shall right to feel more frightened than before. find out until the boys. chocolate to the point. next on t w. never. we got some hot tips for your bucket list. ah romantic corner chat hotspot for me. check, and some great cultural memorials to boot d w. travel off we go to sweden and finland both say they want to abandon decades of neutrality to join the nato military alliance. the decision comes at a crucial moment in the war. in ukraine. images of ukrainian fight is many, horribly wounded, being evacuated from the as of steel work to marry you paul, have gone around the world and view of russia's brutal onslaught in that city and

elsewhere. it's no wonder perhaps at sweden and finland, a seeking fast track membership of nato. however, that move could potentially be blocked by alliance member turkey. so will enlargement come and what impact might it have? on to the point we ask, knocking on putins back door is nato really threatening russia with? well, thanks very much in the for joining us here on to the point where my studio guests this time round our jessica berlin from the german marshall fund. her time in a culture editor in chief of decoder dot org and the historian christiane aust. hold, welcome all 3. thank you very, very much for being here. not like to begin with jessica. take off with your views . weaver. we've spoken a couple times recently here on the show and i had the impression initially that you quite confident that this caught this conflict,

this awful war would die down relatively quickly. i now sense that your more despondent about that and you are more concerned about the long term picture. well i, i certainly never thought that this would be a short war. but one thing has been made very clear in the past months that ukraine is fighting for freedom in europe. as though it were a full fledged member of the, your nato, their resistance and their tactical brilliance has been remarkable, as well as the resilience of the people, the political leadership. and so one thing is clear, the war will not, and with a russian victory. ok. so tell me a call to your is your introducing remarks? might want more focus on telling us about your organization. what does it get up to? what kind of for me? well, dakota is a platform. i'm translating independent, russian and pollution journalism into german. so opening this discourse to

a german speaking audience, and we do so also with the help of scientists and who are writing texts on certain persons phenomena. and mentioned in those text for a german audience who doesn't know any, would you give us a brief example? for example, we lately translated many articles about the question of guilt. this is really a huge debate. now it amongst russian liberals and also amongst russian independent journalists and yet, and we were covering this debate via curating text and which translating them into germany. but of course many, many things mentioned they are like the 2nd church in war of whatever are not so common to a german read us. so we have articles written from scientists. actually, he just wrote is there is a very great speakers about this topic. and yet they explained to

a german reader what this is about and what's like that, that is up to date in science. you too were both noting when you were talking about the notion of guilt, why we're noting so vigorously. ah, you know, i think guild is a philosophical category 1st of all and can be also discussed in a court. yeah. but russia is imposing a system of violence right now in ukraine. and it has imposed this kind of system in chechnya as well. and that's why you won't want to talk about guilt. i think russia is fully guilty. it wants to crush the ukranian state. it wants to enslaved its people, and that's why it must be stopped. this is a very dire vision. indeed, you, your, your historian, of russia for me that suggest that there must have been a moment in your life, i guess where you sort of fell in love with russia,

where you can fascinated by it. have you fallen out of love with russia? yes. i think this is exactly the right description. i haven't been laughing. i love in russia for more than 20 years. my wife is russian, but i'm after the big getting of the war, everything stopped my feelings towards russia turned into its opposite. i am criticizing russian policy very, very, very often right now. and i am deeply convinced that this system, the system, imposed by vladimir putin has no future and it must be stuck. ok, pretty groom stuff. we are letting me put it has threatened to violent action. if the decision is taken to give accession to nato, to sweden and finland, or even in the case of their applying for nato membership, that violent response hasn't come from boot in so far. but let's find out a little bit about the history that is the background to the latest filaments right

now. ah, it's been more than 200 years since we last waged war against napoleon. since then military neutrality has been both a high priority for the country. and its state policy. now, sweden is following finland, fleet, and ditching this approach to join nato. as a member of nato, sweden will not only achieve more security, but also contribute to more security. we cannot trust any more that there will be a peaceful future. next to russia with our own, that's why we're making the decisions that joining nato. it's act of peace that there would ever again be war. in finance, in the future, vinland was invaded by the soviet union in the so called winter war from 1939 to 940. despite a strong resistance, the small country had to sign a peace treaty dictated by moscow, which resulted in finland, coordinating its foreign policy with the kremlin for decades. now,

nita was edging even closer to russia all the way up to its 1300 kilometer border with finland. is nato's northern expansion, a threat to russia? well, let me give that question to jessica or is, is it a threat to the doors and expansion to a rush or an interest? absolutely not. finland and sweden are joining nato, not because they're interested in attacking russia, but because they're afraid of attack from russia. nato's the defense of alliance, and the fact that you chose is defensive lines and of store a defense of alliance. yes, this is, this is in the charter of nato. this is what nato is for common defense and for sweden and finland. the fact that they have abandoned decades of policy towards russia and neutrality in the nato, russia oz network. this is a clear sign of failure. also,

of putin stated goals and ames and with his invasion of ukraine. he said this was a response against expansion of nato, but he's actually just made clear why this defensive alliance is still necessary. we talked about gil, this is the nato expansion. is that a completely non guilty? is it an innocent activity, an innocent political policy that has been taking place for so long? i think the expansion of nato, as a reaction to the wish wishes of the new members. i mean that they came to the nature and said, we would like to be part of the club. it was not the nato that said, you must be part of it. and that's why i think, am the russian narrative of being surrounded by the nature of being even threatened that it is a myth, is a necessary myth in order to to keep on line if you will need to go with that. yeah, absolutely. go with that. and this is also what many russian commentator said already before. actually that am with this war put in,

wanted put in said that we will show russians and ukrainians. i one nation. but what does the world see now? ukraine is proving the whole would, that it stands together as a nation against russia and the aggressor. and the other thing put, putting, wanted to do with this war is to keep the nato away, the natural, aggression or whatever. and what is happening to the nato came as close as never before to russia. and this is why what many russian commentators predicted. and they, they said right from the beginning, this war is a huge mistake. and. and now as the reaction of putting is, it seems relatively mild. yeah. and he started a war against ukraine who's now to membership, was in the far, far future. and now when sweden and finland and knocking right on the door of the

nato, he says, yeah, it doesn't hurt, it's not a threat, but please be aware at so, and they say this proves that it was never about a ukraine, not joining natalie natal. this war it was always about. yeah, loose gimme a, the russian world, the imperial or wish of russia. and who, who simply doesn't want ukraine to be a cultural and political independence state. moving west, let me add something to that, please. you know what to put in all the kremlin has published an essay written by vladimir putin last year. the woodson and june, 2021. yet. we is torrance. we were like, ok, there's a president who wrote an essay. never mind, no problem. but after the beginning of the war, the se came out as what it was. it is an ideological manifest of

a guy who wants to redraw the map and put in said they're very clearly that there cannot be an independent ukrainian state as a political entity. which is somehow not connected to russia, so he deeply believes that ukrainian people are russian. people talk about the total tree you, nation, belarus, ukraine, russia. and that's why he has to show them who they really are. and he's actually doing this by force. okay, listen, we're talking about learning my bruton and then his response to valid. this is elements as a scandinavian bid to join nato as to stir his here a little bit of his reaction to that move, which was pretty unexpected. there we go. clear issued vinland sweden doors with russia has no problems with these countries from u. e, but therefore it were any mito expansion involving these countries does not pose a direct threat to us. however,

expansion of military infrastructure to these areas will undoubtedly provoke backlash from us. what we do, yeah. i mean there are those who say we should always take vladimir putin at his word. there are those who say we should never take blood, he may voted out his word. what's your response to that comment when you hear a do take, do you believe what he's saying? well, i think, as i said before, this reaction seems quite what mild. and i think he knows that he, he actually doesn't have any chance. of course he's crying now he's calling his buddy and turkey. he will wizard adderly ann who also has yet some, some interest in meeting him and he to and, and am trying dead to, to, to, to yet to meet interests. but no, i think yeah, it, it actually he does know what to do. he simply, he knows he has to accept it. well. okay. the his deputy foreign minister saga re

upped gov came out and told russian news agencies there is another great mistake being made here. with far reaching consequences. so there is some very, very hard talking going on there. that's more what we would have would have expected. what are those consequences or what may they be? actually, i'm not quite sure about it. i mean, what can he do? does he want to start another war where the russian forces are being defeated almost bailey? i mean, what we're seeing right now in ukraine, embarrassing somehow, in the myth that we have all it c m bought in the west at the soviet union and its army and the russian through ation will solve strong men, came out to be wrong, and the sinners winter war proved it already when they had so big a loss isn't casual. do you say the said the setback has been embarrassing? have loaded my boy to but he is still in the driving seat in the car. he's the person where we're trying to work out where, what, what, what, what his map has on it and where is leading us. you know, of course, i don't think that he has met. i don't think that he am initially planned to

conquer, if you will, of ukraine within 5 days. they would put the russian flag on my done. everything would be over. as we know it didn't work out. and now i think they really don't know where they want to go. they cannot, ma'am, let's say m. conklin, ukraine. they're not capable of it. so at least they will try to incorporate the east and south and regions of the country into the russian federation. but i am quite sure that they start to see that it's maybe not even possible for them to do that. so that makes him more dangerous him, but there is no plan which they are a leading to sirius vladimir putin. as many people say his own worst enemy has, he has he maneuvered himself into a position where people are too loyal, too scared to actually tell him the truth. it looks like it. vladimir putin has completely isolated himself from any kind of practical criticism. there were even fears at the beginning of the war that he didn't know when wasn't getting the

information of the reality of the battle ground defeats that the troops on the russian troops are facing. so i now i'm almost 3 months into the war. it seems clear that he knows that they're losing, and the fact that he gave such a tepid response to finland and sweden's of nato application under scores that he knows there's nothing he can do even if he wanted to move troops to the finish border and to threaten them, they're not available. the logistics of the russian military have been shown to be incredibly weak. and they're already tied up in ukraine and they could not, at this point, even even try to threaten finland or sweden. but i think also more broadly on this move by finland and sweden shows how this war is already going to reshape the entire security landscape in europe and beyond. this is in terms of its long term impact, already going to be a world war of sorts, not in terms necessarily of the reach of the military conflict,

but in terms of the impact in reshaping the global order. christine, could you, can you tell us more brevet? i basically agree on that. i'm russia has highly overestimated itself. and i think the key for understanding this is, what am i putting himself? let him put in. consider his colleagues in the whist lose. they, they are talking about anything which seems not to be so important phone for him. and he was completely convinced that there would not be a strong reaction. i'm quite sure if, if he had known that there will be sanctions imposed on russia, that there would be, am a strong natural speaking with one voice he never had and make the decision made the decision to, to attack ukraine and that are in that respect, the west got it all wrong because they were sending signals of vulnerability. yes,

exactly. remember for example, a bonus counselor when, when the chance of germany, he will amend and the 1st day the weeks he came out with announcement like ok, what we're not going to do. we're not going to do this, that if you will listen to me, she had a question on a. he said that am putting some something like a fuck. he's an agent, he's a, he's a even gangster. he said, and an aggressive guy approaches you and you start to tell him what you won't do. this is not very, very smart, actually. so what i want to say is basically that we as a west, we need to stay strong. we need to communicate what we are going to do if and we need to draw red lines. and that's why the decision of sweden filling them for wanting to johnson h was completely consequently, right? well, let's go from one strong man as, as it is sometimes said to another. another chapter for edwin is the leader of an established nato member that has been doing all made can to profit from the current

situation. here's what it sounds like. it's rich. sweden is a breeding ground for terrorist organizations. her she then own j. most importantly, we cannot see yes to need a membership for those who impose sanctions on turkey. in the midst of this process on nato, nato is a security organization. nice to meet her tongue rich have to have her to unblock the bid by the to scandinavian notions to get access in today. so oh, i don't think so. i think, i mean, he, his trying now to, i don't know to, to negotiate with, with nato, of course, to. yeah. to add it to 2. see if it's, if there are any common interests, also maybe with protein or was nato and to, to,

to, to profit from this whole debated process. but he cannot stop it. and actually in russia, nobody's really very surprised that putin is now meeting his buddy added leanne. but no one thinks that this will change anything in the end. on the contrary, and for the 1st time and public television, there was a former military general and speaking out 2ww people audience. and who said, actually that this war is lost, that we russia has to stop this war. of course, this is only a short moment now, and we need many of those moments and we need it. we need shall go to the, to the fence minister to tell, put in this. but still, there is already this moment, there are over a, these moments of criticism, criticism within russia. and i think did it is because there's a huge concern amongst some military experts who dare to

speak out that this war is lost and that it has to stop. what, what can you tell his crusade you, if you have your contacts to russia, what are people saying to each other? how k g, how, how cautious are they being at this point in time? you know, i think at home, people quite know quite well what's going or what is happening right now. yeah. that there is no denise education and all of this stuff. this is a war for, of course they cannot talk about this and public putting in put himself in post. i'm very, very rude laws. i mean, if you are going to talk about it and criticize it, can go to jail 15 years and rush of something new. so the people basically know what's going to happen, but it is somehow part of the tradition not to say publicly. you indicated earlier because of your experience in chechnya, your real expertise written a lot about it. what does, what does that, how does that help us to understand what's going on now, what might happen next? i think i'm looking at chechnya somehow i can take

a look at the future maybe because the system of violence i was talking about in the 1st minutes before a show could be impulse and ukraine as well. and this would mean a horrible, horrible time in terrell. being imposed by state in the south on these few crane, russia, we sometimes described as an evil empire. is that reduce or is that useful in any way? i mean is polemics, isn't it? i mean, it was reagan who said that the southern union was the empire evil. i mean, okay, it's quite funny, but it shouldn't be. let's say an argument for any 70 percent you recently i saw a caught my eye that you wrote to sex where you said states are neither good nor evil. all they do is to pursue that vital interest. yes, that's true, but we have to, we have to see that vladimir putin actually is wilt to do this by the use of force . and this makes everything completely different. that's why russia party isn't

what would you say jessica, about what's going on in the minds of people in, in russia, the moment as i see the did they do, we know that they did to people properly know about what's going on with scandinavian deal with the extension of nato, like i would, i would put forward that she arising about what's going on in the heads of the russian people. not even really the question or the issue at hand right now. right now, the only thing that matters in the immediacy of this war is swift victory for ukraine is. this is what we need to focus our political energy on our economic power on what's the timeline? we refer to sort of swift, well action to where we're moving at this feet of war. nobody can anticipate what is going to happen next. and the point is swift means as soon as possible. there's not a deadline on it. but what we do know is that the quicker the supply chains can

move to deliver european and american weapons to ukraine, to enable the military to resupply. also to enable ukrainian green and agricultural exports to leave the country to keep medical supplies coming in. we need to make absolutely clear to russia, that this is a losing battle, and that the longer the war goes on, the more russia will suffer. and basically incentivize russia deter russia from continuing and get them to draw back. that needs to be the goal. and i fear that the, the trauma and the shame and the guilt of having been the aggressor nation, that russia and the russian people will feel we and germany understand this very well. even a, almost 80 years after the war. we still grapple with, with the legacy of our crimes in world war 2 and when the but when the bombs have stopped, then we can have this conversation of how did the russians feel and how do we

somehow bring them back into the international community. but for, for me both as a citizen and as an analyst, i think the focus needs to be on ukrainian victory. that's absolutely right because it's really hard to tell what do russians now. i mean, we have surveys, but who would speak out frankly, in a authoritarian system. we have huge propaganda in this information that not only since the war started, but it started a long time before already. so i think it's really hard to tell what people thing and if you ask them on the street, they will answer anything. they hurt in the news the day before am. but maybe when you sit in the kitchen or when you're right and with messenger like signal or whatever. and they might tell you something completely different. and so it's kind of a black box what people and russia really thing, i think, but still we must see that there are many people support including of course, i mean i recently saw em. clifton, the russian media, they said something like,

oh maria paul was not destroyed by the russian army was destroyed by retreating nazis, and many people obviously seemed to believe this and em. how can it come on under this episode? of course, if they do not believe, even if they don't believe it, they, it does mean they belief what western media is telling them. so a short word this war has to stop with if, if the war was going to have been stopped by the russian people rising up and protesting that would have happened months ago. we know that's not going to happen . so we need to focus on the ukrainians fight. great stuff. all 3 of you. thanks very much for being here today. we've been discussing is nato really frightening. russia 3 new table. so, you know, i think thanks for joining us and go look forward to seeing you next. i rambunctious. bad.

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