howard between spain and portugal, a race linked to military interests, the race links to political and military prestige, but also linked to main financial interests and adventure full of hardships, dangers and death. 3 years that would change the world for ever. like children's journey around the world. starting september 7th on d. w. it's with now into it's 2nd month. the war in ukraine has failed to give russia the quick victory is wanting. and there are signs of growing discontent among the political and security elite back in moscow. a small band of investigative journalists does managed to pierce the veil of secrecy around those officials. among them, address alberta,

founder and editor of the eigen tour of website which tracks russia's intelligence services. he's my guest this week from london. how worried russia spies about the progress of the war? people inside are not real happy. lives away as a war is going. and they blamed just one guy by the mere portion of that. so who is most likely to turn against who tune and why? how long can he play mothers for the setbacks to the invasion? he ordered. is anyone waiting in the wings to take over if he stumbles? and what are the chances of that camp putin in the long term survive this? do think a lot thing. so all that and more on conflict on the i saw that of welcome to conflicts on thank you for having me for a long time, you and some of your colleagues have maintained extraordinary contact with

whistleblowers in the russian security services. you implied recently that failures by russia's army causing cracks in russia leadership, how serious and you'll view all those cracks while that is correct. legendary who's in start of his war by and talk in his own people. and we see him tracking his for the intelligence agency that he placed on the house arrest to f as b junior. all domestic agency about $400000.00 range in charge of the situation and ukraine than it was the town or the national guard. and the zip it had of the national guard was forced to retire. and he was just 45 years old. so yeah, it doesn't look really good and it sounds really, really different from the p. this was our budget report and a half. and that caused a lot of confusion inside of the security services. and people inside are not

really happy because the way the war is going and they blame just one guy was there for that. doesn't he risk turning some of them into powerful enemies against him? after all, it's a pretty ruthless system, isn't it? yes it is. but the thing is bad about russian security agencies and the army. they do not have a tradition tool conspire to be honest. the last time the russian military tried to have some sort of code that was probably in the 19th century where 5, if father bore bolt off this embrace the nation 25 and the didn't go well for them . the russian security services, all this controls the army of us. all this is brain. i was the military content that isn't one of the biggest department of the f as b, and they have their own people m provide in every military department and never

military units. so for the military, it's not actually an option, it's also not an option for the security services, because what the nor poochie and just for his own security as to security agents just. and they just that the protection person that if you were pushing though, who's loyalty, do you think you could now count on? and conditionally i think his personal security services, he has the service of the protection of the president. miss. people are close to him and also his, he has is the federal protection service. again this people are both tockets, it provides protection for him and for high level officials. and usually these people are very low to him. when they be inside is in the system. people in top positions who are looking at the poor performance of the army, looking at this huge economic backlash from the west that's about to hit them and

saying, we can't survive this. it's all gone too far. you talk to some of russia spies, how worried are they about the progress of the war and, and the reaction to it in the west. something they don't seem to have attracted in? well, yes, they are war but not because of the racks of the west or the one you train them most worth about their positions. they see that which has been a tie can based on people for quite some time. and to be honest, that started before the war, we've been living in this climate off fall selector progression for probably 7 years now. and that is why we have governors and ministers in jail. and also we have is be people in jail. so people inside, they are mostly of board to bought, bakery yes, but of coffee, i understand now that trouble believes was not going well. and they're made

mostly they're thinking about themselves. we do not only, we don't only have a tradition to or well of really good because peter says, but also it's a problem of a lack of political opposition. while it's very different from what we had like 20 years ago, 20 years ago in russia. we still had some political pottis', political groups, and if you have say, several generals though unhappy if the president, the police, they had some political force, the goal and to ask them for political support. we do not have this faith now. the political opposition is either in, in jail or in a desire. last week, one of your fellow journalists for the amount of such kin who's published a number of letters from an apparent whistle blow in the f. s. b. he went so far as to say that with every week the war goes on, the risk of a coup against putin is growing. you wouldn't agree with that, would you?

oh, 1st of all was 2nd. he's not my call. if he's not journalists, his human rights activists, and he's a very good human rights activist. he has his own sources, but my contacts and some of the secret to services that not i don't hear from them, but they're ready for some sort of action. i don't think they are there yet. when you say ready, ready, in what way? psychologic be ready already in terms of all organizational movements. what. what is that read it's? it's really difficult for them psychologically. and organizational lead psychological because now we have in the rest of security services, people who grew up and met their careers and the one president and probably the one director of the f b because the guy who is now is in charge, he has been around since 2007. with that means back you have a junior ration of,

of officers who have no experience before the people. i mean, the father leaders, their political struggles. they grew up thinking that the president would be forever. and that i would say narrow, it's based thinking and that horizon may when you talk to them, they usually talk about the department, maybe about the unit, but never about the service and never about the country. they do not have b s. b, guys, yes. about the future and most of the concerns about themselves. so psychological, it's a really difficult for them. are gonna sessional, as i said, just to build and none the ground organization inside was would be really a huge challenge because we have this big problem of mistrust inside of the security services. so you have middle level officers distrusting the general and

general destruction. they, subordinates, how, why are these people inside the security service about losing their privileges and their money? and the perks, because putin has helped to create a john talk chrissy in russia, hasn't he? institution's lives, corruption in the police and security service has been demick for years of net. yes, i the straw box and then 2060 and i'll be been living in a slightly different reality. put in strict to f. s b and other security services of the right to travel abroad. so they all ready law, some of a privileges. they also, they do not have a disability rights to have property abroad. so based on the some sort of not depression, but some, some sort of pressure from the president quite some time. so they know the guy has to buy their loyalty, doesn't t with something. yes. yes,

absolutely. yeah. they have been joined salaries and all that, but it means that fan not feeling themselves independent. they are the instrument. that is, that was made very clear by puts and so you can see them in every criminal case against political opposition, those of russia lease. but they're not actin independently. whatever happens with putin, there is no sign of any liberal faction waiting in the wings to take over. is there none whatsoever? not? it doesn't exist. and to be honest events, i hope that says rationale. gosh, now my b while rebel just because they that put on the sanctions all, it's not a really ops and here these people because they lost their contracts waves of where some years ago. and they were given help by the government, by military contracts. now want, many of them became part of the russian military industrial complex. and that makes them even more dependent on the kremlin. and to chem,

looking at the repression that it's been going on now for some time and obviously has been stepped up during the war. we have what, 15000 people so far arrested on the streets, beatings, wide spread, intimidation, long prison sentences. are you hearing any qualms at all from the intelligence services that this is going to father? soviet style repression is perhaps no longer sustainable in 2022. not to hear that on the going to great people inside just security services. got convinced that that there was a lot of best young again because they had this big idea that all the things in russia happened before because of their lucel's. and there has been a big fear, but something like 970 and mice one day repeats itself in russia, and they had biz bis obsession as their own revolution. the problem that sort of

a lucian is, but in they opinion, evolution was started by a small bunch of amy grass, not by big political party. that is why they are convinced. but when you to suppress all kinds of political activity, just no matter how big it is, because we're not behind the crack down the new crack down on the like saying the value of the opposition, politician, for instance, and the extra 9 years that he's been given in jail, other likely to be more show trials like his on the way. i expect more short trials, but not against a political opposition because it's all, reggie non exist them in the country. but you can expect some big criminal investigations against the russian, the late because these days is mostly consult with their far as a loyal to all of the russian bureaucracy. and so you can expect some more governors, some more ministers,

a sentence out. and that is why the secret service is concerned, because when they see that they're now on the attack, and so for a moment about putins rhetoric, keys, spoken of traitors and scum in society and the need for self purification. is he trying to divert blame from himself and on to those who haven't supported his war? while he tries to, to rely on bis feelings, shared by many as a country that russia is. this is for, for us. and that has been all this under some sort of from the west and the biggest, how far the west, in this case provided by liberals in the country. so actually what is which is doing right now is encouraging people to leave the country. remember him, his famous line that the russians people will split ah, this traitors out of a mouth just like a flea, i think,

but was his expression. so actually he's encouraging people to leave and the b. c. bad, already mobile, 70000. the specialist left to come check not to mention intelligence. jordan, listen activists. this pushing out of people who don't support the war. how does that messaging go down with the public at large? the majority are still packing the war. unfortunately. yes. and they think that, ah, actually, it may be good for the country, some sort of cleansing of the country because of his liberal fe joy at a bow goods, well fly, and all of us. and now it's time door, protect our country. so we have this deep feeling of a busy, just hold trust them putting knows how to play with it. what about when the public finds out the scale of the casualties which haven't yet been revealed to them?

just as they found out when the soviets were in afghanistan, soldiers mothers have shown themselves in the past to be a pretty formidable voice in russian society having by the 1st of all of its kind of activities so far are good, is ation. you mention that most of soldiers is suppressed, but forages. so it's not actually safe or the mother's door. the cold is going is ation and block for how the other problem is that pushing actually he understood something about the war in chechnya, that for instance, is about to not to have soldiers, drafted and big switches sent to the wall. that is why you see all this people now taken prisoners and ukraine and them mostly from siberia, from distant regions. and some for russia like more to go there. and you say,

care about the while. if you have some people killed and you have a relative in the small town in and lower their soft costs. but that would be a problem only for the small community, not for just like moscow or some pictures book. but they were sensitive enough about the casualties that when come so most proud of the newspaper printed some figures briefly on march the 22nd and then raised them figures which suggested the army had lost nearly 10000 men with more than 16000 injured. they were very worried about that. what they cover up the casualties on the latest vigorous provide that last week was one falls and 351 people killed. but again, of course it's very far from reality. yes. you absolutely right. we got, we didn't know that spot too much surprise. it didn't trigger any reaction in the

russian society. so you have his mother's, you have a relative, quiet word, but that's all about it. and to be honest, the most astonishing part of that is these relatives and mothers, they are mostly worked about the songs, but they're not what they but what their songs doing in your brain. so base is astonished and lack of sympathy for the ukrainians, which to me is very shocking because every single family, all not single look at every 2nd family in russia, has some relatives in your brain. what went wrong with the progress of the war with the organisation of the war last week? ego get in for mcconnell and the f. s. b. counterintelligence said the war in ukraine was based on a catastrophic, incorrect assessment of ukraine's forces. the enemy was underestimated in every aspect. if that's true, why was the intelligence so poor? well, because it was not only bought but intelligence, it was all said,

bought the consumer of his intelligence. everybody knows, including people inside of the f as b that pollution, all this has had strong opinions about your grade and about the functionality or just the functionality of the ukrainian space. and we know that you're right, you're not because he has his strong opinions. so he's going to listen to any country intelligence, is that what you're saying? absolutely, and it's not it bob's health above that. so the russian intelligence try to tell him that, look, you would be great at vast, far greater the flowers. it's about very cynical, approach and assumptions bad. the gradient stage and ukrainian people will just give up, the state would collapse immediately and we just need to while to impose our wheel . and that's it. what happened to the huge investments russia is supposed to have made in its forces in recent years. we now hear from western intelligence that

claims that the numbers huge numbers of russian missiles simply don't work. don't fly straight, don't explode on impact. what happened was the money or siphoned off when corrupt deals by, by people connected to the military. well, i think that yes, the performance of the russian army is not very impressive, but i would blame not hold his army buckles of political leadership. these war was very different from all the previous putting was in many respects, including the way it's actually a lat, i mean is a chain of command even now is still unclear in all the previous, which is worse. you have this think it's called the joined rebel forces and usually you have a commander and you know, his name is that was public. i'm in the oldest and you the name of a general us ultimately in charge of that situation on the battlefield. what we've

seen happen generally killed on the battlefield, haven't we? that's pretty unusual, isn't it? to have gen i was actually there. absolutely, and i think the problem is that we do not have this janice, come on right now. so we do not know who's in charge, and that is why you have all this problem with communications. we have current nation, and that is why as a general, they think that we need to go, there's a frontline to see by themselves and they get killed. so it's not really good and tom self, how the whole thing is organized. but political element, i think still plays a huge role in that. for instance, we do not understand militarily speaking, why we have the national guard troops sent into ukraine. these people are trained to deal with us on the streets, not to be engaged and in punk battles. and now, well, now actually for a month, b, c columns of these people sent in the ukraine,

get killed and darned. and nevertheless, the russian government still doing this, mister saw that of what, what should we read into the strange appearance of the defense minister? shall i go after a long absence from public view was slurring in these words in a way we haven't heard before. and the rumors reported by the ukrainians have been that he's had heart problems if he damage goods. now in putins eyes, all i heard from my store. so bad question was quite unhappy. there were 5 guests showing goal, but what do we need to remember back to get sugar is extremely small. and his very shrewd political operator has been around for 30 years, much longer than putting himself and he knows how to play with him. so he could have some problems that he has caused, but also you get to play for a time. the problem putting its face in now is that there is no real replacement

for their game show goal. we used to have the collection of popular generals who became popular because of the 2nd church and ones of war and george and sir, what show gore di if he got rid of them, most of them. so if you need to find a good replacement for shribel right now, it would be if huge challenge and may be. so i would just wanted to make sure that we can understand that reports in the last few days, said russia is going to concentrate. it's military efforts on the done bass region . one should say, it has so far, no sign is other operations ending. but it is moscow trying to recalibrate its war aims to something it can achieve after having failed to achieve its initial aims. andrei, cartoon of who heads the russian international council, says the countries leadership comp lose no matter what they will need to end this whole story with some kind of victory. what if i can't?

while yes it looks like they're trying to provide some explanations to the public on the day i saw that last big, wherefores, the rest of the military. one blake and talking to some program to me. yeah. trying to explain what's been wrong. all might be trying to say that everything is still according to plan. and now of a say, yes, it was all about done, boss. note about p f r, and we are not going to storm will be seated. it's all about and sort of his teachers and then about from cleansing, of a change in rhetoric, obviously suggested comic and this organization doesn't this confusion well not to punish but confusion that for claire. but to be honest, i also, i do not quite understand how, which i can get out of this throughout claim in some sort of victory. he needs that

he needs to provide some victory to the russian and was a world because it's all about just thinking and, but to be honest, i don't quite see what it might be. because even if say he has some sort of agreement that the landscape, the sanctions i still, that economy is ruined. and for what i don't know about a korean style partition, is that a possibility that he might accept that? ah yes, but again, it will not be a we'll win for, for russia, because he'll raise the stakes. he said, but we need to cleanse ukraine of the nazis and all that we need. then you deal with nate, that is not guessing that so again, i don't quite understand what is and gay g president biden's words in warsaw the weekend, supposedly off the cuff to the fact that putin can't remain in power. how do you

think that will have been understood by the various factions inside the system? back in russia? those who may be thinking that also putins time should be coming to an end. while that is once struck can difference from what we see now from what we sell and falls under 4 g. and when we saw on the stand the station very near back then as a russian broker say, there were some army as a russian security is the all on the same page. they all support future. they believe that there was the right think that everybody got excited and unfortunately a lot of population also believed that was the right thing to do. now is a big shift. so people might still believe that something should be done with ukraine, but they think that the way it was done was not very good one and they blame one

guy was in a position. and i think it's quite significant, very briefly because we are running out of time can put in in the long term. survive this to think i don't think so. i'm sorry, so that's good to have you on the program. thanks very much. thank you. lou with

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ah ah ah, this is dw news coming to line from berlin. ukraine is hosting the leaders of turkey and the un who were there to discuss ways to end the war. this says officials in hockey, the country 2nd largest city report, fresh russian strikes, full civilian area. it's also coming up.