tv Conflict Zone Deutsche Welle July 7, 2022 2:30am-2:54am CEST
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more countries, discrimination, quality, or part of everyday life. for many, we ask why? because life is diversity. to make up your own mind. d. w. need for mines. russia claims it has captured the nuanced region in ukraine's east. it is also stepping up attacks against civilian santos, like residential buildings and shopping malls, ukraine, civilian casualties, and troop losses are mounting as well as ukraine. losing this wall. not at all. that's from my guest this week. joining me from luciano in switzerland. god, wilka is a former us ambassador to nato, and a former us special representative for ukraine negotiations. and he believes the
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west should be doing more to support ukraine. remember, ukrainians are paying for our security with their lives. we would be paying for their security with higher prices, but good. crocs in the western alliance did a long term support for ukraine. all this and more on conflict, so about of the culture. welcome to conflict on. thank you very much, chris, be increasing high reading. this forces deploying forces further forward. all of this is meant to contain much, it doesn't do anything for ukraine, specifically, some of the other nato allies, of course, including united states in germany, and you are providing direct systems to train. but that's done outside benito framework. not you said in a recent interview that when it comes to protecting the blog, nato has done a very good job. you just had the same thing right now, but when it comes to being relevant and effective in crisis management during the
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biggest war in europe, court, nato hasn't distinguished itself. is natal failing ukraine and buster vulgar? well, i think nato is not playing a role right now. in this largest war, europe, nato is founded in order to create security for us and it is doing that. but it's 2nd court function from the strategic concept, even the one that was just to read at the madrid summit. it says the 2nd core function of nato is crisis management, and nato is not really involved in ending this crisis. russia's war against ukraine . one thing that i think natal could be doing even today is providing a clearinghouse functions for arms and shipments to ukraine. united states, he's doing this out of ramstein. they are based doing it all bilateral basis with many other countries. but this is something that nato has done for and could do in
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this case as well. what else you need to be doing is just about getting house functionally. is there more that need to be doing to directly help your friend? yeah, i think there are also functions in terms of intelligence collection and sharing with screenings. there are communication functions that could be done, and most importantly, i think it's the training and equipping of ukrainian forces. nato could do that, but it's being done only by individual allies at this time. so just going back to that summit in madrid, nato has committed more troops to the east. it has committed more troops to the baltic that has increased its response. forced by a factor of 8 to about 300000 nato is still not on the right track. well no, i think nader is on the right track in terms of collective defense. as i said, i think there it is a very good job. the increases in high rating new forces, if they are truly realized, will be very significant. the forward deployment of forces to pull in romania, the baltic states. that's very important. and the inclusion of them live in sweden
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will do a lot of strength and security in very low stocks. the u. s. has been drawing down its stocks of defense materials and providing a ukraine. but nonetheless, taking a long time. this question, for example, about providing these multiple launch rockets systems, the are the or longer range artillery. we knew back in february and march that this would be needed and it is now july and they're just arriving. so this is something where we could have acted much faster. what is the risk if the intelligence did say, russia controlled about 20 percent of ukraine? but then you have president lensky remaining firm on the assertion that ukraine will regain all of its sovereignty by the taking all of this territory. is this even realistic? is realistic. if ambitious, but it is realistic, ukrainian, now having basically let the russians exhaust themselves military and russia
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not gaining more ground will now be in a position where they are just sitting there. ukraine will begin counter offenses to retake territories. they won't be more strategic, doesn't russians were what the russians just talking to hans, because not very, militarily insignificant. ukrainians will be 1st trying to get the russians out of psalms, cutting off their supply lines there and pushing them back. breaking the land bridge between dawn bus and crimea was probably around the little pole and trying to push the rushes further away from harkey. all of this, i think it's quite achievable. how far the ukrainians can push back, who don't know yet, but we know they have the determination to fight. is this what victory looks like for ukraine given the situation on the ground now? well, victory for ukraine is a survival as a sovereign independent european democracies. and that's already assured. now the question is, can they get all of their territory back or not?
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i certainly hope they can, but that will be part of the fighting that we see coming up later this summer and in the a lot of this will depend on how the negotiations finally end up. i mean, they're supposed to begin at some point. they will have to begin at some point and just on that point, electrical, your attention to a recent joint article in the telegraph that you create in foreign minister dimitra cool about authored with his u. k counterpart. lease trust they wrote and i could put in will only be seated about negotiations once the ukrainian people have pushed his troops back. now i think we both agree that that won't be quick or easy if there are risk that ukraine's western backers won't have the patients for that. there is a risk, you know, you do here periodically, statements about we must not humiliate to didn't. i think the president said that where the ukraine needs to negotiate the costs are too high. but every time that happens,
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ukrainians insist that it's their country and they will be the ones to decide whether they are fighting back to retake it or not. and they have every intention to do so, and as long as the ukrainians maintain that resolved, i am pretty sure that the western united states will continue to support you. you talked about what president mcroy had central, which he was quite heavily criticized by the ukranian, but then you also have italy which circulated in may a peace plan which essentially put the don beth and crimea up when negotiation between russia and ukraine. do you think there is a real risk here? the creature nations in europe like germany, france, italy will push for a cease fire even if that comes of the cost of ukrainian territory? yes, yes. i think that is a risk. you saw that with the drug plan. you saw that with mccullin's comments. we heard some comments from germany as well and especially at gluten will try to squeeze gas supplies to europe this winter. he hopes that by creating more pain for
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west europeans, it will cause governments in western europe to be great to get a lot of territory. i think it's despicable that that is the plan, but that is what you will try to do. and it is important that all of us keep up the support for ukraine and keep the pressure back on russia and not give in to those calls for ukraine to give up the territory. what happens down the line? and best of all, if during negotiations, ukraine demands things that is western beckers aren't ready to support. well it's, it's hard to know what that would be because at this point, i think the western countries that are supporting ukraine continuously reaffirm we support ukraine sovereignty and territorial integrity and grain has a right to fight back and reject territory. so there's nothing that ukraine is asking for saying that they have not received support for as a matter of principle from the west. that is for the time being. let's talk about
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the west as a whole. and i think by virtue, if you haven't been a us ambassador to need to, we do need to discuss the us, his role here moving forward. now, so far in the united states, it appears that the public is heavily behind whatever action the government is taking in support of ukraine. but given the domestic issues, some very divisive domestic issues that are playing out to the united states. now, how long can this public support stay the course? well, talking about the united states, i think that it will not only stay the course quoted or increase. the biden administration has been slow and doing partial steps and getting a lot of pressure from the congress. republicans and democrats to do more and do it faster, and that is based on strong public support for ukraine's. so i see mid term elections actually strengthening the position in congress to push ministration to be doing
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even more to help train just about the midterm elections are going to be happening in november and it's widely predicted that the republicans will end up controlling the house. and the senate you are certain that us bipartisanship will remain beyond november. yes, i think we've seen it already where you had a republican senator, senator johnny ernst, ever republican, senator foreign affairs committees and johnson, you have others and they are working very closely with their democratic counterparts. chan foreign relations committee, sen, manenda, europe, committees, subcommittee chair sen, shaheen. they're all working together. they are pushing for more support to ukraine's and you have slips and, you know, have republicans in the majority of democrats and minority. i think we continue to work together to provide that support you're giving names of you giving names of
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republicans that mil to throw some republican names at your senate hopeful, j. d events. for instance, a thing i caught, i got to be honest with you. i don't really care what happens to ukraine one way or the other. you have senator ron paul, who's saying that the us shouldn't be ukraine's court sugar daddy. i mean, these are the worst of the 2 heading on the republican side of things. could these voices not affect the mood in the republican party going forward, especially after november? well, they are not the leading voices right now, and i don't believe they will be after november either ran pause been in the senate for years. and he is usually expressed opinions like that and usually been quite along. there are in addition to that, do that. you mentioned j, v that is elected dental ad avoids. there's a huge there's one or 2 others who are often skeptical about continued us support or the scale with us support. but you have senator mitch mcconnell,
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minority leaders, if he becomes the majority leader again, he is offered very strong support for ukraine. and the vast majority of the republican senator and i can name dozens of them. are very strongly supportive ukraine and tech, very critical administrations for not doing more. i mean, you talk about what was going to happen in november, but already in may, we saw some of the end of us foreign policy could make a return to the white house in 2024. is that a real concern? yes, people should be concerned about that. we've had, we take it beyond president trump, we had every us president, after their election talks in one way or another about pulling back from our commitments abroad and focusing on nation building at home as president obama said we're, if the economy stupid as president clinton said or not fighting other people's civil wars and ending to wars as president obama said. so this america 1st policy,
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uh, president trump, all you know, it was part of that tradition is a little bit more outspoken in the way president trump does it, but it is a tradition out there that we do have to watch out for. fortunately, i think russia, russia, that we saw since february as strengthened the international side of both the republican and democratic parties. and it has caused them just to recognize russia threats and the need to push back against. all right, let's look at the other side of western unity. what's happening here in the european union, sweden foreign minister, and linda has won that interest in the you can waters fading because food prices, energy prices are rising. they're expected to rise even further. heading later into the yeah, borders. johnson is warning of ukraine fatigue. can europe sustain support for the long term for ukraine? yeah, that's the challenge i think. and here we talked about already. i think it will get
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harder for europe as russia squeezes energy. this winter's both in terms of price and availability. it's going to cause some real hardship in europe. and that in turn may put pressure on, say, hey, it's time for ukraine today or she does, she's buyers. i think that that is the greater risk that we base right now. essentially what you're saying is russian gas could do it in europe, in unity i have done so in the math than it could be, could do. so again, it is certainly intention to use energy that way. so when, when natal installed in boxes, ukraine will have support from the block go for as long as it takes. do you believe him? well, i do. i think he's making the right statements. i think it is the intention of every country nouns, but just as you're a den affine humbly, these trends are work you can on that edge and it could change. and that's what we
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all have to work against to make sure that both in the united states and especially in europe, especially in the winter, if there's an energy crunch, that we have the fortitude to support ukraine. remember, ukrainians are paying for our security with their lives. we would be paying for their security with higher prices. you also said in march and best of the key to your credit survival is holding off. russian forces long enough for sanctions against russia to have that impact. do you think sanctions have gone far enough? no, i don't. i think that they need more time. and that is something where week by week we see some evidence that sanctions are taking a bite. for instance, shareholders of gas bomb just voted to increase the amount of taxes that they're paying to the russian government as an indicator of the russian government is sure cash. so there are things that we're starting to see,
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but i think we need to close loopholes in the sanctions. differently against smaller russian backs that are funding for the bigger banks of financial transfers to russia that are still getting through and shipment of oil from russia. let's take away the insurance of those ships and imports of russian oil and gas, which are still not shut down. you're given the state of the european union the way it is right now. do you see that happening and told oil is certainly possible. there is no reason why or imports of rushing oil could not be stopped. gas, i know it's harder. i know people see a tough transition, especially going through this winter. but again, ukrainians are paying for this with their lives. we haven't had a sense of urgency, even if it means a bit higher prices. and i think europe has the means to actually be able to take off itself off the russian gas sooner than the end of next year, which is the current idea. let's look ahead to possible future ties between the you and russia. in an interview, on the 27th of june,
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ambassador you said the following. the decision, the europeans really need to be making is we can't live with this genocidal maniac . next door to us any more, i think you and i both agree that 14 doesn't look to be going away anytime soon. so what does that future look like? well, again, you can deal with someone like he has ordered his forces into ukraine as a direct war. regression is lied to all of us about his intentions. repeatedly, he had directed his forces to commit war crimes including use of rapers and the war, including the killing civilians, including the targeting of maternity hospitals and civilian facilities. so this is not something where anyone in europe can work with this. and this regime regime is going to have to go now that being said, i don't agree that we won't be seeing the end of good and anytime soon. there are
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many indications that he is in poor health. that may be one of the reasons why he is driving so hard to steal these territories from crane. now you want to be part of his personal legacy. so i think that pressures are building as a result of the war effort and not going well for russia as a result of sanction. as a result of internal susan russia that something may snap and we should just not be . we should not be afraid of that. we should keep pressing, putting the pressure on the rushing ambassador walker. what would you like to see happening now in europe? so that peace returns off to this war? well, i like to see russia withdraw its forces from ukraine. that's the way we'll have peace again, it, russia is able to continue to attack its neighbors, to steal their territory, to commit war crimes and get away with it. there will never be security in europe,
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and one on a piece. and remember that russia occupies parts of moldova and georgia as well. so this, what we're seeing in ukraine is brutal, but is a continuation of a many years patter. and that means that pattern will continue in the future unless russia is forced to pull out. i'm president cut volker. we live with that. thank you so much for joining us. very much. with with
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