the mediterranean, ah, it's waters connect people of many cultures. siena almost rock and to far do korean drift along with exploring modern lifestyles and mediterranean. where has history left? its traces. reading regal theory, their dreams added to this week on d. w. 6 months and to rush as attack on ukraine, both sides are suffering heavy casualties, yet seem unable to gain the advantage at least until you look behind the front lines. ukraine is increasingly striking. russian targets deep in brush an occupied territory and may have been responsible for huge explosions at an ammunition depot

and an air field in crimea. fresh shelling of europe's biggest to nuclear power plant ad zappa visa is meanwhile raising alarm. on to the point we're asking, as the ukraine war grinds on, can either side to break the stalemate. ah, hello and welcome to to the point. it's a great pleasure to welcome our guests beginning with jessica berlin, who is a political analyst with the german marshall fund. gustav progresso is senior policy fellow and military expert at the berlin office of the european council on foreign relations. and joining us online is my ukrainian colleague roman, contra ranko, who is working for

d down the use russian desk in bon. and let me start by asking yourself as our defense expert, to tell us what you think is happening right now. if you look at the front lines, it appears that both sides essentially are stalled, but that's not the end of the story. is it? well, not, not, not the end, but it's most of it. so the russian offensive and offensive actions have slowed down the haven't stopped now, which is, which is part of the problem, but they have considerably slowed down to have narrowed down on the russians have difficulty sustaining their fires tillery war. but nevertheless, they're still on the offensive on ukrainian side. ah, ye koreans try to spurs our russian forces as much as they can try to force them to split or to maneuver in order to to weaken their strong points or however, ukraine,

on the other hand is not yet strong enough to mount our larger counter fences operatives, counter offensive as compared to tactical bonds or ukraine can capitalize and russian mistakes if they happen. but they can not yet force the russian army to withdraw from an operative direction on their own. for this, they would need more supply of heavy weapons, particularly tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from the west, which is unfortunately, is not yet coming. and we want to come back to that a little bit later. let me go now to my colleague roman and roman one pentagon official said in recent days that they are estimating russian casualties so far over the last 6 months at 728-0000 ukraine has also been sustaining heavy losses. so what does that mean for both sides in terms of their ability to keep on waging this war?

well, both sides as you have rightly put em, have heavy casualties. but russia has much greater resources in human power in tanks and planes. anything you take it, some military hardware and all those figures that you've just mentioned, that they of course include those that russia recruited in the occupied territories in the east and in the south crane, especially in the east, in the don bus region. so they're actually ukrainians who are also fighting on the russian side. most of them probably do it because because they want to but some are forced to we also have reports of that. and it is not clear for how long the war can continue as before. we haven't now reached a point where we are watching this war for 6 months already with which is a very huge war. you have to remember the frontline is more than 1000 kilometers

long, it is very, very long. so, and we have to differentiate the situation because in the east, in don barza roches offensive is very slow, but he's continuing as goes to rightly said in the south. there is kind of a stalemate and in the north of the situation is very rapidly developing again, i think around the city of hockey, which is the 2nd largest city of ukraine. we have every day and heavy, heavy rocket, you know, in new york, it's striking that city and i think there could be a new attempt by russia to intensify the fighting, which will be very bad for you. crane. thank you very much and we're going to take a closer look at some of the reasons that you just mentioned in a moment. but let me 1st ask jessica, when you look at where this conflict stands now, nearly 6 months after it began, what worries you the most? that's a huge question next to the thousands of dead and wounded and millions of ukrainians

displaced. my greatest concern right now is in fact the political stagnation we're seeing in western europe and in the united states. it seems that the nato partners have, have decided to support ukraine with heavy weapons, but only to the point to, to keep them afloat and not to actually pull them fully out of the water. and we need to see more engagement of our political leaders across nato. with our voters to explain to the people why it matters to invest now in ukraine success. and we need also for our political leaders to recognize that we cannot afford to stagnate. that's technician on the battlefield as a result of political stagnation. and if they want to see progress on the battlefield, that means that the political establishments will need to proactively build support

for ukraine and deliver more heavy weapons. now, let us take a closer look now at what's happening behind that long front line that roman mentioned a moment ago. early in the war, russian troops occupied the hare san region in the southern part of ukraine. now, the ukrainian army is said to be preparing a major counter offensive with successes still modest hopes of many are riding high on fire power provided by the united states and strike miss styles fired in quick succession. the u. s. supplied high mas missile launches, give the ukrainian army an advantage at 80 kilometers they reach farther than the average russian artillery, and can thus hit me deposed at a distance. depots have to be moved further away from the front. snowing down supplies for russian troops can ukraine's counter offensive to retake the calf

saw region and the south of the country succeed. growth opportunities attack slow down shelling from the russian side for a period of time although, but the russians are adapting learning the lessons that are high malls and long range weapons are teaching them. unfortunately, the course of the war is not yet turning in our favor. in a sustainable way, it's a process. everything is constantly changing. yeah. so that continues to be a shortage of west and weapons, according to soldiers in the trenches, the southern front, more a patient game than counter offensive. and let me put that question straight away to roman and roman. in fact, ukraine has damaged or destroyed most of the bridges that link house on to the other russian held territories. ukrainian generals have told western media that

they think our son could be liberated by the end of this year. would you say that's right or overly optimistic? i think it's too optimistic at this point because we don't know what will happen in the coming months. if the worst will supply more, more weapons, more heavier weapons, for the ukranian army. and this is crucial if this at the counter offensive will succeed and one will succeed. so you can has a chance to liberate hassan, i'm sure, but i think it will be a longer run, not just by the end of this year. i think it's or something we could talk about early next year, because it is very difficult to liberate such a big city than to hold it. and you create russians. could take it at the beginning of this war and they didn't have much resistance. this is, this is a big question, how this could happened and this is something that ukrainians are still asking us

to ask him themselves. how could russia occupy such a huge territory just in, in a few days. this didn't happen in the east where ukrainian grant has very strong positions. this didn't happens also in the north a. so russia failed around the capital key of but in the south, in this is like her song and later in martyr you pull as well. russia would advance very fast and i think ukrainian will not be able to take them back as quickly as russia occupied them. good stuff. this us supplied. he mars a missile system that was mentioned in our report. could it be a game changer? not only for her son, for that region, but also for the war overall. there is no single weapon system, but is a game changer. a combined arms maneuver force needs a broad set of capabilities to succeed, not just one set of weapons. the 2nd thing is the, the high moss is used in

a very selective narrow role that is providing deep strike. the high mars is the replacement, so to say for an air force to strike targets in the enemy's re take them out. but a dock hi must, for example, is not used in the traditional rocket artillery will oh, role, for example, to stall the russian advances because there are too few launches too few miss hans . those missiles that there are precision guided g. p. s a guided munitions. they strike point targets. they're not like for example, cheap cluster ammunition that just litters alt and o blasts away or an entire area that the enemies using for its attack. ah, this is why it's only very narrow role to use them for, for defending the dom bus. actually the cheap cluster stuff that be kind of get this used to produce and, and this used to use would be much more useful for the ukrainians arm. because you can use it directly in the front against the troops on the the cache on thing

as well. it's flattering open terran, you need tanks to provide direct fire support and you need oh, infantry fighting vehicles, all my personal carriers, whatever kind of armor transportation to bring infantry from village a to will it be otherwise that would just be slaughtered like in the 1st world war 5 would have a machine gun running across the field. so if i can just jump in, does ukraine currently have both the, the tanks and the material, as well as the military capacity. the forces that it would need to launch a major counter offensive in hefa. they have enough soldiers, but they don't have enough heavy weapons. a ukraine's arm has grown a lot or general mobilization. a lot of volunteers are there are, in terms of men and women to fight already much stronger than russians. the russians have more tillery more ammunition, more tanks,

more infantry fighting vehicles. this is why there can substitute lacking soldiers with superior firepower, as long as this balance doesn't change, or you could has problems getting this so can or gene man into, to turn it into results on the battlefield and up. unfortunately, the continue. jessica, let me come back to the point you made earlier about concerns regarding the pasta presidents lensky, ukrainian leaders under these circumstances can afford to play the long game, or do they need to deliver quicker results in order to, to sustain western support. and it's a chicken and egg problem, because in order to deliver quick results, they need more heavy weapons. and, and that's the message coming from cave to berlin to washington. unfortunately, it has yet to achieve the desired result. we're still waiting to see the americans deliver artillery at the level. they can,

we're still waiting for germany to deliver armored vehicles at the level they can and indeed have already committed i and at the end of the day, we need to make clear to the public before this winter sets in that it's in everyone's interest for ukraine. to win this war quickly, beyond the obvious moral, imperative, and humanitarian imperative to end the war to end the bloodshed. also, it will be cheaper for everyone, both in terms of military assistance as well as in terms of reconstruction costs. if the war and the sooner, so, western governments need to recognize that investing now stepping up now to send heavy weapons. this will lower the bill and lower the political as well as financial cost for every one down the road. the roman putin is planning a fake referendum in the house on region 2 legitimate russian control. there is that also

a reason that presidents lensky actually needs to act quickly there to try to disrupt that. well yes, of course ukraine is trying to disrupt that and putting it in his and his army or his government are planning several so called a referendum or not just in her song, but also in the regions of region. the number, the region, which is very interesting, i think, because russia does not control the whole region, is appreciate doesn't control the capital. the city of the bridge itself, which is a very important industrial city in ukraine, not just because of the nuclear power plant nearby. but in general, it is very important for you crane, but it is still under ukrainian control and are on we haven't seen a substantial russian advances around that city. and they could easily conduct such a referendum, probably in the city of or in the region of landscape which they control nearly completely or internet square. they've been for 8 years,

but they don't do that or they are maybe slower. they're. i think they are trying to move faster in the east because they want to somehow legitimate, or legitimize their control of that nuclear power plant in a good are in a preacher region. because it's, it's very important. it's very big. and we're going to go a little bit later. it is apple. yes. yeah. but let us move on. now to the russian occupied crimea and peninsula annexed by russia. in 2014 president lensky demands that it should be restored to ukraine. a goal that appeared almost illusory until mysterious explosions at russia basis in crimea. the most recent hit was an ammunition depot. according to moscow, this was an act of sabotage. here speaks of a master stroke by ukrainian armed forces. earlier there had been heavy detonations at the saki air base. russian accounts implied an accident. however,

satellite images show several destroyed russian fighter. so again, let me go straight to our military expert, go staff. what is happening here? and what do you think the impact of these strikes deep in crimea is likely to be? well is of course are hard to, to establish a clear picture what has happened and tell it with certainty. but the attack on saki airbase, which was quite a remarkable thing we saw on the satellite pictures, you saw this big craters, so that means an underground explosion. you also saw the explosion that saki up the very dark out a lot of dirt in her, in the flames that concurs with the picture of an underground explosions. now saboteurs would need to gain access to each and every of the one of the bunkers and at least 3 of them are detonated to detonate charges inside at 2 o'clock in the afternoon,

which is very unlikely. and no shots fired on the base. so the guest there is that it's an ukrainian develop ballistic miss. i lot of calls has the speed and the penetration capabilities to around it's war hurt into the bunker and then detonate there, which would lead to exact these kind of explosions, the new one. so d d ammunition table in the vicinity of john coy that detonated this one might have been the work of special forces saboteurs because the ammunition there was thought basically a lot littering around or in on the train station. and of course, if the ammunition is thought over drowned, you just have to hit it with something that unites it. and boom, very go. so what's the significance of that in a word? in a word is that of course the ukrainians have a much better deep strike capability than the russians have fought their hat. and you see that also by russia increasing their security both air defense but also

guards and sort of physical security around facilities. india here and that'll school's forces are for the dispersion of assets and forces. all these infantry you need to golf breeches, railroad stations for such are you concerned them into baltimore, or all the hold spots for you would need them just because the rule of american intelligence has come under increasing scrutiny with russia, accusing white the white house of supplying targeting information to a cubes for its long range strikes. do you think that's the case and is that risky? and could we even be seeing some undisclosed secret us weapons at work here? i wouldn't worry too much about that. the american secret services and military have been supporting ukraine from the beginning of the war. american intelligence warned ukraine about the pending invasion, even before it all began. so for,

for the kremlin and to reacts and be upset that american intelligence is supporting ukrainian intelligence. it's, it's a nonstarter, we already know this. it's not a secret. i think i, it's actually an encouraging sign to show that the ukrainian military is able to act on the intelligence that they themselves as well as that their allies gather their showing operational capacity and success. and this is really what's worrying the russians, not the fact that they're that the ukrainians are perhaps getting satellite imagery from the americans. roman. how worried should the russians be about ukrainian galleria fighters, essentially called partisans? we heard good stuff talking about the role of saboteurs, possibly in these explosions in crimea, who's organizing the partisans. and what's the goal here? because clearly the numbers are not sufficient to actually oust the occupiers.

well, we do not have enough information, which is of course, very secretive and a very special information, very sensitive information for the ukrainian government. that is why key of is major is silent to that. would have seen so far were some are minor attacks in, in russian occupied cities which were newly occupied since the start of the big, big war in february, in smaller towns. we've seen that are we now could assume that they, there might be partisans involved in the crimea, and we do not still still have confirmation to that. it is possible, but i wouldn't on overestimated if, if at all, in, in the crimea. i would say it's on a small scale because of that. and in, so i have been under russian control for 8 years and ross and of course use their time to search for ukrainian partisans and to take them out of the arrest them or

kill them. so i would expect that we could see more of a partisan movement in the occupied regions in the east and in the south of ukraine . finally, let us take a trip to one more danger zone that has been raising concern. the situation around this apparition, nuclear power plant in southern ukraine could create risk far beyond the region occupied by russian soldiers since march. it is once again being shelled and this is a dangerous pond in this drawn out conflict. a projectile hit close to that region 6 reactors. moscow claims the ukranian army is shelling, europe's largest nuclear facility with drones. heavy artillery and rocket launchers, keys claims russian troops or targeting the security infrastructure of the power plant. they occupy miss using it for attacks and tara on the surrounding area.

would you register any radiation leakage in south regia could affect countries of the european union, re hurry, bull, ga kareem and countries further afield. every thing depends on the direction and strength of the windy. according to experts, the wind and the region blows mainly to the south and east. thus in a worst case scenario, it would also affect russia. the head of the international atomic energy agency said they were playing with fire. fulton warned of the danger of nuclear catastrophe. and as demanding inspectors are given access. how dangerous is the situation and zapper asia and let me put that question straight away to a roman. how dangerous is it? this is dangerous, but i wouldn't say it is extremely dangerous because i think russians are not

insane. they know if anything serious happens, then they will be also suffering because crimea russian occupied company is not far away and russia is not far away. so i think they are pursuing hit 2 goals. one is to put pressure on the west because the west is very much afraid of a nuclear catastrophe in ukraine. and 2nd is to cut your crane off from the land, which is very important for the ukranian engine energy supply. and for ukraine earning money because ukraine is selling its energy to the west. if that nuclear plant is under russian control, or if the russians run it down, which is possible, then ukraine will lose a lot of money and it will have to reorganize its own power grid. this have both sides are disappearing. who's actually behind the recent shelling of chaper each year? russia has hundreds of forces around did this nuclear power plant? why would they endanger their own men? will russia uses the ppo plan, 1st and foremost as a nomination taper,

because the narrative, the ukrainians, don't strike it at full, full speed because of the danger of leakage, the cetera. ok that's, that's why it is a nomination tape or however that said, are actually the, the kind of fighting and shelling is not the greatest concern. i heard from that the reactors are fairly well protected by thick concrete. you would really need special ammunition to penetrate that. i a kind of, or of course artillery shell will not cause them to detonate, or 2 calls a new channel. what could be the case? is that and what is the real danger? is that russian occupying forces inhibit the normal technicians in the reactor to make their duties and, and sort of have their regularly safety procedures. russian soldiers might be drunk . russian commanders might use the discipline of the troops and whatever they're going to do that the really, it's mike with a interest and a to link. you're gonna cut you off there to ask our title question one more time.

jessica can either side break the stalemate. you cream can, if they get more heavy weapons. now, thank you very much. thanks to all of you for being with us today. thank you also to bond to roman for joining us on line and to all of you out there. thanks for being with

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with the c w. news line from berlin, ukraine's loaded mirrors. the lensky holds talks with the leaders of turkey and the united nations. turkey's rep type on warrens, again another chernobyl with the safety of europe. the largest nuclear power plant at stake also on the program.