a south a mountain is going to spend the rest of her life behind bars for murdering her 3 daughter. with pirate psychosis is an awful illness. postpartum is a nasty mothers nightmare. starts june 4th on d. w. now into its 2nd months, the war in ukraine has failed to give russia the quick victory of warranty. and there are signs of growing discontent among the political and security elite. back in moscow, a small band of investigative journalists managed to pierce the veil of secrecy around those officials. among them, i'm dre sold batter,

founder and editor of the tour of website, which tracks rushes intelligence services. he's my guest this week from london. how worried russia spies about the progress of the war? people inside are not really happy. it was a ways of war is going. and they blame just one guy, was you mention of that. so who is most likely to turn against who tune and why? how long did he blame others for the setbacks to the invasion? he ordered. is anyone waiting in the wings to take over if he stumbles? and what are the chances of that camp putin in the long term survive this? do think? i don't think so. all that and more on conflict with andrew, so that of welcome to complex zone. thank you for having me. for a long time, you and some of your colleagues have maintained extraordinary contact with

whistleblowers in the russian security services. you implied recently that failures by russia's army causing cracks in russia's leadership. how serious in your view are those cracks while others? correct was the start of his war by and talk in his own people. 2 and be see him a child can, here's a for the intelligence agency that he placed on the house arrest to f as b junior, all domestic agency, a box for an intelligence range in charge of the situation ukraine than it was. that was a national guard. and the zip you had of the national guard was forced to retire and he was just 45 years old. so yeah, it doesn't look really good. and it sounds really, really different from the p. this was our budget report and had and that caused a lot of confusion inside of the security services. and people in start are not

really happy because the way the war is going. and they blame just one guy. why doesn't he risk turning some of them into powerful enemies against him? after all, is a pretty ruthless system, isn't it? yes it is. but the thing is bad about russian security agencies and the army. they do not have a tradition tool. conspire to be honest. the last time the russian military tried to have some sort of code that was probably in the 19th century where 5, if father bore bolt off this embrace the nation 25 and the didn't go well for them . the russian security services, all this controls the army of us. all this is brain. i was the military content that isn't one of the biggest department of the f as b, and they have their own people m provide in every military department and never

military units. so for the military, it's not actually an option, it's also not an option for the security services, because what the nor poochie and just for his own security here as to security agents just. and they just that the protection person that if you were pushing though, who's loyalty, do you think you could now count on unconditionally? i think his personal security services. he has the service of the protection of the president. these people are close to him and also his, he has is the federal protection service. again, this people are both tockets if provides and protection for him. and for high level officials. and usually these people are very low to him. well, they'll be inside those in the system. people in top positions who are looking at the poor performance of the army, looking at this huge economic backlash from the west that's about to hit them and

saying, we can't survive this. it's all gone too far. you talk to some of russia spies, how worried are they about the progress of the war and, and the reaction to it in the west? something they don't seem to have factored in? well, yes, they are war, but not because of the ra yet. when you say ready, ready, in what way psychologic be ready already in terms of all organizational movements. what, what is that read it's? it's really difficult for them psychologically. and organizational lead psychological because now we have in the rest of security services, people who grew up and met the careers and the one president and probably on the one director of the f b. because the guy who is now is in charge, he has been around since 2007 with that means that you have a junior ration of,

of officers who have no experience without the people. i mean the father leaders, their political struggles. they grew up thinking that the president would be forever, and that i would say narrow, it's based thinking and that horizon they, when you talk to them, they usually talk about fed department, maybe about the unit, but never about the service and never about the country. they do not have b s, b, guys, yes. about the future and most of the concerns about themselves. so psychological, it's a really difficult for are going to sessional, as i said, just to build and none the ground organization inside was would be really a huge challenge because they have this big problem of mistrust inside of the security services. so you have middle level officers distrusting the general and general destruction. they, subordinates, how, why are these people inside the security service about losing their privileges and

their money? and the perks because putting has helped to create a john talk chrissy in russia. hasn't he institution's lives corruption in the police and security service has been demick for years, has net yes or the straw box and then falls in at 60 in i'll be, they've been living in a slightly different reality. put on stripped to f. s b and other security services of the right to travel abroad. so they all ready law, some of a privileges. they also, they do not have a disability rights to have property abroad. so based on the some sort of not depression, but some, some sort of pressure from the president quite some time. so they have to buy their loyalty. doesn't to with something yes. yes, absolutely. yeah. they have been joined good salaries and all that. but it means

that fan not feeling themselves independent, they are that instrument. that is, that was made very clear by puts and so you can see them. and every criminal case against political opposition was a rush of the lease. but they're not actin independently. whatever happens with putin, there is no sign of any liberal faction waiting in the wings to take over. is there none whatsoever? not? it doesn't exist. and to be honest events, i hope that says, rationale garza now my b while rebell just because they that put on the sections all, it's not a really option here. these people because they lost their contracts, waves of where some years ago, and they were given help by the government, by military contracts. now, many of them became part of the russian military industrial complex. and that makes them even more dependent on the kremlin and to change. ready looking at the repression that's been going on now for some time and obviously has been stepped up

during the war. we have what? 15000 people so far arrested on the streets, beatings, widespread intimidation, long prison sentences. are you hearing any qualms at all from the intelligence services that this is going to father? soviet style repression is perhaps no longer sustainable in 2022. not to hear that i'm going to rate people inside just security services. got convinced that that there was a lot of best young again because they had this big idea that all the things in russia happened before because of their lucel's. and there has been a big fear, but something like 970 and mice one day repeats itself. in russia, and they have biz bis obsession has their own revolution. the problem that lucian is, but in they opinion, evolution was started by

a small bunch of amy grass, not by big political party. that is why they are convinced. but when you to suppress all kinds of political activity, just no matter how big it is, because we're not behind the crack down the new crack down on alex in the valley. the opposition politician, for instance, in the extra 9 years that he's been given in jail, other likely to be more show trials like his on the way. i expect more shot trials, but not against the political opposition because it's all, reggie non exist them in the country, but you can expect some big criminal investigations against the russian, the late because these days is the consult with the loyalty of russian bureaucracy. and so you can expect some more governance, more ministers, a sentence out, and that is why the secret service is concerned. because when they see that they're

now under attack. so for a moment about putins rhetoric, keys, spoken of traitors and scum in society, and the need for self purification, is he trying to divert blame from himself and on to those who haven't supported his war while he tries to, to rely on bis feelings, shared by many as a country that russia is, this is for, for us. and that has been all this under some sort of, from the west. and the biggest, how far the west, in this case provided by liberals in the country. so actually what is which is doing right now is encouraging people to leave the country. remember him, his famous line that the russians people will split, ah, this traitors out of a mouth just like a flea, i think. but what's his expression?

so actually he's encouraging people to leave and the b. c bad already mobile, $70000.00 specialists left to come check. not to mention intelligence. jordan, listen activists. this pushing out of people who don't support the war. how does that messaging go down with the public at large? the majority are still packing the war. unfortunately, yes. and they think that ah, actually it may be good for the country. some sort of cleansing of the country. because of his liberal fe joy, they bought a good way to fly and all of us, and now it's time door protect our country. so we have this deep feelings of a busy, just hold trust them putting knows how to blow it. what about when the public finds out the scale of the casualties which haven't yet been revealed to them? just as they found out when the soviets were in afghanistan,

soldiers mothers have shown themselves in the past to be a pretty formidable voice in russian society. having 1st of all of its kind of activity as far as their goodness, ation, you mention that most of soldiers is suppressed, but forages. so it's not actually safe for the mothers door. the cold is ivan, is ation and block for how the other problem is that pushing actually he understood something about the war in chechnya, that for instance, is better not to have soldiers drafted and big speeches sent to the wall. that is why you see all this people now taken prisoners and ukraine, and dam mostly from siberia, from distant regions. and some for russia like more to go there. and you say, care about the while. if you have some people killed and you have

a relative in the small town in. and though they're soft costs, but that would be a problem only for the small community and not for just like moscow or some pictures book. but they were sensitive enough about the casualties and when comes so most proud of the newspaper printed some figures briefly on march the 22nd and then raised them figures which suggested the army had lost nearly 10000 men with more than 16000 injured. they were very worried about that. what they cover up the casualties on the latest figures provided last week was 1351 people killed. but again, of course it's very far from reality. yes. you absolutely right. we got we didn't know that spot too. much surprise, it didn't trigger any reaction in the russian society. so you have his mother, you have a relative, quiet word, but that's all about it. and to be honest,

the most astonishing part of that is these relatives and mothers, they are mostly worked about the songs, but they're not what they but what their songs doing in your brain. so base is astonishing. lack of sympathy for the ukrainians, which to me is very shocking because every single family, all not single look at every 2nd family in russia, has some relatives in your brain. what went wrong with the progress of the war with the organisation of the war last week? ego gac inform, a colonel and the f. s. b. counterintelligence said the war in ukraine was based on a catastrophic pe incorrect assessment of ukraine's forces. the enemy was underestimated in every aspect. if that's true, why was the intelligence so poor? well, because it was not only bought but intelligence, it was also bought the consumer of his intelligence. everybody knows,

including people inside of the s s b that pollution. all this has had strong opinions about ukraine and about the functionality or all this functionality of the ukrainian space. and we know that he is right, not because he has his strong rep in years. so he's going to listen to any country intelligence. is that what you're saying? absolutely, and it's not it bob's held above that. so the russian intelligence try to tell him that, look, you would be great at the vast grid at the flowers. it's about a very cynical approach and assumption that the gradient stage and ukrainian people will just give up. the state would collapse immediately. and we just need to all to impose our wheel. and that's it. what happened to the huge investments russia is supposed to have made in its forces in recent years. we now hear from western intelligence that claims that the numbers huge numbers of russian missiles simply

don't work. don't fly straight, don't explode on impact. what happened was the money or siphoned off when corrupt deals by, by people connected to the military. well, i think that yes, the performance of the russian army is not very impressive, but i will blame not hold his army, but also political leadership. these war was very different from all the previous, which was in many respects, including the way it's actually lat. i'm in the chain of command. even now is still unclear. an older previous, which is worse. you have this think it's called the joint rebel forces. and usually you have a commander and you know, his name is that was public. i mean, you're all of this new to name of a general us ultimately in charge of that situation on the battlefield. we've seen the generals killed on the battlefield, haven't we? that's pretty unusual, isn't it?

to have janet was actually there. absolutely, and i think the problem is that we do not have this gender come on right now. so we do not know who's in charge, and that is why you have all this problem with communications. we have current nation, and that is why as a general they think that we need to go, there's a frontline to see by themselves and they get killed. so it's not really good. and tom saw how the whole thing is organized, but political element, i think still plays a huge role in that. for instance, we do not understand militarily speaking, why we have the national guard troops sent into ukraine. these people are trained to deal with us on the streets, not to be engaged, and the punk battles. and now, well now actually for a month, b, c columns of these people sent in the ukraine, get killed and darned. and nevertheless,

the provide some explanation to the public and the day i saw that last big fall is the rest of the mill tray. one blake and talking to some program to me. yeah. trying to explain what's been wrong. all might be trying to say that everything is i still according to plan. and now of a say, yes, it was all about done boss. not about t f r and we are not going to storm will be seated. it's all about uncertain cjis and then about from cleansing. so of a change in rhetoric, obviously suggested comic and this organization doesn't it? confusion, well not panic but confusion that for claire. but to be honest, i also, i do not quite understand how, which i can get out of this claim in some sort of victory. he needs that he needs to provide some victory pro. there's a russian and was a world because it's all about just stinging and. 2 but to be honest,

i don't quite see what it might be, because even if say he has some sort of agreement that the landscape, the sanctions i still, that economy is ruined. and for what i don't talking about a korean style partition, is that a possibility that he might accept that? yes, but again, it would not be a we'll win for, for russia because he raised the stakes. he said, but we need to cleanse ukraine of the nazis and all that we need then you deal with nater is not getting back. so again, i don't quite understand what his and gay yet president biden's words in warsaw the weekend, supposedly off the cuff to the fact that putin can't remain in power. how do you think that will have been understood by the various factions inside the system? back in russia, those who may be thinking,

but also putins time should be coming to an end while that is wants strike can difference from what we see now from what we so our and falls into full g. and when we saw on next and the station of me back then as a russian broker say, there was an army as a russian security is the all on the same page. they all support future. they believe that there was a right think that everybody got excited and unfortunately a lot of population also believe, but it was the right thing to do. now is a big shift. so people might still believe that something should be done with the ukraine, but they think that the way it was done was not very good one and they blame one guy was in a position. and i think it's quite significant, very briefly because we're running out of time can put in in the long term. survive this, do you think?

i don't think so. and i so that's good to have you on the program. thanks very much . thank you. ah ah, with

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d w. ah, see asia then of love is guide. this time a lot of them poor proud is bring people together in a culturally diverse city painting with a human form that is so different. atheist, eat with him in d. w, with question of whether the next crisis will come. but only when and how the media will deal with it. how can we stay focused on what is important?

shaping tomorrow now, exploring opportunities for media professionals in times of crisis. the global media for june 2020 to your ticket. now welcome to the dark side where intelligence agencies are pulling the strings. there was a before 911 and an after 911. he says, after $911.00, the clubs came off. where organized crime rules were conglomerates make their own laws? what's true, what's vague? it doesn't matter. the only criteria is what we'll hook people up. we shed light on the opaque world. who's behind the benefits. and why are they a threat to us all opaque worlds this week on de double you?

ah, ah ah, this is the w news live from burly russian forces on the verge of taken the key city of soviet order next, as they step up their offensive across the east of ukraine. also coming off, we meet the ukrainian volunteers, defending a village close to the front line and here from residence, how it feels to be in the line of russian fire. and she has been all the throne for longer than any other monarch in british history. we look at how the u. k.

celebrate in queen.