ah, it's water's connect people of many cultures seen it almost rock and to far abdul karim drift along with exploring modern lifestyles and mediterranean where it has history left its traces, meeting people hearing their dreams, a mediterranean journey intended to so starts august 14th on d, w. russia and ukraine are taking heavy casualties in the don bus, but has ukraine already lost the east my guess this week believes that is likely the case in bremar is a political scientist and founder of the eurasia group. it is very clear that the

cost that russia is going to pay economically, politically and strategically for a generation or more will be very severe and that, and we can't, we can't forget about that. and we also discussed the impact of a conflict that has had a broader effect on global stability all this and more on this week's conflicts on, ah, in burma. welcome to conflict on that the journey. now the battle for ukraine is slowly dangerously close to becoming a frozen conflict. ukraine is facing 10 times a number of artillery guns. it has, according to some ripple, to losing up to 200 soldiers a day. and russia is making small. but incremental gains could ukraine be on the verge of losing the don bass?

it's certainly losing most of the don boss. it's hard to imagine that they would be able to retake the territory that would bring them back to the pre february 24th lines of conflict. and i think that those are minimum table stakes for an effective negotiation. so i mean, what, what we're looking at is a situation where the russians are increasingly able to declare victory in the air more much more modest and scale down war aims from this so called 2nd phase of the special military operations, the loo. hans can then yeske, as well as the land bridge to crimea. but of course, russia's position globally is vastly worse. they are losing the war against europe, the war against us, the war against ada. let. let us stay with the situation and ukraine for

a moment. i do want to discuss europe. let's just talk about ukraine for a 2nd. russia clearly has the new medical advantage, and as you mentioned, it is declining these small winds in the eastern regions. what needs to happen to tip the balance in ukraine's favor? well, you know, russia's defense spending is 10 times that of ukraine's on an annual basis. now the extraordinary amount of international support has narrowed that gap this year. and there's no question that the morale of the ukranian troops fighting for their homeland fighting for their families fighting for their existence also provides advantages to the ukrainians that the russians cannot bring to the front. but it's still david versus goliath. and now that the russians are focusing almost all of their troops on a much more compact area it's,

it's honestly hard to imagine that the ukrainians are going to be able to stop them . it's certainly true that if the west were to provide heavier weapons faster in the coming weeks, that maybe they could prevent the russians from taking even more territory. lou hans is basically done. done yes. maybe they can stop. so why isn't the west providing heavier weapons? the way you quinn has been bleeding since at least april, why is the pace of delivery so slow? well, in the case, the united states has been responsible for the lion's share of the defense support so far. and in some cases, it's because there's a reluctance to provide the heaviest weapons for fear of escalating the war beyond ukraine's borders that definitely and, and by the way the europeans felt the same way. no, we're not sending tanks than maybe we'll send tanks. we're not sending helicopters

may barrels and helicopters. so, i mean, there has been a shift in the perspective of different nato countries over the last 4 months. of some of it honestly is that the americans don't suddenly it's not like they have a whole bunch of surplus weaponry that they've just been sitting on and doing nothing with. and in some cases, they are actually sending what they have available and, and there needs to be increased production. so i think of both of those things are going on right now. now the u. s. has recently amounts to for the $1000000000.00 in military assistance for ukraine. the u. k. is announced to foster a training program for ukrainian a troops. will this pick up the piece of heavy weapons deliveries to quin. yeah, but i, again, i, i don't think that this is not going to fundamentally change my view that the russians are likely to be able to take most, if not all of the dying bass and also likely maintain their control of the land

bridge to crimea, including the city of harrison, now ukrainian presidency. lensky has warned that it is facing that ukraine is facing increased attacks from russia, while the european union considers whether to admit ukraine into the e u family or not. so these heavy weapons that ukraine wants on coming to ukraine, and then that is the reality. as you mentioned, that russia is likely to take control of the don bass. what is ukraine supposed to do? how is it supposed to withstand this renewed russian onslaught? well, the extraordinary amount of support that the west has provided for ukraine. let's be clear. it's vastly greater than any one would have expected. if you had said that the russians are going to invade on february 24th, and i don't think any external analysts would have expected the billions and billions of dollars that have been provided. but i want to be clear on this is not

only about ukraine withstanding an attack from a country that has, can marshal 10 times its own military and defense forces. it's also about punishing the russians. and if the russians are going to continue to engage in war crimes, they're going to continue to invade an innocent country for no reason other than the fact they want to choose their own government. and then the russians are going to be permanently cut off from the western economy. and that those level of sanctions are greater than anything we've ever seen applied against the g 20 economy. now that doesn't save ukraine, that doesn't save the millions of ukrainian refugees, that doesn't make the don boss suddenly ukrainian, i accept that. but it is very clear that the cost that russia is going to pay economically, politically and strategically for a generation or more will be very severe and that, and we can't,

we can't forget about that. okay, and let's, let's look at the, a punishing the russian to talked about. punishing garage of this look at the short term. you were talking about the long term here. president mcgraw france had earlier said that russia should not be humiliated. and then he was in keith with other uli does, and he talks about ukraine winning sang ukraine must win. what do you think changed on the ground for that that made president mackerel say what he said. what did, what changed that are the massacres in boucher and it been could not force him to say that ukraine must win? look, i think this whole russia must not be you. milly aided. it's an exciting, a statement that makes great headlines and is differentiated from biden, and that's why we talk about it a lot. but, you know, france has been sending weapons to ukraine. and france has been a leader in 6 rounds of unprecedented european sanctions against russia.

of for the reality of france's position on russian ukraine is virtually identical to germany. it's virtually identical to that of the biden administration . now look, i am, i also would, i believe that putin shouldn't be ameliorated. ah, the only problem is that the person that's doing most of the humiliating of putin is putin. and it is a very easy way for putting a stop being humiliated that is to pull his troops out of ukraine and back to the borders that had been, at least at the very least an absolute minimum. um, where the russians were on february 23rd, which frankly, i mean even even that is unacceptable, given that they're still occupying ukrainian territory. but that would be the fastest way for putin to end his humiliation. i think them across understands that so is that what ukraine winning looks like? so when my crossers you quinn must win, is that what it means?

i don't think it will feel like a win to the ukrainian people. i think that when you have hundreds of thousands of ukrainians that are infiltration camps in russia, abducted and taken away from their country against their will. when you have tens of thousands of ukrainian civilians that have been killed in cold blood in inside ukraine. when you have pieces of their territory, including the formerly occupied in formerly occupied territory of the dawn boss and crimea, that russia still sits on. you've got millions of refugees in the homes of europeans outside of ukraine. i. this is a level of personal tragedy that every single ukrainian will feel. and frankly, i think it will be a, the, the most important um, historic part of their lives for generations. and so i don't know how you can live

through that. i don't know how you can live through additional sam, 39 when for you quinn is up, but you're saying i'm saying that i don't believe of my i come from partially in armenian family and i don't think anyone that's been through the armenian genocide . can say that they won during that period, and i, i think from the ukrainians that i've met both in and out of the government over the last few months, these are traumatized people personally, deeply traumatized people. i don't think that it's appropriate to speak of ukraine winning after experiencing that. now, the institute for the study of war in a june 11 assessment was quoting ukraine and intelligence. and it said that russia is planning to prolong the war. can at least october of this year if not longer, or i'm wondering what, what that does for the one thing that you said you quinn has going for it? it's moral. i think that again the ukrainians are fighting for survival.

and i think as we saw from people that lived through the nazi error that says, you know, that fighting for survival means fighting as long as it takes. so i think that you'll find that ukrainian morale on the ground the troops will continue to be shockingly high. but i just don't think they'll have the resources to continue to fight the way they have against the russians. over the 1st 3 months of this conflict when they pushed the russians out of the surrounding areas of ki, of, out of the surrounding areas of heart cave, which is the 2nd largest city in ukraine. i just think, i mean, this is a, a david versus goliath story and, and you can't, can, you can't expect realistically, expect the ukrainians can keep that up for years. let's be clear. what about europe? varnish? johnson is wanting of ukraine fatigue. can europe match futons resolve if this war stretches out?

i know they can't match putin's resolve in ukraine, but they can absolutely overmatched putin's resolve for everything else. i mean, let's keep in mind that the longer this war goes on, the, the more the russians are going to be advantaged in ukraine. but the more they will be disadvantaged in terms of their leverage over europe. i mean, once the europeans no longer need russian coal, they're not going back. russian oil, they're not going back. russian gas, they're not going back. the longer, the time of this war goes on a, the less reliance the europeans have on the russian economy. but then russia here, then you just wanna find an india for instance. yes, that's right. there are customers in china and india. the indians are buying more oil. they're not buying more russian weapons because you don't want to buy helicopters when they don't have spare parts. and of course, a big part of russia's economy was they were the 2nd largest military export in the

world that will go away because they will not, no longer have that capacity. the europeans are talking about boycotting your a shipping services, insurance and re insurance. that's 90 percent of all shipping of oil that comes out of russia irrespective of where it goes, whether europe or other places. and of course, even with the indians, the chinese buying more oil at high prices. the i m f expectation of russian g d p contraction this year is over 10 percent. and i have some sources inside our moscow that believe that it's closer to 15 percent. that's pretty severe. i think anyone would argue that's, that's a, that's a grease style. depression that the west is enforcing that europe is enforcing against russia, but none of that is of any consummation of ukrainians. we're looking at losing the don barza, potentially the south african not just that none of us any consolation to the

ukrainians who have had 6000000 refugees who have had war crimes committed against them. and the russians that have committed those war crimes that are back in russia are, have impunity. so again, i would argue with you that there is no that you're not going to provide satisfaction to a country of 44000000 people that has been unjustly invaded. not lithuanian president thomas nor cedar said in march of late to co term fulton will not stop in you crim if he will not be stopped. and now we have russia demanding lithuania. stop in forcing e u sanctions that to prohibit the transit of russian goods into the enclave of callum, in broad galena graduate. could this escalate? is something going to happen and fill him in grad all lithuania. all the russians have said it will escalate. but let's keep in mind that lithuania, like all the baltics, are nato states, and that they are invaded that would lead to a nato response. i don't think that the russians given the challenges they're

having on the ground in ukraine, are particularly eager for a 2nd front in that war. so i expect that russia's escalation will be largely symbolic. i think there been some seats, some signs of that. in the last 24 hours, i look at the lithuanians are plenty angry at russia. and like most of europe, they are fully on board with the very, with the unprecedented tough sanctions that are being level. but should do the baltic missions and all the eastern european countries be preparing for war. you know, it, it is a war time. and by the way, i should make the argument that if the europeans are about to a pride candidate member status to ukraine, then that will mean that the european union will be directly at war with russia. right? i mean, that's kind of what they're saying. so, i mean, i, i, i think that the europeans are preparing for war. it's

a cold war right now. but there are elements of hot war, espionage, cyberattacks, this information. it's a very dangerous time. this is existential fear within the eastern european countries, particularly and the, the baltic, notions generally on one side of me to gender on the same page when it comes to supporting ukraine. and on the other extreme, you have western nations western europe, initials, like france and germany. how do you view france and germany? are they essentially in the business of appeasing russia at the moment? i think that's an incredible misread anyone that would say that i'm not suggest the you're saying that i know you just asking the question. i mean yes, there are differences. nuance differences between poland wanting to provide more heavy weapons, for example, and france and germany a little bit more reluctant, but the overwhelming message that the europeans and the americans and the canadians have delivered in the last months has been support for ukraine. it's been direct

defense support. it's been humanitarian support and it's been 6 rounds. the sanctions and the europeans of course, are taken it on the chin. i mean, the hungarians aren't completely on board and serbia, which is not a member of the e. u is not on board, but overwhelmingly the europeans have been sticking together here and the idea, anyone that would argue that the french and the germans are trying to appease the russians. it either there, there are their russian propagandists and not admitting it to you, or they're being dishonest. young stoughton berg has have of the won't most likely end at the negotiating table and what happens there will be determined effectively by the situation on the battlefield. so you do believe that germany in france and doing everything they can to make sure that ukraine has a strong negotiating position of those talks, even when the happen. no, of course i don't believe that neither the americans, neither the polls. i mean, there's no no fi zone. i saw the polish government was willing to provide aircraft

for a no fly zone, as long as they didn't have to send it directly. so the polish government isn't doing everything they can. i don't see the polls sending troops to fight side by side with ukraine, even though the polish government has told me that they consider the ukrainians fighting for poland fighting so that the polls don't have to do so. no, no one would argue that they're doing everything they can, but they're certainly doing much more than anyone would have expected and they're working together, which i think is very important. not the italians presented us. he's far plan in me and point 3 of that 4 point plan, essentially the foot of the don bus, the state of the don bus, and a crimea up for discussion with russia. do you get the impression that western europe is happy to sacrifice don barson crimea? if it puts a stop to the wall? no, i get the sense that western europe believes that the ukrainian government are, are the principal negotiators. they have been the ones fighting,

they've been the ones dying. they've been the one suffering. and it was very clear when the french president, the italian prime minister, the german chancellor and the romanian president for fun, all showed up and key of last week. and they all made it very clear that any negotiation that will ever occur with putin will be led by the ukrainians. and that is, of course, the appropriate position. not yet said in an interview to d, w to a colleague or fine of the new mexico to conference, that russia wants to find ways to divide nato. what you're saying is russia has failed. that's right. russia has actually putin has succeeded in uniting and strengthening nato's it. nato and ways that american presidents had only dreamed of . i mean, trump failed biden failed. obama failed. they couldn't get the germans to spend 2 per cent on defense. they couldn't get the french and swedes to set the fins and swedes to say they wanted to join. they couldn't do permanent deployments forward deployments, and they couldn't get the europeans to recognize that their piece dividend did not

mean that they could ignore national security. putin has accomplished all of those things and more for nato. so absolutely. putin has putin has succeeded in strengthening nato. i don't think that was his intention, but he has succeeded. speaking of us presidents under a president, donald trump, he initially withheld $400000000.00 in, in the military 8 package to ukraine over to quit broke all to do with hunter vibe and joe biden, son. and this was in the middle of a conflict that was raging in ukraine's east. did an action like this enabled fulton and his ambitions in ukraine. now, not really a though i, i remember it is true, the trump was impeach the 2nd time for that action. and, and of course, he wasn't convicted because impeachment is broken as a political process in the united states, but speaks volumes that he was impeached for. that the fact is that potent decided to invade for a number of reasons when potent met with biden the year ago in switzerland. it was

largely biden's agenda biden, was talking mostly about cyber attacks because the cloning pipeline hit. he did not put ukraine high on the agenda putin. shirley noticed that he thought biden was comparatively weak, especially after the afghanistan withdraw thought the united states was focusing more on china as they were saw that merkel was out merkel was the one that was course was much more hard line in terms of ukraine, specifically. and much more focused on the don boss and on the men's courts accordingly saw that micron was going in his own direction, saw that she should ping, ah, was his best friend on the global stage. and of course, also saw that russia had much more energy and gas influence over here. i'm going to was come to thank you, talk about the united states over here. it was strong who initially pulled a refunding from your grin, but then released it. and then you had in made just this me 11 republicans in the senate, and i think it was 57 in the house who voted against the 40000000000 dollar package of funding for ukraine. if trump was hold withholding money, this seems to be

a mood to do that now as well, isn't the a mood? well, i mean, given that this is one of the most bipartisan packages that had gotten support in the united states, many americans agree on nothing. right? now, democrats and republicans, the amount of support, a overwhelming majority is in the house and senate for $40000000000.00 for ukraine, a country most of them hadn't heard of before february 24th is a staggering amount of support. i mean, you know, it is true that you can find a few people that weren't in favor of it. but actually the by the administration only wanted 33000000000. and republicans, the republicans demanded more alamba to support whole. i just wanted to court a pool by npr. phoebe, as to said that the president biden's ratings are down over his handling of ukraine . and the number one concern amongst most americans is inflation. prices are going up and most of them believe that republicans can do

a better job of renting in inflation than the democrats. my indication is, what does this mean for the mid tempo that are coming up? oh no, i'm going to get destroyed in the mid terms and the democrats will lose the house. but i, i have, i am incredulous that you found a poll that said that biden's numbers are going down because of ukraine. americans do not know hardly anything about ukraine. they don't vote on the basis of ukraine . they're going down because of inflation. so how much, how much will ukraine be a priority november onwards in the united states? oh, i'm in the united states is already losing interest in ukraine. that's pretty clear a, it's hard for me to imagine that you're going to get the same kind of support for ukraine next year as you got this year. but i promise you that you get the same kind of punishment to russia that you got this year. so once again, i mean, it's going to be harder for ukraine in 2023. but russia is going to take it in the teeth. and putin's not going to look like a winner here. he's going to look like he's been absolutely destroyed by the west. but that works for potent governor because he gets to consolidated positions in

ukraine and for him that counts as a win. and there is no guarantee he does not threaten any other european country. i don't, i have a look if i were advising putin and look, please don't wish that upon me a clearly i would tell him to try to announce his ukraine territory as a win. but is economy is being contracted his a he can't, his athletes, a can't compete under the russian flag on his oligarchy or having their assets frozen, half of his central bank assets have been unprecedentedly, frozen nato is expanding the finished. busy order is a, an unprecedented expansion. i mean, you know, if he said this was all about nato before he invaded ukraine, and as i said, and as you, you certainly understand, nato has gotten a lot stronger. i mean, no matter putin can paint this, however he wants, this is an unmitigated disaster,

forbidden in burma, that's all we have time for. we leave it there for the time being. thank you so much for being on confident, sir. ah ah ah, with

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jillions journey around the world. number 7 on d w. ah ah ah, this is detail you news live from berlin. ukraine denies responsibility for an explosion at a russian air base in crimea. ukraine says it didn't strike the bass to on the mainland ukrainian fighters pushed towards press on. our correspondent met them in the front line trenches also coming.