devastating, how is this stuff to how we can with cars carry the effects of climate change? i mean, felt worldwide before a station in the rain forest continued, carbon dioxide emissions have risen again. young people all over the world are committed to climate protection. what impact will because change doesn't happen on its own make up your own mind. the w need for mines ah, russia's war on ukraine was initially seen as a regional conflict, but it is having increasingly global repercussions up ending geo politics and sparking tensions far beyond europe. both sides are forging new alliances with

countries. they only recently kept at arm's length. russia turning to an iran still aspiring to be a nuclear power. joe biden swallowing his pride in a controversial visit to saudi arabia, which just 3 years ago, he called a pariah. so on to the point were asking new alliances in troubled times. is it anything goes for by and then put in with hello and welcome to to the point. it's a pleasure to greet our guests. susanna koga is foreign correspondent for the german news magazine. dish beagle. and it's a pleasure to welcome tyson barker. he's an expert on foreign and trans atlantic relations and geo politics. at the german council on foreign relations, d g, a. p and rica, ham uncovers business and economics for the berlin based daily. the tats,

tyson barker, many a commentators referred to biden's fist bump with saudi arabia's crown prince as nothing less than a cow tau. will it succeed in actually reviving the u. s. saudi alliance and to delivering the benefits. biden's looking for the optics were terrible. the optics were, you know, reverberated through congress through washington through the united states. but the substance of the meeting it with the gcc plus 3 were quite successful. and i think that they show the embryonic a beginning of a new are coming together between saudi arabia and united states and some areas in where it's quite important for, for the region. how do you measure success in that case? or there are some, there are some, you know, baby steps deliverables for example, the decision to have is really overflight rights to saudi arabia. the flight from a, from israel to jetta is a 1st time a flight and that is opening up

a new kind of soft exception of saudi arabia to the abraham courts. this normalization of court, but that the trump administration agreed to with several arab states to normalize relations with israel. that's one. another is a, the china is trying to play an increasing role in the middle east through the sale of technology, particularly walkways fi, g technology, and the decision by a saudi arabia to accede to the open ran alliance. and finally, the issue of the yemen of weapons draw down the standstill in yemen. starts to open up the possibility for closer security, the relationship between the united states and saudi arabia, because that is a big sticking point for congress. and there's one element, tyson didn't stress their susanna, but many people say it's the element that this visit was all about. namely, oil in the beginning of this war, there was a lot of talk in the west about shared values and the need to fight for western

values. have geo politics and resources now eclipsed values. and i mean, it glimpsed, i would say that they would go far beyond what, what's, what's happening. and before that, i mean there, they have been 70 something years of very close relations between saudi arabia and, and, and the u. s. and the was very much about oil, which was extremely much about my oil, but also about regional influence. it was also about controlling iran. it was also about a business. i mean, saudi arabia is such a heavy vase in that and that you cannot ignore it. and i think there was a hope, a, i mean, obviously in the, in the, by that administration maybe also are obviously in the, in the obama administration, that you could refrain from that very difficult relationship. because certainly is, are you're a bit is not only exporting oil, it's also exporting a very extreme aversion of islam which has had

a lot of very bad repercussions. and they were of the opinion that they could be more independent of that. and now it turns out, and it actually thou, turns out in particular, with the ukraine war that you need, you need the, a corporation, a good corporation with saudi arabia, for many reasons, starting with if the, if the nuclear agreement with iran is not, is not be able to cannot be revived, which has a lot of a lot of consequences and it looks like read like that, that about oil prices. yes. there is not so much there is not so much of that a, so you're a big can do now to to deliver more oil, which has a lot of reasons. but at the end of the day, certainly, i mean, opec is sitting on it presiding over over the whole system of, of, of,

of, of oil deliveries. so it's a very important meeting, i think. and i want to come back to that point but, but are rica of let's just take a look at the memorandum that was signed by iran and russia because on his own trip to the middle east, putin was also talking about oil. and iran is now offering a welcome market will, in fact, this stronger relationship between russia, iran and turkey. um that was on show there at the summit in tehran, will that deliver the benefits that they very isolated russian president needs? well, you know, it was very interesting to see that in fact, the roads are now reversed because now iran is the strong partner. it's no longer russia. and that is, of course, you mediating for russia. and the same thing will happen with china is china, again, is much stronger than russia. so what you could see there is that russia is losing

its status as a superpower, because it exhausts itself in the ukraine. it is not going to in this war, it is, will be a poor state of afterwards. and that was on show in, at this meeting. now, looking at turkey, i think that for ad won a, the u. s. in fact, is more important than russia. the whole safety of turkey bases let him in the end on the support of the united states. but of course, you know, what to add on tries to do is to somehow it will be an independent power between russia and in the united states to get some leverage points there. and of course, he wanted to have an agreement on north syria because he wants to evade there. but that is something that iran and russia won't agree to. and i want to pick up on exactly that point in just a moment. but 1st, let's take a closer look at biden and put in middle eastern speed, dating in search of new and distinctly unholy alliances. for those 2

fists would, harold, a new era between the u. s. and saudi arabia, relations between the 2 countries have long been at an all time low. ever since saudi arabia had saudi journalist antecedent jamal kashodi murdered. now the turn around, let me state, clearly, as united states is going to remain active, engage partner in the militia. but rather than concrete results, the u. s. president was only given a vague promise by saudi arabia to increase oil production in the future, significantly more harmonious, at least outwardly, was the tripartite meeting of russia, iran and turkey in tehran. it's main focus was syria, where all 3 countries are engaged in war. also discussed on the sidelines, a possible iranian drone delivery to russia and how to handle sanctions. for president putin, the meeting was above all

a message to you as president biden and the west. russia is also engaged in this region potent or biden, who has the upper hand and the middle east. tyson, what would you say to that question in the face of the u. s. chaotic departure from afghanistan in the face of what is often perceived as us indifference in the face of the fighting and syria. does anybody really believe biden's from sense to remain as he says and engage partner? well, i think that, you know, these relationships are very deep. the relationship the united states has with israel, with egypt, with saudi arabia, with the gulf states has clearly predated biden. and is something that has many, many tenants within the u. s. political system, including in congress, there are different sensitive points, different also the private sector. um, so i think that this is something that is a cautious erm. erm nearing

a cautious intensification of engagement and it is a situation that is driven by events that's obvious. you know, the united states also for its domestic constituencies needs to be showing that it's doing something to alleviate oil and gas prices also in the united states. so optically that is part of the reason why he went to saudi arabia is to say to the american people, look, i'm doing this for, for a, this is a part of foreign policy for the middle class, i'm trying to deliver it home, but it's going to take time for those kind of policies to yield. dividends, says n a. how do you see it? would you say as, as a tyson does, that there are reasons to believe that the u. s. still has a strong relationship with countries in the middle east, or could this perceived pout how to saudi arabia actually heard it, particularly in the eyes of strategic rivals and adversaries, is definitely so that saudi arabia has a close as close ties with, with,

with the u. s still, they're very much dependent on her weapons and deliveries and their contracts long running contracts. i mean there is no way that saudi arabia could say, we don't want to have anything to do with us any longer, or vice versa. so it's more about strategic demonstrate as a demonstration of a strategic move of the u. s. is making here. they want to show to iran, to russia are we are still in. we are still having a leverage here on the it was also assigned the, the times when i saw your regular was isolated because of the murder of java casualty that this, this chapter is closed now. so, so, but this has a price and the price is,

i'm showing showing that this close cover cooperation is still in place and it's a deal. i mean, they also get quite a, quite a leeway now to work on their issues with iran at the same time. saudi arabia is interested and america's interested to keep the ceasefire in yemen. and, and all this is a, it's, it's a package. it's a big package and what, what it ties into them. it just mentioned about the upper hammer court that the corporation with israel, which is a new alliance which is built has, which is going to be built up. i mean, is a shift which they demonstrate. so, or we could, if it's a package or are the benefits are going to outweigh the costs in terms of the loss of a loss of that appearance of values and, and morally guided foreign policy that biden had sworn to put in place?

well, as tyson said, i think the main point was that a bind wanted to bring down the oil prices and that might work. but the problem is that the price is the crude oil. i'm not the main problem because the price of the crude oil are not higher than they were, let's say in 2011. the problem is that you have a shortage of res finding capacity. and so the oil is not let expend the crude oil is not that expensive, but a diesel and a gas line, a very, very expensive now, and this will not change because then no, right, no refining capacity is left. so you not in of a, the problem for buying could be that now everyone in the united states is hoping that the gas prices will go down. and then all of these condo, i was somehow realize that for some reason it's still very expensive air. and so go to the petrol station. so that might be a problem. those very high gasoline prices and i've just come from the u. s. i

cannot remember at any time in my life, paying these kind of prices at the pump. they are, of course, imperiling. the chat is not only of joe biden, but also have his party in the upcoming mid term elections and possibly in the presidential election in 2024. do you really expect that voters will see this trip to the middle east as having a significant effect? that wasn't my impression listening to us media? well, the 1st point is the gas prices have been starting to come down slightly, but consistently in the united states. the 2nd thing is that inflation is not only the novel and policy issue in washington and also for the biden administration, but also the number one foreign policy issue for washington and the, the narrative. the way that biden has, the administration has tried to frame it, is in terms of this war that russia's war on ukraine has created all sorts of a supply bottlenecks that are driving up prices in all sorts of areas. fuel gas,

it early energy, food, et cetera, commodities, and anything that he can be doing that will substantively or optic optically look like it's working against that will be helpful. but i don't know if it'll change the outcome of the midterms. this isn't it. let's come back to the summit in iran, put in our to one and iranian president to write easy. we're doing their best to present a united front, but weren't there very real divisions, especially on syria? absolutely. i mean, actually you have lot of very contradict of interests, but on the other hand, they have also a couple of common things. like for instance they, they, they see a chance to, to change the regional or order or even the global order in the world. and that's something which is unifying them. and you have also are, i mean, everybody has to have different interests. now, iran in russia were on one side in syria and turkey was on the other side. a turkey

is supporting ukraine with the delivery of drones, which would have been extremely successful and very badly. on the other hand, her aragon is one to wants to make himself indispensable when it comes to, to mediate between ukraine and, and russia. so a very, a very climate mover have to say. and so what, what, what is unifying them or at the moment is stronger than what is, what is a designing them, what is dividing them? and so, and, and so i think, i think right now it's a, it's a demonstration of everybody is doing his best to look as powerful as possible. and you said, dividing them or re can nonetheless, this a meeting in tehran definitely sent a very clear message to the world. could we, in some sense,

say that it's western sanctions themselves that are enabling a new form. of dio, politics are not only in terms of this russian, iranian a turkish in excess, but of course, also russia, china, which will have blow back for the west. well, of course, via somehow returning tonia that we thought was over forever. because now we have again, this block system, on the one hand, we have the rest, the rest and democratic ag states. and on the other hand, we have china and russia, we're forming an alliance and somehow the biggest dictatorships they are on earth. and now the interesting thing is that this conflict of systems is being framed is a conflict between democracies and dictatorships. and if these dictatorships are framed as offering security and stability, which in fact they don't offer because that's what russia shows when attacking the

ukraine, that it is a very unstable country. but anyway, i, what i really found interesting about this whole meeting is that it is really a change that now it's iran, offering jones to russia because you know, rush, i was always economically a very poor country. but it was a military superpower. and now iran, which is somehow not a very important country, it off as a deadly weapons to a military superpower. and that really shows how weak russia has become. that is now dependent on countries like iran. you not done, we don't know right now whether this deal will come through. but nonetheless, talking about it is already a deadly blow for russia and put in the travels to yvonne and smiles all the time. i mean, that's us really quick, just crazy. let's also take

a look at the state of the russian economy. the west has in fact heaped sanctions on bratia, yet his energy prices sore and supplies of ghast window many here in europe. fear that these measures are hurting the west more than putin from burgers. to porches, the list of products that can no longer be sold in russia is long. president putin is now complaining about an economic lids clique and by the west, admitting that the sanctions are affecting russia. as a result, the russian g. d. p is expected to fall by 10 percent and 2022. inflation is currently at 17 percent, and industrial production has fallen by 8 percent. but many of the sanctions are also affecting germany and other western countries. food and energy prices are skyrocketing. many consumers are already complaining about the high prices. some economic experts say that the world economy might be in danger. the russian

president has managed to find new buyers for many of his raw materials faster than expected, including in india and china. and expensive western products, such as luxury cars are easily imported through other countries like turkmenistan or kazakstan with its sanctions. well, the west harm itself more than russia in the end. and let me put that question right to reca, coupled with a question that arose as i was reading a very interesting article in the magazine published by spiegel magazine. this is out of rights for the historian nicholas molder, said they are that if you want to wage economic, where you must put your economy on a war footing, did the west fail to remember that lesson as it began applying sanctions? well perhaps, but you have to distinguish 2 things. those sanctions that is decided on not

to export any high technology to russia or not to to, to serve the airplanes is not hurting the best at all because in russia was very unimportant when it came to exports. at the russian and the german exports to russia were only 2.5 percent of all the exports germany has. so that was really a minor point. but of course, russia can hurt us by just not exporting oil or gas, and that's what they are doing. so, but that is something you could never ever have prevented because once the rest starts to support the ukraine with weapons, which i find that we should do that. then of course, it was obvious that the russia would retaliate rate by using it's all, and it's gas as

a weapon by itself. so there was no possibility to somehow prevent russian to use its energy as a weapon. but of course, that is something that europe didn't really provide for, but i think that's just because, you know, no one counted on having this wall to the february 24th. everyone's thought it impossible that russia would attack the ukraine. and now of course, it is upstarts to adapt to, to the situation, but in the end, you know, what we have to do is to save energy is up as so let's talk about saving energy in the face of a lot of speculation. susanna that russia would now completely cut off gas through the north stream one gas pipeline, to europe. in fact, it is now flowing again. is this just a roofs on putins part to keep europe nice and dependent on russian gas? or do you think that russia, in the end needs europe, at least as much as europe needs that russian gas?

certainly, i mean, we're still the biggest recipients of, of gas. so suddenly there is an independent interdependency. but on the other hand, it's also a kind of a to add to the, to the war. it adds a kind of psychological warfare as well because i mean, it's terrorizing everybody here like you don't know what it would he would, he opened the pipe or probably the get or wouldn't t. and when does he stop? and, and, and i mean that's, that's, that's a level of discussion on a politically, which is actually something everybody wants to avoid. and suddenly it shows that the dependency, we all know now that it was a big mistake to completely rely on russia. what also has to say that even in the, in the, in the harsh is most darkest moments during the cold war. i mean there's, and it has never happened that, that, that russia didn't deliver, did deliver when,

when you had a contract with it. so actually it's, it's a complete new situation, so whom do you want to blame? but the lesson learned is certainly you need a complete new mix which you set up. so if, if, if, if you have trouble with one with one contract partner, so you never fall into that situation again and testing. meanwhile, the commission is recommending 2 member states that they should begin to prepare for rationing gas. is that the big thing of that war? footing for the european economy that could help it out last, a long, cold winter with less russian guy. yeah, that's the appropriate response. a response. i mean, this is an acute crisis that very few people predicted. there is a chronic crisis that people are already starting to pursue for and build resilience and to build that kind of war footing economy. and that's china. so thinking about diversifying on a semiconductor production, for example, away from taiwan or some other areas. there is an attempt to create the kind of resilience you need to be able to survive when you're cut off for major major

economies. but we have to say, i mean, we should not be afraid of our own shadow. the, the greater west is 45 percent of the global economy, rushes under 2 percent. so the elephant can't be afraid of the mouse. in this case, the question is always a question. as it is in economics, short term or a longer term, many people are, we can say that this conflict is likely to last quite a week. while i want to come back to our title, we asked whether it's anything goes for putin and bide. and will these new friendships that putin is cultivating? will they take enough of the sting out of western stanke sanctions that he can keep on going indefinitely and know at the sanctions? the west and sanctions are very forceful because they hit at 2 points that the likely for the russian economy. one is at high technology and the other is the airplanes. and without the best and technology,

all the planes in russia must stay on the ground. and that is for a huge country like russia, deadly says anna tyson, in one word would you say that the west has what it takes to stay the course also through its alliances, even through a long cold winter. it will be a little bit cold in this winter, maybe next winter in particularly, but on the long run, i'm quite positive. that is the commitment to the biden administration has made them brussels displayed, and we have to stick to our commitment to you. great, thank you. very much to all of you for being with us. and thanks to all of you out there for tuning in. see you soon. ah, with

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