to portugal, a race leads to military interests, a race linked to political and military prisoners, but also linked to main financial changes and adventure full of hardships, dangers and death. 3 years that would change the world forever. like children's journey around the world. starting september 7th on d, w. now into its 2nd month, the war in ukraine has failed to give russia the quick victory of warranty. and there are signs of growing discontent among the political and security elite back in moscow. a small band of investigative journalists is managed to pierce the veil of secrecy around those officials. among them address alberta, founder and editor of the tour of website,

which tracks russia's intelligence services. he's my guest this week from london. how worried russia spies about the progress of the war? people inside are not really happy, because the way the war is going. and they blamed just one guy by the mere portion of that. so who is most likely to turn against putin and why? how long can he blame others for the setbacks to the invasion? he ordered. is anyone waiting in the wings to take over if he stumbles? and what are the chances of that can put in the long term survive this? do think a lot thinks out. all that and more, i'm conflict with andre. so that of welcome to conflicts on thank you for having me for a long time, you and some of your colleagues have maintained extraordinary contact with whistleblowers in the russian security services. you implied recently that failures

by russia's army causing cracks in russia's leadership? how serious in your view are those cracks? while that is correct, why? jimmy was, in spite of his war attack and his own people are and be see him track and his for the intelligence agency that he placed on the house arrest to f as b jr. all domestic agency box for the intelligence range in charge of the situation . ukraine, than it was. the town was a national guard, and the zip ahead of the national guard was forced to retire. and he was just 45 years old. so yeah, it doesn't look really good and it sounds really, really different from the p. this was our budget report and a half. and that caused a lot of confusion inside of the security services. and people inside are not really happy because the way the war is going. and they blamed just one guy,

was in there for that. doesn't he risk turning some of them into powerful enemies against him? after all, is a pretty ruthless system, isn't it? yes, it is. but the thing is bad about russian security agencies and the army. they do not have a tradition tool. conspire to be honest. the last time the russian military tried to have some sort of code that was probably in the 19th century where the father bore bolt off. this embrace the nation 25 and they didn't go well for them. the russian security services, all this are controlled. the army, but it was all these vis. brain show was a military content that isn't one of the big. ready department of the f as b, and they have their own people every provide in every military department, never a military unit. so for the military,

it's not actually an option. it's also not an option for the security services, because while the middle portion, just for his own security as to security agents just and they just that the protection person that if you were pushing though, who's loyalty, do you think you could now count on unconditionally? i think his personal security services, he has the service of the protection of the president. these people are close to him and also his, he has is the federal protection service. again this people talk it's, they're providing protection for him and for high level officials. and usually these people are very low to him. well, they'll be inside is in the system. people in top positions who are looking at the poor performance of the army, looking at this huge economic backlash from the west that's about to hit them and saying, we can't survive this. it's all gone too far. you talk to some of russia spies,

how worried are they about the progress of the war and, and the reaction to it in the west? something they don't seem to have factored in? well, yes, they are war but not because of the ration of the west or the one you train them most worth about their positions. they see that which has been a tie, convey p own people for quite some time. and to be honest, that started before the war, we've been living in this climate of selective professions for probably 7 years now . and that is why we have governors and ministers in jail. and also we have is d people in jail. so people inside, they are mostly of war at the bakery. yes. but of course, the understand now that trouble believes was not going well. and they're made mostly they're thinking about themselves. we do not only,

we don't only have tradition too, or well of really good conspiracists, but also it's a problem of the lack of political acquisition. while it's very different from what we had like 20 years ago, 20 years ago in russia, we still had some political pottis', political groups. and if you have say, several generals though unhappy if the president the police, they had some political force to go and to ask them for political support. we do not have this big now. the political opposition is either in, in jail or in a czar last week, one of your fellow journalist, the amount of such can, who's published a number of letters from an apparent whistle blow in the f s. b, he went so far as to say that with every week the war goes on, the risk of a coup against putin is growing. you wouldn't agree with that, would you?

oh, 1st of all wasn't what i said, can he's not my call if he's not journal, it is human rights activists. and he's a very good given rights activist. he has his own sources, but my contacts and some of the secret services that not i don't hear from them, but they're ready for some sort of action. i don't think they are there yet. when you say ready, ready, in what way? psychologic be ready already in terms of all organizational movements. what, what is that read it's, it's really difficult for them psychologically. and organizational lead psychological because now we have in the rest of security services, people who grew up and met the careers and the one president and probably the one director of the f b because the guy who is now is in charge, he has been around since 2007. with that means back you have a junior ration of,

of officers who have no experience before the people. i mean, the father leaders, their political struggles. they grew up thinking that the president would be forever. and that i would say narrow, it's based thinking and that horizon they, when you talk to them, they usually talk about the department, maybe about the unit, but never about the service and never about the country. they do not have b s. b, guys, yes. about the future and most of the concerns about themselves. so psychological, it's a really difficult for them. are gonna sessional, as i said, just to build and none the ground organization inside was would be really huge challenge because they have this big problem of mistrust inside of the security services. so you have middle level officers distrusting the general and general destruction. they, subordinates, how,

why are these people inside the security service about losing their privileges and their money? and the perks because putting the help to create a john talk chrissy in russia, hasn't he? institution's lives, corruption in the police and security service has been demick for years of net yes, or the straw box. and then 2060 in, i'll be, they've been living in a slightly different reality. put in stripped to f as b and other security services of the right to travel abroad. so they all ready law, some of a privileges. they also, they do not have a disability rights to have property abroad. so based on the some sort of not repression but some, some sort of pressure from the president quite some time. so they have to buy their loyalty. doesn't to with something. yeah. yes, absolutely. yeah. they have been joined good salaries and all that. but it means

that fan not feeling themselves independent, they are that instrument. that is, that was made very clear but what's and so you can see them and every criminal case against political opposition was a rush of the lease. but they're not acting independently. whatever happens with putin, there is no sign of any liberal faction waiting in the wings to take over. is there none whatsoever? not? it doesn't exist. and to be honest events, i hope that says rationale. gosh, now my b while rebel just because they that put on the sections all, it's not a really ops and here these people because they lost their contracts, waves of where some years ago. and they were given help by the government, by military contracts. now want, many of them became part of the russian military industrial complex, and that makes them even more dependent on the kremlin and twitch and looking at

the repression that's been going on now for some time. and obviously has been stepped up during the war. we have what, 15000 people so far arrested on the streets, beatings, widespread intimidation, long prison sentences. are you hearing any qualms at all from the intelligence services that this is going to father? soviet style repression is perhaps no longer sustainable in 2022. on here that are only going to rate people inside just security services. got convinced that that there was a lot of best young again because they had this big idea that old but things in russia happened before because of their lucel's. and there has been a big fear, but something like 970 g and mice, one day repeats itself in russia, and they have biz bis obsession has their own revolution. the problem that

lucian is, but in they opinion, evolution was started by a small bunch of amy grass, not by big political party. that is why they are convinced. but when you to suppress all kinds of political activity, just normal, i expect more shall trials, but not against a political position, because it's all reggie non existent in the country. but you can expect some big criminal investigation against the russian, the late because these days is mostly consult with their far as a loyal to all of the russian bureaucracy. and so you can expect some more governors, some more ministers, a sentence out. and that is why the secret service is concerned, because when they see that they're now on the attack. so for a moment about putins rhetoric, keys, spoken of traitors and scum in society and the need for self purification. is he

trying to divert blame from himself and on to those who haven't supported his war? while he tries to, to rely on bis feelings, shared by many as a country that russia is. this is for, for us. and that has been all this under some sort of attack from west and the biggest, how far the west, in this case provided by liberals in the country. so actually what is which is doing right now is encouraging people to leave the country. remember him, his famous line that the russians people will split ah, this traitors out of a mouth just like a flea, i think. but what's his expression? so actually he's encouraging people to leave and the b. c, bad already mobile, $70000.00 specialists left to come check. not to mention intelligence.

jordan, listen activists. this pushing out of people who don't support the war. how does that messaging go down with the public at large? the majority are still packing the war. unfortunately, yes. and they think that, ah, actually, it may be good for the country, some sort of cleansing of the country because of his liberal fe joy, a good way to fly and all of us. and now it's time door protect our country. so we have this deep feelings of a busy, just hold for us and putting knows how to blow it. what about when the public finds out the scale of the casualties, which hasn't yet been revealed to them? just as they found out when the soviets were in afghanistan, soldiers mothers have shown themselves in the past to be a pretty formidable voice in russian society. having 1st of all of its kind of activity as far as their good is ation. you mention that most of soldiers is

suppressed bizarre forages, so it's not actually safe. the mother store the cold is i'm going to zation and block will help. the other problem is that puts you in actually, if he understood something about the war in chechnya, that for instance, is better not to have soldiers drafted than big features sent to the wall. that is why you see all this people now taken prisoners and ukraine, and dam mostly from siberia, from distant regions, and some for russia like more to go there. and you said he didn't care about them. well, if you have some people killed and you have a relative in the small town in and more though they're soft costs. but that would be a problem only for the small community and not for see just like moscow or some pictures

book. but they were sensitive enough about the casualties that when come so most proud of the newspaper printed some figures briefly on march the 22nd and then raised them figures which suggested the army had lost nearly 10000 men with more than 16000 injured. they were very worried about that. what they cover up the casualties on the latest vigorous provide that last week was 1351 people killed. but again, of course it's very far from reality. yes. you absolutely right. we got, we didn't know that spot too much surprise. it didn't trigger any reaction in the russian society. so you have his mother's, you have a relative, quiet word, but that's all about it. and to be honest, the most astonishing part of that is these relatives and mothers, they are mostly worked about the songs, but they're not what they but what their songs doing in your brain. so base is

astonishing. lack of sympathy for the ukrainians, which to me is very shocking because every single family, all not single look at every 2nd family in russia, has some relatives in your brain. what went wrong with the progress of the war with the organisation of the war last week? ego, or get in for mcconnell and the f. s. b. counterintelligence said the war in ukraine was based on a catastrophic, incorrect assessment of ukraine's forces. the enemy was underestimated in every aspect. if that's true, why was the intelligence so poor? well, because it was not only bought but intelligence, it was also bought the consumer of his intelligence. everybody knows, including people inside of the s s b that pollution. all this has had strong opinions about ukraine and about the functionality or all this functionality of the

ukrainian space. and we know that you're right, you're not because you had to strong ripping years. so you're going to listen to any country intelligence. is that what you're saying? absolutely, and it's not, it was held above that. so the russian intelligence try to tell him that, look, you would be great at the vast grid at the flowers. it's about a very cynical approach and assumptions bad. the gradient stage and ukrainian people will just give up, the state will collapse immediately and we just need to while to impose our wheel. and that's it. what happened to the huge investments russia is supposed to have made in its forces in recent years. we now hear from western intelligence claims that the numbers huge numbers of russian missiles simply don't work. don't fly straight, don't explode on impact. what happened was the money or siphoned off when corrupt

deals by, by people connected to the military. well, i think that yes, the performance of the russian army is not very impressive, but i will blame not hold his army buckles of political leadership. these war was very different from all the previous, which was in many respects, including the way it's actually a lat. i'm in a chain of command even now is still unclear in all the previous, which is worse, you have this think it's called the join ripple forces. and usually you have a commander and you know, his name is that was public. i'm in the oldest and you to name of a general us ultimately in charge of that situation on the battlefield. what we've seen happen generally killed on the battlefield, haven't we? that's pretty unusual, isn't it? to have gen. i was actually there. absolutely, and i think the problem is that we do not have this gender come on right now, so we do not know who is in charge and that is why you have all this problem with

communications. we have current nation, and that is why as a general they think that we need to go, there's a frontline to see by themselves and they get killed. so it's not really goods and tom saw how the whole thing is organized. but political element, i think still plays a huge role in that. for instance, we do not understand military speaking, why? we have the national guard troops sent into ukraine. these people are trained to deal with us on the streets, not to be engaged in punk battles. and now, well now actually for a month, b, c columns of these people sent in the ukraine, get killed and darned, and nevertheless, the russian government still doing this. mister saw that of what, what should we read into the strange appearance of the defense minister such a show i grew after a long absence from public view was slurring in these words in

a way we haven't heard before. and the rumors reported by the ukrainians had been that he's had heart problems if he damaged goods. now in putins eyes, all i heard from my sources that question was quite unheard here. where fi again show ago. but what do we need to remember that to get sugar is extremely small and he is very shrewd. political operator is been around for 30 years, much longer than putting himself and he knows how to play with boots. and so he could have some problems if he has hard, but also he could play for a time the problem put in his face and now is that there is no real replacement for ca, chicago. we used to have a collection of popular generals who became popular because of their 2nd church, and wines of warned george and sir, what show gore did he got rid of them?

most of them. so if you need to find a good replacement for shribel right now, it would be if huge challenge and may be a struggle. just wanted to make sure that it's and understands that reports in the last few days who said russia is going to concentrate its military efforts on the done bass region. one should say, hm, so far, no sign is other operations are ending. but is this moscow trying to recalibrate its war aims to something it can achieve after having failed to achieve its initial aims? andrei, cartoon of who heads the russian international affairs council, says the countries leadership can't lose no matter what they will need to end. this whole story with some kind of victory. what if they can't while yes, it looks like they're trying to provide some explanations to the public. and the day i saw that last big wherefores arrest the middle tray one palm blake,

and talking to some program to me. yeah. trying to explain what's been wrong. all might be trying to say that everything is still according to plan. and now they say yes, it was all about done, boss, note about key f r, and we are not going to start will be seated. it's all about and sort of it's cjis and then about some cleansing. so of a change in rhetoric, obviously both suggested comic and this organization doesn't this confusion while not to panic, but confusion that for claire. but to be honest, i also, i do not quite understand how, which i can get out of this without claiming some sort of victory. he needs that he needs to provide some victory to the russians and to the world because it's all about just stinging and. 2 but to be honest, i don't quite see what it might be, because even if say he has some sort of agreement that the landscape,

the sanctions, i still that the column is ruined. and for what i don't know about a korean style partition, is that a possibility that he might accept that ah yes, but again, it will not be a we'll win for us for russia because he'll raise the stakes. he said, but we need to cleanse ukraine of the nazis and all that we need. then you deal with nate, that is not guessing that so again, i don't quite understand what his and gay doesn't biden's words in warsaw the weekend, supposedly, of a calf to the fact that putin can't remain in power. how do you think that will have been understood by the various factions inside the system? back in russia? those who may be thinking that also putins time should be coming to an end. while that is once struck,

can difference from what we see now from what we sell and falls under food g. and when we saw on down the station near the back, then as a russian broker say, the russian army, as a russian security is the all on the same page, they all support a future. they believe that that was the right thing, that everybody got excited. and unfortunately a lot of population also believed. but that was the right thing to do. now is a big shift. so people might still believe that something should be done with the ukraine, but they think that the way it was done was not very good one and they blame one guy, was me and, and i think it's quite significant, very briefly because we're running out of time can put in in the long term. survive this, do think a lot of things out i'm sorry, so that's good to have you on the program. thanks very much. thank you.

lou with

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