did a welcome partner in china. russia's more on ukraine. could china hold the cards, join us on to the point to that point. next on d w. if you ever have to cover up a murder, the best way is to make it look like an accident. raring to me, you've never read a book like this. do you literature list under germany must reads ah, as western sanctions take a toll on russia's economy, it's looking elsewhere for markets and finding a welcome partner in china. with trade between the 2 country surging russian foreign minister survey law says he says inexhaustible potential in their relationship. can new commercial ties with china compensate for the one severed by

the west, could and would be ging seek to influence russia's more on ukraine. does china hold the card? that's our question today. with hello and welcome to to the point. here are our guests felix lee writes about the global economy for the berlin based daily newspaper, the tots, and previously served us the papers. china correspondent, matthew carnage. name is politicos, chief europe correspondent, and based here in berlin and natal. yes. your length of a is a colleague working with d. w. news and also with d. w's, russia desk. and she formerly worked in our moscow bureau, felix, some people are both in china and russia have been using some pretty flowery rhetoric

to describe these new ties. in fact, a chinese foreign ministry spokesman recently called it a model for the world. what does he mean by that? exactly, and how would you assess the significance of this bond? well, of course, china wants to take advantage of the conflict and tries to like, raw shore of the new friendship and officially outwardly. of course, china is not, are not following the western sanctions are china blamed the need to for, for the war, for the escalation. but interesting, when you look deep, there are no more more, more ties also economy, medically speaking, of course, china imports a little bit more gas because gas from russia. now it's cheap. but if you look at

the financial sector or the technology where russia hopes to get the more technology from china, there's not much happening. i see that a lot of chinese tech firms actually are leaving russia because for them. of course, the western mark is more important than the russian, and they are afraid that that might the u. s. and the western countries would sanction eyes, also, chinese companies of the have to close ties to russia. and i want to come back to that a little bit later, matthew, china and russia announced this new friendship as the winter olympics were getting under way in beijing. and they talked about it. they are as a know limits partnership. do you take that at face value, or do you expect that china would, under certain circumstances seek to influence russia's actions in ukraine? well, it's worth remembering that both of these countries are very skilled in the art of propaganda and have a very long history of,

of using it to their advantage. and i think that china wouldn't hesitate to try and influence russia if it, if it saw fit. and i think at this meeting, it was clear that putin sought a green light from she or told him what he had in mind for ukraine, and that the chinese leadership agreed to it. thinking as putting did that it would be a very quick operation. and that after a few days, they would all be celebrating victory. that, of course, hasn't come to pass. and that's how you're not long ago, china and russia actually conducted joint military exercises. how concerned should the west be about these ties? well, i think the milton exercises, as well as what we've hearing love rules are the same issue to the western audience as to the outside world that russia is now switching to the east, which of the china we don't need your, you know, western trade. we are well off without it,

we have chinese parkers. but if we look in how this message comes down to a domestic audience, this is totally different story. i think we go in, russia are not considering themselves and, you know, very, very close ties with china. and there is never been this idea that russia is an eastern countries from power. there's either russia with the west or his base base own. so don't think it comes down really good in the domestic audience that we now chinese, our main friend and partner. i think people are very much afraid of the chinese influence there. and what it can bring that at the assets is going to be cheaper. rational being bought by their chinese companies or something that and then if china will lie and 100 percent, and if russia will lie, 100 percent of china, that will be new dependence, freight, felix, what do we know about how the chinese people see this, this relationship to they welcome the new friendship with russia. not really there . traditionally, there was never big trust between these 2 countries in soviet times are russia,

although this supposed to be sisters, countries her. but moscow looked down on b, g, and malta tongue couldn't bear it. and that's why they broke away, there was a big broke in their relationship. and this mistrust, distrust is still happening. so i mean, china is wanting, trying to take advantage of the conflict, but there is no real close ties and nor trust it. actually, china, her head had a big product in central asia with the new, so growth and interesting. it wasn't going so much to russia. they were focusing on the other countries cause austin and ukraine. and this plan is not working any more, was this war happening? so actually, if you look close, china, not too happy that this war is lasting for already so long. and who knows until it

and trade between china and russia had in fact been on the rise even prior to the announcement at the winter olympics. but the fact is, this is no partnership of equals china is by far russia's most important trading partner. moscow sends out a 5th of it's export volume to china. but it is not among china's top 10 trading partners. this doesn't seem to bother russia's foreign minister euros, you know, eurasia is becoming the most promising region in the world. we must take advantage of this development and we should not rely on the u. s. dollar or swift, but develop our own payment system. so just deal with the dutch film. so sub genius you however, europe and the us are the main buyers of chinese goods. so beijing as trying not to

alienate such important training partners by showing too much support for putins war against ukraine. we're europe or the u. s to impose economic sanctions on china, the top world exporter would lose billions. and when money is at stake, beijing's friendship with putin evidently has limits. is the russian chinese alliance just for show. let me fast that question straight on a to matthew and i, you know, it's, it's clear what rushes hoping to get from this relationship or what's in it for china. well, one thing that's in it is, is cheap energy. and this is really something that does is worth remembering that china needs energy from outside of china in order to feed its economy. it has an insatiable appetite for oil and gas, which russia has in large quantities. and i think this is something that china will

want from russia for many decades to com. i don't think they want to make themselves dependent on russia in the same way. some countries in europe have done not to name any names, but this is certainly a role that russia will continue to play for china and also for the west. but that's all that russia has to offer. this is russia's real weakness, is that it's become effectively a gas station for asia and for especially europe. natalia china is an energy hungry country. there is no doubt about that. but the fact is that it, the fact that there are limits to the degree which chinese energy imports can actually compensate for the cut off of western per the import. yeah, that's true. and here are several points. first of all, because of the war, the prices have gone up and is also not very good for china. any other country that wants to buy lot of energy for russia. and europe was

a big market. so i don't think china or a china and india any other countries together will, can compensate for amount of energy and will now we're talking about the oil, it will have a ban on it. but i think the gas is still discussing may be coming in next month or a year. and it was compensates and 100 percent for the losses in this regard. and also the cost of transporting an oil to, or, or gas for that matter to and other countries are higher because an oil tanker can reach you in any like $4.00 days, 5 days, whether to go channel in there will be 40 days. so it's like 10 times as long journey, 10 times as much ships and the costs will rise. and i think this countries and we'll see this as an opportunity today, and we'll ask russia for discounts for gas. so in that sense, i don't think russia will actually gain some think it will get new markets, but i don't think it will gain economically from that. and let me ask you about russian tech imports,

because those have actually been it precisely because the russian industrial economy is under developed to russian. russians have been importing a lot of high tech products from the west. can china make up for that? i think russia is actually looking to china and other asian countries like health korea to feel this gap because then technology, a lot of technology in russia is from the west. and if this is a serious issue, it's easy for many industries like from for the aircraft, for instance, and for many plan. so i think there is big hopes i'm looking at china. but as we've already talked about, some companies, some tech companies out leaving russia not announcing this big but for instance, while way is closing the shops and some other companies change companies and, and delivering that products. russia, maybe they don't do this as western countries really shutting the door and saying we going away that might all of that. but, and they also seeing this as a risk market for them. so i think and business interests might reveal here. let's

talk about that. felix, because a verbal lee at least china has rejected the western sanctions, but it seems that chinese companies are nonetheless complying with them. and even as you mentioned, as natalia mentioned, being proactive about that. so what's going on and what's behind that? the simple reason is the western markets is much, much more important for china then for russia, europe. and the us are the 2 biggest market for chinese. and so they don't want to risk that. so that's a simple, i'm pretty much the reason why and russia is a, is a small market. it's sort of a satisfaction for the chinese government. of course, the former arrival is now getting more and more dependent. but chinese don't want to risk their market. so the western market, so that's

a simple reason. matthew, as the war began, predictions were rife that it would spur a new division of the world into cold air, a cold war era style trading blocks. do you think that is what's happening here? and how far does that division actually go? i don't think it is happening. i think what's happening is that russia has become very isolated and it's going to depend increasingly on china, on india as well. these are countries that haven't sanctioned russia, there is no appetite. those we've just heard from mr. lee that for, for china to put its relations with other parts of the world at risk for chinese companies in order to continue to supply the russian market. because it's just, it's not big enough. it's not interesting enough for them. so i think this is going to be a major challenge for russia going forward to find countries that are really

willing to, to, to, to trade with it. no holds barred as, as was the case before. and let me just ask you about something that was mentioned in the film, namely the idea that this china russian axis represents a dollar free zone, as it, as it would, as it were. and could actually spur the decline of the dollar as a, the world's reserve currency. do you think we're seeing that happening? short answer is no, we're not seeing it happen again. the russian economy is just much too small to really force that kind of change even together. with the chinese, there's too much capital around the world invested in dollars and i don't see any, any movement and other countries to really want to move away from the dollar, whether in the middle east or in latin america, certainly not in north america. so, you know, i think this is definitely wishful thinking on the part of the russians fil is. can

you tell us how you see a genes trade offs or the way that it would balance economic as opposed to strategic considerations? i'm thinking, for example, what it means to china, that ukraine, which is you mentioned had and a good trading partner for china, is now having its economy completely destroyed. is this something that you think china views with equanimity, china for a little bit off course? not only a little bit his worried because i mean, wheat production ukraine. china is very dependent on read imports from all over the world, but, and ukraine was one of the biggest provider. so this is a big problem. prices in china also are right, is rising. and this is the risk what the chinese government maybe at the beginning of the war haven't thought through, but is now becoming much more and more

a problem because nothing, the communist leader be a few, nothing else than social instability. and when prices are rising, also in china bet miked erbie earth threat also to, to their leadership. so it hasn't been all thought through em. but more and more china is getting word of the longer bit of this war. last, let's in fact take a look at those global implications of russia's war against ukraine. it has sent fuel and food prices. soaring, hunger crisis is looming. and the world bank recently warned of a sharp, slow down in growth with drastic implications for the world economy on which china depends. the oil embargo, for example, has led to higher prices at gas stations and supermarkets in europe. there is increasing anxiety about uncontrolled inflation. the blockage of ukrainian

grain transport is also causing the cost of bread to rise in europe and a food crisis in africa. talk, i said we're not preventing the export of ukrainian grain, but there are many export rates. ukraine can export through the black sea port that controls such as desiree with russia is solely responsible for these foods, cries russia alone, despite the kremlin stern boon of flies and disinformation. furthermore, the russian army has mind many fields in ukraine and destroyed farms. who is responsible for the food crisis. let me pass that question straight on to natalia, coupled with the question other whether we can believe russian claims that a c corridor for grain exports will soon be reopened. and so just term yesterday and russian foreign minister was in turkey and talked about this about the

possibility of resolving this foot situation. and i think for russia, this would crisis as well as the war in ukraine as well as many other things before . is this battle of narratives, while the western narrative against russian narrative and in rush, narrative rush is not responsible for the food crisis. obviously this is the ukraine is not providing at the grain and rushes and prepared there to and to ensure their safety to this. and i think also what's where she's trying to reach out of the situation is they ease off sanctions. they want to trade off of this to there and let us let west leave some of the sanctions and then we'll, we'll get the grant pass. and interestingly enough, i think this narrative em has actually resonated with some of the countries, especially in their african continent, because these are the countries that i actually affected greatly by the food for problem. and, and i think passed last week early to have standing all was in moscow and met with, put in about and different issues, but also food security. i think right now we see in some an african countries,

also this narrative coming down that, you know, maybe it's not only russia's fault, maybe in old and nato or the, the way director to, to rush us aggression is also to blame. so they see it increasingly as their as a narrative competition. so to say, and we'll see like which narrative will with, let's get mass is take on that on which narrative will win. it's the famous battle for hearts and minds. and if we look at the united nations general assembly vote on the war in ukraine, there were a number of countries that abstained and or even voted against condemning russia. and a number of them will be affected by grain shortages and fuel price rises. so what do you think? well, i think, i think what people are facing a famine, you know, they'll do whatever they need to in order to, to get to grain. that doesn't mean that they don't know who's responsible here. and

i think it's, it's, it's, it's pretty, it's pretty simple. it's really not, not that complicated if you, except that russia started this war without provocation, then you have to accept that russia is also responsible for the looming grain shortage here. it could resolve the problem by withdrawing from ukraine and ending the war and everything would, would open up again. so i understand that african leaders are doing everything they can to, to get food for their people and ensure that green supplies. but i don't think that the president of senegal or anyone else, really believes that vladimir putin is responsible for this crisis. and do you think there is a short term prospect of green exports actually going out? or do you think these promises on this, on the part of russia are empty? well, i think this is where, where china could play an important role as well. if they were to use to leverage

they have with moscow to pressure them. and maybe they already are that could explain these initiatives by level and others to try at least publicly. we don't know if they're serious about it, but if they follow through on this to, to open the ports to open a desk in particular to allow great out of there. then i think, you know, there is a chance that you could at least see some improvement, but you have to remember that much of the grain is still stuck in silos in the interior of ukraine. it's not in the ports and that could really be the major crisis head, physics shortages, not only of grain which you also mentioned, but definitely affect china, but also shortages of the fuel cooking oil are going to have a major impact in asia. do you think all of that will influence china to put pressure on russia? what circumstances would it take for china to say to put in ok time for this thing

to end. ok, so far. there are no signs of china through the plane. an active role in a diplomatic role, but i think they are worried, especially other countries who provided oil. they also shut down their markets like indonesia or a lot of countries are worried that they're so much shorter, so they don't export. and yeah, and so i think her, yes, china might play a more active role. but what they can achieve, i have doubts. i think the influence beijing's insulins on to tune the relationship is not so close that china can me put him to stop the war, and this would be the only result to also source of crisis. you said it's not about the, the ports it's, it's that the whole country is destroyed by the war. and so only put in can stop

that. and i'm not sure if china is able to make him stop and tell you what do you think, how amenable would vladimir putin, b to advice or even pressure from his new friend? she, well, i don't think you will be amenable to any pressure actually, because i think he's gone very far in this in the war. and i think this ukraine question this ukraine problem, as he himself said, was, it's a very core of his worldview. and the view of russia, his vision for himself, so i don't think and you know, tennis advisor and pressure would make him stop right now without achieving something that he can fell back home as a victory. because as i think so many red lines have been crossed and going to this war right now. so now it's, you know, too late to make up and say, yeah, we don't really mean that, you know, let us be friends to get again. i don't think it's possible, matthew,

how could or should the west a tree seek to drive a wedge between china and russia? and is there any way for the us to use china to get that influence on putting? well, i think the use of sanctions, or the threat of sanctions against some chinese sectors. chinese companies could be an effective tool, but it's a little bit tricky because you would sort of risk retaliation on, on the part of the, of the chinese. but i think generally speaking that the u. s. can use, it's very deep commercial ties with china to try and nudge the chinese in the right direction. here. i think that europe can do the same thing. certainly, germany has maybe better relations with china are definitely better relations with china than the united states, and also very deep trading relationships. so i think if, if the west in general were to try and convince china that this war is not in

china's interest, it's nobody's interest and they should do whatever they can to push russia to end the war and, and get out of ukraine. felix, i'm hearing companies based here in germany and elsewhere in europe saying that they're actually not only reassessing ties to russia, but also ties to china. not only because of the war, but also because of the new ties with, between china and russia as well as the lockdown in shanghai, the 0 cove it policy and of course the league files and jin chang. do you think that could have an effect on how close john is willing to snuggle with russia? i'm not sure about that because the problem, a lot of german companies all also have china doesn't rely on them so much anymore as it used to be. and you can feel that volkswagen company, long time, very well come in china. not to welcome any more because china know to build better

in e vehicle. so i'm not sure the danger is that i think a lot of german companies realized also with the war in russia to dependent on one country authority to re count countries is the threat. and this has to change that . tell you one word. our title asked, does china hold the cards? i guess at this point it might be to thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being with us. thanks to you out there for turning in to see if there's a ah, with

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