welcome to the show, i'm seeing busy in berlin. the devastation caused by russia's war and ukraine has been visible for weeks now and new reports from the world bank is attempting to put numbers to the economic costs of the conflict. i would start with ukraine. the world bank forecast it's economy will shrink by a whopping 45 percent this year. it says half of all businesses in the country have closed and that trading goods has come to a grinding halt. as a result of russia's attack, of the wars, of course, taking a toll on russia as well. considering those economic sanctions of the world bank expects the rushes economy will contract by 11 percent this year. and the economic cost of a spill over from the war are also emerging. the report warning that an influx of refugees hire commodity prices, as well as lower external demand in the euro area. all of that could contribute to slower economic growth. that's why it's now forecast or changed it's forecast for the year to 3.5 percent growth in central europe. that's more than one percentage point lower than it's january forecast of 4.7 percent or earlier today i spoke with

anna berta. she's the world bank, vice president for europe and the central asia region. i asked her to put the new numbers in perspective for us. oh, thank you so much, steven, and thank you for having us. yeah, the we just came out with our bi annual report which looked at the entire european centralization region. but of course, the main headline is the forecasts the ukraine, which indeed we forecast will have a g d p shrinkage of about 45 percent. and the reason for this is really that this was having devastating impact on ukraine. of course, the humanitarian toll is very high. but if you look at the, from an economic point of view, we are seeing, of course, the collapse in domestic demand. we have seen businesses close, the black sea is about 50 percent of all exports in ukraine. go through the black sea. that's of course right now very difficult. and also what's important to keep in mind is that where the fighting is taking place is where 50 percent of the ttp

of ukraine is produced in different looking outside of ukraine. should we expect to see poverty increase in this entire region of central central europe, asia? absolutely. and in ukraine in of itself, let me start with that. a ukraine had made strong strides and poverty reduction over the last few decades. and we had a poverty rate of about 1.8 percent in 2021. when our forecasting poverty will go up to close to 20 percent in 2022 with another 60 percent of the population at risk across the region. we will also see a lot of increase in vulnerability because of rising prices and the rising inflationary effects that we're seeing across to region. the countries that i'm most worried about are the countries in central asia, because remittance is from russia make up about 30 percent of g d p. both in

tajikistan in the caregivers republic and remittances have always been a very effective tool to augment incomes. and therefore, to address poverty. at the same time, we're still the very early stage what appears to be the early stages of this war. how hard is it to create a forecast when we don't know if things will get worse or potentially even better? should there be some kind of seas far in the coming months? well it sadly, you are right. we are is still very much in inactive worth face. and our report also lays out a downside senari, which you see been more em detrimental. or of course, we are hoping that this war ends so that we can start to much needed phase. so been helping ukraine to reconstruct and to rebuild and to do the same also to help other countries around the region to bolster their economic growth potential. and at the same time it protect vulnerable, but it can get worse before it gets better. and that is something we really have to

add. try to prevent the world bank is giving advice to countries to do everything they can to, to maintain macroeconomic stability, continue economic integration, but also in the meantime, step up on social protection and social safety net for the most vulnerable and briefly, if you can, what does this report tell us about the scale of rebuilding. i know that it's still early, as we just said, we don't know when this thing is going to end, but i would assume this would be something of a generational task given the kind of devastation that we've seen. absolutely, stephen, and we're actually actually right now working on a report dedicated to ukraine that will take a look at the needs both at the priority needs both during the war, but also after the were end simple reconstruction. and we're working very closely with the government of ukraine in doing things. and what we have learned over the years is that when a country is in conflict, it's important to maintain crescent as an international development institution.

because when the war ends and the conflict and we will be able to be there and services will have been maintained to the population and institutional capacity and institutions will have been maintained. and that's very important for the day after the reconstruction needs will be huge. the destruction has been widespread and it will require a very, very strong coordinated effort across national community and also partnerships with the private sector and love to leave it there on a bureau. we're being vice president for the europe and central asia region. thank you very much. for joining us, thank you. over to asia know where the consequences of the war are also quite palpable. china reporting that factory gate and consumer prices rose faster than expected in march supply shortages made worse by that conflict in ukraine as well as several major cobra. 1000 outbreaks contributed to dr. inflation above expectations. china's producer price index increased 8.3 percent year on year,

or consumer prices rose much faster than the previous month. the spread of coven 19 has also been a blow to hong kong economy. strict coven regulations adopted from the mainland. have all but isolated the semi autonomous territory from international traffic. many companies and individuals are now leaving hong kong that's raising questions about the future of one of asia's biggest trading hopes. hong kong travel agency psychos to survive by turning itself into a grocery instead of trips, they sell to them from overseas. many others. i shut it because of the pandemic for the closure has made child like almost impossible for over 2 years. however, the air post to patch a terminal is getting busier since 2020 to hong kong has seen, and that's also of a 160 thousands. the patches. a 5 vote increase from last year. many a foreign talent, like john wood, who left with his business after 8 years in hong kong. i want to be able to have my

son where he has the freedom to do simple things like go to the beach or walk around outdoors, a lot of mascot. and as a global philanthropist, i want to have the freedom to travel around the world and raised my seed funding. and so for me, hong kong went from one of the most open, exciting cities in the world to being the senators closed and petrified were the government's policies seemed to change willy nilly. the final straw is hong kong. a here is to china. sarah cove, a policy prompting the toughest measures ever i meter on the canal break. not only individuals, a voting with a feet, but also companies companies or have significant problems to refill positions to attract talent, to hong kong, across industries, even reaching as far as financial services industry, which has usually been perceived as the most resilient part of it. in the later

survey with this by the european chamber of commerce, about half of the european companies in hong kong plan to relocate in the coming year. only 17 percent will firmly state hong kong is actually a popular base for regional headquarters. a foreign businesses to exit of its pass comes on top of the local branch. i'm checking my political peebles and a sweeping national security loan. when you wake up every morning and see that journalists are being arrested on that, some newspaper publishers are being arrested that there's no more freedom or sam boy, no more freedom of speech that hits me pretty hard if you can subject the city state to all the solitude if you do the cultural dna and you watch all dna dies. flights fans and compulsory hotel quentin have been slightly relaxed from april after backlash. but for business and see it too little too late. as lacking a go map of the opening, companies have to search for alternate super connectors. we do hear singapore,

so tokyo, i'm calling will not lose it's status with regards to mainland china where they will have the same role for asia as one of the most important. they're not only financial center, but also business center with in asia. we'll have to see hong kong has always recovered from crisis over decades. but this time there is no guarantee. phoebe cong brought us that report. she joins me now from hong kong. hello there. phoebe. is this indeed just a crisis to be overcome? or are we talking about hong kong identity as the major asian trading on that? is that not changing before our eyes? while? let's remember hong kong has already undergone a 3 and assessing years. first is the political upheavals, to protest and the pandemic, and to see a cove at policies. so hong kong is expecting a 1.6 percent g d p growth. our forecast this year lagging behind most of his asian

pierce in the region. and just recently the head of the, of international air transport association warned that hong kong is effectively off the map due to the strange and travel restrictions. so such damage has been done and many fear that that damage would be permanent. if not, it was a, are you reversible? to what extent does the government acknowledge this and what is extent? is it trying to reverse this course? well after, as the fear backlash from the business community to government, it tried to communicate with the business or enterprises and the foreign community and a half lifted the fight bands from april and is planning to relax, some of the domestic social distancing mesh us later this month, but the business community are saying that these matches are too little to lace as they haven't seen any road map or excess strategy to get them out of this limbo. and i'd like for many business as in hong kong that such meshes is not enough that

the fear that on the mesh, it's what light eventually but hong kong at the end of his international status. all right, phoebe con, it'll be corresponded in hong kong. thank you. very much and will go now to some of the other business stories making headlines. tesla c o u la musk will not joined what his board of directors as had been announced. musk has built up a 9.2 percent stake in the company. the weekend, he sent several tweets, suggesting major changes to how twitter operates, and apparently decided not to join the board. the used fisheries commissioners, as a post brags a dispute between france and the u. k. over fishing licenses is close to resolution . following negotiations, the original briggs deal had given french boats rights to fish and british waters. but france said many of its boats had been unfairly denied licenses. francisco said society generally will sell its major majority stake in russian bank

ross bank to interest capital. the move comes after the french lender faced huge pressure to in the 15 year investment due to russia's invasion of ukraine. shares and frances, their largest bank, rose 8 percent on the news. that's it for me. for me in the detroit business team, you'll find out more about these and other business stories online. he w dot com slash business. i'm seeing beards watching. with

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starts april 16th on d, w. ah ah, this is dw news line from berlin. tens of thousands have been killed in ukrainian city of mary old paul. that's the estimate from ukrainian president lansky after more than a month of relentless shelling by russian forces on the port city. no time for excuses, the german foreign minister calls on the european union to provide ukraine with more heavy weapons. he's joining other european union for ministers in luxembourg

today. we'll go live to that later in the show.