how do you want it? i love it. okay, then what go up put the pedal to the metal and let's ride. mm. on d, w o d, up to date, you don't miss our highlights. the d w program online. d, w dot com, highlights rushes retaliation against western sanctions is sparking a world wide crisis as food and fuel prices sore, putting the vulnerable at risk, rushes slash and gas deliveries to european countries, including germany in what one german liter calls an economic attack. citizens are tightening their belts as inflation surges. nowhere more so than in the global

south, where russia's blockade of grain shipments could plunge up to 50000000 people into famine. today we're asking no grain. no gas is scarcity. proteins, weapon of choice. ah hello and welcome to to the point. it's a great pleasure to introduce our guests then to lina fun debreto is european business and finance correspondent for the magazine, the economist and, and got him here. use a puff is my colleague here at d w. he works with d w russian desk, and it's a pleasure to welcome coming to us from ghana, virtual lea, professor queasy. i mean,

he is director at the coffee on an international peacekeeping training center in accra. welcome to you. and before i come to you dear guests, i would like for all of us to listen to a recent claim made by a vladimir putin that european and us sanctions, which he referred to as an economic blitzkrieg, are actually hurting the west more than russia. you thus learn more, you are using the european politicians have already dealt a serious blow to their own economy's company. we shortly. experts estimate that the total e losses from the sanctions next year could reach as much as $400000000000.00 us dollars do for you see what didn't. inflation in certain countries has her past 20 percent and vendor linna putting, went on to say that in fact, his government has stabilized russia's financial system. it's banking system. it's

trade relations. is he right? are the sanctions actually boomer ranking to hurt the countries that imposed the more than russia? well, of course he is exaggerating hugely, but there is the grain of truth and all that. so we are suffering because of the, you know, this situation because of the aggression, because of, you know, all the, the higher energy prices, higher food prices, all of that. so we are suffering. but eventually russia will suffer much more. so in that sense, he's wrong. what is eventually mean? i know that one economist, but he is a bit of an outlier has said that we could see a drop in russian growth or in russia's g, d, p of up to 12 percent this year. do you think that's right? i think that's absolutely plausible. so even, and that's a lot by itself as, as is really a lot and next year will be possibly even worse. because at the moment, for instance, germany is still depends for about 35 percent of its gas inputs on russia used to be 55 percent already down to $35.00 said eventually it wants to be completely

independent of russian gas. which means, you know, the payments to russia will dwindle to almost nothing. and that's makes a huge, has a huge impact on russia. glenmere, what are you hearing from friends and family in russia? do they say that life is back to normal? life is normal. there was no, no, any kinds of crazy brush. there was. inflation is on the rows and rows as well present, which doesn't mention that inflation and rush hour or 15 percent already. it doesn't play any in your all for him in the public opinion. there they have the public opinion, they're not completely under control. there is no panicking nor no panic hamster buying. no, nothing. there are some sort of just on medications in the rush and pharmacists, but it's basically all in their 1st suck wave of their, this invasion are especially immunity operation. there are some boarding is our so life is normal. and it's surprising. so one of the best because there hopefully the

sanctions, it'll be introducing some kind of new new atmosphere. interesting that domestic politics. it's not, doesn't happen then drilling. just tell us though, that that she and many others watching this situation do expect the situation to get worse in rush. won't that cause economic hardship for normal citizens? it might happen. but the question is, how long can reach terms long terms of sort of the yes, but we don't know how long this long term will be and how many ukrainians will die before the long term consequences will arrive in russia. so if it takes one year or more to direct sanctions during the russian society, what will happen to the ukraine in this period of time? the cost for us is absolutely huge because the sanctions are unique in the history event or such back a wide range of things in ever, in the history of the, of the best and politics. but at the same time, they were in the grand going on dog stops and is, has become

a war of attrition. crazy western leaders have repeated almost as a kind of mantra that sanctions are only sustainable if they hurt the country that's being sanctioned. more than those that impose the sanctions and they are friends and allies. so if you look at the international effects of western sanctions and russian retaliation, would you say we've reached the point at which the cost so essentially outweigh any advantages? nothing functions redeems, always have a tendency to hit of the mark. so where we to see that miss the po tenant has friends i being sanctioned by c lux reactions and freezing bank accounts. that is not really hitting the mark. the spinoff of the sanctions regime is that people who are not congest shelly, part of this wall. i'd be in affected barrett,

but let me make this point very clear that for those of us on this continent of africa, we think that the wall provides challenges. but i think with sophisticated leadership, the walk, it also provides opportunities for us in terms of much more effective. you know, i go court trial policies, much more credible supply chain in those systems. so yes, in the immediate table as blood you may have spoken about and they've been de leon also. it looks as if it does not have been that long term. i think the russians are going to suffer and noticed that the liquid opportunities for africa and it's needed to improve. yeah, i grew quite trans up like i want to drill deeper on the short term. and the fact is that even before russia attacked you crane, the world food program is warning that

a cascade of crisis is putting millions of people in mortal danger. now, as a result of blockaded grain shipments and searching prices, it's predicting a hunger crisis of unprecedented proportions. hungry, thirsty, and severely weakened. that's how millions of people feel in countries like kenya, ethiopia, and somalia, located in the horn of africa. 2000000 children just like this, little girl are at risk of starvation. glad i was very upset. am worried about her condition when she came to the hospital like she would die. there is no food as crops, dry up, and livestock die of thirst. east africa is experiencing its worst drought in 40 years on the fundamental issue in the somalian and the horn at the moment is the climate induced crisis, right? it's brown, with where the effects of the brain crisis come in is that the food prices and the fuel prices and others are heights up to

a point where we need more resources to secure what we would have secured before. prices are rising daily, including wheat a staple for many meals, especially for poor families. according to the un african countries import almost half of their wheat from ukraine and russia, the longer the war and ukraine in the russian blocky of the black sea port lasts, the scarcer grain will become in the greater need will increase. will the ukraine war caused people to starve? crazy? let me put that question directly to you. which countries and which groups would you say are most at risk? well, i think come, chris, that export immense amounts of grid. oh, reach from your credit will be at risk, but let me also see this countries which import but not under rent

is not the fundamental grid that africans each is ms school hong. it's about st. potatoes. it's about to play the tea. it's about cook or yeah, mr bar. yeah. this crisis must force african lead this to 10 round the agricultural policies. if our risk assessments had been wrecked and our lead death had listed when this was that, if african steve had said less, increased our midst production by 20 percent, it took just 3 to 4 months. for me to grow for street, it was to grow that we need to move beyond just narrative of africa union, a relationship of charity, where people should always give the continental this wall class corbett is giving a lot of african the desk. that the way to claim that the problems are from these 2

things that the hunger that challenges the poverty predicted the wall and pre detect, corbett, let them put in place the proper agricultural policies and we would need to treat it crazy. nonetheless, as you mentioned that before our report, there is a short term long term dilemma. here. do you think famine can still i think we've closed a certain threshold because it's clay between used probably about 90 percent of it and that collaborating juice challenge. challenge just relating to food insecurity, has been ongoing for the past 567 years, probably 10 years. i'd be that grab process that's now escalated and west and by a limited amount of inputs coming. in other words of angelina,

this war has become a crisis multiplier as it was. so tell us, if you would, how you see, you know, how we go forward on the matter of food shortages, the world food crowd program has now put forward a 5 point plan that it wants to g 7 to adopt. and in fact, the g 7 will be meeting next week under german leadership. and the 1st point in this program is as, as the world food program says, political solutions to an conflict now and relax the blockade of black sea ports. that is a very tall order. is it feasible? it is, it is of a tall order, but 1st of all, on the multiply effect. yes. so that crisis pre dated in the war and ukraine. so energy prices and food prices and you know, the whole problem of time of change, of course, all of that existed, even before russia invaded ukraine. but of course,

the invasion is made it much worse. so what can we do in the immediate future? of course we need to unblock those deliveries from ukraine. i mean, they're stuck in the ports and, and, you know, and, and that's a tragedy. even ukrainians cannot store anything anymore because all the storage facilities are full. so that is something we can do that that could help very quickly. and so the big challenge is to raise silos on the border for exactly. exactly and, and most importantly, to let the ships leave the port and the apparently there's one ship that left yesterday the port of maria pole, a turkish ship. and one doesn't know whether it was grains but, but anyway, so it's possible. but you know that it's part of the huge problem of the whole world registered across countries in the war. and grooms exports from the grooms on one small piece over huge converter, complex problem. and i'm afraid able to solve this problem. a part of the biggest,

bigger problem, richard, which is the volume crane. can i ask you that in a russia has claimed that in fact it's ukraine, that has put the minds outside of ukrainian black sea ports. and it also says there's nothing moscow can do about that. foreign minister love rob said, just recently that russia is willing to guarantee the safety of ukrainian ships that leave those ports. if it d mines the ports itself. and he also said russia would not take advantage of an unprotected ukrainian coast. do you believe any of those claims? i don't know. i don't know what to believe yet from which is coming from russian government because it's, you know, your experiences with russian filling. one thing from doing a lot of things, i would, i would look what will happen in the reality of what they're telling because they're going to the same time blaming russell for booking the boards and mining

them. so it's blame, game is a part of the war propaganda. basically on the both sides of the border it's, it's, it's are magical. it's just huge, huge for not for the african continent, but for the worked community to such. and this is the reason because g 7, so to find kind of solution to this foot crisis, which is common cause if the g 7, if the last show this it will be sharing that meeting were to call you up now and say what's the 1st thing we, we should do. what would you tell him? take a deep breath. i did i have, i have no idea. i have no idea basically because at some point you suit, i hope you will find that kind of way, although the whole situation. but it's the whole dynamic is very negative, right. and also the on the word pop up on the irrational under the grade book,

the rest on society such and it's not getting better. i'm afraid. crazy. i know you wanted to speak to that point. let me ask you to just also say a word about these blame narratives. we've talked about this several times on this program in recent weeks. the fact that put in blame you crane and the west for the looming hunger crisis. whereas the west says russia is using hunger as a weapon. now i know that donna was one of the countries that abstained when the un voted in april the un general assembly to condemn the russian invasion. it is abstained along with 57 other countries, many of them from the global south, which narrative would you say people there believes? well, i think people on the african continent and are beginning to create your own narrative that africa doesn't want to be seen as a humanitarian victim or a charity project. and that the continent and its members have an agency that is

necessary for both russia, ukraine, and the general western world. when the stand, there's a tendency for africa to be seen just as a can shop pat of the crisis in europe. and i think europe's misreading off mister putting fixed, this glorious acceptance of mister, put expanding the g 7, slapping him on de risk in 2014 way he bid the crimea and now studying the europeans as saying, but did you didn't build for us? you abstained. the original sin came from the inability of european strategist and their own countries to understand the need to obviously what we in africa and our student. immediately he held the such international conference on this continent. i mean, we are criticize the best i put in,

but he wrote gas turbine gas from there. and you have criticize in africa for voting in particular ways. you can have your cake and you've directed development aid from the continent. you've left people in the ledge. you've taken away your watch ships from the gulf of guinea. those of us who were europe's friends. during the cold war and hobby euros alights have be left in the ledge because you ropes causes ad now improperly. and it will be difficult for you to come back and to reestablish this relationship. because europe has told us, you don't matter. we only use you when it suits us, and that's what africa has led to and that stand. and this beginning to show it again see by see will fort according to the way that we think best shoot our national and interest and best shoots, the aspirations of all white people. unfortunately,

european analysts are consistently misreading what the continent or how the continent and that stands about for what is happening in a western europe. thank you. very powerful message there to europe vladimir time is clearly of the essence, particularly in the area of, of the food shortages. who, if anyone could actually exercise influence on vladimir putin in china, turkey, there are various candidates out there. well, i'm not sure there's someone out there who can influence, let him know, supporting decisions because he's acting on himself. but he is kind of in his mind . he's a very brief medical state man. so there must be someone who can are good for him, not try to influence him, but to try to negotiate to him somehow. i know it sounds completely unrealistic. it's i know it's consult with outside of the store, but at some point,

as long as put them in the power in criminal, there must be some way to communicate to them. i know it's very am. it sounds not read eristic because we are on the way, blaming each other. we blame europe, blame russia, ukraine, brenda ross and rational blames every one. and it's a blame game without any aint of signed. but at some point, i hope and pray for that is kind of way out. i don't see it's how it looks and how it could have look right now, but it must be away odd because otherwise beginning to cry, this is bigger. that's what we're facing right. now, and i want to drill deeper into what that crisis means, but 1st, also take a look at the energy sector because in the face of russian retaliation western sanctions can begin to look like they're following the law of unintended consequences. as western countries are winning themselves off, russian fossil fuels, oil and gas prices have not fallen, but spiked. and that is throwing european economies into disarray. gas is

one of russia's trump cards. russian energy company gas problem has completely halted or severely curtailed. it supplies in a number of you states, including germany, germany's minister for economic affairs used twitter to call on people to save energy. yo now is the time to do it. every st kilowatt per hour helps in this situation. europe's dependence on russian gas and oil is costing citizens dearly fuel electricity, heating, sanctions and supplied freezes have doubled energy prices. in some cases, the effects can be felt everywhere, including in the shopping cart as, as the case with food. the inflation rate in europe is over 8 percent. another record high. this means that more more people lack the money for basic needs, such as food and housing. and it's not just in europe around the world. financial and commodity markets are coming under increasing pressure. is the war in ukraine,

causing a global economic crisis? and let me put that question straight away to a vendor lean. we've heard of many, many leading institutions, including the world bank, the i m alpha and others saying that they are drastically revising downward. they are predictions for the global economy, referring to stagflation, a returning. how do you see at how bad is this crisis likely to be? and do any of these organizations have the tools to find solutions? well, the, the outlook is certainly dia, and the big question is whether, i mean there's, there's even a scenario that there'd be no recession, but i think it's probably more likely that there will be some kind of recession, but whether it will be a recession with a cappella, or with a small i, which of course, we hope it will be the latter. so with a small, i, you know, there'd be some increase in unemployment, you know, but inflation will be more, less broad under control, which is not the case yet. and you,

it will be painful but manageable a procession with a big if you know that the one thing that everybody's tit terribly worried about. and that would be probably bigger than the financial crisis in 2018, 2009. that would be very painful for the entire blog crazy. a many developing countries and emerging economies faced what is now referred to as a last decade back in the 1970s. when we saw that low growth inflation scenario called stagflation. what would a major downturn mean now, for them, particularly in view of the fact that they're already struggling to recover from the pandemic at the enormous debt burns that many have taken on whatever, whatever it is going to be disastrous and would make the was it belittle fall group

very difficult. let's not forget that. says the eighty's. we've seen buried dramatic increase in the demographics. we've seen expanded banks bases. we've seen, you know, lack of jobs and increasing on employment. but you know, this mag, you meant a simple informed and dynamic leadership. content around this huge numbers of people, young people and then turn it into something positive. but i think that the finding variable day, it's informed lead actually do we have the lead death with the gum sin and the strength of will to fit who we are going to confront the challenges that we feed head on, on fortunately, the unsafe, know? so the last decade is going to translate possibly into our last generation that

will have a ripple, no repercussions. not only on this continent that have to have replication specter planning for what you're thank you very much. you know, it strikes me. we talk a lot about whether the ukraine war could become a world war, and in that case, normally we mean a nuclear war. but if we look at this from the economic perspective, it strikes me that indeed this already is a world wide clunk conflagration. vladimir would not use the work. we're just your torch more. but it's a huge, huge church crisis. and is it time possibly for the west to reassess sanctions? maybe yes. with martha not on to the way through. so to program dental it. yes, i agree with me and i would call it an economic cold war that we are having at the

moment. it's not a hot war, but it's a cold war. crazy time to reassess sanctions, a cold deputy because frankly disposing of existential threads to all of us. thank you very much to all of you for being with us. and thanks to you out there for tuning and see you soon. ah, ah ah ah ah ah

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ah, ah. this is d w in use live from berlin. the european union puts ukraine on the path to membership. european leaders approve both ukraine and moldova as official candidates to join you in the future. also coming up, the u. s. senate passes a gun safety bill. the bipartisan action is the most significant measure of it.