runs, we're not going to declare a total war, but we're not backing down either in the seems to be a real attempt to get the russian people to tow that line. and, you know, by saying by, you know, flipping the dynamic around and saying like, look, we're the ones, wonder attack is really kind of playing into this whole media system that they build up. you have to realize there is no real opposition media and there is no critical media in russia. tv channels, all totally criminal line. it's mostly from one proxies we're showing up there anyway. same thing with most of the newspapers as well. there isn't that free opposition? media, which basically means he has the ability to basically dictate what reality is, at least what the public perception is. and that's what he's doing here. he's basically saying this is the line we're going to go with, and this is the line you're gonna continue to feed to the russian people. so for me, this is about swearing, the russian people in for a very, very long conflict, probably moving to the winter. well, he succeed. do you think you think he'll get the russian people on board? i do, i do to be honest. there is widespread support for putin and for this conflict. while of course, there are a lot of people questioning the legitimacy of it at the same time,

but not doing that publicly right there. isn't that open free space for democratic public debate as you do have in western countries? so yes, i do think it would be successful now if this really drags on, if this really becomes another afghanistan for them, that could be a different situation. you might seen some more protest there. i mean, when it comes to the body count, the soviet union was 14000 people over 10 years in afghanistan. and by all indications, the russian federation in just a couple weeks of fighting has already lost more than that. so as more people continue to come home in body bags and the costs continue to pile up, it could change those russian. why this, you know, people that are left behind a going to thought they're going to the definitely gonna start noticing and is this becomes a continued war patrician. that might change the dynamic. but at least right now it seems that putin's booting is basically seen to the russian. people like look we have to fight this fight. this is going to be our internal fight moving forward. he even said that at one point, this whole idea of the immortal regiments, you know this, this, this honoring the, the fallen of to he said this is the same,

that direct connection. this is our once again, existential struggle against the west, against these, suppose it not, the forces that don't actually exist. so it really seems like you say, look, this is a fight about the very existence of russia, which again, it goes into this dynamic of russia being under assault, which is just not the case. but it seems like putting is not going to back down in the situation, just want to give an inch. what about the sanctions? i mean just briefly, the sanctions. there's been a lot of conjecture as to whether or not they'll be effective. you think that look like a man that is going to be swayed by sanctioned the em as they take hold. will people in russia do you think, turn against this? the same military operation or the sanctions are definitely having an effect. this is the worst run of sanctions or they've been under sanctions in 2014, but this is an incredible, a new level of sanctions. we're talking about oil embargoes against the country. you have to remember 55 percent of the russian budget is actually funded by the sale of hydrocarbons. so yes, the sanctions are having an incredible effect. at the same time though, sanctions have never stopped an army. the only thing that stops in armies and other

army, so you know, the sanctions are hurting the russian people and hurting russian businesses. but no, i don't think it's going to turn the tide and the conflict and also put in is not a man respect sanctions. you are peck's power and that is really what the only thing is gonna be able to stop them. we want to turn to the military aspect now and stay there. we'll come back to you shortly, but we're going to turn now to oxford in the u. k. where frank led, which is standing by the former british military intelligence officer, and an expert on military strategy. thank. thanks for joining us. what you'll reflections on put in speech or 1st of all, as our and hinted, there was a, straight out there was an attempt to de, legitimize ukraine. i think the country was mentioned once at the start, i'm not even sure of that certainly wasn't, didn't figure the name of the country wasn't mentioned. don boss, however, figured 5 or 6 times, which indicates the course the focus there for now. russian strategy was quite surprising to me that that was that, that was foreground,

it's so much. so that's my initial reflection. and then of course is that sort of read back into the 2nd world war. and the length of the conflict already talked about that this is going to be a long struggle preparing people for kind of casual heavy casualties. that in fact, we're already that we're knowledge. i'm quite interesting to mention of course of, of mobilization yet. no, well, there was a lot of speculation there on where the president would efficiently declare war in ukraine. that didn't happen. there was moments they were, i thought he may actually do that, but the language he pulled back, were you surprised by what he said? to that extent? yes. but but only from a sort of analysis perspective. ukrainians are pretty confident. last week their intelligence, i was pretty confident that they were going to declare mobilization. and over the last couple of days that they've been very sources which are tend to tend to indicate that was going to happen. and i didn't expect for motivation because i

think those aren't already certain make it over the last week or so. it's really difficult to do. they haven't really got the equipment for it. it's a bureaucratic and immense exercise, politically dangerous, but perhaps puts calling up of an early action on a conscript or something like that to, to reflect the importance of the war. but we didn't get that very interesting, but it is also because it's a to somebody, it's a failure question analysis 1st time that's happened during this war, british were very, very, pretty, pretty certain it was going to happen to last week. the americans were calling back . how do they use that speech to sell the special operation as they call it, to the people there? just simply saying it right from the start as an extension of the war against the bone growth see not sees, always reading back into that. we've already heard about the immortal regimen. some talk about that over the weekend. a little bit of corruption around it. but anyway, because it was clearly going to be full grounded. so yes, a continuation of that old struggle time and time to get a b plus

a constant mention of don bus. not to me was very interesting. focusing that campaign or f frank, stay with us. we're gonna come back to you in a minute. want to look at the military strategy of russia now, as russia commemorates it's world war 2 victory, western countries say it has nothing to celebrate in its invasion of ukraine. the scale of ukrainian resistance has confounded russian commanders. russia has made little progress in its invasion in recent days. the battlefield map shows russian forces still holding an arc of territory across you, cranes, east and south centered on that break away dumbass region. russia has been forced to scale back its ambitions after retreating from areas surrounding cave. uttering the capital key was one of moscow's primary objectives when it launched its invasion of ukraine back in february. but the level of resistance russian

forces encountered, took many by surprise. by early april, tens of thousands of its soldiers had pulled back over the border into russia and into neighboring belarus. small towns like mockery west of the capital, have been left in ruins. now in the spring sunshine, the semblance of normality has returned daily life goes on. now the russians have retreated. but more disturbing evidence is emerging that russian troops committed war crimes, ukrainian prosecutors, and rights groups say hundreds of civilians were abused and murdered. of course, the are russian government tend to russian military's. i've committed awful crimes . i war crimes and felt that they must be held to account what

having failed to take keith. russia has stepped off its attacks in easton ukraine, focusing on the don bass, the industrial region where separatists backed by moscow have been fighting ukrainian troops for 8 years. with all these pictures, released by the russian defense ministry show its heavy artillery firing at ukrainian positions with the frontline, constantly shifting ukraine's defense chiefs as a counter offensive could soon begin to push russian forces away from key cities. if that succeeds, it would be a further blow to vladimir putin's territorial ambitions. and his hopes of taking over large areas of ukraine will find ledge led ridges still with as frank. where do you think russia stands militarily 2 and a half months into the war in ukraine? well, millet channel a suit or start to just look at 3 levels of war. you've got the tactical, which is the combo level. you have the operational, which is the theater level,

that's to say the dog bass operational perhaps even the whole country, then you've got strategic, which is the international dynamics. and so let's look 1st at the tactical. so right now, as of yesterday, the russians have made some gains down and on bus very slow. they both down haven't been managed to exploit any breakthroughs. yesterday they did capture time class and it was have been asked for a long time. but otherwise, not so much north of that round clock if ukrainians are making major gains, they're pushing that out. russian, artillery back and russian forces back away from that. but at the operational level, of course, what you had is defeat in the north, which i've already heard mentioned that being held, obviously in the southeast. and that's likely to remain the case, particularly because it's very clear that the more is not being wrapped up. as we expected, finally, strategically the ground strategic level. well, there total disaster from the russians. the whole purpose was to one of the about

purpose is was to stop the advancing data. now you've got to the more formidable countries in europe. joining nato who previously neutral certainly will. and probably sweden later this year, perhaps next year. so all told to out of 10, you mentioned there about the huge losses that russia is facing. but the russian people haven't really heard that much about those to faith about their losses that they've been was mentioned today did sort of touch on it in this page is today really about boosting public? miranda? thank yes, i think so. it looks to me that they're trying to feed back into that stream of i'm going to hesitate to say victim hood, but that's this constant drumbeat for decades, not 2 or 3 decades, only really of the great part of the war. and that's going to go on to, to sustain support. but also surprisingly the speech of just reflecting no mention there, of course are no mention of my all. no mentioned the staff members defending crimea

all focused on the don't last. very interesting. on that. i mean, you mentioned that earlier that they really focused on the dumbass and they did what do you think that signifies? i think it signifies. i mean, you know, this is, this is 1st blush, but it seems to me that it, it, so again, playing back into the initial de one story which was, were there to defend the russian people have been victimized that weren't down and limiting, perhaps the objectives and almost an acknowledgement that we're not going to achieve very much of where i expected at least or not. i would have been surprised to hear that there were going to be some announcements if it's not an exception and then new republics or something, i wouldn't get that either. so it's, i think the scaling back of the strategic objectives doesn't mean it's going. it was going to be shorter by any means. it just means that the declared object is not been limited. interesting, they did mention though, that russia,

he did mention that russia has enough high tech weaponry to fight this war. western intelligence begs to differ on that. how do you say it is? well, since the star is big questions as to the stocks of russian precision weapons and only this morning, the british defense intelligence given little briefing every day. it what it is, it's a synthesis of what people are working on over the last couple of weeks and teams will write their own. so this is so today it was about about exactly that, rebecca, you, you hate. what they're saying is that russia, russia is running short of these weapons of precision guided weapons to say bad news from them because the cravings are being reinforced. but the russian deputy prime minister today said russia is developing new generation hypersonic missiles. and what do you make of that? well, we saw the deployment of kings on the conflict about 6 weeks ago. quite curious, really. it's not immediately immediately clear that there was successful deployment . yeah, sure they are. the one on the parade was

a relatively new ballistic missile. we see no other weapons as far as i'm aware to you. but of course, every major countries developing you happens all the time. and of course, especially the united states, russia is not in any field that i can think of except possibly hypersonic this on the americans going to jump those by way, by generation in the next couple of years. so yes, they are developing new weapons, but no, we shouldn't be too concerned about the at the moment. and now we spoke briefly about morale of the russian people. but what about morale in the military? we've had a lot in recent months about how low that is in the russian military. can you tell us a bit about that and how they'll continue to fight this potentially protracted war? there are 3 components to fighting. was this the conceptual, which is what you know, the idea is the detail, which is the case. and then it's a moral component which is tomorrow, at the, the professionalism and so forth. and all you need all of them to succeed. now over the last 2 months or nearly way over 2 months now, russians have sustained,

serious defeats, no, so on the ground is going to be, is going to be unfamiliar with that in fact, to be intimately familiar. and again, the assessment of western intelligence, which is reasonably even handed on this, is that the russians about real problems, their units having cycled in and out at least ukrainians reported last week and known, denied this. i think that whole division was pulled out of the line because of a mold by the pregnancy. i came down to the don bus where the fonts are stored. so morale is clearly not high and low to sustain morale. of course, you need to have a reason to fight and also some degree of success. and they're not seeing that at them on the country that seem to be. if you're a soldier, you been shoved around. you've lost a lot of comrades. the 62nd memorial minute silence course for every one second, 300 russian soldiers died. have died so far and a lot more dying today. no, so on the front line is going to be on the way of this. however, what we ought to say is, of course, ukrainians are taking casualties too,

but the difference is they know what they're fighting for and it looks as if they're prevailing very different situation. all right, frank, thanks very much for that military intelligence analyst, frank lead, which my pleasure. rebecca let cross. ivan antony, emily corresponded kinene by her. is enrica killian? what was the most important message from peyton for you? well, i think the most important message is that he didn't actually call out a big mobilization of russian reservists, or if he didn't institute a draft either. this is what many people were expecting, especially as a russian forces took massive losses in ukraine and western military analysts. estimate around $15000.00, about 25 percent of russia's battalion, tactical groups. these are the smallest with self sufficient units in the russian military have been effectively been made, made combat,

obsolete really. so yeah, russia is running out of infantry. this is what the military analysts are saying and this is why the operation and don boss also seems to be going sluggish. it seems to be their last big push. so that's why many people were expecting a mobilization. but of course for putting a mobilization would also be opening pandora's box in essence. so putting surprises again by not doing what we thought he might do you think that's an indication that pick noise and mobilization may not be very popular at time? oh, of course a mobilization would be problematic, especially in the big cities in moscow on st. petersburg. and what was definitely possible was a partial mobilization in the, in the countryside in the rural areas where people would be more likely to to go and fight. but yes, when i took it today, the spectacle, the parade,

and the speech by president vladimir paid and seemed to be aimed at fee mongering as well. do you think he succeeded that well, putting sorted out with victory day a mean victory day is one of the most important days in russia as being a, haven't been in russia extensively myself and talking to people. some people would even say it's more important than christmas. it's definitely the most important on religious holiday. and this is because, as aaron said earlier, the soviet union took massive losses in the 2nd world war 27000000 soviet citizens died. and just to put that in perspective, that's about 3 times the current population of greece, or about one 3rd of the population of u. k. of the u. k. so at the great patriotic war, as it known is known in russia and the trauma that was instilled was kind of like the social glue that held the soviet union together. and this also was, is applicable to russia as well, which came forth from the disintegration of the soviet union. but hootin took this

memory of the soviet union that everybody can agree on. that was a massive trauma. and he and he hijacked it and framed it, it really replacing what was nazi germany with ukraine saying ukraine, the key ukrainians are fascists, are nazis and they are now the bodies. and this is of course absurd. it's been debunked to being crane and government is not a not to government. the president is of jewish descent and but i think this is exactly what we expected to hear from him. and it's what he said. how much did today's parade, or did to rec, today's event, differ from previous years? mean you mentioned obviously the introduction of ukraine is a topic there, but you know how much, how different was to day compared to other years. well, one of the things that really stood out this year was that there were no foreign guests, not even president lucas shanker from beller. bruce, who is a close ally to vladimir putin and it the victory days really being framed as

a russian victory. when it was not, it was the soviet victory. the soviet union was a multi ethnic state or with multiple republics, or a big, heavy part of the fighting was actually in ukraine in bella. ruth and of course also the western russia and in the war the ukrainians also had a massive sacrifice causes the brewery outs. really, all people of the soviet union am. 2 and this year it was framed to be a yeah, a russian russian victory and killing. why do you think it is that that belive races. lucas shank, him, wasn't there today. that is quite surprising, isn't it? i, i don't, i don't know exactly. i think i can't look into the mind of who, teens, but i think he really wanted to focus on, on russia, on that this russian war and ukraine as well. and it's a kind of twist,

the narrative and the memory of this, of the 2nd world war. and the common, the common gratian really of the losses that every family took. the sacrifices that were given by every family and apply that to, to ukraine. i feel like i may know the answer to this question, but i'm gonna, i'm gonna gauge your answer any way or how is this invasion the war in ukraine being viewed where you are in riga? well, i think most people here are horrified especially that the ethnic latvians are horrified . it's a bit more difficult to say exactly how the russian population sees it. about one 4th of for the luncheon population is of russian to spend, or the descent or a russian speaking. when you walk through riga, you really see ukrainian flags on rebuilding on every single building. it looks like the crane and embassy, but a few weeks ago we were in dog fields, which is in the eastern country in this,

in this town. it's the 2nd largest city in lexia. russians are the majority, and you don't see any ukrainian flags really. and that difference really stood out, so i would say the country as a brit divided here, or i did a really corresponding kid in by a speaking to us from rig. thanks very much for that. thank you. and it's turned to ukraine. now, in danbury correspondent manufacture is standing by force in the capital cave. funny russian forces have been under pressure to give potent something he can celebrate for russia's victory day, something he can take back to the russian people. how do you gauge this speech? what do you think that might have been today? you really wonder what that will be or has been already? because if you look at all these as trucks across ukraine over the weekend, so many all battery attacks. you really wonder, it cannot be that simply bonding

a school, for example, into hans in a body hold. or if they've got that small village, daniel, to ask region that this is something that they want to present as a victory. these are civilians, about 90 of them estimated have been sheltering in the schools. so they've been already through a lot trying to look for some safety in a region that have really shoved for weeks now. and it appears that 6 of those 90 people have been killed. sooty of them came out of the rubble and you really want that just how could they even make it out alive if you look at the pictures. so it's really unclear just what kind of victorian over what rush you wants to prevent present as they are gathering down the reps playing a jubilant atmosphere. and as we have heard, our colleague evaluating their, they're changing to read the narrative, these they may, 9th, actually stands for soviet union victory over now to germany, world war 2. but the narrative is really a change or on the to, to present the form of victory over what russia goals is. nazi ukraine,

when he suddenly didn't seem to have the glory prize that he may have hoped for today on victory day. now, fanny, let's, if we move to the, the conflict as it stands, the fight for the aisd rages on. what's the latest from the front lines that it's very difficult to establish a picture due to lack of independent information and sources day but suit and the especially today there is a focus on model you pull of that town that's been in the focus now for a while, because you have to know about 100000 people are still in that town. and apparently they can only leave their homes if they have permission from russia because the russians control most of this town except for that as of steel plan. so really, the question is just rather than having shunning seeing play out over the course of that would already a multiple, but that's going to be intensifying around and in, at that plant as of steel plants. now the soldiers inside the active soldiers inside, they say they're not going to the saw. they are going to defend this plant,

which is basic to the last hold out ukraine and hold out a multiple what also they are calling on humanitarian assistance here to take the wounded soldiers out. it's a very emotionally charged day today, may, 9th, as it's unclear and so unpredictable what the russia playbook looks like when it comes to the attacks today on ukraine. and if an egg love talk about referendums, a new referendums in areas and the don bass and her song, can you tell us anything about that? and the legitimacy of those if you look back on his story, crimea was an axe in 2014 also they, there was a referendum that observe is called shebra friend and basically, and it looks like that this is going to be sort of the playbook there. also for places like have so on for example, which is also a key porto town in the south. we have to look at this keyboard hotels because they are like the economic vein of ukraine. if you advance here, you basically control

a pause if ukraine important parts of your brain and in have so for example, they want to introduce a ruble, a to z. the transition phase is already i started a couple of days ago. so yes, as soon as you have referendums, you can of course, then say the people wanted the russian control, even though it is our friend. and of course i happening on the very different circumstances. because if you ask the people of a certain town, according to the ukraine, you praying in constitution, you have to actually ask all people of ukraine and not just certain citizens of a parts of ukraine. funny, you're in cave, the capital authorities have been wanting residence in the capital to brace for more or more strikes, particularly over this time is victory day time. how is it at them in the moment, at the moment, rather in cave it's, it's definitely more chance compared to our previous weeks. and also the time you spent year building up to they went up on february 24th. the war began. you really

feel like something else is on the air. and in fact, the advisor for the interior ministry just warrant again today, repeating the warnings already. we have heard over the course of the weekend by president zelinski, that people should take those air a siren seriously look for shelter, do not ignore them because unfortunately, in fact, that was the case by so many people here on the ground. as they seemingly become accustomed to these daily threats and in a way, try to go about the daily lives. but when he comes to today, and as i say, it's a very emotionally charged a. everyone in ukraine is on high alert. what he's going to happen. what kind of air strikes and where? so people are more cautious and are on alert honey, thank you very much for that update of the correspond. funny fashion in case for us daily report and tilton is still in the studio here with me. and i just wanted to get your final words on pigeons,

bates to dave to mont victory day. were you surprised by anything? was this something he said that you weren't expecting? or perhaps something you were expecting that he didn't say? well, i mean we, i think a lot of people were surprised that we didn't see that call for a general mobilization that did seem to view the signals coming out of western intelligent circles. basically saying that russia would declare a complete war against ukraine. we didn't see that instead, what we saw was a lot of spinning, basically a lot of p r control. basically vladimir putin trying to refrain this war saying that the victims are the aggressors and aggressive victims. basically saying that this war is, is russia defending its own territory, russia, defending its sphere of influence. again, i said we had to do exactly. he said that we had absolutely no choice in the matter . our hands were tied. we were only doing what we need to basically survive. and again, tying it into that historic struggle from the soviet union against the nazis. basically, it's a complete reversal of the facts on the ground and seem to me to be really kind of an indication that vladimir prudence is going to stick to his guns. said that this

is going to be a long conflict, a conflict that isn't going to be over in a couple of weeks. it's going to be pushing the months and maybe next year as well . and basically saying that to the russian people stick by me, we have to do is we have absolutely no choice. i mean, it is for those who are kind of hoping that there would be a quick resolution to this conflict. it seems to be very, very bad. news today, if you read into what vladimir couldn't had to say today, what do you think for the, for the war, do you do therefore status along the track to conflict, but perhaps not an escalation. as such. do you think he's going to just push on with those aims to take the south and the east? well, as some of our colleagues were saying, there does seem to be that the focus is mostly on the dumbass, mostly on the eastern parts of the country. while i do believe that putin was really hoping to, to key of who's really hoping to take the ukrainian capital, i think that they've moved back in terms of their goals. and what's also a little bit telling is it seems or quite tight lipped about their military goals moving forward. and i think that's a tacit admission that they're not having the type of progress that they were

hoping for and expecting for. and also, they don't really seem to be capable of seeing what they're going to be able to do moving forward. so it does seem to be at least unintentionally a tacit admission that the military is not having these successes that they expected hoped for, and probably needed to be honest. i certainly has been mixed messaging coming from the russian side. but do you think that's perhaps that they want to kind of have a gotcha moment of catching people by surprise? what do you think that is actually, as you say, the fact that they are not, they basically failing. they're not able to, well, when it comes to russian frame, you know, of a lot of political events. there's often this idea of sham or noise where basically they like to throw as much as many different reputations as possible to just kind of keep people guessing. i don't think that's what they're doing here instead, i really do think that's just an admission that they're not having the progress that they want in need. and they don't want to have a situation where they can be called out and said, look, you promise you're going to take care of 3 days ago. where is that success? i think at this point, it's more of an admission that they're in a long, protracted conflict and will be for a long period of time. and by, you know,

kind of keeping their cards close to their vest that also prevents some of those nagging opposition. voices inside rush itself from raising their finger and saying, look, look you promises would be over quite quickly or i, and thank you. stay with us. we will be coming back to you shortly. you are watching j. w news for those. just joining us, russian president vladimir putin has praised his military for fighting his war on ukraine and val to push on with the invasion in a major address in moscow. russia is mocking its annual victory day putting on a parade as part of its celebration of its 1945 victory in world war 2. with the show of military might, didn't tell thousands of troops in moscow's red square. the rush it was fighting against naziism in ukraine, couldn't use his speech at the parade to again blame western countries for provoking his attack on ukraine. he falsely claimed countries were planning to invade rush.