in many countries, education is still a privilege. tardy is one of the main causes. some young children work in mind. jobs instead of going to class and we can attend classes only after they finish working with millions of children all over the world. can't go to school with we ask why? because education makes the world more. just make up your own mind. d. w. mate for mines, nato has responded to russia's war of aggression against ukraine, with a new strategy to new members, and one of the most sweeping reforms in its entire history. it will massively increase its troops and weapon systems in eastern europe, especially in the baltic states. the rapid reaction force will even be increased

sevenfold. with this nato wants to deter, put in from attacks against further neighboring states, all topic to die. nato versus protein, going toe to toe with the aggressive with a while come to to the point, let me introduce a my panel today. kara lina bigger up political editor of kaltura liberal now poland, leading online, weekly go south, crescent nato, and military expert with european council on foreign relations. and alexei usa pop a russia expert with the little he but foundation in a pearlin eval welcome to both of you. now, in response to put in sworn ukraine, nato hasn't gone. it's most sweeping reform and biggest

transformation since the end of the cold war put in a has achieved the opposite. it seems of what he wanted may be weakening nato, pushing it back westwards. at the summit last week, major war comes are nearly welcomed to new members are so did now to do the right thing. there are absolutely oh nature. reconfirmed is open door policy . the countries that want to apply can apply arm sweden and finland have both made it clear before the war doubt. although they are not members of nature, the freedom to choose, the alliance is one of the core rides are granted to them. another parish chart and that it would not see this fried been diminished or limited by russia. and this was, if you, if you go back to the december 17th proposal, are there put in, put on a table to kind of force neutralization of, of, of eastern europe and,

and all countries are in the east for something that they bitterly objected. so it is certainly the right thing and curly that it, poland has demanded sort of a in improvement of the defenses of the east and flags, more troops, more weapons are for, for many, many years. so is water happy? now we're so is so quite happy and we understand that this is a compromise. it is perhaps not the whole that that was the wanted. but sir, not only poland, but also other as they estates of the eastern flank are quite happy with the results of her, of the nato summit and a new strategy. it is quite obvious that nato has never changed so much, and it is also very obvious that it is a compromise. but well, it's very difficult to have such a compromise among so many a member states. so we should be satisfied. now let's say let's, let's a look to,

to russia and this confrontation with nato. what, what, what's the reaction into commentary at and moscow? what did the political circles or what, what do they think? there is a variety of voices and opinions, different shades of it. most of them are, are seeing that we told you this is that we told you so fraction pretty much the sing masks are off. this was the plan throughout the last 30 years. anyways. and now you didn't notice it's russians narrative. and now we can see go it into fulfillment. this is the more propagandistic tone you have. then you have the, the strain of thought saying, look, it warwick was between the u. s. in russia and whatever happens in europe only shows that this is a bilateral conflict. there's gifts, of course, additional reputation to russia standard, but as also propagandistic note. and then there is a 3rd more sober. i would see tone coming up from professional military, also diplomatic circle saying look, this thing has never been planned like this. and the risks of inadvertent

escalation are extreme with this new and they to russia border coming up with the lacking lions to de conflict with an absolutely new militarization dynamic. so is this really something we're at least it's not a doubting voice, but as a voicing we should really be careful about things which are happening on the european theater now. so you have different voices, but all of them treat this thing as the new normal. every one has accepted it now, nato, and some have declared nato brain dead in the past, but put his aggression against the ukraine. kiss the alliance awake, nay to it now confronts its biggest realignment since the cold war. let's have a quick look on land in the air and on the water. nato has been present in the baltics and poland since russia's activity and occupation of crimea in 2014 as a deterrent so far. now the transition from the terrans to a state of alert, the nato troops already present on the eastern borders will be increased to brigade

level. that means up to $5000.00 soldiers each and bases are to become permanent. germany has already announced its intention to lead the combat brigade and lithuania. nato's very high readiness joint task force will be increased 7 folds in the event of an emergency to 300000 soldiers. more money will flow. 1000000000 euros will be invested for the development of new technology. the path is clear, fulfilled and, and sweden to join the military alliance. with this, nato will grow to 32 member states. exercises in the event of an attack or underway like in this maneuver in the baltic sea, does nato now have a permanent grip on putin was so close with does it does need to have a permanent grip on foot while it,

if all the measures that are talked about now are implemented, van d, d, the capability to deter russian aggression are fairly high. and so the good, however, i mean a lot of stuff is in the details and how it will be implemented the way and, and what's the timeline? because all of the goals are fairly weak, as like the $300000.00 men to be held on the arms. not yet clear at what level of readiness, the old nato response force was sort of 30 days readiness. i don't know if we can manage 300000 men in 30 days readiness, where will it be? they believe located, et cetera. it also needs to be said that as long as the war in ukraine is ongoing, basically russia is not in a military position to do anything about what is happening now. we have seen people are barracks from cleaning, dropping, empty to be sent to reinforce it almost offensive. now to finish borders even emptied out, or people send to ukraine, or we will, might, or sort of what, however russia might react in practice. we will only see that after the end of this

war and this was still undecided we, we really don't know what is coming out of that. the so a lot of unknowns and i'd be careful, jake, long term predictions on the current situation. are you suggesting that putin or russia is too weak to oppose nato's eastern flag? now, there are too weak your purse because they're bogged down in ukraine. ah, once they have finished award will depend on how they're ended and then they will initiate, pull the, a deep military reform because the one you trained to be very frank has not shown that the russian army is that capable as they fought. and they, they thought, deborah, and i think a lot of issues will demand a structural change or on the russian side. and this is something that actually will happen regardless of what nature will do. it has happened regardless of what need to did before. if you see the sort of the strengthening of the law than the mention oh, of the russian military, d, d sort of westward,

moving the strength of the southern and the western military district that happened long before sweden, finland vernita members or, or this war escalated. so i think we'd be kind of an overestimate how much we are the drivers in russian military policies and, and on the estimate how much they drive themselves in into things. also the relative, the relative failure of the military advances is also resonated with the russian intellectual and political elite. and there are a lot of people coming back to the 1st question. seeing is this really what the russian army should be capable off? so that will be a reform whatsoever, regardless of what's happening outside, whether there's a nice quote that i can bring in. now this somebody has said recently, we thought russia had the 2nd best army in the world. and now we see that the 2nd best army in ukraine is that the, is that a fair assessment? it has been, it has been the expectation of the russian economy will collapse,

and the russian army will prevail. it has come to be in a completely different way in russia, a, we were talking about ne, to, to compare it to ne, to the military capabilities of russia versus net. i think there is nothing to be ad. there is no and this is why risks or further extension of conflict between moldova bid to the region. would i assess them as completely on non realistic at this current moment? doesn't mean that it won't not happen and 2356 years down the road. but at the current moment, this is the single most challenging task for the russian army military forces to stabilize and sustain the successes and gains there have in your korean. so yes, i have to come in a lot of these illnesses of the plague, the russian army plagues, particularly european armies as well. there is a difference between paper and war troops actually have, there is a low state of readiness of materials. some stuff is re, all the was just sort of superficially refurbished, doesn't work that, that the wade was intended to be. of course, the big difference in nato is there's the u. s. army comma proven is capable,

is high tech at which is as long as the americans are there and are committed to europe. i don't think the russians play with and fiddle with that. if the wind in washington change the will, we will live in a different world, but that's subject to probably further questions i want to go to carolyn or alina poland, will. poland, which has been said to be a sort of on the, on the front line very soon, very soon or possibly on the front immersive will poland sent troops to the baltics or will it keep it troops, its troops inside to prepare for any venture? i think it's still very flexible and we'll see what's going on with what will come . the ancient greek philosophers heracleitus told her once that everything flows and i think this is exactly what will be happening with this nato strategy. it's an important step. i don't have any doubts about it, but then how it look like, how i, what poland will decide a poland as an a very important hub now ah,

in playing an important role in delivering weapons also to ukraine. it we will, we will see are $11.00 comment i would just like to make about the, the capability of russia to reform its army. i dont doubt that they will undertake a reform, but the question is whether they are capable of doing it success to effectively. i mean, 1st we were told by many experts during the pandemic that whales, the last europe was putting money into recovery fountain to pandemic, et cetera. russia was putting money into military, and this is 1st thing. and the 2nd thing is, of course, we say that there a reform will be undertaken after there at the war is over, but will the war will be over? and when will be over because it doesn't seem like an award that was going to end. it rather seems like a frozen hot conflict while we're in poland, coline rod,

which isn't the russian, he exclaimed on the polish territory of if you will. are you worried about it? yes, and her polls are, are very worried about it because it seems like this is the only exception for their stability and security that nato brings to this part of the region. and of course, not only poll, so you could see the reaction of, of, of, of, but the baltic states, and that them the blockades partial look, blockade of, of the transport of good that was decided by villainous the, that the government in business. so yes, cut in drugs is i only county or because it seemed it's, it's a very small awe place or it's only if i'm right, $15000.00 kilo square kilometers. so it's, it's really small. it has only 1000000 inhabitants. and yet, according to many experts, there are earn their nuclear weapons there and. and if not, nuclear, then still

a very and dangerous weapons. and i said briefly, if you could it be a, a reason for putting to move and in grad as, except for the factual data, a huge symbolic potential was symbolic significance for the russian. let's see, um, revenge just ideology. so the for case, if you will, because in russian is let a cave or crimea for colleen rad for cost on and for the coral islands on the japanese board. those are all areas which contribute immensely to the idea that russian is a great your region. power or even a global power if you will include that is one of those. so i think it has been smart the despite a lot of tension and if again in poland, european commission has not gone the way of escalating because it doesn't help ukraine. and i think this realization shows us that even in brussels, people understand that it is an issue which could trigger further hostile action.

so while war is going on in the ukraine, it's unwise to open up a separate different theatre of conflict. so you're right, it's super dangerous. it's very, very, very slippery and i guess and this is something we can read along the lines and the russian side of the military experts as well. the fear that it will escalate without political intent is huge. so the one thing is the political intent and there is a marching order and we don't know how it works because no one can look into the hat of legend. put him on the same time. you have this dynamic off, you have a lot of hardware. you had a lot of new dynamics, you have very little communication that has been good experience between norway in russia for example. where despite all of the conflicts, the navy commanders have had a standing line so that they can do escalate with the conflict on a level below the political level. at the moment. we don't have that. okay, we have the u. s. russia contact, we don't have a sucker contact from nato to russia. we don't have a navy contact in the baltic sea, which de facto now transforms into

a need to see in a way. yeah, so there is a lot of risk there and this is why i feel that both sides will look very, very into am intensely into looking for ways to manage this new confrontation. because as you saying, and i agree, it will probably stay here for years. and years and years was a, what's the, the, the natal point of view on that was the promised di, conflicting mechanisms are between russia and nato. is that, that moscow wants to talk to washington. and when he comes to common structures, a sucker is, is, is almost accepted because it's an american commander. but when we talk, for example, about the multinational cor, in shushing, which is a nature multinational core and which is responsible for military operations in the baltic area. it's not taking seriously in moscow because it's not american and the think, well, you know, in, in moscow thinking, it's sort of it, the pentagon commands and all, all the other multinational formations are just minions who take,

who take the orders. and there's no point in talking to them. and that makes this things very difficult on de deconstructing mechanism with the u. s. still works somehow there. yes, there degraded, good, awesome off was not really happy to talk. i'm to wish you as counterparts for some time, but there are still compared to the others. there are still functional and i did another another hotspot on this was of course of maybe in the future the black sea . again, because a mosque i was happy to talk to turkey, but not to anybody else, not to romania, bilateral, no, not to bulgaria, nor to any natal forest there. there's no decree. balance in is set up in room in constant a. m r and multinational cor se, doesn't that, that is, that is difficult. ah. however, i think without an intent to escalate, i think the incidence can be tamed. um, if, if there is an intention to escalate any incident will do because they kind of

support the general narrative. well, be the one person who thinks that might happen that way is ukraine's president zelinski. he is certainly put in will not stop in ukraine and step continue with a tax on other countries. let's listen in this browser. the question is, who will be next for russia? donors? fluently lead mold of all the baltic countries or poland. i will. the answer is, all of them. she will need all of them right or is exaggerated. this is historical experience at this sir, that is stocking through his mouth. it's so it doesn't have to be factually correct as for what is going to happen to morrow or in 3 months. but the, the most important experience of this region are, which contains, are ukraine, poland, and the baltic states. and it's important not older eastern europe. it's,

it's just those rush as direct earn neighbors. that the experience is that there is a longstanding collective habit, a, which is russian imperialism, and this russian imperialism in a new package of russian nationalism has been spreading throughout the past 20 years. so the that, that, that the cases of china, georgia and crimea of course are the proofs for, for such argumentation. it's very important because of course, you might say, well, this is just fatalism. and this is just thinking that russian russians are always like this. they have to behave like this. no, it's not about this. it's about knowing what the historical patterns word, what is probable when there she saw it went when the historically gra, grounded, or russian imperialism comes back. yet again, talking about russian imperialism. and if we're looking at rosters, russia's population right now is there an appetite for more action to, for, to,

to attack more countries to bring them back into the fold or with the average russian. i think the so called war party of mobilized nationalists who really pursue are very open ranches. agenda is around 10 to 15 percent of the population. the same size. there's still a lot lot the same size i would dedicate to calling an anti war movement. passive. we're active because you've seen, for example, in comparison to the last year, you've seen an increase in derailment incidence on russian railways, which is very similar to what happens and billows up to 50 percent. they have been more than 20 attacks on military commissariat, so there is some kind of an underground clearly saying this is not a war we want. the problem is the middle, because this means that the absolute majority doesn't care is apathetic, is fatter listed going away, which can come from the soviet experience of not having a c in country policy, making a lot of violence in the past. a lot of violence and the files and to own own society

. indeed, and looking in wards looking and also facing to be honest. an unprecedented economic crisis, which has never happened before with the technological regression which will bring russia to if they succeed in mitigating the risk to the level of the 90 s. if they fail and mitigating the rest of the level of the eighty's. so people, frankly don't care. and this is a big problem because of course, this would be the resonating a space where some signals could be sent out to stop the aggression. and surprisingly, the kremlin frames nato's reaction on the war in ukraine as an act of aggression. let's listen in to vladimir. put him on this very matter. no, sir. yet we have nothing to worry about in terms of membership of finland and sweden, in nato and india. oh, sure with him not. well, they want it please, and you learn yes nature because they must understand that there were no threats to

them before the big now if military contingency and infrastructure are deployed there, in fact we will have to mirror this behavior. but each it 0 kayla will have to mirror this behavior. we will touched upon this earlier. but can he mirror or this, this kind of true build up? well, he, there are long term trends and i'm and plans to strengthen russia's military. portia, in the west defeat, if we see how russia has plans, are this war. and what was the mindset in this war was that if the west is weak, the west is weakening. europe is decadent or the americans are pivoting a wage with asia that don't as be seen of kind of stand don't have the resources to care for other parts of the world to there's an opening up for us. we are the great nation, the of the great military. now we eat ukraine and then as a big empire with sort of governing over you train, we will, we will show the rest of these decadent europeans, very versatile,

where the power. now of course, it didn't play alden ah, a, but i guess sort of depending on how this war will be concluded, that he will, the one or the other way resumed to this kind of counter western portion. because we have seen a, an influx cleaning. dr. was militarily reform over the years following up to that the same was for, for the arctic circle of especially the border to finland. then after 2020 situation in belarus, we're also we had a lot of influx under in the military. the but especially of course, security presence f as be assisting the k g b in belarus itself. so, so all these are longstanding trends and of course now putting has a kind of sticker to apply to their me. yes, it's a reaction to need to bug you. one would have or conceived that they were planned before. however, of course, the big thing is that the voice ukraine is not going to plan. ah, and,

and whatever, or the old come there is the biggest determinant of how many resources financially, militarily, russia will have after the, after that to do whatever it tends to do. when one edition, there is really, if you got very briefly, domestically speaking, the russian government then abandons obligations towards the citizens. they go back to an area where we are safe. well, social security, economic development that's private, national security is steve matter, and this makes it more probable that all of his important, i believe, is that this escalation of rush of putting thresher has a protean face. it changes the form every time it appears. i have to go into the last round this my last question to all of you and with a brief statement, please. are we looking at a new iron curtain going down? have we have we have we not seen it already? i do believe that it already happened and it happened actually quite some time ago

. it was perhaps not very well visible from their western perspective. but they do believe that the new strategy of natal shows that the research as certain closeness between the western perspective and the eastern perspectives right now. i think it's a misleading analogy because rushes economy in society have been so open, then it's nearly impossible to close them down in the same fashion. it was after the 2nd world war. so we're going into an unprecedented geopolitical confrontation and i'm not sure this form of open economy. it's the most global integrated, con, among the bricks. countries, 700000 russians have left rush after the war. this maintains private channels and new ways of influence. it was still on there, it's new we have a systemic rivalry. it's not the kind of economic different model that russia proposed as the soviet union was. but we have a different modem of governance of policy, of justification and, and hands. we have this kind of competition will be a different cold war,

but it will be a cool. thank you very much. this was to the point for this edition. thank you very much for watching. and if you're watching us on youtube, do share with us what you think down there in the comments. thank you very much for watching from the other t a with

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