the long mediterranean, ah, it's waters connect people of many cultures seen it almost hard and so far a dual korean drift along with exploring modern lifestyles and mediterranean where it has history left its traces, leading people hearing their dreams to me this week on d. w. now into it's 2nd months, the war in ukraine has failed to give russia the quick victory of warranty. and there are signs of growing discontent among the political and security elite. back in moscow, a small band of investigative journalists is managed to pierce the veil of secrecy around those officials. among them address alberta,

founder and editor of the tour website, which tracks russia's intelligence services. he's my guest this week from london. how worried russia spies about the progress of the war? people inside are not really happy. there was a way as a war is going. and they blamed just one guy by the mere food for that. so who is most likely to turn against putin and why? how long can he blame others for the setbacks for the invasion? he ordered. is anyone waiting in the wings to take over if he stumbles? and what are the chances of that can put in the long term survive this? do think a lot. thanks out. all that and more on conflict on the i saw that of welcome to conflicts on thank you for having me for a long time, you and some of your colleagues have maintained extraordinary contact with

whistleblowers in the russian security services. you implied recently that failures by russia's army causing cracks in russia's leadership? how serious in your view are those cracks while others correct? was the start of his war by and talk in his own people and be see him a try catch his for the intelligence agency that he placed on the house arrest to f as b jr. all domestic agency about $400000.00 range in charge of the situation and ukraine than it was that on board, the national guard and the deputy head of the national guard was forced to retire. and he was just 45 years old. so yeah, it doesn't look really good and it sounds really, really different from the p. this was our budget report and a half. and that caused a lot of confusion inside of the security services. and people inside are not

really happy because the way the war is going and they blamed just one guy, was pushing for that. doesn't he risk turning some of them into powerful enemies against him? after all, is a pretty ruthless system, isn't it? yes it is. but the thing is bad about russian security agencies and the army. they do not have a tradition tool. conspire to be honest. the last time the russian military tried to have some sort of cooper. it was probably in the 19th century where the father bore bolt off. this embrace the nation, been to 5, and they didn't go well for them. the russian security services, all this are controlled. the army, but it was all these vis. brain show was a military content that isn't one of the big. ready department of the f as b, and they have their own people m provide in every military department, never

a military unit. so for the military, it's not actually an option. it's also not an option for the security services, because what the matter poochie and just for his own security as to security agents just. and they just that the protection person that if you were pushing though, who's loyalty, do you think you could now count on unconditionally. ready i think his personal security services, he has the service of the protection of the president. these people are close to him and also his he has is the federal protection service. again, this people talk it's, it provides protection for him and for high level officials and usually these people are very low to him. won't be inside is in the system. people in top positions who are looking at the poor performance of the army, looking at this huge economic backlash from the west that's about to hit them and

saying, we can't survive this. it's all gone too far. you talk to some of russia spies, how worried are they about the progress of the war and, and the reaction to it in the west. something they don't seem to have attracted in? well, yes, they are war but not because of the ration of the west or the one you train them most worth about their positions. they see that which has been a tie, convey p own people for quite some time. and to be honest, that started before the war, we've been living in this climate of selective professions for probably 7 years now . and that is why we have governors and ministers in jail. and also we have is be people in jail. so people inside, they are mostly of war at the bakery. yes. but of coffee, i understand now that trouble believes was not going well. and they're made

mostly they're thinking about themselves. we do not only, we don't only have a tradition to or well of really good because peter says, but also it's a problem of a lot of political opposition. while it's very different from what we had like 20 years ago, 20 years ago in russia. we still had some political conscious political groups. and if you have say, several generals though unhappy if the president, the police, they had some political force to go and to ask them for political support. we do not have this big now. the political opposition is either in, in jail or in a czar last week, one of your fellow journalist, the amount of such kin who's published a number of letters from an apparent whistle blow in the f s. b. he went so far as to say that with every week the war goes on, the risk of a coup against putin is growing. you wouldn't agree with that, would you?

oh, 1st of all, wasn't what i said, can he's not my call. if he's not, the journalist is human rights activists and he's a very good humor. i talk to this, you have his own sources, but my contacts and thought of the secret to services that not i don't hear from them, but they're ready for some sort of action. i don't think they are there yet. when you say ready? it ready, in what way psychologic be ready already in terms of all organizational movements. what, what does that read it's? it's really difficult for them psychologically. and organizational lead psychological because now we have in the rest of security services, people who grew up and made their careers and the one president and probably on the one director of the f b. because the guy who is now is in charge, he has been around since 2007 with that means that you have a junior ration of,

of officers who have no experience before the people. i mean, the father leaders, their political struggles. they grew up thinking that the president would be forever, and that i would say, narrative based thinking and that horizon they, when you talk to them, they usually talk about the department, maybe about the unit, but never about the service and never about the country. they do not have b, b, guys, yes. about the future and most of the concerns about themselves. so psychologically, it's a really difficult for bon organizationally as i sat just to build and none the ground organization inside was would be really huge challenge because they have this big problem of mistrust inside of the security services. so you have middle level officers distrusting their generals and general distrust, and they,

subordinates how one of these people inside the security service about losing their privileges and their money. and the perks because put in this help to create a john talk chrissy in russia. 70 in institutionalized corruption in the police and security service has been demick for years, has net yes, other strong box and then falls in the 60 be been living in a slightly different reality. puts in strict to s s b and other security services of the right to travel abroad. so they already law some of a privileges. they also, they do not have a disability rights to have property abroad. so they the under some sort of not depression but some, some sort of pressure from the president quite some time. so they know guy has to buy their loyalty doesn't to with something. yeah. yes,

absolutely. yeah. they have been joined good salaries and all that. but it means that van not feeling themselves independent there the instrument, but as but was made very clear about them. so you can see them in every criminal case against the political opposition of the russian, the lease. but van, not actin independently. whatever happens with putin, there is no sign of any liberal faction waiting in the wings to take over. is there none whatsoever? it doesn't exist. and to be honest, if it's a whole bad, say, is a rationale golf now might be while we're bow just because dave puts on those attractions all, it's not a really option here. base people because their last a contract with the where some years ago. and they've been given helped by the government, by military contracts. now, many of them became part of the russian military industrial complex. and that makes me even more dependent on the kremlin. and. ready looking at the repression that's

been going on now for some time and obviously has been stepped up during the war. we have what? 15000 people so far arrested on the streets, beatings, widespread intimidation, long prison sentences. are you hearing any qualms at all from the intelligence services that this is going to fall, that soviet style repression is perhaps no longer sustainable in 2022. not to hear that i'm going to rate people inside just security services. got convinced that that there was a lot of best young again because they had this big idea that old things in russia happened before because of their lucel's. and there has been a big fear. but something like 970 and mice one day repeats itself in russia, and they have biz bis obsession has their own revolution. the problem that

lucian is, but in they opinion, evolution was started by a small bunch of amy grass, not by big political party. that is why they are convinced. but when you to suppress all kinds of political activity, just no matter how big it is, because we're not behind the crack down the new crack down on the like saying the value of the opposition politician, for instance, in the extra 9 years that he's been given in jail, other likely to be more show trials like his on the way. i expect more shot trials, but not against the political opposition because it's all, reggie non exist them in the country. but you can expect some big criminal investigations against the russian, the late because these days is mostly consult with where there's a lot of direction bureaucracy. and so you can expect some more governance, more ministers,

a sentence out. and that is why the secret service is concerned. because when they see that they're now on the attack, so for a moment about putins rhetoric, keys, spoken of traitors and scum in society and the need for self purification, is he trying to divert blame from himself and on to those who haven't supported his war? while he tries to, to rely on bis feelings, shared by many as a country that russia is. this is for, for us. and that has been all this under some sort of touch from the west. and the biggest, how far the west, in this case provided by liberals in the country. so actually what is which is doing right now is encouraging people to leave the country. remember him, his famous line that the russians people will split. ah, this traitors out of a mouth just like a flea, i think. but what's his expression?

so actually he's encouraging people to leave and the b. c. bad already. mobile, $70000.00 specialists left to come check. not to mention intelligence. jordan, listen activists. this pushing out of people who don't support the war. how does that messaging go down with the public at large? the majority are still packing the war. unfortunately. yes. and they think that ah, actually it may be good for the country. some sort of cleansing of the country because of his liberal fe joy, a good way to fly and all of us. and now it's time door protect our country. so we have this deep feelings of a busy, just hold for us and putting knows how to blow it. what about when the public finds out the scale of the casualties, which hasn't yet been revealed to them?

just as they found out when the soviets were in afghanistan, soldiers mothers have shown themselves in the past to be a pretty formidable voice in russian society. having 1st of all of its kind of activity as far as their good is ation. you mention that most of soldiers is suppressed bizarre forages, so it's not actually safe. the mother store the cold is i'm going to zation and block will help. the other problem is that puts you in actually, if he understood something about the war in chechnya, that for instance, is better not to have soldiers drafted and big switches sent to the wall. that is why you see all this people now taken prisoners and ukraine and damn mostly from siberia, from distant regions, and some for russia like more to go there. and you said he didn't care about them.

well, if you have some people killed and you have a relative in the small town in and lower their soft costs. but that would be a problem only for the small community and not for just like moscow or some pictures book. but they were sensitive enough about the casualties that when come so most proud of the newspaper printed some figures briefly on march the 22nd and then raised them figures which suggested the army had lost nearly 10000 men with more than 16000 injured. they were very worried about that. what they cover up the casualties on the latest vigorous provide that last week was 1351 people killed. but again, of course it's very far from reality. yes. you absolutely right. we got, we didn't know that spot too much surprise. it didn't trigger a new reaction in the russian society. so you have his mother's, you have

a relative, quiet word, but that's all about it. and to be honest, the most astonishing part of that is these relatives and mothers, they are mostly worked about the songs, but they're not what they but what their songs doing in your brain. so base is astonishing. lack of sympathy for the ukrainians, which to me is very shocking because every single family, all not single look at every 2nd family in russia, has some relatives in your brain. what went wrong with the progress of the war with the organization of the war last week? ego get in form, a colonel and the f. s. b. counterintelligence said the war in ukraine was based on a catastrophic, the incorrect assessment of ukraine's forces. the enemy was underestimated in every aspect. if that's true, why was the intelligence so poor? well, because it was not only bought but intelligence,

it was also bought the consumer of his intelligence. everybody knows, including people inside of the f as b that pollution, all this has had strong opinions about ukraine and about the functionality or all this functionality of the ukrainian space. and we know that you're right, you're not because you had to strong ripping years. so you're going to listen to any country intelligence, is that what you're saying? absolutely, and it's not about health above that. so the russian intelligence try to tell him that, look, you would be great at the vast grid at the flowers. it's about a very cynical approach and assumptions bad. the gradient stage and ukrainian people will just give up, the state will collapse immediately and we just need to all to impose our wheel. and that's what happened to the huge investments. russia is supposed to have made

in its forces in recent years. we now hear from western intelligence claims that the numbers huge numbers of russian missiles simply don't work. don't fly straight, don't explode on impact. what happened was the money or siphoned off when corrupt deals by, by people connected to the military. well, i think that yes, the performance of the russian army is not very impressive, but i will blame not hold his army, but also political leadership. these war was very different from all the previous, which was in many respects, including the way it's actually lat. i'm in the chain of command. even now is still unclear in all the previous, which is worse. you have this think it's called the joint rebel forces. and usually you have a commander and you know, his name is that was public, i'm in the oldest and you the name of a general us ultimately in charge of that situation on the battlefield. we've seen

the generals killed on the battlefield, haven't we? that's pretty unusual. isn't it to have janet was actually there? absolutely, and i think the problem is that we do not have this gender come on right now. so we do not know who is in charge, and that is why you have all this problem with communications. we have current nation, and that is why as a general they think that we need to go, there's a frontline to see by themselves and they get killed. so it's not really good. and tom saw how the whole thing is organized, but political element, i think still plays a huge role in that. for instance, we do not understand militarily speaking, why we have the national guard troops sent into ukraine. these people are trained to deal with us on the streets, not to be engaged and in tank battles. and now, well, now actually for a month, b, c columns of these people sent in the ukraine,

get killed and darned. and nevertheless, russian government still doing this misses. so that of what, what should we read into the strange appearance of the defense minister such a show i grew after a long absence from public view was slurring in these words in a way we haven't heard before. and the rumors reported by the ukrainians have been that he's had heart problems if he damaged goods. now including ours, all i heard from my sources, but the question was quite unhappy. there were 5 gates showing goal bought. what do we need to remember back to get show go is extremely small. and his very shrew, it political operator, has been around for 30 years, much longer than putting himself. and he knows how to play with him. so he could have some problems if he has cars, but also he could play for a time the problem put in his face and now is that there is no real replacement

for their game show goal. we used to have the collection of popular generals who became popular because of the 2nd church and one's war and george and sir what shaw gore d and he got rid of them. most of them. so if you need to find a good replacement for shribel right now, it would be if huge challenge and may be. so i would just wanted to make sure that we can understand that reports in the last few days have said russia is going to concentrate its military efforts on the done bass region. one should say, it has so far, no sign is other operations ending, but it is moscow trying to recalibrate its war aims to something that can achieve after having failed to achieve its initial aims. andrei, cartoon of who heads the russian international council, says the countries leadership comp lose no matter what they will need to end this whole story with some kind of victory. what if i can't?

while yes, it looks like they're trying to provide some explanation to the public on the day i saw that last big wherefores arrest the middle tray one, palm blake, and talking to sam program to me. yeah. trying to explain what's been wrong. all might be trying to say that everything is still according to plan. and now of a say, yes, it was all about done boss. note about t f r and we are not gonna storm will be seated. it's all about and sort of see just and then about some cleansing, so of a change in rhetoric, obviously it both suggested comic and this organization doesn't this confusion while not to panic, but confusion that for claire. but to be honest, i also, i do not quite understand how, which i can get out of this without claim in some sort of victory. he needs that he

needs to provide some victory to the russian and to the world because it's all about just stinging and. 2 but to be honest, i don't quite see what it might be, because even if say he has some sort of agreement that the landscape, the sanctions, i still that the column is ruined. and for what i don't know about a korean style partition, is that a possibility that he might accept that ah, yes, but again, it would not be a we'll win for, for russia, because he raised the space he said, but we need to cleanse ukraine of the nazis and all that we need, then you deal with nate, that is not guessing that so again, i don't quite understand what his and gay president biden's words in warsaw the weekend, supposedly of a cough to the fact that putin can't remain in power. how do you think that will

have been understood by the various factions inside the system? back in russia? those who may be thinking that also putins time should be coming to an end. while that is one's strong can difference from what we see now from what we sell and falls into full g. and when we saw on the stand the station up there, i mean, back then as a russian broker say, there were some army as a russian security is the all on the same page. they all supported. they believe that there was the right thing that everybody got excited, and unfortunately a lot of population also believed. but it was the right thing to do now is a big shift. so people might still believe that something should be done with the ukraine, but they think that the way it was done was not very good one and they blame one

guy, was me and, and i think it's quite significant, very briefly because we're running out of time can put in in the long term, survive this to think. i don't think so. i'm sorry, so that's good to have you on the program. thanks very much. thank you. lou with

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