ah, we're all i need to get to go beyond deal with as we take on the world. 8 hours, i do all the fans, we're all about the stories that matter to you. whatever you take find policeman follow with you. we are here is actually on fire made for mines. ah, ah, nice home has responded to russia's war of aggression against ukraine, with a new strategy to new members. and one of the most sweeping reforms in its entire history. it will massively increase its troops and weapon systems in eastern europe,

especially in the baltic states. the rapid reaction force will even be increased sevenfold with this night help wants to deter putin from attacks against further neighboring states. our topic today, nato f, as is protein, going toe to toe with the aggressive with one. welcome to to the point, let me introduce a my panel today. carolina bigger a political editor of kaltura liberal now poland, leading online, weekly go south, crescent nato, and military expert with european council on foreign relations. and alexei usa, pop a russia expert with ebert foundation in pearlin. i will welcome to both of you. now in research is to put its worn ukraine,

nato has undergone. it's most sweeping reform and biggest transformation since the end of the cold war put in or has achieved the opposite. it seems of what he wanted me weakening nato, pushing it back westwards. at the summit last week, metal work, gums are nearly welcomed to new members are so did now to do the right thing. there are absolutely o nature. reconfirmed is open door policy. the countries that want to apply can apply arm sweden and finland have both made it clear before the war. that although they are not members of nature, the freedom to choose, the alliance is one of the core rides are granted to them on, under paris, charged on that it would not see this fried, been diminished or limited by russia. and this was, if you, if you go back to the december 17th proposal, or they put in, put on a table to kind of forced neutralization of, of,

of eastern european and all countries are in the east for something that they've bitterly objected. so it is certainly the right thing curly that poland has demanded sort of a, an improvement of the defenses on the east and flags, more troops, more weapons are for, for many, many years. so is, was a happy now we're so is so quite happy and we understand that this is a compromise. it is perhaps not the whole that that was the wanted. but so not only poland, but also other as they estates of the eastern flank are quite happy with the results of her, of the nato summit and a new strategy. it is quite obvious that nato has never changed so much. and it is also very obvious that it is a compromise, but well, it's very difficult to have such a compromise among so many a member states. so we should be satisfied. now let's say let's, let's a look to,

to russia, this confrontation with nato. what, what's the reaction in the commentary at and moscow? what did the political circles or what, what do they think? there is a variety of voices and opinions, different shades of it. most of them are, are seeing that we told you for this is that we told you so fraction pretty much the sing masks are off. this was the plan throughout the last 30 years anyways. and now youtube's nose to its writings narrative. and now we can see, go it into fulfillment. this is the more propagandistic tone you have. then you have the, the strain of thought saying, look, it always was between the u. s. in russia and whatever happens in europe only shows that this is a bilateral conflict. this gives, of course, additional reputation to russia standard, but as also propagandistic note. and then there is a 3rd more sober. i would say toe and coming up from professional military, also diplomatic circle saying look,

this thing has never been planned like this. and the risks of inadvertent escalation are extreme with this new and they to russia border coming up with virt lacking lions to the conflict with an absolute new militarization dynamic. so is this really something we're at least it's not a doubting voice, but as the voice thing, we should really be careful about things which are happening on the european theater now. so you have different voices, but all of them treat this thing as the new normal. every one has accepted it. now nato, some have declared nato brain dead in the past, but put his aggression against ukraine, kissed the alliance awake, nay to it. now could france its biggest realignment since the cold war? let's have a quick look on land india and on the water. nato has been present in the baltics and poland since russia's activity and occupation of crimea in 2014, as a deterrent so far. now the transition from the terrans to a state of alert,

the nato troops already present on the eastern borders will be increased to brigade level. that means up to $5000.00 soldiers each and bases are to become permanent. germany has already announced its intention to lead the combat brigade and lithuania. nato's very high readiness joint task force will be increased 7 folds in the event of an emergency to 300000 soldiers. more money will flow. 1000000000 euros will be invested for the development of new technology. the path is clear, fulfilled and, and sweden to join the military alliance. with this, nato will grow to 32 member states. exercises in the event of an attack or underway like in this maneuver in the baltic sea, does nato now have a permanent grip on putin was so close? who does it does need to have a permanent grip on foot. while it,

if all the measures that are talked about now are implemented, van d, d, the capability to deter russian aggression are fairly high. and so the good, however, i mean a lot of stuff is in the details and how it will be implemented the way and, and what's the timeline? because a lot of the goals are fairly weak as like a 3 and a 1000 man to be held on the arms. not yet clear at what level of readiness, the old nato response force was sort of 30 days readiness. i don't know if we can manage 300000 men in 30 days readiness. where will it be? they believe located, et cetera. it also needs to be said that as long as the warn ukraine is ongoing, basically russia is not in a military position to do anything about what is happening now. we have seen people are barracks from cleaning group being empty to be 2nd, to reinforce it almost offensive. now the finish borders even emptied out, or people send to ukraine, or we will, might, or sort of what, however russia might react in practice. we will only see that after the end of this

war and this was still undecided we, we really don't know what is coming out of that. the so a lot of unknowns and i'd be careful, j g, long term predictions on the current situation. are you suggesting that putin or russia is too weak to oppose nato's eastern flag? now, there are 2 week your purse because they're bogged down in ukraine. ah, once they have finished, the void will depend on how the end it. and then they will initiate, pull the a deep military reform because the one you can to be very frank has not shown that the russian army is that capable as they fought. and they, they thought, deborah, and i think a lot of issues will demand a structural change or on the russian side. and this is something that actually will happen regardless of what need to will do. it has happened regardless of what need to did before. if you see the sort of the strengthening of the law than their

mention, oh, of the russian military, d d sort of westward, moving the strength of the southern and the west, the military district. that's happened long before sweden and finland vernita members or, or this war escalated. so i think we, we kind of on overestimate how much we are the drivers in russian military policies and, and on the estimate how much they drive themselves in into things. and also the relative, their relative failure of the military advances is also resonated with the russian intellectual political leads. and there are a lot of people coming back to a 1st question saying, is this really what the russian army should be capable off? so that will be a reform whatsoever, regardless of what's happening outside, whether there's a nice quote that i can bring in. now this somebody has said recently, we thought russia had the 2nd best army in the world. and always seeing that the 2nd best army in ukraine is that the, is that a fair assessment? it has been, it has been the expectation of the russian economy will collapse from the russian

army will prevail. it has come to be in a completely different way in russia, a, we were talking about nato to compare it to ne, to the military capabilities of russia versus net. i think there is nothing to be out there is no and this is why risks of further extension of conflict between moldova bid throughout the region. would i assess them as completely on non realistic at this current moment? doesn't mean that it will not happen in 2356 years down the road. but that the current moment, this is the single most challenging task for the russian army military forces to stabilize and sustain the successes and gains there. have been ukraine. so yes, i have to come in a lot of these illnesses at the plague, the russian army plagues, particularly european armies as well. there is a difference between paper and war troops actually have, there is a low state of readiness of materials. some stuff is re, all the was just sort of superficially refurbished, doesn't work that, that the wade was intended to be. of course,

the big difference in nato is there's the u. s. army, it's common, proven it's capable, is high tech at which is as long as the americans are there and are committed to europe. i don't think the russians play with and filled with that. if the wind in washington change the way we will live in the different world, but that's subject to probably further questions i want to go to, caroline carolina, poland will. poland, which has been said to be a sort of on the, on the frontline, very soon, very soon or possibly on the front immersive will. poland sent troops to the baltics or will it keep it troops? it's troops inside to prepare for any venture. i think it's still very flexible and we'll, we'll see what's going on with what will come. the ancient greek philosophy heracleitus told her once that everything flows and i think this is exactly what will be happening with this nato strategy. it's an important step. i don't have any doubts about it, but then how it look like, how i, what poland will decide

a poland as an a very important hub now ah, in playing an important role in delivering weapons also to ukraine. it we will, we will see a $11.00 comment i would just like to make about the, the capability of russia to reform its army. i dont doubt that they will undertake a reform, but the question is whether they are capable of doing it success to effectively. i mean, 1st we were told my money, experts during the pandemic that whilst the last europe was putting money into recovery fountain to pandemic, et cetera. russia was putting money into military. and this is 1st thing. and the 2nd thing is, of course, we say that there a reform will be undertaken after that of the war is over, but will the war will be over? and when will be over because it doesn't seem like an award that was going to end. it rather seems like a frozen hot conflict while we're in poland, coline rod,

which is in the russian. he exclaimed on the polish territory of if you will, are you worried about it? yes, and her polls are, are very worried about it. because it seems like this is the only exception for their stability and security that nato brings to this part of the region. and of course, not only polls so you could see the reaction of, of, of, of, but the baltic states, and that them the blockades partial, the blockade of, of the transport of good that was decided by villainous the, that the government in business. so yes, cutting in drugs is i only cali or because it seemed it's, it's a very small ah place or is only, or if i'm right, $15000.00 kilo square kilometers. so it's, it's really small. it has only 1000000 inhabitants. and yet, according to many experts, there are, there are nuclear weapons there and,

and if not, nuclear, then still a very and dangerous weapons. and i said briefly, if you could it be a, a reason for putting to move and in grad as, except for the factual data, huge symbolic potential, symbolic significance for the russian. let's see, i'm revenge just ideology. so the for case, if you will, because in russian of let a cave or crimea for colleen rad for cost on and for the coral islands on the japanese boy, that those are all areas which contribute immensely to the idea that russian is a great you region power where you can a global power if you will, and believe that is one of those. so i think it has been smart the despite a lot of tension in the beginning, paul, in the european commission, has not gone the way of escalating because it doesn't help ukraine. and i think this realization shows us that even in brussels,

people understand that it is an issue which could trigger further hostile action. so while war is going on in the ukraine, it's unwise to open up a separate different theatre of conflict. so you're right, it's super dangerous. it's very, very, very slippery and i guess and this is something we can read along the lines and the russian side with the military experts as well. the fear that it will escalate without political intent is huge. so the one thing is the political intent, and there is a marching order and we don't know how it works because no one can look into the hat of regiment. put him on the same time. you have this dynamic off, you have a lot of hardware. you had a lot of new dynamics, you have very little communication. there has been good experience between norway in russia for example, where despite all of the conflicts, the navy commanders have had a standing line so that they can discount it. would be conflict on a level below the political level at the moment. we don't have that. okay, we have the us russia contact. we don't have a soccer contact from native to russia. we don't have a navy contact in the baltic sea, which de facto now transforms into

a need to see in a way. yeah. so there is a lot of risk there. and this is why i feel that both sides will look very, very into am intensely into looking for ways to manage this new confrontation. because as you saying, and i agree, it will probably stay here for years and years and years. it was a what's the, the, the natal point of view on that was the promised di, conflicting mechanisms are between russian nato. is that, that moscow wants to talk to washington. and when he comes to common structures, a sucker is, is, is almost accepted because it's an american commander. but when we talk, for example, about the multinational cor, in shushing, which is a nature multinational core and which is responsible for military operations in the baltic area. it's not taking seriously in moscow because it's not american and the think, well, you know, in, in moscow thinking, it's sort of the pentagon commands. and all the other multinational formations are

just minions. so take, who take the orders and there's no point in talking to them. and that makes this things very difficult on the deconstructing mechanism with the u. s. still works some hold there. yes, there degraded, good, awesome, off was not really happy to talk. i'm to wish you as counterparts for some time, but there are still compared to the others. there are still functional and i did another another hotspot on this is of course of maybe in the future the black sea, again, because moscow's happy to talk to turkey. but not to anybody else, not to romania, bilateral. no, not to bulgaria, nor to any need to force there's, there's no decree balance in is set up in room in constant a. m r and multinational call se ask that that is, that is difficult. ah, however, i think without an intent to escalate, i think the incidence can be tamed. um if,

if there is an intention to escalate any incident we'll do because they kind of support the general narrative. well, be the one person who thinks that might happen that way as ukraine's president zelinski. he is certain that putin will not stop in ukraine and step continue with attacks on other countries. let's listen says browse the questioners, who will be next for russia? dulness boldly lend mould of all the baltic countries or poland. i will. the answer is all of them. she will need all of them. and she right, or is he said, right. this is historical experience. that is, sir, that is startling through his mouth. it's so he doesn't have to be factually correct as for what is going to happen to morrow or in 3 months. but 3rd, the most important experience of this region are, which contains sir, ukraine, poland, and the baltic states. and it's important not older, eastern europe it's,

it's just those rush as direct earn neighbors. that the experience is that there is a longstanding collective habit, a, which is rash and imperialism. and this russian imperialism in a new package of russian nationalism has been spreading uh, throughout the past 20 years. so that, that, that, that the cases of china, georgia and crimea of course are the proofs for, for a such argument. patience is very important because of course you might say, well, this is just fatalism. and this is just thinking that 2 russian russians are always like this. they have to behave like this. no, it's not about this. it's about knowing what the historical patterns word, what is probable when there she saw it went when the historically gra, grounded, or russian imperialism comes back. yet again, talking about russian imperialism. and if we're looking at rosters, russia's population right now is there an appetite for more action to, for, to,

to attack more countries to bring them back into the fold or with the average russian. i think the so called war party of mobilized nationalists were really pursue very open ranches. agenda is around 10 to 15 percent of the population. the same size. that's still a lot lot the same size i would dedicate to calling an anti war movement, passive or active because you've seen, for example, in comparison to the last year, you've seen an increase in derailment incidence on russian railways, which is very similar to what happens in billows up to 50 percent. there have been more than 20 attacks on military commissariat, so there is some kind of an under ground. clearly saying this is not a war we want. the problem is the middle, because this means the absolute majority doesn't care is apathetic, is fat alyssa going away? which can come from the soviet experience of not having a c in country. you policy making

a lot of violence in the past. a lot of violence on the fire and to own own society . indeed, and looking in wards looking and also facing, to be honest and unprecedented economic crisis, which has never happened before with the technological regression which will bring russia to if they succeed in mitigating the risk to the level of ninety's. if they fail in mitigating the rest of the level of the eighty's. so people frankly don't care. and this is a big problem because of course, this would be the resonating a space where some signals could be sent out to stop the aggression. unsurprisingly, the kremlin frames nato's reaction on the war in ukraine as an act of aggression. let's listen in to vladimir putin on this very matter. no, well, no, sir. yet we have nothing to worry about in terms of membership of finland and sweden and nato. finland either or 3 of them not. well, they want it please. and you learn the yas nature cuz they must understand that

there were no threats to them before. that because now if military contingency and infrastructure are deployed there, in fact we will have to mirror this behavior with which it 0 gala will have to mirror this behavior. we will touched upon this earlier, but county mirror are this, this kind of true build up? well, he, there are long term trends and, and, and plans to strengthen russia's military, portia, in the west of defeat, if we see how russia has planned or this war. and what was the mindset in this war? was that in the west this week? the west is weakening, europe is decadent or the americans pivoting a wage with asia the don't to as be seen of kind of stand don't have the resources to care for other parts of the vol to there's an opening up for us. we are the great nation, the of the great military. now we eat you crean and then as a big empire with sort of governing over you train, we will,

we will show the rest of these decadent europeans are versatile where the power. now of course, it didn't play alden boy, ah, a, but i guess sort of depending on how this war will be concluded, that he will, the one or the other way resumed to this kind of counter western portion. because we have seen a, an influx. cleaning grad was militarily re forced over the years following up to that the, the same was for, for the arctic circle of especially the border to finland. then after 2020 situation in ballard, we're also we had a lot of influx and are in the military the but especially of course security presence f as be assisting the k g b in belarus itself. so. so all these are longstanding trends and of course now putting has a kind of sticker to apply to their me. yes, it's a reaction to need to bug you. one would have a conceive that they were plan before. however, of course, the big thing is that the war in ukraine is not going to plan. ah, and,

and what ever did the old come there is the biggest determinant of how many resources financially, militarily, russia will have after the after that to do whatever it tends to do when one edition, there is roughly, if you got very briefly, domestically speaking, the russian government the then abandons obligations to what is citizens. they go back to an era where we are safe, well, social security, economic development that's private, national security is state matter, and this makes it more probable that all of his important, i believe, is that this escalation of rush of putting thresher has a protean face it changes the form, every time it appears. i have to go into the last round this my last question to all of you and with a brief statement please. are we looking at a new iron curtain going down? have we had what have we not seen it already? i do believe that it already happened and it happened actually quite some time ago

. it was perhaps not very well visible from their western perspective. but i do believe that the new strategy of natal shows that the research as 2nd closeness between the western perspective and the eastern perspectives right now. i think it's a misleading analogy because rushes economy in society have been so open, then it's nearly impossible to close them down in the same fashion. it was after the 2nd world war. so we're going into an unprecedented your political confrontation, and i'm not sure this form of open economy. it's the more global integrated connie among the bricks, countries. 700000 russians have left russia after the war. this maintains private channels and new ways of influencing what's on there. it's new we have a systemic rivalry. it's not the kind of economic different model that russia proposes as the soviet union was. but we have a different modem of governmental policy of justification. and i'm hands,

we have these kind of competition, will be a different cold war, but it will be a cool. thank you very much. this was to the point for this edition. thank you very much for watching. and if you're watching us on youtube, do share with us what you think down there in the comments. thank you very much for watching from me on the t a with

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