ah, with we are, your is actually on fire. for mines with rushes, retaliation against western sanctions is sparking a world wide crisis as food and fuel prices sore putting the vulnerable at risk, rushes slash and gas deliveries to european countries, including germany. in what one german leader calls an economic attack. citizens are tightening their belts as inflation surgeons. nowhere more so than in the global south, where russia's blockade of grange shipments could plunge up to 50000000 people into famine. today we're asking no grain, no gas is scarcity. proteins,

weapon of choice. ah hello and welcome to to the point. it's a great pleasure to introduce our guests than to lena fun. the brain o is european business and finance correspondent for the magazine, the economist and, and got him here. he's a puff is my colleague here at d w. he works with d w's russian desk. and it's a pleasure to welcome coming to us from ghana, virtually professor queasy annoying. he is director at the cofi on an international peacekeeping training center in a cross. welcome to you. and before i come to you dear guests, i would like for all of us to listen to a recent claim made by

a vladimir putin that european and us sanctions, which he referred to as an economic blitzkrieg, are actually hurting the west more than russia. you thus learn more, you are using the european politicians have already dealt a serious blow to their own economy's company. we shortly. experts estimate that the total e losses from the sanctions next year could reach as much as $400000000000.00 us dollars do for you see what didn't. inflation in certain countries has her past 20 percent and vendor linna putting, went on to say that in fact, his government has stabilized russia's financial system. it's banking system. it's trade relations. is he right? are the sanctions actually boomer ranking to hurt the countries that imposed the more than russia? well, of course he is exaggerating hugely,

but there is the grain of truth and all that. so we are suffering because of the, you know, this situation because of the aggression, because of, you know, all the, the higher energy prices, higher food prices, all of that. so we are suffering. but eventually russia will suffer much more. so in that sense, he's wrong. what is eventually mean? i know that one economist, but he is a bit of an outlier has said that we could see a drop in russian growth or in russia's g, d, p of up to 12 percent this year. do you think that's right? i think that's absolutely plausible. so even, and that's a lot by itself as, as is really a lot and next year will be possibly even worse. because at the moment, for instance, germany is still depends for about 35 percent of its gas inputs on russia used to be 55 percent or is it down to $35.00? said eventually it wants to be completely independent of russian gas. which means, you know, the payments, so russia will dwindle to almost nothing. and that's makes a huge, has a huge impact on russia. glenn, i mean, what are you hearing from friends and family in russia?

do they say that life is back to normal? life is normal, there was no, no, any kinds of crazy brush. there was. inflation is on the road. andrew as well present, which doesn't mention the inflation and rush hour or 15 percent already. it doesn't play any in your all for him in the public opinion. there they have the public opinion, they're not completely under control, so there is no panicking nor no panic hamster buying. no, nothing. there are some sort of just on medications in the rush and pharmacists, but it's basically all in their 1st shock wave of their, this invasion or especially immunity operation. there are some boarding is our so life is normal. and it's surprising. so one of the best because they're hopeful at the sanctions, it'll be introducing some kind of new, new atmosphere and rustling domestic politics. it's not, doesn't happen. then de leon just told us that, that, that she and many others watching this situation do expect the situation to get

worse in rush. won't that cause economic hardship for normal citizens? it might happen. but the question is, how long can reach terms long terms of sort of the yes, but we don't know how long this long term will be and how many ukrainians will die before the long term consequences will arrive in russia. so if it takes one year or more to direct sanctions during the russian society, what will happen to the ukraine in this period of time? the cost for us is absolutely huge because the sanctions are unique in the history event or such back a wide range of things in ever, in the history of the, of the best and politics. but at the same time, they were in the grand going on dog stops and is, has become a war of attrition. crazy western leaders have repeated almost as a kind of mantra that sanctions are only sustainable if they hurt the country

that's being sanctioned. more than those that impose the sanctions and they are friends and allies. so if you look at the international effects of western sanctions and russian retaliation, would you say we've reached the point at which the cost so essentially outweigh any advantages? nothing functions redeems, always have a tendency to hit of the mark. so where we to see that mister putin and his friends are being sanctioned by c z lux, reaction freezing bank account. that is not really in the mark. these denials of the sanctions regime is that people who are not congest shelly, part of this war ab be in effect at barrett. but let me make this point very clear that for those of us on this continent of africa, we think that the wall provides challenges. but i think with sophisticated

leadership, the watch, it also provides opportunities for us in terms of much more effective. you know, i go court trial policies much more credible supply chain in those systems. so yes, in the immediate tab, as vladimir has spoken about and been deleted, also, it looks as if it's not having that long term. i think the russians are going tools to suffer and liquid opportunities for africa and, and it's needed to improve the report from supplier to i want to drill deeper on the short term. and the fact is that even before russia attacked ukraine, the world food program was warning that a cascade of crisis is putting millions of people in mortal danger. now as a result of blockaded grain shipments and surging prices, it's predicting a hunger crisis of unprecedented proportions. hungry, thirsty,

and severely weakened. that's how millions of people feel in countries like kenya, ethiopia, and somalia, located in the horn of africa. 2000000 children just like this little girl are at risk of starvation. glad i was very upset. i'm worried about her condition when she came to the hospital like she would die. there is no food as crops, dry up, and livestock die of thirst. east africa is experiencing its worst drought in 40 years. the fundamental issue in somalia and the horn at the moment is the climate induced crisis, right. it's route where the effects of the brain crisis come in is that the food prices and the. ready fuel prices and others, m r heights up to a point where we need more resources to secure what be with the secured before. prices are rising daily, including wheat a staple for many meals,

especially for poorer families. according to the un african countries import almost half of their wheat from ukraine and russia, the longer the war and ukraine in the russian black, he of the black sea port lasts the scarcer green will become, and the greater need will increase. will the ukraine war cause people to starve crazy? let me put that question directly to you. which countries and which groups would you say are most at risk? well, i think come, chris, that export immense amounts of grid. oh, reach from your credit will be at risk, but let me also see this countries which import not under rent is not the fundamental grid that africans each is ms school hong.

it's about st. potatoes. it's about to plan the tea. it's about cook or yeah, mr. bar yeah, this crisis must force african lead this to turn round the agricultural policies. if our risk assessment had been great and our lead death had listed when this was that if african steve had said less, increased our midst production by 20 percent, it is just 3 to 4 months. for me to grow for st. potatoes to grow. i think we need to move beyond this narrative of africa in a relationship of charity, where people should always give the continental this wall class corbett is giving a lot of african lead this. that the way to claim that the problems are from these 2 things. the, the hunger that challenges the poverty predicted the wall and predicted

corbett, let them put in place the proper agricultural policies and we would need to treat it crazy nonetheless, as you mentioned that before our report, there is a short term long term dilemma. here. do you think famine can still be averted? i think we've closed a certain threshold because it's clay between used probably about 90 percent of it and that collaborating juice challenge. challenge just related to food insecurity, has been ongoing for the past 567 years, probably 10 years. you got to be that crowd ra process that us now escalated and west and by the a limited amount of inputs coming. in other words, of angelina, this war has become a crisis multiplier as it was. so tell us, if you would, how you see, you know,

how we go forward on the matter of food shortages. the world food crap program has now put forward a 5 point plan that it wants to g 7 to adopt. and in fact, the g 7 will be meeting next week under german leadership. and the 1st point in this program is as, as the world food program says, political solutions to and conflict now and relax the blockade of black see ports that is a very tall order. is it feasible? it is, it is of a toyota. but 1st of all, on the multiply effect. yes. so the crisis pre dated in the war and ukraine. so energy prices and food prices and, you know, the whole problem of time of change, of course, all of that existed, even before russia invaded ukraine. but of course, the invasion has made it much worse. so what can we do in the immediate future? of course we need to unblock those deliveries from ukraine. i mean,

they're stuck in the ports and, and you know, and, and it's a tragedy even ukrainians cannot store anything anymore because all the storage facilities are full. so that is something we can do that, that can pet very quickly. and so the big challenge is to raise silos on the border for exactly. exactly, and most importantly to let the ships leave the port. and apparently that's one ship that left yesterday, the port of maria pull a turkish ship and one doesn't know whether it was grained but, but anyway, so it's possible. but you know that it's part of the huge problem of the whole world logistic because countries and it's war and the grains experts from the ukraine is under one small piece of their huge and very complex problem. and i'm afraid they're not able to solve this problem, a part of the biggest, bigger problem, which is, which of the war in their crane can i ask you about me? russia has claimed that, in fact,

it's ukraine. that has put the minds outside of ukrainian black see ports and it also says there's nothing moscow can do about that. foreign minister lab, rob said just recently that russia is willing to guarantee the safety of ukrainian ships that leave those ports. if it d mines the ports in itself, and he also said russia would not take advantage of an unprotected ukrainian coast . do you believe any of those claims? i don't, i don't know what to believe yet from what's coming from a russian government because it's, you know, spirit address and feeling planting can do it in and out. i think i would to, i would look what was happening in, in the reality of what they're telling because they're kind of the same time blaming grass, a fall book and the bars, wiring them. so it's blame, game is a part of the war propaganda. basically on the both sides of the, of the border it's, it's,

it's are magical. it's just huge. huge for not for african kind content, but for the wards community such. and this is the reason because g 7 should find kind of solution to this foot crisis which is coming off. it's the g 7 if or last so it will be chairing that meeting. were to call you up now and say, what's the 1st thing we should do? what would you tell him? take a deep breath. i did i have, i have no idea. i have no idea basically because at some point you suit, i hope we will find that it kind of way, although the whole situation, but it's the, the whole dynamic is very negative, right? and also the on the word pop, clearly from the rational under the grade book. the rest of society is such and it's not getting better. i'm afraid, casey, i know you wanted to speak to that point. let me ask you to just also say a word about these blame narratives. we've talked about this several times on this

program in recent weeks. the fact that put in blames ukraine and the west for the looming hunger crisis. whereas the west says russia is using hunger as a weapon. now i know that donna was one of the countries that abstained when the un voted in april the un general assembly to condemn the russian invasion. it is abstained along with 57 other countries, many of them from the global south, which narrative would you say people there believes? well, i think people on the african continent and are beginning to create your own narrative that africa doesn't want to be seen as a humanitarian victim or a charity project. and that the continent and its members have an agency that is necessary for both russia, ukraine, and a general western world. 20 stand. there's

a tendency for africa to be seen just as a tangential pat of the crisis in europe. and i think europe's miss reading of mr. putting 1st, this glorious acceptance of mr. putting expanding the g 7 slappey him on darren in 2014 way the bid did decry me. yeah. and now suddenly europeans are saying, but did you do build for us? you up stayed. the original sin came from the inability of european strategist and their own countries to understand the need to stop what we in africa understood. immediately he held the such international conference on this continent . i mean, we are criticize a bit, i put in what you wrote, yes, as they're buying dots from there. and they are criticizing africa for voting in particular ways. you cannot have your cake and to it. you've directed development

aid from the continent. you left people in that ledge. you've taken away your watch ships from the gulf of guinea. both of us who way europe's friends during the cold war and how be euro's alex had be left in the latch. because you roast causes are now in problem and it would be difficult for you to come back and to reestablish this relationship. because europe has told us, you don't matter. we only use you when it's use us. and that's what africa has lent when that stand. and it's beginning to show it jesse by see we will fort according to the way that we think it best, shoot our national interest and best suits the aspirations of all. so i, people, unfortunately you group and analysts are consistently misreading what the continent or how the continent and that's dance about what is happening in

a western europe. thank you very powerful message there to europe vladimir. time is clearly of the essence, particularly in the area of, of the food shortages. who, if anyone could actually exercise influence on vladimir putin in china, turkey, there are various candidates out there. well, i'm not sure there's someone out there who can influence voting, supporting decisions because he's acting on himself. but he is kind of in his mind . he's a very brief medical state man. so there must be someone who can are good for him, not try to influence him, but to try to negotiate to him somehow. i know it sounds completely unrealistic. it's i know it's all complete outside of the sort. but at some point, as long as put them in the power in criminal, there must be some way to communicate to them. i know it's very,

it sounds not read eristic because we are on the way blaming each other. we blame europe, blame russia, ukraine. brenda ross and russia blames everyone, and it's a blame game without any, any aint of signed. but at some point, i hope and pray for that is kind of way out. i don't see it's how it looks. it call it good at book right now, but it must be away odd because otherwise beginning to cry, this is bigger. that's what we're facing right now. and i want to drill deeper into what that crisis means. but 1st, also take a look at the energy sector because in the face of russian retaliation western sanctions can begin to look like they're following the law of unintended consequences. as western countries are winning themselves off, russian fossil fuels, oil and gas prices have not fallen, but spiked. and that is throwing european economies into disarray. gas is one of russia's trump cards. russian energy company gas problem has completely halted or severely curtailed. it supplies in a number of you states,

including germany, germany's minister for economic affairs used twitter to call on people to save energy. jo, now is the time to do it every st kilo up per hour helps in this situation. your europe's dependence on russian gas and oil is costing citizens dearly fuel electricity heating, sanctions and supplied freezes have doubled energy prices. in some cases, the effects can be felt everywhere, including in the shopping cart as, as the case with food. the inflation rate in europe is over 8 percent another record high. this means that more and more people lack the money for basic needs, such as food and housing. and it's not just in europe around the world. financial and commodity markets are coming under increasing pressure. is the war in ukraine, causing a global economic crisis? and let me put that question straight away to a vendor leon. we've heard of many,

many leading institutions including the world bank, the i m alpha and others saying that they are drastically revising downward. they are predictions for the global economy, referring to stagflation, a returning. how do you see it? how bad is this crisis likely to be? and do any of these organizations have the tools to find solutions? well, the, the outlook is certainly dia, i'm, and the big question is whether, i mean there's, there's even a scenario that there'd be no recession, but i think it's probably more likely that there will be some kind of recession, but whether it will be a recession with a cappella, or with a small i, which of course, we hope it will be the latter. so, with a small, i, you know, there'd be some increase in unemployment, you know, but inflation will be more, less broad under control, which is not the case yet. and in it will be painful but manageable a profession with a big if you know that the one thing that everybody's tit terribly worried about.

and that would be probably bigger than the financial crisis in 2008, 2009. that would be very painful for the entire blog. quickly. many developing countries and emerging economies faced what is now referred to as a last decade back in the 900 seventies. when we saw that low growth inflation scenario called stagflation. what would a major downturn mean? now, for them, particularly in view of the fact that they're already struggling to recover from the pandemic. and the enormous debt burdens that many have taken on whatever whatever it is going to be disastrous and would make the possibilities fall and grow very difficult. let's not forget that says the eighty's. we've seen very dramatic increase in the demographics. we've seen

expanded bank bases. we've seen, you know, lack of jobs and increasing on employment. but you know, this mag, you meant a simple informed and dynamic leadership content around this huge numbers of people, young people, and then turn it into something positive. but i think the defining variable day, it's informed elite action. do we have the lead deaths with their gum sin? and that's kind of well to see who we are going to confront the challenges that we feed head on on. fortunately, the unsafe, know? so the last decade is going to translate possibly into our last generation that will have a ripple, no repercussions. not only on this continent,

better to have replication specter planning course to your thank you very much. you know, it strikes me. we talk a lot about whether the ukraine war could become a world war, and in that case, normally we mean a nuclear war. but if we look at this from the economic perspective, it strikes me that indeed this already is a worldwide clump conflagration. vladimir, i would not use the work. we're supposed to talk to more, but it's a huge, huge, huge crisis. and is it time possibly for the west to reassess sanctions? maybe yes. with martha, not on to the way through. so to program dental it. yes, i agree with me and i would call it an economic cold war that we are having at the moment. it's not affordable, but it's a cold war. crazy time to reassess sanctions, a cold deputy because frankly disposing of existential threads to all of us.

thank you. very much to all of you for being with us. and thanks to you out there for tuning and see you soon. ah, ah ah, ah ah ah ah ah

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