ah, a mercy she, when i arrived here, i slept with a sick of people in a room as a 9th in it was harsh. fair. i even got white hair is learning the german language head. yeah. love. this keeps me and great opportunity to interact with. you want to know their story for my grants verifying, and reliable information for my grants. as the crisis in ukraine continues to intensify, so does the relentless wolf wards in and around the conflict. vladimir putin shocks many by saying rushes invasion of ukraine has only just begun. one thing is for sure with have you shelling, pounding residential areas. it's civilians who are paying the debt you price.

ukrainian side meanwhile, says it's seeking to amass an arm, a 1000000 troops. so on to the point we asked after capturing large pods of don, boss, will putin had enough time for more a warm welcome to to the point with these guests city. liana fix is a political analyst focusing on russia in eastern europe. more it's gutman is chief reporter with the german magazine, cicero and joining us from bon is my ukranian colleague, roman gone to ranko, who works with d, w's fresh and language service. thank you so much to all of you for joining us today. leanna, i'd like to start with you, we are planning president followed emer. so lensky is speaking of this massive

counter offensive to regain territories in the country south. is it possible? is that even possible for ukraine to do that? well, the quite obviously needs at this point, some kind of success and at the moment it would be easier to achieve the successes in the south. all that is still very difficult. then in the east where wash it's basically throwing all it's actually on the ukrainian forces and pushing forwards, meter by mito, kilometer by kilometer. at the same time, it's also a tactical decision to announce this plan to prevent the washer will focus on all troops in the east, but also to we some of the troops in the east and to give us the opportunity to move to the south. and there to keep some process focused in the south. but obviously with regard to the weapons available to the ukranian army, we need much more western support to ukraine to make such an offensive in the south successful. we'll get to the weapons in

a minute. i'd like to get your opinion. do you think that ukraine can even do that with the current capacity that they have? i think at the moment or ukraine is not capable of free capturing hassan region, for example. because it's one question to have 1000000 people who are ready to go and it's another question to equip them properly. i just have one example of a friend to join the army several months ago, and he's mainly equipped with stuff that her friends, the, made it to him. friends bought this equipment. and of course, it's her a big operation against russians in the caps on region. we have fortified their positions over the last month. it's a difficult area to do an offensive operation. and a yes, if you said ukraine,

it meets more than just soldiers to recapture this area. that's right, that's only one part before we ask roman about him. what the possibilities are, i'd like to listen to what the russian president vladimir putin had to say about that the war is just beginning. let's isn't it? shouldn't you exclusion on of her that we hear that they wanted defeat us on the battlefield? what can i say to let them try it? that the radio, it's a tragedy for the ukrainian people, but it looks like that's where it's heading, nor she'll go. but every one should know that we haven't even started anything and earnestly at issuing initially. so the, we have russian president saying that the war is just beginning. i'd like to have the reaction of roman who is joining us from bond. who is the russian president addressing here of course he's addressing, am ukraine. he's addressing the worst as ukraine's main support of fourpence.

and of course, he's also addressing his domestic public in russia. so i think it is indeed a point to where we can say this war is just at the beginning of this were very long conflict probably years ahead of us and russia is really holding back some reserves. it is using old soviet weapons ascending troops from far away regions and keeping all those best equipped troops from moscow or saint petersburg. so we're in the west of russia, western part of russia. they are participating in this war, but not on a large scale. so russia is preparing for a war of attrition. we're seeing this war of attrition happening. and ukraine needs much more weapons to be able to stand for a long time to, to be able to, to try and recapture maybe some cities in the south at the moment. i think

you can and will be winning this at this moment. if it can stop the rush in advance. so stopping russians in the south, stopping them in the east and on bass would be a victory for the moment for you. crane. i think just to add perhaps to that at the same time, it's also a strategic communication operation. as we're said towards the west to convey the impression of, well, your support as you tell, it doesn't make any sense because we can throw as much fold isn't as much material into the war as we want. witness to some extent, of course, over blown because wash, i had some very heavy casualties, 24000 soldiers as estimated by, by the british side. so this is also a communication attempt in a propaganda attempt to what the west, to play into war fatigue, to play into the energy crisis into the inflation white say some problems in western countries. do you think it's working the propaganda attempt to tell the

west this will be a long war. it makes no sense for you to support to be unified with this as solidarity towards ukraine. well, as i look at the german society, for example, i have the feeling that it's working together with this inflation and energy crisis that we see in our country. because the people for the 1st time now they understand that the impact of the war is happening here. people will see over the next month, the energy prices rising really the lot. and of course, people will pose the question to their government. is it worth it? isn't that worth? maybe we need a compromise with russia. we heard these voices over the last 4 months, but they will be stronger even over the next month. and a bit at this moment, put it in ascending the sign. we haven't started yet, or we can do much more. of course, i have the feeling that this can work. you know, before we start talking about,

you just mentioned energy price. that's a really big topic, almost for another show. let's focus on the situation on the ground with many saying that the war has just started now in february, but the war has been going on for years and years. so the fighting in some areas of the dunbar since 2014. after the annexation of crimea pro russian separatist wanted the east in ukraine, written to secede from the rest of ukraine. and russian troops gradually advanced in the danbury with deadly consequences for the civilians living there. a man's body is recovered from the rubble of a multi story apartment building. neighbors looking on are shocked by the rescue work inches cpr in don. ask, oh blast. all that remains of the high rise is a pile of rubble. during the night rush and rockets hit the building, killing more than 40 residence. only a few survivors could be rescued. now we are

always afraid, afraid at night and during the day because we never know when something might happen to us ukrainian soldier on home leave finds his grandmother's body under the rubble. i'm at a loss for words. most of all, i would like to kill putin with seemingly unlimited supplies of artillery and ammunition rushes war machine appears to be slowly but fiercely moving forward. meanwhile, russia has conquered almost the entire don bass region. what a rush has plans for the occupied don bass really terrible situation for the civilians living there and they are pounded boy. this russian missiles. i'd like to pass the question on to you. leanna, what

a russia's plan for the occupied region. where what we see, what now is that russia pursuing a defacto annexation of this weekend? we have politicians coming in, we have washing structures installed in this region. ukrainian passports that are taken away and replaced by washing paths. but so that's a strategy that we already know from the past. but what is crucial here is, and i think it's really a without a good question to ask if vladimir putin has the appetite for more war. he definitely has because we really should not fall into this trap of thinking. well, he just wants the next little ones legions and then he will be satisfied. this is not a question about this is not a war, but how it totally this is a war about existence about the existence of your claim as an independent nation and washers already. now, beyond those territories, very active beyond those toasted will continue to advance towards odessa, if it has the opportunity. so the question of, you know, can we appease washer if you claim somehow agrees to a cease fire and to those regions remaining and a washing control is really not

a serious question. and this is not what moscow is planning. but for some, it is still a serious question saying that we should talk to russia, they should be back again on the negotiation table. what do you think it is in there been so many red lines by the west when he comes to russia? and putin says, i can continue as long as i want to go. how is it possible to stop? and i think her, the only possibility is to show strength. this is the only thing actually, that protein understands. we've seen this over the last decade where we had several attempts off talking to pooty and we had lots of politicians in the west is that we have to find a compromise. we have to have the russians. but unfortunately this didn't work. and those who haven't understood this on february 24th, or maybe it's their problem, putting only understands strength. and so we, on the one hand,

we have to strengthen ukraine concerning the economy concerning the military. on the other hand, we have to find solutions for, for our own economies. this concerns, mainly guess because we are very, very much reliant on russian gas. and we have to redesign our energy system over the upcoming 2 years. not buying gas in other places after these 2 years, but somehow getting rid of gas because if we are just buying gas in other places, this will keep the gas prices on the high level. and this will be very useful to approach in finding a long term solution to the dependence of fresh and gas. i'd like to ask roman about the report that we just saw. would rushes plans also considering that russia wants now to have this fast procedure for ukrainians?

to get a russian passports, what is the plan on a long term? i agree with the owner has just said so the plan is to destroy ukraine as an independent state and russian keeping on this path. and it is not going to try to fulfill this game quickly. so it, russia is trying to, to cut ukraine in pieces because it is just too big to destroy it quickly. and that is why russia has occupied some territories and is now trying to integrate them into russia by, by changing the currency. so you pay not in your opinion, but in russian noble. they are changing the school programs. they're sending russian politicians russian military to control and of course they are trying to suppress the ukrainian opposition in those territories, the ukrainians,

willing to fight behind the front lines. so this will take some time that i think the russia is probably will continue to occupy much more territory by fall maybe in winter. and the west is already doing a lot and what we have seen so far and the west is also facing a dilemma. if they are providing ukraine with more deadly weapons, like those high mars rocket launchers, which are very effective as we have seen in the last few days against russian ammunition depose and command post. and then the west is asking the question, where is the red line for putting when he will head back and he threatened to heat the targets in he didn't specify, but he said we could, we could hit target that we haven't hit before. and she probably implied the ukrainian government may be the kind of defense minister,

so targets in the ukraine and capital or maybe targets in other major cities are military targets or targets, maybe more uh for where, where you kind of command is. so it is, it is very difficult for the west. on the one hand, they want to help. they want to supply more weapons, but they have to find a way not to cross a certain line which is not seen. of course, nobody knows where that line is not to make this war much worse than it already is rolling. you mentioned the civil society and also the ukrainian or position induced occupied territories. and i would like to take a look at and the people living there, the people living in this place is this occupied cities that ukraine wants to retake an hour. you crank responded. nick connelly spoke with 2 citizens in the southern read, southern city of had thought due to security concerns, they wanted to stay anonymous. and this is what they had to say. a beginning,

we all thought the occupation would be over in a week. it was only a few months in that we finally understood that the russians were here to stay a little while it done before it got fully of military vehicles. are many places where we're actually, julian george's. and of course you don't hear about that. many people working left, i see also many posters, policies on facebook, dealing disorder person is missing. when the russians came, we were expecting things would be as bad as in mary paul know, we were scared to even look at the window. it was, can, it was a fact that we can leave the house and buy food. we seems like a miracle. luckily,

i was sure did the gradients delivery dick was to lose how and when. and we got the idea, does it to become a marathon rather than a string? but how realistic is the ukranian armies fund re conquest of the south and is russia wants to offer the ukrainians the russian past? would ukraine is telling them to leave the area as quickly as possible? how can they work more it's i think there's a very important psychological problem. for example, in this region of kept phone at the moment, because the longer it takes for ukraine to take back these regions, or the more these people get, we'll get used to russian occupation. of course you crate is telling them or don't or collaborate with the russians. we will come back. but of course, if you are

a citizen of your thoughts and you're waiting for months and months and years for you to come, you have to somehow live your life or leave the reasons, leave the region. so this is what we saw also in the don bus region 8 years ago. the ukrainians couldn't take these reasons back and of course, people after some time, either they left the region or they stayed there and they somehow adapted to russian occupation till longer process. they know that this war will continue also for months. if not years, they enter. what will that make with the western solidarity for ukraine? we have the 7 countries saying that they will support ukraine as long as it takes you think that there is a unity to support ukraine or that many countries. and i'll say this is really getting difficult for us as well. i think we still have unity at the moment, but the closer winter comes, the more urgent the energy problems become. the louder will become calls that we

need is fire. and my concern is that at some point, moscow will play to this fears as it does already now. and for instance, propose a some kind of toxic proposal about, well, once they've occupied pet, the entirety of the region of the nets to offer a ceasefire, which obviously would not be credible. please fire from the wash inside. we know from wash as war strategy in syria that they offer seat via just to take a break for their own forces and come back even stronger. but the temptation will be there in the west, too, to say, well, perhaps we should try a cease fire and possibly to pressure. you quain you quite as light, it's lesson from 2014 a ceasefire doesn't work. russia will come back and even worse than it has been in the past. but for the west, this will be a challenge if we see this kind of poisoned pill for moscow. roman liana de said, ukraine learned it's lesson from 2014. what about the west?

well, we're still not sure why the, the lessons were properly learned because of germany. and when we speak about germany is to having a huge problem with russian guess something rich morris was more it's was talking about. so the dependency is so immense over 50 percent of a german guess comes from russia. and we cannot solve this problem here in germany. fast enough and ukraine needs a germany actually to stop buying russian gas because every dollar, every euro that germany pays for. it goes then probably to russian weapons to the russian army and is then turned against a crane. so there are still lessons to be learned and quickly. i would like just a few words if i may, to the, to the people living now in the occupied territories in the south or in the east, in the east. it's a different different story because much part of don't boss or some part of it was

already occupied in 2014, but it was a 1000, it's a completely new situation and nobody knows how ukrainians living the those millions of people will react in a few months or in one year, leaving under russian occupation, i presume that as long as russia is strong and can suppress ukrainians living there and trying to oppose the new russian regime. as long as long as russia is strong, there will be probably no, no great changes there. but when russia is weakened by western sanctions, then i think an uprising is possible, but it is still too early to tell when this will happen and under which 2nd circumstances brian just mentioned the sanctions and we have all this discussion when it comes to north june 1, they have the annual maintenance, we have this turban in, in canada, they will now be sent to germany and then to russia, to activate this

a gas pipeline against you think it's credible when the west says we have the sanctions for russia. but as when they start affecting us more than we say, ok you, they're not that important anymore. well, there's a reason why there are no sanctions on gas so fine wide. there are oil sanctions that will only come into place at the end of the year. and that is exactly the dependency of the west on washing gas. so the idea is also when it comes to this turban, it is to make clear that a dish washer, which is cutting off the gas and the germany is not sort of, it's not, it's not the fold of the german government. and this is obviously domestic communication towards the german public. if gas supplies from wash, i get further cut. it is a very we active strategy. it is not a pro active strategy of trying to push on moscow, for instance, through caps and gas prices. em, but it is a strategy to fill the storages and to try to out play moscow. and i'm not sure who will have the upper hand in this game. i wanted to add better,

maybe the story with a turbine. it's also was also done in this way to not give moscow an extra argument . it's propaganda that this is why we don't supply gas to germany any more or to europe. i want to add one more thing to this gas question we see in germany, or how difficult the situation is concerning gas constant gas prices. but of course it, germany is a strong country economically. financially. we must also look at other countries from the european union, especially in the east countries like bulgaria, who are even more dependent on russian gas and who are economically much or more weak. how will they come through this crisis? is germany can pay extra money to its citizens, her to those groups offer the i smell, isn't that rich? but what will bulgaria do?

this is her very difficult question and the european union should address this question. now, we only have a few minutes left. i would like sued if we go back to the question at the beginning, does putin have more appetite for why i think we all agree that he has that you will continue? how can this be stopped? what should be the signal that the west should send? now to say this is enough, i think the west needs to get into a strategic planning when it comes to weapon deliveries and to link weapon deliveries to a clear war aim, which should be ideally on the greater scale, the pushing back russia to the pre invasion lines, but if they're smaller aims, for instance, we taking her son in the weapon delivery should be bill, it should be a calibrated to what this aims rather than coming at hawk once the west has those available. so we needed to teach it planning. what does he quite need in 3 months

and 6 months also? and it, because domestic industries and military indices that from industries need to adapt to produce these amounts of munition and of weapons. how do you see it? roman, how can this hunger for more? there putin has be stopped. now, what are the signals that the west should sent? well, the signal should be that the worst is ready to take pain and to help your crime. i mean it, of course, for them by and by showing that it is ready to get rid of for russian gas supplies as soon as possible and probably sooner that we think. now at this moment, this is most important. i think i need to also continue to supply ukraine with our, with weapons, because this is the only on the only thing that pushing understands strength and strengths, means weapons and welcomes. and once again weapons, you mentioned the strength already. is there a saw in something where you say the west really need to do that now quickly?

i think the, the west should not only supply ukraine with weapons, but it should also train ukraine and soldiers in the west. and this is something that is actually happening at the moment already and the good side because it means that the west has a strategy and not only for weeks, but for mom, a good sign. thank you so much more. it's liana roman also, and all of you for watching this show to the point. if you have any comments, you can leave it on our e mail for a comment on you too. thanks so much up with

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