee fee because brought us that report. she joins me now from hong kong. hello there. phoebe. is this indeed just a crisis to be overcome? or are we talking about hong kong identity as the major asian trading on? is that, is that not changing before our eyes? well, let's remember hong kong has already undergone a 3 and assessing years. first is to political upheavals, to protest and the pandemic, and to see cove at policies. so hong kong is expecting a 1.6 percent g d p growth. our forecast this year lagging behind most of his asian pierce in the region. and just recently, to head out the us international air transport association warned that hong kong is

effectively off the map due to the strange and travel restrictions. so such damage has been done and many fear that that damage would be permanent. if not, it was a, are you reversible? to what extent does the government acknowledge this and what is the extent? is it trying to reverse this course? we're after as the fear backlash from the business community to government, it tried to communicate with the business or enterprises and a foreign community and a half lift hit the fight bands from april and is planning to relax. some of the domestic social is something mesh us later this month, but the business community are saying that these matches are too little to lace as they haven't seen any road map or excess strategy to get them all of this limbo. and i'd like for many businesses in hong kong that such meshes, it's not enough that the fear that on the mesh it's what light eventually but hong

kong at the end of his international status. all right. phoebe. com. it'll be corresponded in hong kong. thank you very much and will go now to some of the other business stories making headlines. tesla c o u on mosque will not joined what his board of directors, as had been announced. musk has built up a 9.2 percent stake in the company. over the weekend, he sent several tweets, suggesting major changes to how to put or operates, and apparently decided not to join the board. the used fisheries commissioner says a post bags, a dispute between france and the u. k. over fishing licenses is close to resolution . following negotiations, the original breaks deal had given french boats rights to fish and british waters. but france said many of its boats had been unfairly deny licenses. francisco said society generally will sell its major majority steak and russian bank ross bank to intros capital. the move comes after the french lender faced huge

pressure to in the 15 year investment due to russia's invasion of ukraine. shares and frances, their largest bank, rose 8 percent on the news. that's it for me. for me, in the deed of business team, you'll find out more about these and other business stories online. he w dot com slash business. i'm seeing beardsley watching blue, dark and gloomy london full r. g. e. lori kish, nigerian artists mission is to brighten up london as line and with your romance on d. w. now we've got some hot tips for your bucket list.

romantic corners. check hot spot for food and some great cultural memorials to boot w travel off we go. ah, ah ah ah ah, spain's most beautiful village in 2022 is point today. to find out why in just a few minutes. everyone and welcome to another edition of your max with me, your house to megan lee. here's a look at what else we've got in store for you today.