county, the highlights you every week in your in box subscribe. now sometimes a seed is all you need to allow big ideas to grow. we're bringing environmental conservation to life with learning pass like global ideas. we will show you how climate change and environmental conservation is taking shape around the world and how we can all make a difference. knowledge grows through sharing. download it now for free. nato has responded to russia's war of aggression against ukraine with a new strategy to new members. and one of the most sweeping reforms in its entire history. it will massively increase its troops and weapon systems in eastern europe, especially in the baltic states. the rapid reaction force will even be increased

sevenfold with this night help wants to deter putin from attacks against further neighboring states. i'll topic to died. nato f, as is protein, going toe to toe with the aggressive with one. welcome to to the point, let me introduce a my panel today. kara lina bigger up political editor of kaltura liberal now poland, leading online, weekly, go south, crescent nato and military expert with european council on foreign relations. and alex say, use a pop a russia expert with the little he but foundation it in a pearlin, a warm welcome to ball a few. now, in response to proteins warn you, crying nato has undergone. it's most sweeping reform and biggest

transformation since the end of the cold war put in or has achieved the opposite. it seems of what he wanted. mammy weakening nato, pushing it back westwards. at the summit last week, metal work, gums are nearly welcomed to new members are so did now to do the right thing. there are absolutely oh nature. reconfirmed is open door policy. the countries that want to apply can apply on sweden and finland have both made it clear before the war. that although they are not members of nature, the freedom to choose, the alliance is one of the core rides are granted to them. another paras charged on that it would not see this fried in diminished or limited by russia. and this was, if you, if you go back to the december 17th proposal, or they put in, put on the table to kind of force neutralization of, of, of eastern european and all countries are in the east for something that they

bitterly objected. so it is certainly the right thing curly that poland has demanded sort of a in improvement of the defenses on the east and flags, more troops, more weapons are for, for many, many years. so is war so happy now we're so is so quite happy and we understand that this is a compromise. it is perhaps not the whole that that was the wanted. but so not only poland, but also other states of the eastern flank, are quite happy with the results of her, of the nato summit and a new strategy. it is quite obvious that nato has never changed so much, and it is also very obvious that it is a compromise. but well, it's very difficult to have such a compromise among so many a member states. so we should be satisfied. now let's say let's, let's look to,

to russia and this confrontation with nato. what, what, what's the reaction in the commentary at and moscow? what the, the political circles, what, what, what do they think? there is a variety of voices and opinions, different shades of it. most of them are, are seeing that we told you this is that we told you so fraction pretty much the sing masks are off. this was the plan throughout the last 30 years anyways. and now use his nose. it's rankin's narrative, and now we can see go it into fulfillment. this is the more propagandistic tone you have. then you have the, the strain of thought saying, look, it always was between the u. s. in russia and whatever happens in europe only shows that this is a bilateral conflict. this gifts, of course, additional reputation to russia standard, but as also propagandistic note. and then there is a 3rd more sober, i would say toe and coming up from professional military, also diplomatic circle saying look, this thing has never been planned like this. and the risks of inadvertent

escalation are extreme with this new and they to russia border coming up with the lacking lions to the conflict with an absolute new militarization dynamic. so is this really something, or at least it's not a doubting voice, but as a voice thing? we should really be careful about things which are happening on the european theater now. so you have different voices, but all of them treat this thing as the new normal. every one has accepted it. now nato, or some have declared nato brain dead in the past, but put his aggression against ukraine. kiss the alliance awake, nay to it. now could france its biggest realignment since the cold war? let's have a quick look on land in the air and on the water. nato has been present in the baltics and poland since rushes activity and occupation of crimea in 2014, as a deterrent so far. now the transition from the terrans to a state of alert, the nato troops already present on the eastern borders will be increased to brigade

level. that means up to $5000.00 soldiers each and bases are to become permanent. germany has already announced its intention to lead the combat brigade and lithuanian nature is very high readiness. joint task force will be increased sevenfold in the rent of an emergency to $300000.00 soldiers. more money will flow. 1000000000 euros will be invested for the development of new technology. the path is clear, fulfilled and, and sweden to join the military alliance. with this, nato will grow to 32 member states. exercises in the event of an attack or underway. liken this maneuver in the baltic sea, does nato now have a permanent grip on putin? was so closely does it, does nigel have a permanent grip on foot?

while it, if all the measures that are talked about now are implemented, van d, d, the capability to deter russian aggression are fairly high. and so the good, however, i mean, a lot of stuff is in the dieters and how it will be implemented the way and, and what's the timeline? because all of the goals are fairly weak, as like the $300000.00 men to be held on the arms. not yet clear at what level of readiness, the old nato response force was sort of 30 days readiness. i don't know if he can manage free on a 1000 man in 30 days readiness, where will it be? they believe located, et cetera. it also needs to be said that as long as the war, new crane is ongoing, basically russia is not in a military position to do anything about what is happening now. we have seen people are barracks from cleaning group, being empty to be 2nd a to reinforce it almost offensive. now the finish borders even emptied out, or people send to ukraine, or we will, my are sort of what, however, russia might react in practice. we will only see that after the end of this war and

this war is still undecided we, we really don't know what is coming out of that. the so a lot of unknowns and i'd be careful, jake, long term predictions on the current situation. are you suggesting that putin or russia is too weak to oppose nato's eastern fly? now there are 2 week to post because they're bog down in ukraine. ah, once they have finished award will depend on how they're ended and then they will initiate probably a deep military reform because the one ukraine to be very frank has not shown that the russian army is that capable as they fought. and they, they thought, deborah, and i think a lot of issues will demand a structural change or on the russian side. and this is something that actually will happen regardless of what nature will do. it has happened regardless of what need to did before. if you see the sort of the strengthening of the law than the mention oh, of the russian military, d d sort of westward,

moving the strength of the southern and the western military district. that's happened long before sweden, finland vernita members or, or this war escalated. so i think we, we kind of on overestimate how much we are the drivers in russian military policies and, and on the estimate how much they drive themselves in into things. and also the relative, their relative failure of the military advances is also resonated with the russian intellectual political elite. and there are a lot of people coming back to the 1st question saying, is this really what the russian army should be capable off? so that will be a reform whatsoever, regardless of what's happening outside, whether there's a nice quote that i can bring in. now this somebody has said recently, we thought russia has the 2nd best army in the world. and always seeing that the 2nd best army in ukraine is that the, is that a fair assessment? it has been, it has been the expectation of the russian economy will collapse,

and the russian army will prevail. it has come to be in a completely different way in russia, a, we were talking about nato, who compare it to ne, to the military capabilities of russia versus net. i think there is nothing to be out there is no and this is why risks of further extension of conflict between moldova bid throughout the region. would i assess them as completely on non realistic at this current moment? doesn't mean that it will not happen in 2356 years down the road. but at the current moment, this is the single most challenging task for the russian army military forces to stabilize and sustain the successes and gains there have in your korean. so yes, i have to come in a lot of these illnesses at the plague, the russian army plagues, particularly european armies as well. there is a difference between paper and what troops actually have. there is a low state of readiness of materials. some stuff is really all the was just sort of superficially refurbished, doesn't work that, that the wade was intended to be. of course, the big difference in ne, to is there's the u. s. army,

it's common proof when it's capable is high tech at which is as long as the americans are there and are committed to europe. i don't think the russians play with and filled with that. if the, when in washington change the rule, we will live in a different world, but that's subject to probably further questions. i want to go to current a poland will. poland, which has been said to be a sort of on the, on the frontline, very soon very soon or possibly on the front immersive will poland sent troops to the baltics or will it keep a troops its troops inside to prepare for any venture? i think it's still very flexible and we'll see what's going on with what will come . the ancient greek philosophy heracleitus told her once that everything flows and i think this is exactly what will be happening with this nato strategy. it's an important step. i don't have any doubts about it, but then how it look like, how i, what poland will decide. poland as an a very important hub now, ah,

in playing an important role in delivering weapons also to ukraine. it we will, we will see are $11.00 comment i would just like to make about the, the capability of russia to reform its army. i dont doubt that they will undertake a reform, but the question is whether they are capable of doing it success to effectively. i mean, 1st, we were told by many experts during the pandemic, that whilst the last europe was putting money into recovery, found some to pandemic, et cetera. russia was putting money into military, and this is 1st thing. and the 2nd thing is, of course, we say that there a reform will be undertaken after that and the war is over. but will the war will be over? and when will be over because it doesn't seem like an award that was going to end. it rather seems like a frozen hot conflict while we're in poland, coline rod,

which isn't the russian, he exclaimed on the polish territory of if you will. are you worried about it? yes, and her polls are, are very worried about it because it seems like this is the only exception for their stability and security that nato brings to this part of the region. and of course, not only poll, so you could see the reaction of, of, of, of, but the baltic states, and that them the blockades partial, the blockade of, of the transport of good that, that was decided by villainous the, that the government in business. so yes, cutting in grad is i only county or because it seemed it's, it's a very small awe place or it's only or if i'm right, $15000.00 kilo square kilometers. so it's, it's really small. it has only 1000000 inhabitants. and yet, according to many experts, there are, there are nuclear weapons there and,

and if not, nuclear, then still a very and dangerous weapons. and i said briefly, if you could it be a, a reason for putting to move and in grad as, except for the factual data, a huge symbolic potential was symbolic significance for the russian. let's see, i'm revenge just ideology. so the for case, if you will, because in russian of let a cave crimea for calling rad for cost on and for the coral islands on the japanese board. those are all areas which contribute immensely to the idea that russian is a great you reason power or even a global power if you will, and click that is one of those. so i think it has been smart the despite a lot of tension. and if again in poland, european commission has not gone the way of escalating because it doesn't help ukraine. and i think this realization shows us the dividend, brussels people understand that it is an issue which could trigger further hostile

action. so while war is going on in the ukraine, it's unwise to open up a separate different theatre of conflict. so you're right. it's super dangerous. it's very, very, very slippery. and i guess, and this is something we can read along the lines and the russian side of the military experts as well. the fear that it will escalate without political intent is huge. so the one thing is the political intent and there was a marching order and we don't know how it works because no one can look into the hat of regiment, put him on the same time. you have this dynamic off, you have a lot of hardware. you had a lot of new dynamics, you have very little communication. there has been good experience between norwin, russia, for example, where despite all of the conflicts, the navy commanders have had a standing line so that they can do escalation. where the conflict on a level below the political level at the moment we don't have that. okay. we have the u. s. rush or contact. we don't have a soccer contact from native to russia. we don't have a navy contact in the baltic sea, which de facto now transforms into

a need to see in a way. yeah. so there is a lot of risk there, and this is why i feel that both sides will look very, very into am intensely into looking for ways to manage this new confrontation. because as you saying, and i agree, it will probably stay here for years and years and years was that was the, the, the natal point of view on that was the promised di, conflicting mechanisms are between russian nato. is that, that moscow wants to talk to washington. and when he comes to common structures and soccer is, is, is almost accepted because it's an american commander. but when we talk, for example, about the multinational corps in chechen, which is a nature multinational core and which is responsible for military operations in the baltic area. it's not taking seriously in moscow because it's not american and the think, well, you know, in, in moscow thinking, it's sort of the pentagon commands. and all the other multinational formations are just minions who take the who take the orders. and there's no point in talking to

them, and that makes this things very difficult. a de deconstructing mechanism with the u . s. still works somehow there yesterday, graded good, awesome or force not really happy to talk. i'm to wish you as counterparts for some time, but there are still compared to the others. there are still functional and i did another another hotspot on this is of course of maybe in the future the black sea, again, because moscow's happy to talk to turkey. but not to anybody else, not to romania, bilateral, no, not to bulgaria, nor to any need to forest there's, there's no equivalent in is set up in room in constant a and multinational cor se, doesn't that, that is, that is difficult. ah, however, i think without an intent to escalate, i think the incidence can be tamed. um if, if there is an intention to escalate any incident will do because they kind of

support the general narrative. well, be the one person who thinks that might happen that way. you crunch president zelinski. he is certain that putin will not stop in ukraine and step continue with attacks on other countries. let's listen. just browse the questioners. who will be next for russia? dorna slightly less mold of all the baltic countries or poland at the answer is all of them. she will need all of them. and she right, or this is edward. this is historical experience. that is, sir, that is throttling through his mouth. it's so he doesn't have to be factually correct as for what is going to happen to morrow or in 3 months. but 3rd, the most important experience of this region are, which contains sir, ukraine, poland, and the baltic states. and it's important not older, eastern europe, it's,

it's just those rushes direct, earn neighbors. that the experience is that there is a long standing collective habit, a, which is russian imperialism, and this russian imperialism in a new package of russian nationalism has been spreading throughout the past 20 years. so that the, that, that the cases of china, georgia and crimea of course, are under proofs for, for a such argument. patience is very important because of course, you might say, well, this is just fatalism. and this is just thinking that through russian russians are always like this, they have to behave like this. no, it's not about this. it's about knowing what the historical patterns word, what is probable when there she saw it went when the historically gra, grounded, or russian imperialism comes back. yet again, talking about russian imperialism. and if we're looking at rosters, russia's population right now is there an appetite for more action to, for, to,

to attack more countries to bring them back into the fold or with the average russian. i think the so called war party of mobilized nationalists were really pursue or very open ranches. agenda is around 10 to 15 percent of the population. the same size. that's still a lot lot the same size i would dedicate to calling an anti war movement. passive. we're active because you've seen, for example, in comparison to the last year, you've seen an increase in derailment incidence on russian railways, which is very similar to what happens in billows. up to 50 percent. they have been more than 20 attacks, one military, commissariat, so there is some kind of an underground clearly saying this is not a where we want. the problem is the middle because this means that the absolute majority doesn't care is apathetic. is fet. alyssa, going away, which can come from the soviet experience of not having a c in country policy, making a lot of violence in the past. a lot of violent and the files and to own own society

need and looking in wards looking and also facing to be honest. an unprecedented economic crisis, which has never happened before with the technological regression, which will bring russia to if they succeed in mitigating the risk to the level of ninety's, if they fail in mitigating the rest of the level of the eighty's. so people frankly don't care. and this is a big problem because of course, this would be the resonating a space where some signals could be sent out to stop the aggression. unsurprisingly, the kremlin frames nato's reaction on the war in ukraine as an act of aggression. let's listen in to vladimir putin on this very matter. no, no, sir. yet we have nothing to worry about in terms of membership of finland and sweden in nato, philadelphia. oh sure, it's of luck. well, they want it please, and you learn yes. nature because they must understand that there were no threats

to them before to please. now if military contingency and infrastructure are deployed there, in fact, we will have to mirror this behavior with which it 0 kayla will have to mirror this behavior. we would touched upon this earlier, but kathy mirror are this, this kind of true build up? well, he, there are long term trends and, and, and plans to strengthen russia's military, portia in the west defeat, if we see how russia has plans, are this war. and what was the mindset in this war? was that in the west this week? the west is weakening, europe is decadent. the americans are pivoting a wage with asia. they don't as be seen of kind of stand don't have the resources to care for other parts of the world to there's an opening up for us. we are the great nation, the of the great military. now we eat ukraine and then as a big empire with sort of governing over you train, we will, we will show the rest of these decadent europeans are versatile where the power.

now of course it didn't play alden boy, ah, a, but i guess sort of depending on how this war will be concluded, that he will, the one or the other way resume to this kind of counter western portion. because we have seen a an influx cleaning. dr. was militarily re forced over the years following up to that on the same was for, for the arctic circle of especially the border to finland. then after 2020 situation in belarus, we're also we had a lot of influx under in the military. the but especially of course, security presence f as be assisting the k g b in belarus itself. so, so all these are longstanding trends and of course now putting has a kind of sticker to apply to their me. yes, it's a reaction to need to bug you. one would have or conceived that they were plan before. however, of course, the big thing is that the war in ukraine is not going to plan. ah, and,

and what ever did the old come there is the biggest determinant of how many resources financially, militarily, russia will have after the after that to do whatever it tends to do when one edition, there is really, if you got very briefly, domestically speaking, the russian government then abandons obligations towards the citizens. they go back to an era where we are safe. well, social security, economic development that's private, national security is steve matter, and this makes it more probable that all of his important, i believe, is that this escalation of rush of putting thresher has a protean face. it changes the form every time it appears. i have to go into the last round this my last question to all of you and with a brief statement, please. are we looking at a new iron curtain going down? have we had what have we not seen it already? i do believe that it already happened and it happened actually quite some time ago

. it was perhaps not very well visible from their western perspective. but they do believe that the new strategy of natal shows that their research as certain closeness between the western perspective and the eastern perspectives right now. i think it's a misleading analogy because rushes economy in society have been so open, then it's nearly impossible to close them down in the same fashion. it was after the 2nd world war. so we're going into an unprecedented geopolitical confrontation and i'm not sure this form of open economy. it's the more global integrated gone me among the bricks, countries. 700000 russians have last rush after the war. this maintains private channels and new ways of influencing what's on there. it's new we have a systemic rivalry. it's not the kind of economic different model that russia proposes as the soviet union was. but we have a different modem of governmental policy of justification. and i'm hands, we have this kind of competition, will be a different con,

there in the comments. thank you very much for watching from me on the t lab either with

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