talking about here is not only disorganized violence, it's not only terrorism. it's politics. founded over 150 years ago. it's repeatedly died out, but always been resurrected. the ku klux klan starts may 11th on d. w with russia now pushing for full control is southern and eastern ukraine. western countries are ramping up military support for kiev supplying billions of euro's worth of artillery tanks and drones, images of suffering, death and destruction like these from maria. paul are prompting western politicians to deliver not only military, but also moral support by visiting and battled ukrainian leaders in here in the face of strong pressure to do more german chancellor. although sholtes now pledges to supply heavier weaponry like anti aircraft tags,

but says he won't be visiting here any time soon. how far can and should western help go? we're asking war in ukraine is the west all ready? a party to the conflict with . welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to introduce our guests. mater lemming is senior editor and author at the berlin daily newspaper their targets speak. and were very pleased to have with us stephanie bob's. she is a global policy advisor, who formerly headed nato strategic foresight team, and a warm welcome to carl alina via gorda. she is a polish journalist who frequently comments for international media, and is currently a fellow at the robert bosch academy. and i'd like to begin with

a look at where things stand at the moment. it's just about 2 weeks since the russian invasion entered a new phase that's focusing on southern and eastern ukraine. stephanie, you had, i think of 2 decades of practicing strategic foresight for nato. so what's your take on the russian campaign? what do you think are the objectives now? oh, for the time being, i think it's pretty clear that from a military point of view rusher seeks to conquer and ultimately also sustain control over the don bus and a large part of southern ukraine. i understand that's the quote unquote minimal that she take objective that a president putting seeks to achieve. but broadly, more broadly speaking, what he has been educated and sad all along as he really wants to alter the political landscape, or the political map in europe if need be by force. so he is dull oh, after

a quote unquote, direct confrontation with us. so does this look like you like it would be from russia's point of view, a permanent occupation that they're striving for? definitely, if president putin could achieve the military objectives, are which seeming the are quite hard to, to, to do lead me to really conquer and ultimately sustain military control over the numbers and the southern part of ukraine. then ukraine would be basically reduced rum state without access to the us off a i mean to the black sea and also the sea of us off. and that would really be quite hard for ukraine. speaking of the c. s off the port city of maria paul and it's besieged as of styles. steelworks have become the focal point of ceaseless shelling in this new phase of the campaign for a few who had taken refuge there. the ordeal ended this week before we continue.

let's hear their voices arriving in our patricia. this group, the mario poll made it all the way to this ukrainian control town on their own list, of course that you know, we are so tired and i can't talk. i'm not feeling well after so many bombings and 2 days on the road is almost hiding completely burned, completely destroyed by bombing. why this war? who needs this war? my neighbors have died. the people who i was born with and grew up whether i lived in their house, do you understand how serious it is? children died, dead bodies were scattered in the streets and no one went there to remove them with mario pole has been under siege for weeks and is now largely devastated. according to ukrainian estimates, at least 20000 civilians have been killed. why is mario port so important to putin?

and let me put that question straight away to a carolyn. oh, why has maria pull become such a focal point there? as of still works? what would be the significance for the russian campaign? the significance is symbolic. the russians have been so ineffective in occupying any of the ukrainian cities. in fact, they have successfully on the occupied had a son then, or you pull is an extremely important part of this threat, the g. but they would like also to say that it's not only about strategic games road, because if it was on the about strategic aims, we would have, ah, a war that would be concentrated on occupying territories or cities. but we also have another goal, which is simply destroying, and i think we should underline that because this is not only about a permanent russian presence in ukraine. this is not only about mario pal or any other city. this is also about permanent destroying of ukraine,

and i think it's extremely important. thank you for, for that insight malta analysts say that the russian forces don't appear to be doing a lot better at waging this part of the campaign than they did the earlier one. that again, we're seeing signs of ineffectiveness from a military point of view. what's your impression? yes, so i was, i was surprised to, i mean, most expert. so predict that the 1st instance q will fall in between a couple of days. are they retreated from the whole area. are by saying that we can't, we can't even go to key if we can't top of the government of and in ski, president zalinski. so what they're doing now is, is to, to do what, what they are best in the just shoot and destroy cities, destroy places, kill people. and so it might be even inhabited the for, for russian speaking inhabitants of the crate. so it's more disjoint affair

than a conquering affair, because what to conquer? just land land is nothing without industry, without people, without anything you can do. so they are, they're trying to negate ukraine access to the black sea into the as of sea. so the big question will be to they go as far as odessa, because of this is still a part of the black sea. and the lexia is important because bulgarian romania bordering to the black sea. and they're both nato members so. so the access to the plexi is very, very important. so to go, in fact, a stephanie, as this latest offensive began, a senior russian military commander said that the goal of the offensive would be to create, among other things, a land bridge to crimea. if all of this is the case, this outrage destruction as an aim in itself, a permanent occupation, a land bridge to crimea. is this something that the west could let stand?

oh, that's of a very dick, a difficult and tricky politic question because we see, i mean that on the, the camper of nato members are end in ukraine. they are, there is no conceptual view yet. i mean, what is actually the political end state that we should have chief, i mean, what is it really that we would like ukraine to be after the war? are we talking about ukraine within the tweet 2014 territory boundaries? are we talking about the ukraine? who's territorial independence, territorial integrity and the state sovereignty should remain within the boundaries of post 2014. so i would be very, very reluctant to make any type of for prognosis here because this really depends on a number of factors, including events, obviously on the battlefield. and also events in the weeks and perhaps months to

come, catalina, let me get your response on the same point. you know, what, what can the west or perhaps contemplate as part of a longer term solution of some kind. and where would you say this is a clear red line for the west, and it must absolutely do everything to defeat russian names. so 1st, i would like to still echo a stephanie's answer and say that we, we don't know the end goal for ukraine. and neither do we know the end goal for russia. we actually don't know where, how in what shape russia comes out of this, of this war. what do we want? certain people over the speak about forgiveness and about reconciliation with russians after after this war. but it is very difficult to speak about reconciliation when the evil is, is, is currently done as far as i can tell,

nobody in your poland is speaking about reconciliation, obviously. but my country is, is a part of the eastern europe really european region, which is historically very much experienced by the russian imperialism. so you can say that our experience of rush and import, it isn't coming back and to and attacking our region is just 2 to 300 years. that's why we have so many existential fears that are influencing our politics. also to be honest, that's why we are also very prone to speak from the high moral ground saying that we knew it all over from the beginning, how the rush i would behave. and we always, we also very often say that we know better what to do with russia. i want to come back in a moment to the imperialistic aims. but one question if i may a follow up question in regards to what russia might do next. and that is in connection with me nights there's a lot of speculation about

a possible general mobiles. the mobilization of russian troops, perhaps even a declaration of war against ukraine because we haven't had that formal declaration yet. why is this victory day, as it's known, the day on which russians commemorate the defeat of the nazi so important for russia? it's very important because it's symbolizes something. it's symbolizes a very important day of defeating naziism. so this is, this is extremely important, this way. but they do believe what we can expect on the 9th of may. we have no idea what putting we'll say, of course, but he will probably try to speak to his own people, to the people who are still loyal to him. not necessarily to us, not necessarily to the ukrainians, but the people who still support him matter. what would that mean in terms of the necessary western response? if in fact there were to be a general mobilization or an official declaration of war from russia side are those simply symbolic gestures, or would the west need to react to that in some form?

very skeptical, if putting really close to down mobilization or to close the war against against ukraine. it could not be against the west just because then he would admit that what he said in the beginning were not to have another war. we have not an invasion, it's just a special operation. we're having a new crane was wrong. he would admit that he was wrong. i've never heard put in saying that. so may, 9th is a very delicate day for the, for russia, because of is very, very special history. you remember starlin was the leader with the red army of the great petro took war against all to germany, defeating delta jeremy. this is the, the huge fix fixing point in russian history style you, on the other hand, is responsible for the go look for, for,

for pressing russian people for the hold of them all the, the, the hunger company in the ukraine. so coming to terms with this really difficult past is something that is very difficult, but what you are suggesting to me is that that is a day on which putin would want to look strong. right. if, if i didn't ask you, stephanie, we've also heard speculation about the possible use of attack and tactical nuclear weapon battle field nuclear weapon, by russia, as it's called, is that something that you do consider within the realm of possibility? and again, the question, how should the west react to that? well, ever since the president putting us started to make out these quote unquote, nuclear threats public. and i think it was on day 2 of the campaign already. i started to take it obviously extremely serious because he left a models oper. randi, i mean that was established you in the cold war between our nuclear powers. and

that is, i mean that you, i'm sorry that you are. then you are extremely reluctant and extremely cautious with your strategic messaging when it comes to nuclear threats. in other words, you don't do that unless, i mean you really, really, i would like to leave basically at the, at the greet a game play. and this is what president putin has done. so i am very much reassured by the fact that president biden said that he already some weeks ago established a so called tiger team in washington. that looks at concrete contingency planning. in cases off potential use of w n. d as a weapons of mass destruction. urban activities are a rather yes, read a post by russia, and i think that's good. i mean that this is being done. it's being undertaken, but i'm a bit skeptical whether to make this a public get it, say

a reasonable speculation or subject of speculation because this is exactly what plays into put his hand. yeah. if we sit here around and we show that we are concerned and that we even are really scared, i mean that's already part of his that he did messaging. so in other words, i mean we should be, i think we should refrain a bit from the speculations b, simply say we are pad. let's take a look at what a particular western countries are now doing. starting with the united states, multi president biden has now called for $33000000.00 and further support for ukraine. as a former washington correspondent, what do you think biden is, is striving to do here? many analysts say this war is actually as much about russia versus the u. s. as it is about russia versus ukraine. would you agree? and would you expect that the latest us move would be escal atory?

i would say the americans are well advised, not to take this as a war between biden and poaching. this is something to put in once he wants to sit side by side with the joe biden. we are the most powerful leaders in the world, maybe choosing ping from, from china as joining us. but, but, but my partner in dealing with the conflict is not the ukraine. it would be jo by i would say no, not this, and not bringing the nato again. it's not a war between nato and, and russia. it's a war between freedom loving country, so called west and russia and occupying ukraine and invasion of the country and so on. this message should be a unified message from all countries that are opposing a put his war in the ukraine. and not personalizing this, in terms of the president of united states, the president of russia. and not giving the impression that we have a,

a military block called dado against russia in those instances that concern. colina is one of the reasons that the germans have been extremely ambivalent about providing anything that could be considered to be heavy weaponry. poland repeatedly pushed for berlin to go further. and in fact, now we are seeing movement by, for example, the bonus tag, which has cleared the way for delivery of anti aircraft tanks at. do you understand the ambivalence here in berlin? and do you see a real shift in chancellor shelters position? so i understand that there is a vast part of the german society which is simply afraid of her at home and war, starting in the heart of europe and to one can understand that the germans are actually not alone in this fear. because the atomic or something which is being

feared across other european countries too. but i must say that perhaps here, the polish perspective is an interesting one. because bonus, we are actually afraid of nuclear plants. we know this from opinion polls, but us for the at home war. it's not that anybody is now saying that they are afraid of, of, of this nuclear conflict. why perhaps, because as experience as we are a, by the history of russian neighborhood, we basically think if the russians go in, we, if they cross the ukrainian or border and go further west, for example, or further south, the destruction will be there anyway. so what is the difference? this is one thing. the other thing, of course, are connected with the nuclear war is, is the question whether we can at all provoke putting there is this wonderful historian, steven called king, who wrote a very interesting biography of use of stalin. who wrote an interesting piece

saying, well, in 1939, what nato was not there. 200 years ago, nato was not there. so perhaps this idea that nato or any country in the us could provoke something in russia is not right. perhaps it's rather a long cultural and political habits that we are observing, coming back right into the, into the heart of europe. sorry, caught my eye on the clock. so i'm going to, i'm going to stop you there must because i do want to just quickly listen to a statement by chancellor schultz responding to charges that he has become a war monger. the german chancellor told the traditional made a rally of german trade unions that radical pacifism has become obsolete. that deal kind of, we will continue to support ukraine with money, with humanitarian aid. but it also must be said, we will support its ability to defend itself by supplying arms as many other

european countries are doing. that is essential. now. i respect all attitudes. i know, but a ukrainian citizen must find it cynical to be told to defend against pollutants, aggression without weapons. and this isn't where we are. stephanie, not an easy thing for a social democratic chancellor to say you could hear the cat calls there in the background. the entire time, what do you think? will the german government now follow through and act on those words? are we seeing a real qualitative shift in germany's willingness to play a more proactive role in general when it comes to european security? i hope so that i'm cautiously optimistic. let's put it like this. ok. and i think on the other 111 has to bear in mind that indeed it wasn't easy for

a coalition government that started with a completely different political agenda or to make a u. turn and then turn into a crisis management know, dealing with out to fall out of a really full scale military conflict in the midst of europe. and if you look at how social democrats within the party, but also the green party has started to shift to start to become really we focused . i personally think they've done a pretty good job. and if you look at individual actors, if you look at the child for himself, i personally think christ communication looks a little bit different. i would have personally appreciated if you had come more. i mean, if you had become more focused and more targeted and his, she did messaging at the end of the day, i think what matters for the government is to convey to the german public that they have a plan that they, that we do have

a plan or they succeeding in that matter. i don't think so. i even don't think the german plans will solve the problem. is, is it much the problem in the war is it's a much bigger problem than the one the germany alone can deal with. i mean, we need the corporation, the unified cooperation of all of the block that we are called the west, a value orientated group of nations. that simply cannot, you cannot abide by the rules of war. and by but not obeying. 2222 international law rights and that, that should be all message we should be in coordinate with our partners in europe in the united states. what the plan is, it's simple drama is not, i mean, clearly. so let's talk a little bit about the nato plan and again, we have very little time. but i do want to talk about the possible application for

membership to nato by finland and sweden, their prime ministers have just been here in germany. visiting with the german cabinet, germany said it will support any application from the to if that goes forward. nato's eastern expansion has been one of the things that has made putin c read for at least 15 years. now carolina, is this the right moment for a further expansion of the alliance? again, the question whether we can provoke putting and whether the with him can really provoke 14. i think this is ironic. put in what that something else he wanted to stop, the east, the east expansion of nato. he provoked something completely different, perhaps this he, he's the side, he's who is provoking actually in the situation. this is, this is one thing. the 2nd thing, of course, is that once those 2 countries are in nato, and i do believe that will, they will be members of nato soon. the question will arise in the more eastern part

of the continent. why not mold vivian well, the over why not ukraine? so i think this is not the end of our very difficult discussions. in theory, any promises made to vladimir putin in the past would now be a essentially void given the fact that circumstances have changed. legal doctrine says as much on the other hand, that's legalistic, stephanie. the reality, as we say, is that we don't know how putin will respond. should nato take in these new members? absolutely. i'm a big advocate of not leaving sweden and finland any longer in a strategic gray zone because this is where they are. i in, i mean they're a very, very close partners of native for a number of years already. there are members of the are opinion, but they remain vulnerable without optical 5. and it's at the end of

a day nuclear protection given by nato. so yes, it's a, it's a good use and i think looking at sweden and finland is countries, they are vibrant democracies. there have 1st class. i'm forces they know that we're talking about and i think we can learn from them some ways as well. so let me come back to our title and i'm going to ask each of you. this is tough, but to please give me a yes or no answer. is the west already a party to the conflict or will it succeed in walking? the thin line between support and intervention auto legally. it's not a part psychologically you could be regarding this, realistically, we are already in our own western values. we stand with ukraine as just answers your question. i would say you have a very elegantly avoid it. yes or no, answer many thanks to you for being with us today. thanks to all of you out there

for to and again see you soon. i ah with

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ah ah ah, this is dw news coming to live from berlin. a new attempt is under way to evacuate civilians from the as of paul's steel plant in murray of poll. we must continue to do all we can to get people out of these hill scapes. but russia is reportedly continuing its ground assault on the last ukrainian stronghold in the port city. also coming up after a barrage of criticism for not sending heavy weapons to ukraine.