a specific goal to build the best optical instruments in the world. ah little did he know that devices bearing his name would one day feature monday. through science into new realms. the rise of a global company with 175 years ice store to june 19th on the w rushes, grinding on slots in eastern ukraine, is taking a bloody toll. ukraine's president says, this will go down in history as one of the most brutal battles. europe has seen, with russian forces bearing down on the key city of seattle, dannetta here was receiving top you leaders. and all the while turkey's president

seeks to cast himself as mediator while simultaneously putting pressure on nato. to day we ask turkey's double dealing is our to one trying to blackmail the west with hello and welcome to to the point. it is a pleasure to introduce our guests. daniel gala is editor in chief of the magazine, zenith and director of the thank tank candid foundation, also a great pleasure to welcome gustav castillo. he is senior policy fellow at the berlin office of the european council on foreign relations. and jessica berlin is with us. she's founder and managing director of the strategic analysis consultancy coast dropped. and jessica, if i may,

i'd like to start out with the current situation in eastern ukraine military experts say that more than a 100 ukrainian soldiers are dying every day in what is become a grinding war of attrition. thousands of civilians are trapped now in the epicenter in the city of sienna, ne, vieira de next. what if anything could, and this was shed is a negotiated solution even conceivable. at this point, unfortunately not the only thing that can end this on slot is increased artillery power for the ukrainian side. the russian military will only respond to deterrence . they know that they can steam roll ahead with their superior artillery fire power and superior air power. and simply inch by inch, meter by meter village by village crush, the ukrainian military's resistance, and as bravely as the ukrainians have fought and are fighting every day. they simply do not have the hardware to stand up to the russian army. and so this is why

the calls for immediate and vast delivery of heavy weapons to ukraine is so critical because every day counts at this point, good to have, let me ask you, ukraine's president has actually been defying a russian ultimatum that he surrender in done yet. and says that only ukrainian victory could provide the basis for any form of settlement. is that a realistic goal or is it wishful thinking? well, the problem is without, without a lifeline in the worst, in terms of munitions, in terms of recruitment of unfortunately, a ukrainian victory will will not comment or ukraine's arms industry has been destroyed or by and large, oh, there is no chance to make good for losses in the war, if one does not get weapons for mobile negotiated settlement, i think is

a big illusion in the west or any thing that would fall short of driving russia back or to the borders to the administrative boundaries before the before february. 24th will be seen by russia as a partial victory and a state from where to push further. once russia has regrouped, re armed re gummed, we saw the scene with the previous minsk iteration of ceasefire. first of all, it wasn't a ceasefire. second of all, it just pause the war and made russia onslaught. now, if the russians would get that now they will try again is 34 years. i want to come back to those latter points. but let me 1st ask daniel, also about these latest appeals that we are hearing from president is the lensky. he's basically saying what we've just heard. the only way that you can win this war

is with massive additional deliveries of happy weapons. and he's kind for artillery . how with there is battle tanks, drones, the us has just announced an additional $1000000000.00 in security supply. should europe follow suit and certainly your europe should follow. the only problem is like, do you really find the will in the, among the political leaders in europe to take on the long term consequences. of course the, the europeans are very much like when they look at the, at the american position, the seller. okay. you are far away, you're far away from the situation, but we would we bear the consequences or like after the ukrainians, we are the next ones to bear the consequences. so do conclude from that, that, that's why you should lead. and that's why you should, i should do more than the americans, or that's why you should still hope for a negotiated are, for, for, for, for, for what you call an illusion and negotiated solution. i think one should take on putting strategy in a certain way, which is at the same time,

negotiate and fight and deliver weapons because only trusting only of relying on negotiations, diplomatic negotiations as i totally agree. i don't see that, but not keeping the associations out of sight and, and not completely abandoning the diplomatic track. as i said, i think something that is, that is recommended, and it's also something that the europeans in one way or the other apply. if i can respond to that negotiations, the door should always be open. absolutely. but the point is flooding a futon will only come to the negotiating table, willing to back down, willing to compromise, and give ukraine and the west something we want. if he is facing los, if he's facing deterrence right now, the fact that we have leaders, we have president my call and chancellor shoulds making phone calls to putin calling for dialogue. this is feeding, right into put in strategy. and furthermore,

when we talk about public opinion and the notion of what's at stake, what's going to happen to us if we deliver more heavy weapons? the problem is actually the reverse. if russia wins this war, if russia is allowed to defeat ukraine to murder, tens of thousands, if not hundreds, of thousands of more people, innocent civilians and an next an entire country that was free and independent in european. if they're allowed to do this and emerged from this victorious the costs geopolitically economically for europe and the rest of the world will be disastrous . it will be much, much worse if we let russia when at the cost of ukraine and near term a perceived benefit or less stress for us than if we consequently help ukraine to defeat this threat. and to say that this can no longer happen in europe. this is the 21st century and might, is no longer making, right? those phone calls that you mentioned between chancellor schultz, emanuel mac,

the french president and vladimir putin have in fact, been strongly criticized by a number of those countries closest allies. germany has been accused of equivocating on its own support for ukraine, promising heavy weapons, but failing to deliver as chancellor schultz was preparing to travel to key of president lensky issued a new appeal. lambert, that even though we need assurances from chancellor sholtes that germany supports ukraine, he and his government have to make a decision. you or they should not try to find a balance between ukraine and they relationship with russia or greener even knows them as a cisco for the right. ah, good stuff. would you say that chancellor schultz has exercised excessive caution? and if so, why, what do you think are his motives?

ah, yes, he has exercised excessive caution. ah, and i mean, some of the rational are of these calls understandable to kind of see where the russians are, what their interests are, what they would be willing to do or not to do. the problem is, of course, if you negotiate with a counterpart, especially with a former intelligence officer that they will of course not negotiate in good faith . and they will not tell you the truth. they will also target to probe you to manipulate you to tell you things from that a day expect that put in expect or to a make sholtes do what he wants. and on this game put in is far more successful than all of shots. are there the whole issue off world war 3 and the scale fresh and new stats psychological warfare and schultz has completely fallen for the russian trap. ah, and it is still something dad put in has or is to do is shaping sholtes minds when he comes to the risks and consequences of his walk. this is

exactly why are eastern europeans half a call. this calls are to be dangerous. they have not criticized, for example, angela miracles cause to put in, in the same way because she coming from eastern germany as much more experience reading, former communist intelligence characters, which is part of your skill portfolio you need if you reach out to people like putting them jump in hand, i am no expert on psychology, nor in russia. but what i hear that say from political circles in paris and in building is that what's, what's, what's one of the reasons why they're keeping this line of communication is because they want to feel the temperature of put into mental health. it's not just about about trying to swash him to talking to something or to, to, to talk him into compromise. i think a german government intelligence and security experts are worried about how

14 is going to go. and if they, if, and if they cut this, this, this rope, this line of communication, they are worried that he might go even further. and they would be taken by surprise . i don't know if that is a logical assessment of the situation, but at least i think it is totally understandable and not defending choices or my cost position and put it. i know that my car for a long time had the illusion that he could. she could read, put in, and all his political advisors were like, you're delusional. you're not going to do this in your week in face of this man. but nevertheless, i totally understand that as a head of state, you considered your obligation not to abandon the path of diplomacy with the country that owns possesses. i don't know, 6300 nuclear war has it is going to use them or not. is another question and that's it, isn't it? oh, i saw you nodding when co stuff was talking essentially about putting playing the fear card. and that fear card includes very lightly veiled threats of the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. how should the west respond when you hear emmanuel

mac are saying after one of these phone calls, we shouldn't humiliate put in. would you say, jessica, that is the right response. vladimir putin has already. she melinda himself. first and foremost, she thought this war was going to be over in 3 days. well, guess what? it's almost 4 months in and ukraine is still standing and standing strong. so, any notion of saving putin's face is, is farcical. and honestly, when i heard michael make this statements about not humiliating putin, i had the sense that maybe it's about not humiliating miss him a call. he went on his very high profile diplomatic commission to moscow before the war began. said i'm going to sit down with ludovic putin and talk to him, make him see reason. well that didn't work. and, and it's exactly what go stuff was saying before. vladimir putin has a much better measure of the men in high office here in western europe. then our

leaders have of him, he's been in this game for a very long time. he's much more experienced in psy ops and uncle, logical operation, logical operations. yeah. i mean, our leaders have 0 experience in this. and this is a tactical weakness that russia is also playing with putting knows that the egos of our leaders can be manipulated for his ams. he also knows that the fears of our voters and our democracies are for him, a weapon he can use by spreading fear in the population. he can ensure that our democratic institutions and leaders have to respond to those fears. and the number one thing that our leaders in western europe would need to do to us watch those fears, is have a clear conversation with the public, with the people of germany, of france in all across europe, to help them understand why this is happening. what russia strategy is and what we're doing to counter it. but instead unfortunately, especially in the case of chancellor shots,

he walked right into the trap and he spread the fear himself even further. let me just briefly, if you would go staff come back to the situation in don bass and how it translates essentially into concrete tactical goals. so if this mantra that we often hear from e u in nato leaders, that ukraine cannot lose this war, that putin cannot win this war. what would that look like? territorially, are we talking about needing to push the russians back to the status quo ante on february 23rd, or are we talking about pushing them all the way out of crimea? for example, i'm actually pushing them back to february 23rd would be the minimum requirement to tell putin or to manifest the situation that i wore for aggression did not pay out anything short of that or is a partial territorial gain. and

a further improvement of russian position, a numerous russian leaders, both military and political already said that this is a struggle duck will be lead for decades to come. and it is a, a wall don't real, a b, real, how russia will have to lead over years. so they are predictable. they're performed in war and they tell us what they're gonna do. the problem is in, in your few people, listen. the problem is, of course, all these announcement, whether they're come from the yes nor from, from german politicians on sort of ukraine cannot be allowed to lose. this, unfortunately are for the time being in works only are the military recruitment, the hardwood in yamini mission to make this prediction. a reality is not there. the russians are firing $50000.00 rounds for tillery and all calibus per day. ukrainians have roughly 5 to 6000. they are still at their disposal. r

and d, the ammunition stalks are dwindling because their defense industries destroyed. and they have been in this industrial war of attrition for quite some time. if i hear presence that for, for, for the next month you have to so wife with $36000.00 rounds of ammunition. that's what ukraine fires in one week. i really and for launches from this country and for launches, lack countries. sorry. but that's a joke. so when i'm hearing from all of you, is that any comprehensive negotiated peace settlement for now is essentially impossible and illustrate nonetheless, there are particular aspects of this conflict on which mediation is very badly needed. and meanwhile, turkeys president has in fact been casting himself in the role of a potential mediator and seeking to further his own interests in the process. let's take a look domestically. things are not going well for president eric one and his

a k. p is monetary policy with artificially low interest rates is causing hyperinflation. putting many turks in financial danger, a year ahead of the next election. everyone and his party are at an all time low in the polls. so the turkish president is trying all the more urgently to shine in other areas. for example, in foreign policy, turkey wishes to be a mediator in the struggle to lift the russian naval blockade. since turkey controls the boss 1st, it controls the approach to the black sea and air to one has been blocking the accession of sweden and finland to nato for weeks above all, to press for concessions from its members, especially the u. s. on the one hand, he is allegedly concerned with certain american arms deliveries. but also with the possibility that the u. s. government might approve further military intervention in northern syria to force kurdish militias out of the border area. how successful

are edwin's attempts at blackmail? and let me put that question right on to and daniel and daniel, what is heir to one up to here? does he genuinely see his country as a global player, a global mediator? or is this driven by his own personal survival strategy? but both of course, look, turkey has a lot or edwin has a lot to wind from the situation. it provides a sort of a golden opportunity for him to stabilize his power base. but on the other hand, truck as a country has a luck to lose turkey's much closer to the, to the situation. geopolitically and the black sea than most of the european countries are either on knows if jess. jessica says our leaders cannot read fulton, i think, our honest, the one who comes the closest, his capacities in his personal experiences mind said to read booted. and we have

seen that he has a very ambivalent and, and in some way it's because a frantic relationship, friendship with putting because on all fronts and central asia, on the black sea in the middle east. turkey and, and, and russia arrivals, they are opponents or they have engaged in proxy warfare against each other. but they always found a way to balance out interest. and they take the other side's interest seriously. furthermore, i think the both leaders thinking in the concept of zones of influence, they consider that their states will have power and who are projecting power. and every one else has to shut up. so what europe rejects strongly, the idea that there is zones of russian interest is russian comfort zones that we have to respect, even though they violate the sovereignty of other nations. that is no problem for one. and whatever other one does when you, when you're asking if he's black, mailing the europeans, or he's, if he's black mailing the west for him. this is tough diplomacy. this is

international relations based on interest. it's not about black mailing. he has no feeling of guilt. and the turks would always hold against the europeans and the other nato states that they have been involved here before. they have provided drones to the ukrainians long before the russian assault happened. long before discussions about weapons deliveries with playing the sides, aren't they? because they don't have along with western sanctions, they don't come along with the sanction that turkey's own nato allies the put in place. well, you're selling drones to you the, the, the, it's true that they are not going along with, with western sanctions in general. but they are way cherry picking, but they have closed churches airspace for russian flights to syria. they have also said that they are going to apply the more true convention of on the streets, which allows them directly to block russian ships from the mediterranean. we're traveling to, to ukraine to get involved in the conflict, which it's tricky because on the one hand, the russians are allowed to return, of course, to their home basis. but theoretically, the turks can close the straits for russian ships. so the turks can, can do

a lot of harm to russian interests in the region, but they are also very vulnerable. and let's keep that in mind that for turkey in a way, this is also a geo political game of survival. not only for adeline himself. so on that basis, jessica, speaking of shipments, those green does blockaded. green shipments in ukrainian port time is running out a world food crisis is looming. and interestingly enough, could have very drastic repercussions precisely in the middle east, where certainly in the past spiking food, few private prices have caused political unrest against that backdrop. can you imagine our to one actually being the one to unlock this? oh, that would be the hope on, but it shouldn't. and needn't come only from add one use fake of add one holding the west potentially hostage with this blockage of grain exports. putin is holding

billions of people around the world who are food insecure hostage, especially in the middle east and africa. in parts of asia facing droughts and crop failures. this crisis will become a global crisis, and the casualties of russia's invasion of ukraine will explode into the millions through the indirect costs of this hunger crisis. and my hope really there would be to see more voices from the global self more countries and more leaders across africa, across asia and latin america in the middle east, standing up and saying, don't hold our people hostage, let the grain out and to put together, perhaps a flotilla of non nato members who are not parties to the conflict in any way to enable the grain to be transported safely out. and if russia blocks this, if russia does not allow the grain to be exported peacefully, then that says everything you need to know. and any of the russian propaganda that's trying to pin the food crisis on ukraine and the west would be shown to be

completely bollocks daniel, very briefly. that's very interesting. and on. and why do people in the so called global south not see it that way? that is, it's quite interesting. i mean, i don't have any statistics on the, on the, on the, on the opinion polls. but it seems that the leaders in major parts of africa and asia, south asia considered this war, a geopolitical conflict of interest between with the western russia for once they are not involved. but they can just like watch what happens and people don't in the, in the, in the global south seem to not very much know about the fact that russia has been reducing exports before the onset of the war. the china has been purchasing. basically everything that was on the market before the war. so based on the artificial intelligence models that probably told them that there is a risk of green shorter so they can capitalize on that. but it seems that the story that rush ourselves to african leaders according to which all this catastrophe is a result of sanctions and of russia means cut of the swift system. seems to play

very well. so either of these out it last week as a battle of narratives and it is very unclear who, why when that battle let yeah, let me bring in gustav essentially on how far the west should go in trying to make a deal. not only with put in but with air to one himself, heir to one is now apparently hoping that if he were to mediate on the green shipments, the turkey would receive cut rate prices on grain. he's also indicated that he thinks that russian demands that sanctions on brush should be partially lifted in response to any un blocking of the grain shipments is legitimate. so what should the west do in this situation? and also while turkey, while turkey, meanwhile, is holding up approval of swedish and finish membership in nato lot of cards out on this poker table. yes, and an owl should a willingness to go at least tacitly,

along with it, or is, is of cause and bowling off. so 1st and foremost on the grains and where you cream, sell them, or give them if to have the transport opportunity. and it's ukrainian grain, it's their grain. i think we shouldn't do in europe think that we can dispose it and redistributed. ah, the 2nd issue is that we need to find other means to export them. who are sustainably secure. there are some railroad lines that export it into poland and then into the baltic ports. but of course, freight about links. there are are slow down. there are other proposals to export them. why? although are ports constantine, romania, for example, that half port facilities to export to i'm store large amounts of drain. i think dr . stephanie over here can turkey broker such a solution is turkey an honest broker. now our title f

turkeys in this for turkey. and probably good to have an immediate and negotiator that represents his or her own interest because turkey has a lot to lose. so i'm a bit, let's hope the other one surprises us in a good way. thank you. thank all of you for being with us today. and thanks to you out there for tuning and c, a with

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